Bismarckian Nazi Germany

[GBW]

The year is 1887 and William I is Kaiser. Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, when he has occasion to, is able to look upon Germany's, and his own, achievements with pleasure. Germany has been unified under his watch, domestic reforms have turned the Fatherland into an economic powerhouse and there has even been acquisition of German colonies and spheres of influence. Diplomatically, he has effectively isolated France with the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy and the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia completed that same year. Life, he's able to tell himself, is good.

Then, inexplicably, Bismarck one day awakens to find himself in the life of another man with a few memories of a recent past and some recent history. To his startlement, he finds himself in the year 1933 and he now inhabits the body of one Adolf Hitler who has recently been voted dictatorial powers by the Reichstag. He's even more startled, not to mention incensed, when he discovers that all his hard work was brought to ruin by William's unbalanced grandson Wilhelm when he became Kaiser by his alienating Russia and Britain and dragging Germany into a Great War in which he arrayed most of the world against the Fatherland. Even worse, Wilhelm lost that war and France was able to exact a terrible vengeance indeed for the Franco-Prussian War and Bismarck's efforts since.

But now, Bismarck realizes, he is now Chancellor and Kaiser in one, or Fuhrer as these so called National Socialists insist on calling him. Sure, the Fatherland is in a weak position with this economic depression, a weak military and with France and Britain looming to the west and Russia-- wait, the Soviet Union as those Communists insist on calling it-- to the east. But, Bismarck thinks to himself as he squares Hitler's shoulders, I think I am up to the challenge.

What happens now?

[MerryPrankster]

Well, the Nazi-Soviet Pact looks vaguely like a latter-day Reinsurance Treaty to me. I think Bismarck would negotiate something like that and use it to restore Germany's borders in the East, then crush France per OTL.

After that...

I don't see Bismarck-Hitler launching Barbarossa. He might be tempted to slap Mussolini down for being unstable, and perhaps grab South Tyrol while he's at it. I don't know whether he'd want a long occupation of France for security/revenge purposes or simply saddle France with another huge load of reparations.

[Glen]

Bismarck would be able to wield his power quite well, much as he did in his own time, at least initially. His first priority would be to rebuild German arms and somehow reclaim the Danzig corridor. While I doubt he would try to do anything about the rampant anti-semitism in the party, I suspect he would try to ignore and downplay it as much as possible as a distraction from the real work at hand.

Bismarck was a strong believer in monarchy, but with the failures of Wilhelm II staring him in the face, I doubt he would move to reinstate him as monarch, though he might consider Wilhelm's son as a possibility (who was also an avid Nazi if memory serves).

The real problem for Bismarck would be to figure a way to stay in power. He was not the charismatic leader that Hitler was, and could not rally the same sort of support and fanaticism through oratory. However, he might have enough time before this became obvious to forge new alliances within the party and execute a number of purges to remove threats to his regime.

One thing....when the time comes to frame Poland as an aggressor in a war, Bismarck will likely be more effective at the job, given his previous experience in this sort of thing. But will it be enough to keep France and the UK out?

[Archangel Michael]

(who was also an avid Nazi if memory serves).

Are we talking about Ludwig Ferdinand (Louis Ferdinand)? He hated Hitler and the Nazis. He was even involved in the July 20th Plot to assassinate Hitler. His brother, Wilhelm, I have no idea about. Until 1941, Wilhelm II is still around.

[Glen]

Are we talking about Ludwig Ferdinand (Louis Ferdinand)? He hated Hitler and the Nazis. He was even involved in the July 20th Plot to assassinate Hitler. His brother, Wilhelm, I have no idea about. Until 1941, Wilhelm II is still around.

Good question. Actually, I think I am recalling August Wilhelm, who was reported to be quite a fan of Hitler, even stating, "Where a Hitler leads, a Hohenzollern can follow." Or something like that. Also, the Crown Prince Friedrich Wilhelm had Nazi leanings early on, though he appears to have become a bit disenchanted as did Hitler with the Hohenzollerns. But with Bismarck taking over Hitler's body as early as 1933, there would likely be no such schism, and one of the more pro-nazi sons of Wilhelm could have been looked on with favor by Bismarck/Hitler.

You are absolutely right about Louis Ferdinand. And many other of the Hohenzollerns were anti-nazi as well.

[Max Sinister]

What did Wilhelm II think about Bismarck (whom he once had fired) when he got older?

"While I doubt he would try to do anything about the rampant anti-semitism in the party, I suspect he would try to ignore and downplay it as much as possible as a distraction from the real work at hand."

Ignoring the Reichskristallnacht? I don't know what exactly he'd think, but he'd certainly have an opinion about it. I hope he'd oppose it.

[Glen]

What did Wilhelm II think about Bismarck (whom he once had fired) when he got older?

No clue. But I can guess what Bismarck will think of Wilhelm II once he reads of his reign and abdication....and it won't be very good.

Ignoring the Reichskristallnacht? I don't know what exactly he'd think, but he'd certainly have an opinion about it. I hope he'd oppose it.

I don't know what Bismarck thought about anti-semitism. However, I don't believe it would have been an agenda he would pursue, being much more focused on revitalizing the Reich. The Nazis would still push an anti-Jewish agenda, but I see Bismarck/Hitler dragging his feet on those issues, and diverting them towards other matters. Hitler really was rabidly anti-semitic, but Bismarck does not appear to be. Therefore we are unlikely to see anything like Kristallnacht (years later than this POD, in 1938) so long as Bismarck remains in power. The problem might be that Bismarck won't be Nazi enough or charismatic enough to keep the position Hitler had managed.

On the other hand, perhaps Bismarck finds a new power base. I can see him doing a 180 of sorts, allying himself with the military and his old Junkers roots and purging the more fanatical Nazis. Again, the question becomes, "Can Bismarck maintain the position Hitler has created?" I think so, but it might be a dicey thing.

[Thande]

Bismarck strikes me as the sort to use every tool at his disposal. Therefore he might try to tone down Nazi anti-Semitism to keep the Jewish scientists and other intellectuals that fled to Britain and America in OTL.

[Glen]

Bismarck strikes me as the sort to use every tool at his disposal. Therefore he might try to tone down Nazi anti-Semitism to keep the Jewish scientists and other intellectuals that fled to Britain and America in OTL.

Agreed. However, his overiding goal will be the restoration of Germany. He will do everything he can to ensure that. Anti-semitism was a key part of the Nazi agenda, but to Bismarck it will not. If he must pander at first to the Nazis on this to stay in power, he will, but he will not focus on it, instead spending all his time and energy on rebuilding the Reich. However, if the Nazis crazed theories begin to be seen by Bismarck as getting in the way of restoring Germany, he will seek a new power base. Of course, if the Nazis see a 'Hitler' who is no longer the champion of the party, he may end up being the one removed from power.

Overall, I would say that life for a Jew in Bismarckian Nazi Germany won't be comfortable, but it will be much less official in tone. Expect to see the whack jobs in the Nazi heirarchy purged in one way or the other. Bismarck likely will seek the favor of the military and the Junkers, essentially fulfilling the false hopes that the conservatives had in OTL Hitler. The main question will be whether Bismarck can do this before some of the Nazis or someone else seek to remove him. He will be better than Hitler in the international arena, but will not be able to inspire the masses at home like Hitler.

Another question. When will Bismarck retake the Danzig Corridor, and can he do so without triggering WWII?

Perhaps not. Likely Bismarck will start WWII much as Hitler did. However, the course of the war would likely diverge at Dunkirk. Bismarck has no romantic notions of a natural alliance with the UK, and he will take the BEF before they can be evacuated. Possibly this will lead to a settlement between the UK and Germany in order for the UK to get their army back.

Bismarck will take back the lost territories of Germany from WWI, and he would probably station troops again in France for a time, but expect the Vichy government to be given all of France (sans Alsace and Lorraine) back to rule.

Don't think Bismarck was interested in overseas colonies, so I expect he will not make demands in this area, relieving the allies.

Bismarck won't make the mistake of invading Russia, no matter how distasteful he finds the Soviets and Stalin. Instead expect the non-aggression pact to hold (unless Stalin decides to attack Germany! Probably not, however, since they didn't do so while Germany was preoccupied in France in OTL).

Would there be an Anschloss between Germany and Austria with Bismarck at the helm? Probably not initially. He would be more interested in restoring all the old Prussian possessions first. Maybe after the brief War of 1939 (truncated WWII), given the popular sentiment in Austria for a unification, and Bismarck being less concerned about Austrian dominance given its much reduced status since WWI, we might see Austria joining.

BTW, I doubt Bismarck would go after the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia. Just not important enough to the Reich to antagonize the other European Powers.


The image below represents what I imagine Bismarckian Germany circa 1942 might look like.

http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/attachment.php?attachmentid=&stc=1

[Thande]

Interesting. Follow up with Britain, Germany, France being forced into an uncomfortable alliance against the Soviet threat?

Also, what happens to fascist Italy and Spain with Bismarck at the helm in Germany?

Not to mention Japan.

[Imajin]

He probably restores the monarchies of the nation, and, as has been said, focusing on restoring Prussian territory before the other seized territories (Which I think is only Alsace-Lorraine)..
He probably cultivates the Austrofascist Government as an ally, so I don't believe Dolfuss will be assassinated. I think that Bismarck may be able to convince the West to allow him to reclaim lands from Poland- There will be no such Czechoslovak agreement, perhaps Poland will be "sacrificed" (Since Bismarck probably leaves alot of it alone) instead?

[Glen]

He probably restores the monarchies of the nation, and, as has been said, focusing on restoring Prussian territory before the other seized territories (Which I think is only Alsace-Lorraine)..
He probably cultivates the Austrofascist Government as an ally, so I don't believe Dolfuss will be assassinated. I think that Bismarck may be able to convince the West to allow him to reclaim lands from Poland- There will be no such Czechoslovak agreement, perhaps Poland will be "sacrificed" (Since Bismarck probably leaves alot of it alone) instead?

Perhaps. He wouldn't go after Czechoslovakia, but would that be enough to get the western allies to roll over on Poland. And could he do it without having the Soviets getting involved.

Japan would basically be on its own in this tl, so it might tread a little more cautiously, especially with Britain not tied up in a lengthy European war. Then again, maybe there is only a Pacific war, with a bloody invasion of the home islands at the end (no a-bomb program in this tl, that occured in response to the German threat, and Bismarckian Germany will not be as threatening in that regard).

A Hohenzollern probably will be returned to the head of Germany eventually if Bismarck pulls it all off, but it won't be Wilhelm II. And Bismarck would this time likely ensure he remained the power behind the thrown, the loyal Shogun to his Emperor.

He'd keep relations on an even keel with Fascist Italy. Doubt he will want to get involved in the Spanish Civil War, but the Soviets might still sell weapons, so possibly the Socialist/Royalists win this time. Bismarck doesn't like socialists, but he supports monarchies, so its a bit of a wash and too removed from Germany's vital interests for him to take an interest.

So, bottom line...brief war to retake former Prussian territory, possibly extending to a rapid attack in France that then leads to a quick suing for peace. Likely Austria joins Germany, but that is about the extent of German expansion, and Europe settles down. Authoritarian government with monarchy restored, but some vestiges of civil society remaining. Could mellow out into a more moderate German nation.

Possibly no war in the Pacific if Japan is too leary of taking on the full might of both US and Britain, or a bloodier Pacific war with a full invasion of the home islands.

[Othniel]

Japan had great anamity towards the US, and war between the two after the Russo-Japaness war seems inevitable. You may not see the US get involved in the European war at all.

[Glen]

Okay, so maybe a brief war in Europe with Germany successful and then a peace, possibly with UK, France, and Germany growing closer together to resist the Soviet Union in a new form of cold war. Spain is a neutral socialist/monarchy. Italy is a Fascist/monarchy, but without German support like OTL, their aspirations don't go far. Pacific war plays out with Japan having to fight the US and an undestracted Britain. Bloody war in the Home Islands. Win still to US & allies.

So what about the post war era?

[GBW]

Okay, so maybe a brief war in Europe with Germany successful and then a peace, possibly with UK, France, and Germany growing closer together to resist the Soviet Union in a new form of cold war. Spain is a neutral socialist/monarchy. Italy is a Fascist/monarchy, but without German support like OTL, their aspirations don't go far. Pacific war plays out with Japan having to fight the US and an undestracted Britain. Bloody war in the Home Islands. Win still to US & allies.

So what about the post war era?
Assuming Bismarckian Germany takes the Polish Corridor, I can see the rump Poland being made subservient to Germany. Stalin is eventually going to want to invade somewhere, and it might be Finland, the Baltic States, or Poland. I doubt it will be Poland, since that will bring the USSR into direct conflict with Germany, and the Baltic States seem as if they would be an issue that Germany, Britain and France might take badly. So the USSR invades Finland and, after suffering humiliating setbacks, takes the territory they did in OTL's Winter War. This prods Britain, France, Germany and Poland to form an anti-Soviet alliance, and the Baltic States soon hop aboard. Czechoslovakia and Hungary might also join, while Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey try to maintain neutrality; neutrality may be forced upon Finland.

The ATL Cold War likely plays out in China where the Allies try to support the Nationalists, the Soviets support Mao and the Communists, and Japan continues waging its own campaign until it gets knocked flat by the US and Britain. US occupies the Home Islands while Britain guarantees the independence of a newly independent Korea and uses it as another base to support the Nationalists. The Soviets will likely try to support independence movements in European colonies, especially British India, which will likely stir up trouble. How things end up in China and beyond that is anyone's guess.

[Riain]

I think Bismark would see Europe at his mercy in a way that it wasn't in the 1870s. All of eastern Europe was weak and fragmented and the MittelEuropa territories could be gobbled up without any real danger, especially with the Soviet alliance. France could still be beaten, a familiar theme with Bis.

[LowLevelFunctionary]

Bismarck seems to appear here as a warmonger, when in reality this was quite the opposite. Bismarck, throughout his time as Chancellor, only ever used war as a last resort. The Austro-Prussian war is a good example of this. Bismarck is the sort of man that would use all available diplomatic means available to him. If none of these worked, only then would he use force. A strong army would be kept in order to keep this option open.

Let's also remember that he was a Junker and a Conservative.

[stevep]

Guys

I would tend to agree with LowLevelFunctionary that there are a lot of assumptions about Bismarck's probable path. I suspect he would want to restore German domination in Europe and regain the lost lands, especially the Prussian lands in the east. [As he saw himself as more Prussian than German].

However wondering how successful he would be as a military leader if assuming a similar TL to the historical. With better management the German economy should be in a markedly better condition. Also a less openly aggressive Germany will probably mean improved economics across Europe. However Hitler historically rearmed from a very low level at an insane rate, crippling much of the economy if he hadn't proved so lucky. Bismarck could therefore have markedly less military strength if he clashes with France in ~1940. [Although the western powers may also be less developed militarily as their re-armament was largely directed by responding to the fascist powers, especially Germany. Probably still a naval race as, apart from the initial trigger of the Deutschland’s, which had already occurred, this had little relevance to Germany].

Most of all however would he have intervened to support something as radical as Manstein's attack in the west. Without that intervention, and the chance loss of plans for the initial attack, the campaign in the west might have followed the initial, far more conservative plan. In which case it would have been far bloodier and attritional and could go either way.

In general I think Germany and the world will do better with Bismarck at the helm of Germany. He won't be as erratic as Hitler so likely to see a lot more stability. Also, having seen the history of WWI especially he may decide that the lost territories are not worth risking another ruinous conflict. [On the other hand, Hitler gained at least grudging acceptance of his moves until he occupied the rump Bohemia in March 39 as until that time he only really took control of areas with native German populations. A far more skilled diplomat such as Bismarck, with the full control he lacked in his own time, could easily have gone as far. In that situation and without the occupation of Bohemia, triggering the Anglo-French guarantee for Polish borders it might have been possible to get a negotiated agreement on the corridor. After all, with Germany looking far less threatening I suspect attention would be directed far more toward Stalin and the Soviets. Especially if thanks to less German intervention a pro-Communism group came out on top after Franco's coup attempt in Spain].

Steve


Steve

[HurganPL]

This prods Britain, France, Germany and Poland to form an anti-Soviet alliance,Except if Stalin isn't dumb, and simply makes an offer to re-unite Polish people and territories, destroying such possibility.
Also Bismarck hated Poles as Hitler hated Jews, so he foremost would try to exterminate them and destroy Poland.

and he will take the BEF before they can be evacuated. Hmm, would forces going after BEF be vulnerable to artillery from British navy ?

[Riain]

Hitler avoided war and made great gains for years, I'd imagine Bismark could too. Looking at German gains until April 1941 there were very few actual campaigns considering the number of polities Hitler incorporated into his sphere of control/influence.

[Glen]

Ah, good to see this old chestnut resurrected. It's one of the very first maps I did here at AH.com.