What effect would assasinating Bin Laden have?

[Dan Reilly The Great]

This has been inspired by the somali al-shabab assasination thread in chat.

It has been often noted when discussing 9/11 and the series of events which lead to that horrible day that the US had several near misses during the late 90's when they tried to assasinate Osama Bin Laden. Although it is not clearly stated, it seems often implied that if any of these attempts had succeeded that 9/11 would have been prevented. However it has occurred to me that simply killing Binladen is not enough to completely avert 9/11 or a similar attack. So what short and long term effects would successfully killing Osama Bin Laden have had on Al Queda, the Taliban, and the world at large? Would the US still have suffered a major terrorist attack at the turn of the century?

[The Kiat]

The terrorist would swear revenge, and go on some immediate impulse attack. After that, somebody else would rise and take over the organization. Does anybody know if that terrorist is even still alive?

[Wolfpaw]

Far better now to take him alive. If he were to be killed in combat or by an assassin, he becomes a martyr.

[Glass Onion]

I think taking Bin Laden alive is next to impossible, unfortunately.

[lothaw]

Well if Bush annouced the capture of Bin Laden right before the last election and indicated that McCain was somehow involved, that could turn the tide.

[mowque]

Well if Bush annouced the capture of Bin Laden right before the last election and indicated that McCain was somehow involved, that could turn the tide.

I don't think so.

[Matt Wiser]

Taking out UBL isn't the issue in preventing attacks: it's taking out the brains of Al-Qaida, and that's Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor who was involved in Sadat's assassination on the periphery (he did several years in the slammer for that), and widely considered the brains of AQ. UBL is more the spiritual leader of Al-Qaida, but if you take Zawahiri out, you've liquidated his key planner and thinker, as well as UBL's second-in-command. The East Africa Embassies, the U.S.S. Cole, and 9-11 were all planned by Zawahiri, so he's got a lot to answer for. Getting UBL is important, no question about it, but if you want to prevent attacks, putting Zawahiri six feet under is more important.

[The Kiat]

Far better now to take him alive. If he were to be killed in combat or by an assassin, he becomes a martyr.


And do what? A show trial? While he's in captivity, his goons will go all over the world and take Americans hostage, demanding his release. Better to simply eliminate him and save us the trouble. Besides, this is somebody who falls under the mantra; killing those who badly need it.

[Riain]

The whole point of AQ is its decentralised nature, there is no real leader or mastermind who can knock out the whole organisation. Drilling OBL would be a good thing but any attack in the wings wouldn't be stopped because of it.

[HJ Tulp]

And do what? A show trial? While he's in captivity, his goons will go all over the world and take Americans hostage, demanding his release. Better to simply eliminate him and save us the trouble. Besides, this is somebody who falls under the mantra; killing those who badly need it.

It would be even better to capture OBL and then just don't tell anyone about it. Could cause alot of confusion in AQ as well. Hell, I wouldn't be suprised if this is the situation of now.

[Geekhis Khan]

Taking out UBL isn't the issue in preventing attacks: it's taking out the brains of Al-Qaida, and that's Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor who was involved in Sadat's assassination on the periphery (he did several years in the slammer for that), and widely considered the brains of AQ. UBL is more the spiritual leader of Al-Qaida, but if you take Zawahiri out, you've liquidated his key planner and thinker, as well as UBL's second-in-command. The East Africa Embassies, the U.S.S. Cole, and 9-11 were all planned by Zawahiri, so he's got a lot to answer for. Getting UBL is important, no question about it, but if you want to prevent attacks, putting Zawahiri six feet under is more important.

This is the case as I see it. UBL is the poster boy and the main recruiter. Take him out and AQ loses it's main recruitment and propaganda tool. Perhaps longterm membership suffers until a new camera-friendly goon appears, but in the short term UBL's "martyrdom" is a major recruitment tool and maybe becomes the "impetus" for *9/11. Gotta get Zawahiri and the other brains to make the bigger difference. Even then, though, AQ had/has some powerful and evil minds.

[DireSituation]

It would be even better to capture OBL and then just don't tell anyone about it. Could cause alot of confusion in AQ as well. Hell, I wouldn't be suprised if this is the situation of now.
Hell, I would be surprised if that weren't the case.

[HJ Tulp]

Hell, I would be surprised if that weren't the case.

And neither would I.

[Geekhis Khan]

As an old friend of mine who once worked intelligence used to say, "I'd rather face a ghost than a martyr...that's all I have to say about that." :cool: