Denmark not neutral during WW1?

[Euroman26]

Lets say in OTL the british in 1800 assulted Denmark and stole the danish navy. But what if they hadn't been to do that? What if Napoleon had keeped his word and protected Denmark? This leads to Denmark not going bankrupt in 1800 and it keep her navy and colonial presence in the caribian and West Africa. Come 1848 the french protected Denmark against German assult and Denmark keep Southern-Slesvigia. By the 1860 Denmark is not weak in a European perspective and the british and the danes strike peacedeal by 1875 afterwhich there is a Denmark-British-French alliance.
Come 1914 Denmark joins the allies against the axis. How does Denmark do as part of Allies?

[Iori]

It may well get Schleswig-Holstein in the aftermath of the war, that's all I can think of ATM.

[Euroman26]

It may well get Schleswig-Holstein in the aftermath of the war, that's all I can think of ATM.

A millitarized Schleswig-Holstein maybe? Where like the Thula base in Greenland in post WW2 the danes allow the british/french to build a base as a permanant thorn in Germany side? Imagine 1919/1920 danish troops together brits and french being deployed into Hamburg to force to the german to increase its Versailles payments?

[Iori]

A millitarized Schleswig-Holstein maybe? Where like the Thula base in Greenland in post WW2 the danes allow the british/french to build a base as a permanant thorn in Germany side? Imagine 1919/1920 danish troops together brits and french being deployed into Hamburg to force to the german to increase its Versailles payments?

Perhaps so, it would certainly make for an interesting WW2.

[Euroman26]

Perhaps so, it would certainly make for an interesting WW2.

It sure would :D

[Valdemar II]

The most likely way we get a Danish prencence in WWI, is if the British try to invade Germany through Pommern (there was such a plan in OTL). That would mean that they had to occupie Copenhagen to ensure a safe rute to Pommern*. It would been a complete disaster, Copenhagen had brand new fortification, based on defense against a naval invasion, so we would likely see a second Gallipoli. Of course when the central powers lose, Denmark lose Iceland and Faroe to UK, and the Virgin Isles and Greenland to USA (Greenland may go to Canada). While not gaining North Schleswig.

*Denmark while neutral was a de facto German ally/vassal, and had place mines in both Storebaelt and Oeresund to stop allied transition.

[I Blame Communism]

Lets say in OTL the british in 1800 assulted Denmark and stole the danish navy. But what if they hadn't been to do that? What if Napoleon had keeped his word and protected Denmark? This leads to Denmark not going bankrupt in 1800 and it keep her navy and colonial presence in the caribian and West Africa. Come 1848 the french protected Denmark against German assult and Denmark keep Southern-Slesvigia. By the 1860 Denmark is not weak in a European perspective and the british and the danes strike peacedeal by 1875 afterwhich there is a Denmark-British-French alliance.
Come 1914 Denmark joins the allies against the axis. How does Denmark do as part of Allies?

But the butterflies!

Perhaps so, it would certainly make for an interesting WW2.

But the butterflies! *writhes*

The most likely way we get a Danish prencence in WWI, is if the British try to invade Germany through Pommern (there was such a plan in OTL). That would mean that they had to occupie Copenhagen to ensure a safe rute to Pommern*. It would been a complete disaster, Copenhagen had brand new fortification, based on defense against a naval invasion, so we would likely see a second Gallipoli. Of course when the central powers lose, Denmark lose Iceland and Faroe to UK, and the Virgin Isles and Greenland to USA (Greenland may go to Canada). While not gaining North Schleswig.

*Denmark while neutral was a de facto German ally/vassal, and had place mines in both Storebaelt and Oeresund to stop allied transition.

This sounds far more plausible. Denmark might still get NS, though. Burgenland is a potential precedent.

[C.Cain]

France protects Denmark against the British in 1800 and everything just works out as OTL until 1860? That's hardly plausible.

France intervenes against Prussia in 1860 and everything works out just as it did OTL (again) until WWI? Again, that's hardly plausible.


So I'm with I Blame Communism here. Think of the butterflies.

[Euroman26]

The most likely way we get a Danish prencence in WWI, is if the British try to invade Germany through Pommern (there was such a plan in OTL). That would mean that they had to occupie Copenhagen to ensure a safe rute to Pommern*. It would been a complete disaster, Copenhagen had brand new fortification, based on defense against a naval invasion, so we would likely see a second Gallipoli. Of course when the central powers lose, Denmark lose Iceland and Faroe to UK, and the Virgin Isles and Greenland to USA (Greenland may go to Canada). While not gaining North Schleswig.

*Denmark while neutral was a de facto German ally/vassal, and had place mines in both Storebaelt and Oeresund to stop allied transition.

I know but if Denmark had been an ally of the UK and France during WW1 and thusly have been part of kicking Germany in the teeth during WW1. Then we would have had a very different Denmark today :)

[Euroman26]

France protects Denmark against the British in 1800 and everything just works out as OTL until 1860? That's hardly plausible.

France intervenes against Prussia in 1860 and everything works out just as it did OTL (again) until WWI? Again, that's hardly plausible.


So I'm with I Blame Communism here. Think of the butterflies.

Maybe I have read to much Harry T :D

[I Blame Communism]

I know but if they Denmark had been an ally of the UK and France during WW1 and thusly have been part of kicking Germany in the teeth during WW1. Then we would have had a very different Denmark today :)

A) Any PoD removing Denmark from the German sphere has major butterflies and therefore WW1 is changed even if it happens.

B) I'd imagine German could occupy Jutland in like five minutes, and that was a barrel of laughs for Serbia and Belgium. Is another strip of Schleswig which is actally inhabited by Germans worth it?

[Euroman26]

A) Any PoD removing Denmark from the German sphere has major butterflies and therefore WW1 is changed even if it happens.

B) I'd imagine German could occupy Jutland in like five minutes, and that was a barrel of laughs for Serbia and Belgium. Is another strip of Schleswig which is actally inhabited by Germans worth it?

Still It could be possible to make Denmark a more important power in Europe. Isn't it?

[I Blame Communism]

Still It could be possible to make Denmark a more important power in Europe. Isn't it?

I doubt it. Flensburg? Big deal. Never mind the possibility of Germany getting it back at some point through democracy.

[MrP]

What size Danish army/navy are you positing? IOTL the Germans had a significant reserve to cover potential problems, one which was obviously swiftly sent off to the front. Acc. to p.171 of The WWI Databook there was the North Army (which I presume covered the Danish border) of IX Reserve Corps (17th Reserve and 18th Reserve Infantry Divisions) and 4 brigades of Landwehr cavalry. Further replacement formations were, I think I am reading this correctly, all Bavarian: Guards, 4th, 8th, 10th and 19th Ersatz Divisions.

There are some interesting potential outcomes here, including a weakening of the thrust into Belgium or of the left wing, a different German strategic vision - the old Russia first idea, or perhaps even an attack on Denmark at the same time as the invasion of Belgium. Tbh, I would imagine that, if France is still the primary target, plans involving Denmark would not initially involve the conquest of the country, as this would strip troops from the planned war-winning strike into France.

The proximity of Denmark to German naval bases has some very interesting implications in the long run. For instance, a convoy system would be demonstrably vital, given the presence of the HSF's heavy units. A more powerful Danish fleet could also see more advanced harbours. That does depend on Denmark investing in dreadnoughts as opposed to coast defence battleships, though, and I'm not quite sold on that, nor on the willingness of any Danish government to seek to outspend Germany. ;)

[Euroman26]

Haven't thought about the land army. But in my scenario the british never destroy Denmark as a navalpower in 1800. So maybe the Danish navy follows the modernisation up through the 1800s and gets dreadnaught?

[MrP]

Haven't thought about the land army. But in my scenario the british never destroy Denmark as a navalpower in 1800. So maybe the Danish navy follows the modernisation up through the 1800s and gets dreadnaught?

Well, I shan't rehash the above comments about butterflies, but I have to wonder why Denmark would need dreadnoughts. Are you envisaging a larger Danish colonial presence, requiring such ships? You may know that the Dutch Navy was on the cusp of acquiring a force of heavy warships to defend her rich Pacific possessions, when the Great War ruined her plans. I can see Denmark in a similar situation, if she has a need. But I confess I don't have a great deal of knowledge about the Danish Navy during this period beyond that contained in Jane's. It doesn't seem that there is a role for a dreadnought, and it does seem that the money would be better spent on smaller and cheaper vessels.

It is tempting, of course, to argue that because her enemies had dreadnoughts, so should she, but - as was the case with the Dutch Navy - events do not always proceed in the way one's admirals might hope. Against this one can set the example of the Greco-Turkish naval rivalry of this era which saw both sides determined to acquire these battleships for reasons of prestige and "national honour". If you could sketch out a brief history of Denmark ITTL, it would be easier to assess her financial means, her capability to field an army and a navy, and her strategic requirements.

[Euroman26]

Operation Dinner out is calling, but I will return later.

[Bill Cameron]

Denmark in the Entente: Overrun and occupied by Imperial Germany in a day. Portions of the fleet and government-in-exile move to Britain. Danish independence restored at Versailles with territorial concessions by Germany. Hitler invades and occupies Denmark roughly on schedule and occupation is more brutal.

Denmark in the CP: Fleet adds nothing substantial to Imperial Germany's naval strength vis a vis Britain. Army adds nothing substantial to Imperial Germany's military strength vis a vis the Entente powers. Distant blockade is still in place. Jutland-style naval battle takes place somewhat further north. Danish colonial possessions grabbed by various Entente expeditions and are permanently lost at Versailles. Denmark starves under the blockade, experiences a postwar "red" revolution until German freikorps smash it. Possible Danish anschluss with Nazi Germany with allied occupation after the war.

Danish participation in WW1 results in no substantial changes and more dead Danes. Nothing more.


Bill

[Valdemar II]

Denmark in the Entente: Overrun and occupied by Imperial Germany in a day. Portions of the fleet and government-in-exile move to Britain. Danish independence restored at Versailles with territorial concessions by Germany. Hitler invades and occupies Denmark roughly on schedule and occupation is more brutal.

Bill

Unlikely the reasons and technology to the fast occupation of Denmark in WWII doesn't exist yet. While Jutland and Fuen would stand little Chance, Zealand would be nightmare to conquer and would quite likely survive free through the entire war. The Danish army while having obsolete weaponry, was efficient and big (for Denmarks size) and could be modernise fast, while Zealand was a fortress and Copenhagen moreso.

The biggest effect of Denmark on Entente and a free Sealand would be that the Baltic would become a British sea. Which could keep Russia from collapsing.

But I see absolute no realistic reason for Denmark to join them, it would be against 60 years of Danish foreign policy and while being stupid as Hell.

[Euroman26]

I don't understand why its so impossible to imagine that Denmark could have allied themselfs with the UK and France?
Because we were tired of living on the thumb of the wienersnitzel eaters

[Valdemar II]

I don't understand why its so impossible to imagine that Denmark could have allied themselfs with the UK and France?
Because we were tired of living on the thumb of the wienersnitzel eaters

So your POD is that the Danish government is replaced with imbeciles. The problem any Danish government is going to "pro"-German, hell even WWII our government has been that. Germany were our biggest trading partner, it had a much bigger army than us and Germany treatment of the Danish minority was for the times quite excellent (and a lot better than how the Poles and French was treated, because of the close relationship between Denmark and Germany). And if Denmark still have Schleswig-Holstein and we look awy from the butterflies, Denmark would be quite careful not giving Germany a causus belli to invade and take the German speaking areas. There's simply no rationel reason to invade Germany.

And it's Pølsetyskere.

[Bill Cameron]

Unlikely the reasons and technology to the fast occupation of Denmark in WWII doesn't exist yet.


Valdemar II,

My statement that Wilhelmine Germany would overrun Denmark in a day was hyperbole. Zealand however is not a fortress. It's nothing more than a starvation camp because there is no way to supply the army and population trapped there.

With Germany in possession of Jutland there is no way the Entente can sail convoys through the Skagerrak and Kattegat without hideous losses. Germany can station destroyers, submarines, and other light forces all along the peninsula along with placing minefields. A Grand Fleet attempting the clear those passages or shield convoys moving through the same will expose itself to the battles of attrition Germany naval officers hoped for.

Germany would be able to hold Zealand hostage in the hopes that it can lure the Grand Fleet into a defeat by detail. Germany would also be able to easily land on Zealand once the supply situation grows too bleak. In fact knowing that there is no real hope of Entente supplies, Zealand would be more likely to surrender after Germany's blockade is established. Let's say the autumn of 1915 once the Zealand harvest comes in and the Danish government does the math.

Denmark is too small and too exposed to do any real good to either side.

I strongly agree with your statement about the OP's POD being based in the Danish government being replaced by imbeciles.


Bill

[Valdemar II]

Kattegat is incredible lousy submarine territorium, so Germany couldn't starve Zealand out, beside it would quite easy for Danes to place defensive minefields which limited Germanys access to it. Denmark 1914 isn't Denmark 1940, and the necessary technlogy to overrun Zealand wouldn't be created before the 30ties*, while the High Fleet usefullness would be quite limited if the Danes got British support.

When all that is said, Zealand could feed itself.

*unless you had complete naval superiority, which Germany lacked.

[Faeelin]

So your POD is that the Danish government is replaced with imbeciles. The problem any Danish government is going to "pro"-German, hell even WWII our government has been that. Germany were our biggest trading partner, it had a much bigger army than us and Germany treatment of the Danish minority was for the times quite excellent (and a lot better than how the Poles and French was treated, because of the close relationship between Denmark and Germany).

Hrmm. HOw much rationing was there in OTL Denmark during the Great War? I'm trying to see a way for this to butterfly into full military occupation, but I can't imagine the Germans to be that stupid...

[Valdemar II]

Hrmm. HOw much rationing was there in OTL Denmark during the Great War? I'm trying to see a way for this to butterfly into full military occupation, but I can't imagine the Germans to be that stupid...

Some but not much, people had enough basic food in both war, through in WWII even that was rationed, while in WWI only foreign luxury items was rationed (or raplaced with faux products), like coffee, chocolate, rice and most spices. Danes really didn't starve in any of the wars.

[Bill Cameron]

Kattegat is incredible lousy submarine territorium...


Valdemar II,

Not just submarines and not just in the Kattegat either. The Royal Navy would be looking at destroyers, torpedo boats, etc., etc. etc. all based out of Jutland as they were near Zeebruge along with minefields extending further north along the Danish coast out into the North Sea.

... so Germany couldn't starve Zealand out, beside it would quite easy for Danes to place defensive minefields...

Defensive minefields which are in turn covered by German minefields. Danish mines keep the Germans away and German mines keep any help for the Danes away.

Denmark 1914 isn't Denmark 1940, and the necessary technlogy to overrun Zealand wouldn't be created before the 30ties*, while the High Fleet usefullness would be quite limited if the Danes got British support. *unless you had complete naval superiority, which Germany lacked.

Germany already has local naval superiority which the Royal Navy never seriously challenged. That superiority can shifted quite easily from Baltic to North Sea thanks to the Kiel Canal for use against Denmark and portions of it can now even be based in Denmark itself.

No one aside from Fisher or Churchill took the idea of naval expeditions, let alone convoys, into the Baltic seriously. Even sorties by submarines in the OTL didn't occur until 1917 and those will now be suicide with Germany controlling the Skagerrak and Kattegat.

Furthermore, the Royal Navy isn't going to come steaming to Denmark's aid in 1914 because that is precisely what the Germans would want it to do. The RN had shifted from a policy of close blockade to one of distant blockade nearly a decade before specifically to avoid the exact combat conditions running convoys to a besieged Zealand would entail.

When all that is said, Zealand could feed itself.

And the army evacuated there? And all the refugees too? Hoover was allowed to barely feed the Belgians because those rations couldn't go to the Belgian army. Germany won't allow food to reach Zealand as long as a Danish army is active on the island. Zealand will starve during the war because there will be many more people on Zealand during the war than there were before the war.

Also, aside from the food problem, how will Zealand be able to manufacture all the mines, munitions, ships, and other weapons these overly idealistic defensive plans require?

Zealand will be starved into surrender by late 1915, or perhaps as late as early 1916 if the Danish government is bloody minded enough.


Bill

[Valdemar II]

Denmark produced food to around 5 million people in 1914, Denmark had 2 million, Zealand is one of the most fertile areas in Denmark, and produced enough food to feed the entire population of Denmark, beside that Denmark can still import food through Sweden, which at the very least can import that through Norwegian harbours.

Germany can't close Kattegat down without declaring war on Norway.

The reason that convoys to the Baltic was impossible in OTL was that Denmark had mined Oeresund and Storebaelt to it and banned foreign naval access to Danish waters, so while a British convoy could get through, the protecting vessels couldn't.

[Bill Cameron]

Valdemar II,

Nice to see you've back off your "Royal Navy To The Rescue" claims. Let's refute your other idealistic ideas now...

Denmark produced food to around 5 million people in 1914...

And did so due to a reliance on imported nitrates. Even with the Haber-Bosch process, occupied lands, and foreign laborers Germany still couldn't manage pre-1914 agricultural yields. Zealand isn't going to be receiving shiploads of fossilized bird shit from Chile. Agricultural yields will drop and "free" Denmark will starve. In the OTL starvation happened to a much better positioned and technologically advanced Germany, a poorer, besieged, less advanced, and geographically constrained Denmark won't be able to do any better.

... beside that Denmark can still import food through Sweden...

Only if the Germans allow it. There's strategic purchasing for one thing, Germany can simply buy up Sweden's ag surpluses. There's economic pressure for another. Finally Germany can lay mines or operate light craft

... which at the very least can import that through Norwegian harbours. Germany can't close Kattegat down without declaring war on Norway.

They can do the next best thing and that will be enough. Norwegian freighters creeping through Norwegian and Swedish waters will still need to enter Danish waters to deliver food and goods to Denmark. When they do, they're fair targets for Germany under the same blockade rules Britain is enforcing in the North Sea.

The reason that convoys to the Baltic was impossible in OTL...

Sorry, but no.

Convoys to the Baltic weren't impossible in the OTL, the RN and USN routinely covered Scandinavian convoys with portions of the Grand Fleet. What was impossible in the OTL were convoys to Russia because those convoys had to pass German occupied lands in a narrow sea.

The Germans occupying Jutland aren't going to let convoys headed for a besieged Zealand pass unmolested anymore than they let convoys heading for Russia pass unmolested in the OTL. And the Grand Fleet isn't going to be able to force convoys through the Skageratt and Kattegat any more than they were able in the OTL.

I know you've most likely got some emotional attachment to the idea of a rump Denmark becoming another "Brave Little Belgium", but the geography is stacked too greatly against that occurring. We need to be realistic here. Zealand is going to starve and be forced to surrender just as with Serbia.

By the way, care to explain how a besieged Zealand is going to produce all the munitions, mines, ships, and other materials your defense scheme will require? I noticed you forgot to answer that one last time I asked it.


Bill

[Euroman26]

Here is how I look at it.

The british destruction of danish Navy and economy of 1800 must not happen.
Secondly we need a weak Germany. Maybe no Bismarck?
Maybe Denmark could mirror Belgium in economical development in 1800s? Making huge somes of money from her colonies in Africa and the Caribian?

[I Blame Communism]

Here is how I look at it.

The british destruction of danish Navy and economy of 1800 must not happen.
Secondly we need a weak Germany. Maybe no Bismarck?
Maybe Denmark could mirror Belgium in economical development in 1800s? Making huge somes of money from her colonies in Africa and the Caribian?

1) But the butterflies!

2) You'd want an expert, but I don't think the Congo was such a huge cash-cow.

[Euroman26]

1) 2) You'd want an expert, but I don't think the Congo was such a huge cash-cow.

Look at the the royal palace in Brussels. Its as big a the palace in London. I am sure the money for Royal Palace in Brussels didn't come from collecting Taxes in Belgium.

[I Blame Communism]

Look at the the royal palace in Brussels. Its as big a the palace in London. I am sure the money for Royal Palace in Brussels didn't come from collecting Taxes in Belgium.

You don't have figures, I don't have figures, but I do remember reading the King Leopold was forever battling to keep his colonial schemes a float financially.

[Euroman26]

You don't have figures, I don't have figures, but I do remember reading the King Leopold was forever battling to keep his colonial schemes a float financially.

Still being a Dane I would loved being able "change history for better" as they said in Quantum Leap series, and thusly make danish history turn out for the better in the late 19th and early 20th Century!

[Redbeard]

can't stop commenting on some of this:

Zealand starving
Zealand has allways been very fertile, also long before fertilisers, and has allways been able to feed many more than its own inhabitors. If all of Zealand is controlled I don't see why anybody should starve - fertilisers or not. Next this is not the Midwest or Ukraine with huge wheatfields much dependent on fertiliser, but rather dairy and intensive gardening agriculture. Quite elaborate methods had been developed to change crops and use natural fertilisers.

I'm sure the production level would decrease as grain fodder rise in price, but it will take years, and hardly to anywhere near starvation level.

There actually was a production of ammo and light arms on Zealand.

Jutland blocking access to Zealand/the Baltic
Posessing Jutland will not do much in blocking Zealand or the Baltic. Skagerak and Kattegat are simply too wide to be blocked from Jutland with WWI technology.

Skagerak is too deep to be practical to mine and no gun can reach all the way to Norway. The German navy can of course try to meet the RN in open water in the Skagerak, but hardly recommendable.

In the Kattegat the main issue will be the minefields and hit and run tactics from light forces, but I can't see how the Germans or anyone else can keep away a determined RN. The British simply have too many destroyers and light cruisers, but of course are likely to take heavy losses.

Copenhagen or not - that is the question
The real issue will be who controlls the Fortification of Copenhagen, as the Oeresund is controlled from here, and Oeresund then the only practical access to and from the Baltic.

The Fortification of Copenhagen included heavy artillery (up to 14") guarding the Oeresund and was built from late 19th century and into WWI. It had quite modern equipment and was manned by some 40.000 men from 1914 which could be reinforced in case of war.

In general I think you can say that if Copenhagen is controlled by the British (through a friendly Danish Government) nothing really would be able to stop them from reinforcing and supplying Copenhagen down the Kattegat, but it will be quite another job to stop the Germans from crossing to South or West Zealand and from here lay siege to Copenhagen, and eventually take it. Seen from a Danish point of view you would have to ask: what's in it for us? Apart from providing for yet another bloody battlefield not deciding the war?

The most likely option for Danish participation in WWI would have been on German side - if the British had decided to violate Danish neutrality. Here the Copenhagen Fortification really would show its worth. The British probably can't be stopped from forcing their way through Skagerak and Kattegat, but to get any further they need to take Copenhagen. But from behind the minefields in Oeresund, guarded from Copenhagen, the Germans unhindered can reinforce and supply Copenhagen. It's like giving the Dardanelles more modern equipment and moving it all inside range of heavy German reinforcement.

When originally planned in late 19th century it is likely that the Copenhagen Fortifications were built against possible German aggression, and hoping for a British alliance. In an 1880 world Copenhagen would have remained safe behind it fortress ring and would have been comfortably supplied down the Kattegat or across the Oeresund. The plans didn't count on Jutland or all Zealand necessarily remaining in Danish control.

By 1914 however the range of artillery had increased enough for a besieger outside the fortification ring to hit Copenhagen city. An auxilliary plan was made for a field fortification at Tune (from Roskilde to Bay of Koege) but the comfortable safety of the expensive fortification was gone. Next the German navy had grown so much, that it would be unlikely for Denmark alone to keep the communications open to Copenhagen, and there were no indications of Britain willing to enter a risky "Save Denmark" operation.

So the only option left was playing along as a German vassal and hope for the best.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[I Blame Communism]

Still being a Dane I would loved being able "change history for better" as they said in Quantum Leap series, and thusly make danish history turn out for the better in the late 19th and early 20th Century!

Yeah, better unless you happen to be a German of Flensburg... I'm a patriot myself, and I have nothing against people exploring how their history could have turned out for the better (if you're Chinese, say, Russian or indeed German its hard to do much else), but this is just silly. Trampling on butterflies and drastically meddling.