raharris1973
April 9th, 2005, 06:38 PM
My question is this, will any other great power provide the states bordering Israel with subsidized military aid and advisors? Would Russian, China or India do it any time over the next fifty years?
Currently the US subsidizes Egypt and Jordan, but because it also subsidizes Israel, it's not designed to support confrontation. This is in contrast to the USSR, which from 1955 to the end of the Cold War gave Syria and Egypt (till the 70s) major support while not asking them to moderate any war aims. Will anybody revive that old Soviet policy?
I do think we will continue to arms sales to the front-line states, but on a cash, not subsidy basis. And, the front-line states don't have the oil revenue to afford what more distant states like Saudi, Iraq and Iran can. Luckily for the Israelis, none of the states it shares a border with is an oil giant.
So, on the one-hand, there not much profit for an outside great power to subsidize Israel's potential opponents. On the other hand, its a great political cheap shot, if you're hoping to use your support of those states to gain indirect influence over the oil producers as well. Even if over the next fifty years the USA moderates its pro-Israel stance, I don't see it ever being able to outbid powers that lack pro-Israel domestic constituencies in pursuing a strategy like this. IE, the US would never subsidize Arab forces designed for confrontation, no questions asked, as the USSR did.
Thoughts?
The answer to this question is almost the same as the answer to the question - will we see real geopolitical rivalry in the world, or will the entire rest of the industrialized world continue on its current course or locally-focused, pragmatic and low-risk policies.
Currently the US subsidizes Egypt and Jordan, but because it also subsidizes Israel, it's not designed to support confrontation. This is in contrast to the USSR, which from 1955 to the end of the Cold War gave Syria and Egypt (till the 70s) major support while not asking them to moderate any war aims. Will anybody revive that old Soviet policy?
I do think we will continue to arms sales to the front-line states, but on a cash, not subsidy basis. And, the front-line states don't have the oil revenue to afford what more distant states like Saudi, Iraq and Iran can. Luckily for the Israelis, none of the states it shares a border with is an oil giant.
So, on the one-hand, there not much profit for an outside great power to subsidize Israel's potential opponents. On the other hand, its a great political cheap shot, if you're hoping to use your support of those states to gain indirect influence over the oil producers as well. Even if over the next fifty years the USA moderates its pro-Israel stance, I don't see it ever being able to outbid powers that lack pro-Israel domestic constituencies in pursuing a strategy like this. IE, the US would never subsidize Arab forces designed for confrontation, no questions asked, as the USSR did.
Thoughts?
The answer to this question is almost the same as the answer to the question - will we see real geopolitical rivalry in the world, or will the entire rest of the industrialized world continue on its current course or locally-focused, pragmatic and low-risk policies.