Viva Balbo! – An Alternate Duce, an Alternate Italy

[Geekhis Khan]

So I'm thinking about some people in this TL and I'm wondering what happened to Enrico Fermi? His wife (and staff) aren't being persecuted by anti-semantic laws so his primary reason for leaving Italy is gone (unless Balbo has cut his funding).

Image Fermi still in Italy along with possibly all those Jewish Scientists from Germany leaving through Project Moses. I have this silly image of Balbo flying the jet that drops the first nuke invented on Berlin. :cool:

LOL,no Italian Nukes in WW2 ahead...Fermi was awesome, but he didn't build the bomb alone.

Fermi's still in Italy at the moment with no plans to leave.

There's a chance he might go anyway: the Americans would have better funding and things look kind of unstable in Europe anyways.

Certainly a possibility.

On the other hand, I had this vision of Umberto Eco in a room with two burly squadristi, a bottle of castor oil and a glass...

LOL evil, evil, evil.

At the moment he's an 8-year-old kid in Piedmont. His dad's an accountant.

[hsthompson]

At the moment he's an 8-year-old kid in Piedmont. His dad's an accountant.

Indeed he is. The character of Belbo in Foucault's Pendulum sounds very autobiographic. It is a silly notion, but perhaps Belbo was named from Balbo?

[Geekhis Khan]

Indeed he is. The character of Belbo in Foucault's Pendulum sounds very autobiographic. It is a silly notion, but perhaps Belbo was named from Balbo?

No idea there.

[BlairWitch749]

There is a TL in one of the Tsouras compilation books where Italy steers and independant course (under Ciano) and a personal relationship independant of the entente or axis is built with the US where lend lease is extended to Italy under USN guard in return for their continued neutrality and good behavior

[joea64]

LOL,no Italian Nukes in WW2 ahead...Fermi was awesome, but he didn't build the bomb alone.

Fermi's still in Italy at the moment with no plans to leave.

It doesn't necessarily follow therefore, of course, that he won't leave later on, either on his own volition or because he's sent somewhere by the Italian government. For instance, his services would be a valuable bargaining chip for Balbo to get desperately needed materiel from the Allies. Or, God forbid, he could be captured by the Germans. :eek:

[joea64]

There is a TL in one of the Tsouras compilation books where Italy steers and independant course (under Ciano) and a personal relationship independant of the entente or axis is built with the US where lend lease is extended to Italy under USN guard in return for their continued neutrality and good behavior

I'm certain Balbo would count that to be an ideal outcome; he'd happily stay out of the war, and get as many other countries as he could to follow Italy's lead, in exchange for a turn at the Lend-Lease cornucopia. The question is, will Hitler allow him to stay neutral? I kind of doubt it. :(

[Geekhis Khan]

There is a TL in one of the Tsouras compilation books where Italy steers and independant course (under Ciano) and a personal relationship independant of the entente or axis is built with the US where lend lease is extended to Italy under USN guard in return for their continued neutrality and good behavior


I'm certain Balbo would count that to be an ideal outcome; he'd happily stay out of the war, and get as many other countries as he could to follow Italy's lead, in exchange for a turn at the Lend-Lease cornucopia. The question is, will Hitler allow him to stay neutral? I kind of doubt it. :(

Some of these things may indeed come to pass in one way or another...


It doesn't necessarily follow therefore, of course, that he won't leave later on, either on his own volition or because he's sent somewhere by the Italian government. For instance, his services would be a valuable bargaining chip for Balbo to get desperately needed materiel from the Allies.

Certainly...

Or, God forbid, he could be captured by the Germans. :eek:

Hmmmm....:cool:

[BlairWitch749]

I'm certain Balbo would count that to be an ideal outcome; he'd happily stay out of the war, and get as many other countries as he could to follow Italy's lead, in exchange for a turn at the Lend-Lease cornucopia. The question is, will Hitler allow him to stay neutral? I kind of doubt it. :(

Attacking into the Alps isn't a small enterprise... two of Hitler's most trust advisers at this point would tell him its a very bad idea

Erwin Rommel: At that point commander of the fuhrer begleit battalion... having served there, and knowing the terrain, he would be totally opposed to it... and at that particular moment in time, he was Hitler's dinner guest every evening seated right next to him, and Hitler was consulting with him on operational decisions on a daily basis during the Polish campaign

Frederich Paulus: Wasn't quartermaster general yet but was still a mover and shaker in the OKH had a nearly identicle service jacket to Rommel's and would likely have been solicited to draw up a campaign against Italy due to his experience in the theater, and would come out heavily against the campaign, due to the lack of specialized German infantry divisions capable of fighting through that terrain

[Geekhis Khan]

Attacking into the Alps isn't a small enterprise... two of Hitler's most trust advisers at this point would tell him its a very bad idea

Erwin Rommel: At that point commander of the fuhrer begleit battalion... having served there, and knowing the terrain, he would be totally opposed to it... and at that particular moment in time, he was Hitler's dinner guest every evening seated right next to him, and Hitler was consulting with him on operational decisions on a daily basis during the Polish campaign

Frederich Paulus: Wasn't quartermaster general yet but was still a mover and shaker in the OKH had a nearly identicle service jacket to Rommel's and would likely have been solicited to draw up a campaign against Italy due to his experience in the theater, and would come out heavily against the campaign, due to the lack of specialized German infantry divisions capable of fighting through that terrain

Good to know, thanks!

[Jimbrock]

Anti-semitic, you mean. There's a chance he might go anyway: the Americans would have better funding and things look kind of unstable in Europe anyways.

On the other hand, I had this vision of Umberto Eco in a room with two burly squadristi, a bottle of castor oil and a glass...

It would be rather funny if Eco became some kind of despotic demagogue, in contrast to what he writes and stands for IOTL.

[mailinutile2]

Malaparte learned how to bend on the most profitable way both during and after fascism, thus I don't see why Eco would not.
Only, a bit too young.
At the moment, italian literature is Pirandello

[joea64]

Good to know, thanks!

The above from BlairWitch749 presumes, of course, that Hitler (a) is in a rational frame of mind, (b) is willing to listen to the experts on the question, and (c) hasn't gotten a wild hair up his butt about Italy in general and Balbo in particular. If Balbo registers a particularly loud and unpleasant complaint about the quality of the wine at the Berghof, Hitler might just be offended enough to tell Rommel and Paulus to mind their own beeswax when they try to warn him about the dangers of a land war in Italy. :D

[mailinutile2]

Dear Author,
there is a question I forgot to ask you which is not really related to the situation at hand but rather to the general background.
What is Edda doing?
If I understood the situation correctly, she inherited the colossal fortune of the Ciano Family (since both Costanzo and galeazzo are dead by now) and she is M's daughter.
Also she is unlikely to stay at home weeping for her lost husband

[BlairWitch749]

The above from BlairWitch749 presumes, of course, that Hitler (a) is in a rational frame of mind, (b) is willing to listen to the experts on the question, and (c) hasn't gotten a wild hair up his butt about Italy in general and Balbo in particular. If Balbo registers a particularly loud and unpleasant complaint about the quality of the wine at the Berghof, Hitler might just be offended enough to tell Rommel and Paulus to mind their own beeswax when they try to warn him about the dangers of a land war in Italy. :D

Hitler didn't go insane till the end of 1941 so its pretty safe to assume he would listen to people... he listened to experts throughout the phony war period who convinced him to delay the offensive till the spring, and not attack in the middle of a nasty winter... he also listened to alternatives to a rehash of the 1914 offensive (with strong results at that)

Even if he thought Balbo and Italy where ungrateful traitors, that doesn't mean he is going to engage in war... he had exactly that opinion of Franco and was content to leave him alone, and there where viable strategic reasons to invade and change the constellation of power in Spain... a neutral Italy invasion serves absolutely no purpose, and in effect adds a lot of mouths to feed and he would face almost unanimous opposition from the OKH and OKW which he wasn't in a position to just override on rage in 1939/40

[Geekhis Khan]

BW is right here. Hitler was insane, but still reasonably rational and composed at this point. As the war progresses and Megalomania combines with Victory Fever and large doses of "Vitamins" from "Dr. Gefellengut", however...

Dear Author,
there is a question I forgot to ask you which is not really related to the situation at hand but rather to the general background.
What is Edda doing?
If I understood the situation correctly, she inherited the colossal fortune of the Ciano Family (since both Costanzo and galeazzo are dead by now) and she is M's daughter.
Also she is unlikely to stay at home weeping for her lost husband

Edda's dead. She was killed along with her father in the grenade attack that took her father. So she's not doing much at all at the moment.

Galeazzo is still alive, but in really bad physical shape. He's "medically retired" as a national hero.

[mailinutile2]

Galeazzo is still alive, but in really bad physical shape. He's "medically retired" as a national hero.
I'm confused.
Do you mean Costanzo [the father] is still alive, but in really bad physical shape ?
I understood that Galeazzo [the son] was killed in the attack.
(And there is no reason for him to be labeled as a national hero anyway, while the father's exploits were considerable).

Other thing regarding background: is D'annunzio dead?
He was a fascist icon and OTL he and Balbo were quite in bad terms

[joea64]

I'm confused.
Do you mean Costanzo [the father] is still alive, but in really bad physical shape ?
I understood that Galeazzo [the son] was killed in the attack.
(And there is no reason for him to be labeled as a national hero anyway, while the father's exploits were considerable).

Other thing regarding background: is D'annunzio dead?
He was a fascist icon and OTL he and Balbo were quite in bad terms

According to Wikipedia, d'Annunzio died two years ago already.

[mailinutile2]

OTL I know.
I was wondering TTL

[joea64]

OTL I know.
I was wandering TTL

Well, he was 75 at his OTL death. So, even if he's still alive, he's pushing 80 and may not be in very good health/capable of political activity anymore himself.

(Oddly enough, I purchased the DVD of Visconti's movie of d'Annunzio's L'Innocente, starring Laura Antonelli, a couple of weeks ago. It makes me wonder just what kind of treatment d'Annunzio's novels would get in Italian cinema in Balboist Italy, given his contradictory statuses as a Fascist hero and a bitter opponent of Balbo.)

[Geekhis Khan]

I'm confused.
Do you mean Costanzo [the father] is still alive, but in really bad physical shape ?
I understood that Galeazzo [the son] was killed in the attack.
(And there is no reason for him to be labeled as a national hero anyway, while the father's exploits were considerable).

Other thing regarding background: is D'annunzio dead?
He was a fascist icon and OTL he and Balbo were quite in bad terms

Yes, Count Galeazzo Ciano, the son, Mussies son in law, survived the attack but was horribly and permanently crippled.

D'Annunzio died pretty much as OTL.

[Geekhis Khan]

Italy's continued neutrality put her in a difficult strategic situation, at once caught between the German Devil and the British Deep Blue Sea. Balbo and his ministers worked diligently through many a night trying to walk the line between the Entente and Pakt. [...] For the Entente, the British in particular, Italy was a "sticky wicket", in the words of Halifax. Memories of Mussolini's "Axis" and lingering anti-British sentiments in the Regia Marina caused great concern among the Admiralty that Italy might join the Pakt, putting further strain on Royal Navy assets. Admiral Cavagnari, seen in the west as a capable and aggressive commander [1], offered a viable threat to the Mediterranean fleet. Some even recommended a preemptive strike on Taranto, yet continued fears of Italy's aerial assets, MAS and torpedo boats, and the growing danger of Italian frogmen created enough uncertainty to reject the plan out of hand. [...]

One growing point of contention with Britain was the embargo on Germany. German exports of coal accounted for a significant percentage of Italian industry needs, a large percentage of which came to Italy by sea as rail networks were insufficient, and under current British plans German export ships were subject to embargo. In an effort to keep Italy harmlessly neutral, Halifax proposed an ambitious plan of economic incentives. Britain would offer Italy 8.5 million tons of coal in 1940 (70% of her needs) and would allow Italy to "pay" for it without risking her dwindling hard currency reserves by Britain in turn buying £20 million in Italian goods, including the produce and fruits Germany no longer desired plus military weapons and ammunition [2]. This latter was a sticking point, as it risked the anger and potential wrath of the Germans.

Negotiations continued. Proposals included selling disarmed bombers as "training" aircraft. Already Italy was selling aircraft engines to the French and it was proposed that Italy could do likewise for the British. Also proposed were sales of Italy's 47mm field gun [3]. [...] Interestingly it was Balbo who proposed a unique option. As part of his efforts wearing his Aeronautica hat Balbo was acutely aware of the need for modern inline engines for his new monoplane fighters. The British Merlin had, along with the German Daimler 601, performed well in the competitive trials of the prior year. The Daimler had "won" the competition mainly due to its fuel injection (the carburetor-fed Merlins were found to cut out in negative-G dives), but the Merlins had performed well in all other areas. Balbo used the trade impasse as excuse to choose the Merlin as the engine of choice for the next generation of the Macchi C.200 fighter. In return for the coal shipments and other raw material trade concessions Piaggio Corporation received a license to build the Merlin II, officially for Italian consumption but covertly also producing engines for British use...units were generally hidden among produce shipments, hence the Piaggio Merlins' now famous nickname of "Orange Crates". [...] While the Orange Crate Merlin sales to the Brits were not unknown to German Intelligence (and caused a great deal of private rage in Hitler) the covert nature of the sales gave enough plausible deniability for diplomacy between the former Axis partners to continue on official grounds. Later establishment of the Daimler engine as the "winner" in the Fiat G.50 competition and the subsequent licensing of the DB601 engine for production by Fiat under a similar covert sales contract (called this time "Teigwarenmaschinen" or "Pasta Machines") is typically regarded as a direct result of the Orange Crate Merlin. [...]

On February 24th [1940] Ribbentrop and an entourage that included Goering and Himmler arrived as part of the annual renegotiation of the Italo-German trade agreement. This time the discussion was tense and rife with discomfort. Hitler's anger with the Italian "betrayers" and Balbo's own half-buried distrust of the Germans were exacerbating the already tense situation created by th Balkans and Alto Adige/South Tyrol. Hoping to defuse the tension Grandi and Ribbentrop arranged for cordial formalities and other icebreaking measures before talks began. This effort afforded Balbo and Goering an opportunity to discuss aviation and other shared interests and helped ameliorate some of the distrust and hostility in the air. [...] Talks proceeded cordially. Unbeknownst to the Germans Italy was wholly underconfident in their abilities to wage war against the Germans in light of the recently unearthed discrepancies in readiness while unbeknownst to the Italians Hitler, despite his growing anger at Balbian policy, had listened to the advice of his generals and directed that war with Italy be avoided for the foreseeable future (this was due to the difficulty of the Alpine terrain and the remaining Franco-British threat in the west). With both sides quietly dedicated to maintaining the status quo in Italo-German relations the meeting proceeded as well as could be expected. In addition to the "Teigwaren" engines contract the Germans agreed to increase the flow of coal and metals by land routes in exchange for large quantities of copper. The desired amount of copper was beyond Italian ability to produce despite it being one of Italy's few surplus materials. Favagrossa claimed they'd need to "steal the pots from housewives and the baptismal bowls from churches" to meet the demand. The Italians demanded other resources in return, including large amounts of such rare substances as molybdenum. The impasse was somewhat mitigated by a reduced Italian coal requirement due to the British deal, but still there was no proper balance which could be achieved in resource flow even when Clandestine plans were made to use Italy as a transshipment point for German trade to bypass the embargo.

With the trade situation stalled, talks moved on to the Elephant in the Room, Alto Adige-South Tyrol. [...] After a long and at times heated debate it was agreed that a population transfer would be initiated that later summer with German families given the choice to remain as loyal Italian citizens or accept a quite generous government buyout and move into the Reich. [...] With the Adige/Tyrol situation resolved to both side's satisfaction the talks returned to trade, to the earlier stall. [...]

It was the night of the 28th that a strange and fateful final solution to the trade problem emerged in the form of Nazi racial policy. Himmler, still trying to figure out what to do with the hundreds of thousands of displaced German, Czech, and Polish Jews crudely corralled into ghettos, was clued into a brief interest Balbo had shown earlier to Hess in taking in German Jews. This dovetailed well with his current Jewish resettlement plans. He approached Balbo on the issue and found him quite receptive.

From Balbo's view the acceptance of Jewish "settlers" was a win-win situation on many accounts. His own distaste for the "barbarous" German anti-semitic laws, the grand and "monumental" nature of the plan, his desire to "one-up" the other nations of the world who had turned a blind eye towards German Jewish policy, and finally the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia all offered incentives to Balbo. Although he had recently authorized Graziani to exploit ethnic divides in the new colony to battle the growing insurgency (something Mussolini had flat out refused to allow), the insurgency was still costing too many lives and tying up far to many badly-needed combat troops and resources. A large influx of European settlers would, it was assumed, help to offset the native numerical superiority and quicken the pacification of the colony. Balbo discussed the situation at length with Himmler before finally coming to an agreement: the European Jews would be openly accepted into the Italian Empire in new settlements in Italian Africa at a graded value per head to be paid to Italy. To cover this "payment" the same trains which brought the Jewish refugees would bring the coal, metals, and other resources with any "difference" in balance to be made up in either German cash or embargoed goods transshipped through Italian ports. This succeeded in "balancing" the trade arrangement to the satisfaction of both parties and in an odd side-effect to the discussions "Project Moses" was born.

From Warriors, Diplomats, Statesmen, Dictators – the Political and Diplomatic History of Europe in the Twentieth Century, by Dr. Eric Spellman, Harvard University, 1994


************************************************

Note a piè di pagina:

1 – By the power of Hindsight we know their fears to be totally unfounded on both accounts.

2 – This was Halifax's plan OTL. Ciano was an avid supporter of the plan. It fell through because of Mussolini's desire to stay in Hitler's graces and his by then set-in-stone plans to intervene on Germany's side at an opportune moment.

3 – All of these, "training" bombers, the French engine sales, and the 47mm gun sales proposals are OTL. Events would end the French sales and Mussolini would quash the Trainer and 47mm sales.

[Jimbrock]

Very interesting, very interesting indeed. So Italy plays neutral and cordial to both sides, gaining concessions from both sides too, and also this Moses affair also seems...interesting, in the Chinese sense. I wonder when Italy actually will join the war...

[B_Munro]

Libya as a potential "second Israel?" The mind boggles... :eek:

Bruce

[Geekhis Khan]

Very interesting, very interesting indeed. So Italy plays neutral and cordial to both sides, gaining concessions from both sides too, and also this Moses affair also seems...interesting, in the Chinese sense. I wonder when Italy actually will join the war...

Stay tuned...:D

Libya as a potential "second Israel?" The mind boggles... :eek:

Bruce

Ethiopia, actually. After all it's "another Jewish homeland" from an ancient Roman perspective.

[BlairWitch749]

Glad to see you had Hitler leave them alone, which is 100 percent what he would have done... does Balbo butterfly away adventurism in the Balkans... because if something was going to antagonize the crap out of Hitler, it would be Italian encrouchment towards Ploeisti... one could see some damn serious threats made if there was even a whiff of Italy forming any kind of alliance with Romania

[Urban fox]

Stay tuned...:D



Ethiopia, actually. After all it's "another Jewish homeland" from an ancient Roman perspective.

These settlers will need to be armed much like the Zionist ones who went to British Palestine OTL. How will this effect the Zionist movement in the future? Arguably having a Zion in Africa I.E in parts of Ethiopia where Jews may wind up the majority population may draw more settlers than the rather less secure one in Palestine. Still Palestine may well be a bigger draw for historic reasons. So having two ‘’Jewish states’’ one Italian Fascist and other Democratic/Or Soviet Commie (Could go either way early on) would be interesting.

[B_Munro]

These settlers will need to be armed much like the Zionist ones who went to British Palestine OTL. How will this effect the Zionist movement in the future? Arguably having a Zion in Africa I.E in parts of Ethiopia where Jews may wind up the majority population may draw more settlers than the rather less secure one in Palestine. .

Which areas are these? Most of the less densely populated areas of Ethiopia are pretty barren heckholes, and the southern and eastern thinly populated heckholes are inhabited by Muslims, which are likely to make themselves objectionable (see, Somalia).

Bruce

[Germaniac]

Which areas are these? Most of the less densely populated areas of Ethiopia are pretty barren heckholes, and the southern and eastern thinly populated heckholes are inhabited by Muslims, which are likely to make themselves objectionable (see, Somalia).

Bruce

I don't really know where these settlers are going, the areas of decent quality are taken up by the indigenous peoples. I don't see how taking away land and consigning them to wastelands is going to help the guerrilla situations. If anything it could create a very powerful anti-Semitic feeling, turning a people who were always very friendly to the Jewish Community into an enemy

[Urban fox]

I don't really know where these settlers are going, the areas of decent quality are taken up by the indigenous peoples. I don't see how taking away land and consigning them to wastelands is going to help the guerrilla situations. If anything it could create a very powerful anti-Semitic feeling, turning a people who were always very friendly to the Jewish Community into an enemy

Not all groups in Ethiopia were pro-Jewish in any case with Graziani in charge and told to ''exploit ethnic divides'' the idea of him clearing out a troublesome tribe to make way for Jewish settlement isnt all that far-fetched.

In order to be secure they new settlers will need a well protected enclave where they form a majority.

[B_Munro]

Not all groups in Ethiopia were pro-Jewish in any case with Graziani in charge and told to ''exploit ethnic divides'' the idea of him clearing out a troublesome tribe to make way for Jewish settlement isnt all that far-fetched.

In order to be secure they new settlers will need a well protected enclave where they form a majority.

Yes - surrounded by people they have displaced.... sound familiar? :D

Bruce

[Germaniac]

Yes - surrounded by people they have displaced.... sound familiar? :D

Bruce

Thats why I don't think Balbo would do that, I think he would foresee the problems that would cause

[DuQuense]

Red Sea is 2000 miles long = 5000 miles round trip Italy Ethiopia/ Eritrea, at ~10 mph = 500 hours = 21 days. add in several days turnaround, and whe have one trip per month.

Stuff 1000?? refugees on each ship, and whe have 12,000 refugess per Ship - per year.

?How large was Italy's Merchant Marine?

If most of the Refugees came from eastern Germany/Poland, Whe may end up with some Majority Yiddish Areas, Allowing Yiddish to survive ITTL.

[mailinutile2]

Dear Author,
I love the Orange-Crates and the Pasta-Machine arrangements.
As an italian I feel flattered by the idea that such outrageous lies could be used. :D
I am eager to hear of a Mandolini request from Peenemunde and a Pizza order from Bletchley Park

[Germaniac]

I think it would be better off to send these colonists slowly into Libya and smaller numbers into Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Eritrea might be a better solution than Ethiopia. It had been long since pacified and its people grew accustomed to colonial rule. With a better irrigation system (today's irrigation system, barely there, are holdovers from Italian rule) settlement there could be a more productive effort. Mussolini focused alot of industrial development in Eritrean cities and wanted it to become the industrial center of Italian East Africa.

Libya probably cannot support a huge influx of settlers and can only take in increments of 20,000-50,000 at a time, with huge supplies of engineers and construction workers coming in before then to establish infrastructure.

I had one question though Libya's "Great Manmade River" project would greatly increase the maximum population Libya can support. By the late 60's Libya could very likely become the breadbasket of mainland Italy (with an Italian majority, protecting it from an Algeria-lite), Could that project come to fruition earlier that in OTL, the means are there at around the same time that Oil can be extracted (thus paying for the project).

[lounge60]

Italo Balbo
70th anniversary of the death: June 28 1940-June 28 2010.

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/1705/aero1.png

[DuQuense]

I think it would be better off to send these colonists slowly into Libya and smaller numbers into Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Eritrea might be a better solution than Ethiopia. It had been long since pacified and its people grew accustomed to colonial rule. With a better irrigation system (today's irrigation system, barely there, are holdovers from Italian rule) settlement there could be a more productive effort. Mussolini focused a lot of industrial development in Eritrean cities and wanted it to become the industrial center of Italian East Africa.Southern Somali is also avalible. The Somali/Kenya Border was ill defined at this time. Several thousand new Settlers, could push the border south.

[Archangel]

Building Dams in Ethiopia's highlands could also be used to industrialise the area and as a long-term investiment to sell energy in the future to emerging industries in other nations nearby colonies.

[lounge60]

Monday 28 june the Italian television have aired a long documentary on Balbo.
The footage of his reception in USA and Italy after the 1933 transatlantic flight are impressive and amazing!
So i ask a little what if inside a what if:
What if Mussolini was killed in late 1933,at the peak of Balbo popularity?
If Balbo take the power in 1933-34 we have an Abyssinia war in 35-36?

[Geekhis Khan]

Thanks for the input, everyone! Not ignoring you all, just been on vacation this week. I'll catch up with your questions soon! :)

[Urban fox]

Um, I would like to give my two cents on a good way to improve the Italian grunt's odd when fighting those wacky Nazi's.

Produce this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beretta_38A in far bigger numbers.:cool:

[Geekhis Khan]

Um, I would like to give my two cents on a good way to improve the Italian grunt's odd when fighting those wacky Nazi's.

Produce this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beretta_38A in far bigger numbers.:cool:

Ooh...I like. Sounds like the perfect weapon for all of Balbo's new "special forces" groups.

[BlairWitch749]

Ooh...I like. Sounds like the perfect weapon for all of Balbo's new "special forces" groups.

That particular weapons was expensive and manpower extensive... given that most ww2 infantry combat was at very short range (75 yards or less) simply licensing out one of their neighbor's submachine guns would be best (Sten, MP-40) or if you want to get obscure (which we know you do ;) Italy can use their relationship with the finns to buy the Suomi and the M-26

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomi_M-31_SMG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahti-Saloranta_M/26

although Italy could easily reduce the number of parts on the M-26 down to about 60 after some study

[Geekhis Khan]

Glad to see you had Hitler leave them alone, which is 100 percent what he would have done... does Balbo butterfly away adventurism in the Balkans... because if something was going to antagonize the crap out of Hitler, it would be Italian encrouchment towards Ploeisti... one could see some damn serious threats made if there was even a whiff of Italy forming any kind of alliance with Romania

At the moment the former Axis mates have agreed to keep a more hands-off approach in the Balkans...that said, they both still consider them in their own respective sphere, so they remain there, waiting, like a bar of gold between two greedy men...

These settlers will need to be armed much like the Zionist ones who went to British Palestine OTL. How will this effect the Zionist movement in the future? Arguably having a Zion in Africa I.E in parts of Ethiopia where Jews may wind up the majority population may draw more settlers than the rather less secure one in Palestine. Still Palestine may well be a bigger draw for historic reasons. So having two ‘’Jewish states’’ one Italian Fascist and other Democratic/Or Soviet Commie (Could go either way early on) would be interesting.

I don't really know where these settlers are going, the areas of decent quality are taken up by the indigenous peoples. I don't see how taking away land and consigning them to wastelands is going to help the guerrilla situations. If anything it could create a very powerful anti-Semitic feeling, turning a people who were always very friendly to the Jewish Community into an enemy

Not all groups in Ethiopia were pro-Jewish in any case with Graziani in charge and told to ''exploit ethnic divides'' the idea of him clearing out a troublesome tribe to make way for Jewish settlement isnt all that far-fetched.

In order to be secure they new settlers will need a well protected enclave where they form a majority.

Yes - surrounded by people they have displaced.... sound familiar? :D

Bruce

Thats why I don't think Balbo would do that, I think he would foresee the problems that would cause

Red Sea is 2000 miles long = 5000 miles round trip Italy Ethiopia/ Eritrea, at ~10 mph = 500 hours = 21 days. add in several days turnaround, and whe have one trip per month.

Stuff 1000?? refugees on each ship, and whe have 12,000 refugess per Ship - per year.

?How large was Italy's Merchant Marine?

If most of the Refugees came from eastern Germany/Poland, Whe may end up with some Majority Yiddish Areas, Allowing Yiddish to survive ITTL.

I think it would be better off to send these colonists slowly into Libya and smaller numbers into Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Eritrea might be a better solution than Ethiopia. It had been long since pacified and its people grew accustomed to colonial rule. With a better irrigation system (today's irrigation system, barely there, are holdovers from Italian rule) settlement there could be a more productive effort. Mussolini focused alot of industrial development in Eritrean cities and wanted it to become the industrial center of Italian East Africa.

Libya probably cannot support a huge influx of settlers and can only take in increments of 20,000-50,000 at a time, with huge supplies of engineers and construction workers coming in before then to establish infrastructure.

Oh yes, the cultural, logistical, and political ramifications here are huge, and Balbo may very well have bitten off way more than he can chew! I never promised Balbo would make all the right decisions, you know. ;)

Thank you DuQuense for the back-of-the-envelope calcs. Saved me some math.

Ethiopia is the originally chosen destination because that's Italian Fascist Romanita thinking: Ethiopia's full of Jews, right? Just like in the Caesars' time, right? We need to up to friendly population there to help quell this insurgency, right? Stay tuned to see how well this works out for them. :cool:

Also, time to peel back the curtain a little for those interested in the Meta of this TL: I purposefully didn't research too deeply into the affair of Project Moses but chose it on a virtual whim in simulation of how an impulsive egoist like Balbo might have come to the plan. Standard Fascist Philosophy is "act, not think", and that's what I did. As the real problems of such a bold plan emerge, I'll have to deal with them just like the Italians would...and this means you can expect more than one massive clusterfuck of epic proportions before this is over. Remember in the Prologue when I discussed the "controversy" over the plan? ;)

Dear Author,
I love the Orange-Crates and the Pasta-Machine arrangements.
As an italian I feel flattered by the idea that such outrageous lies could be used. :D
I am eager to hear of a Mandolini request from Peenemunde and a Pizza order from Bletchley Park

Grazie. And consider them, in the most diplomatic sense, overt lies of convenience. There's a certain case of "yea, we know what they're doing, but at the moment let's play along since we may need these guys later". Needless to say, though, the Italians are playing a dangerous game here.

I had one question though Libya's "Great Manmade River" project would greatly increase the maximum population Libya can support. By the late 60's Libya could very likely become the breadbasket of mainland Italy (with an Italian majority, protecting it from an Algeria-lite), Could that project come to fruition earlier that in OTL, the means are there at around the same time that Oil can be extracted (thus paying for the project).

I'm looking into that one. It's in all probability beyond Italian means at the moment, but post-war may be a different story.

Italo Balbo
70th anniversary of the death: June 28 1940-June 28 2010.

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/1705/aero1.png

And the First Anniversary of this TL in his memory. Viva Balbo! :D

Monday 28 june the Italian television have aired a long documentary on Balbo.
The footage of his reception in USA and Italy after the 1933 transatlantic flight are impressive and amazing!
So i ask a little what if inside a what if:
What if Mussolini was killed in late 1933,at the peak of Balbo popularity?
If Balbo take the power in 1933-34 we have an Abyssinia war in 35-36?

Balbo vocally opposed the Ethiopian venture OTL, though how much of that was genuine and how much politics is debatable. My gut says either 1) no, he doesn't or 2) yes, and he openly confronts and engages the Royal Navy in the Med to disastrous results. OTL he proposed exactly such a plan as in 2), but as Gov. or Libya that could also have been biased towards focusing attention and resources to himself. Ever Mercurial, that Balbo. Still, I see him as an "all or nothing" person, so he might well have initiated the "Mediterranean War of 1935" or have backed down over Ethiopia to begin with. Course 1) would be much to Italy's benefit while course 2) would be disaster.

That particular weapons was expensive and manpower extensive... given that most ww2 infantry combat was at very short range (75 yards or less) simply licensing out one of their neighbor's submachine guns would be best (Sten, MP-40) or if you want to get obscure (which we know you do ;) Italy can use their relationship with the finns to buy the Suomi and the M-26

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suomi_M-31_SMG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahti-Saloranta_M/26

although Italy could easily reduce the number of parts on the M-26 down to about 60 after some study

I fully agree that would be the smart thing to do, but remember, this is Fascist Italy, a self-important authoritarian nation with an inferiority complex and a huge internal drive towards Autarchy and self-sufficiency. Balbo will go full bore (no pun intended) with the Beretta 38 regardless of whether they could more easily equip with Stens.

At this point, however, the Suomis and M/26s are pretty much off the table anyway. The Fins need them at home to stem the Red Tide and the Sov's fellow Pakt allies the Nazis have been blockading arms shipments to Finland, and might similarly block them from as well in order to maintain the facade of the Pakt a little longer.

[DrakonFin]

At this point, however, the Suomis and M/26s are pretty much off the table anyway. The Fins need them at home to stem the Red Tide and the Sov's fellow Pakt allies the Nazis have been blockading arms shipments to Finland, and might similarly block them from as well in order to maintain the facade of the Pakt a little longer.

No reason they couldn't be produced in Italy under license, it was already done in several countries IOTL.

A scenario: when the Finnish naval school ship Suomen Joutsen visits Italy in the 30s (IOTL in 1934, in Naples), it brings with it the Finnish Export Exhibition (as per OTL). One item on display: the Suomi SMG (as per OTL). Why not the M/26 too? Have Balbo visit the ship at port (OTL, it was visited by Crown Prince Umberto) and see the weapon(s) introduced to him. And take it from there...

[Geekhis Khan]

No reason they couldn't be produced in Italy under license, it was already done in several countries IOTL.

A scenario: when the Finnish naval school ship Suomen Joutsen visits Italy in the 30s (IOTL in 1934, in Naples), it brings with it the Finnish Export Exhibition (as per OTL). One item on display: the Suomi SMG (as per OTL). Why not the M/26 too? Have Balbo visit the ship at port (OTL, it was visited by Crown Prince Umberto) and see the weapon(s) introduced to him. And take it from there...

Hmmm...I'd missed the "license built" thing. Good information, though 1934 is before the POD and a bit late to go back now. Again, it's more about the difference between the "smart" thing to do and the "Fascist" thing to do. The political aim towards Autarchy is pushing towards home-made weapons, and the complexity of manufacture makes the Beretta no different than most other Italian weapons of the time, plus the manner of craftsmanship of the Beretta makes it workable with Italian industry methods where hand-craftsmanship was still the norm over machine automation in many areas.

But I appreciate the info, and to let you (and everyone) know Finland will be looming very large very soon.

[BlairWitch749]

I gravitate towards the Suomi and M-26 because they are badass and the finns hosed down the Russians with those two weapons. Italy was one to have annual maneuvers that where big shows...Balbo or one of his top generals see a spat of jamming and breakdowns and get furious and order hearings or a court of honor

The finn angle made sense to me if only because they had a strong relationship and the weapons could be funneled through Sweeden or Norway rather easily... and a rather simple swap could be made; Italian AA and AT guns in return for a batch of the weapons and licenses to build them Italy (and Beretta or whomever could retool the M-26 into a simpler design... basically the damn thing was a selective fire, hand held automatic shotgun, and was super lethal at close range)

The other angle that could make a lot of sense is to buy designs from the United States... The BAR could fill the squad support role and the thompson and garand would also be far better weapons than Italy's indiginous weapons... FDR could give it to them for free in return for their continued good behavior

[mailinutile2]

MAB38 is not bad as a weapon.
I used myself a couple of times while doing my military service.
Quite a piece of antique trade, but the point is was still working, and working good, thus proving to be very reliable.
Reliability was (and is) the sore point of virtually all the other italian military equipment

[DrakonFin]

Hmmm...I'd missed the "license built" thing. Good information, though 1934 is before the POD and a bit late to go back now. Again, it's more about the difference between the "smart" thing to do and the "Fascist" thing to do. The political aim towards Autarchy is pushing towards home-made weapons, and the complexity of manufacture makes the Beretta no different than most other Italian weapons of the time, plus the manner of craftsmanship of the Beretta makes it workable with Italian industry methods where hand-craftsmanship was still the norm over machine automation in many areas.

Yes, I understand 1934 is too early, but as the SJ made yearly voyages through the 30s, butterflies might have well caused another call at an Italian port before the war... I see your point about Fascist thought and autarchy, though.

But I appreciate the info, and to let you (and everyone) know Finland will be looming very large very soon.

Thank you, I'll keep my eyes peeled. Keep up the good work!

[Geekhis Khan]

I gravitate towards the Suomi and M-26 because they are badass and the finns hosed down the Russians with those two weapons. Italy was one to have annual maneuvers that where big shows...Balbo or one of his top generals see a spat of jamming and breakdowns and get furious and order hearings or a court of honor

The finn angle made sense to me if only because they had a strong relationship and the weapons could be funneled through Sweeden or Norway rather easily... and a rather simple swap could be made; Italian AA and AT guns in return for a batch of the weapons and licenses to build them Italy (and Beretta or whomever could retool the M-26 into a simpler design... basically the damn thing was a selective fire, hand held automatic shotgun, and was super lethal at close range)

The other angle that could make a lot of sense is to buy designs from the United States... The BAR could fill the squad support role and the thompson and garand would also be far better weapons than Italy's indiginous weapons... FDR could give it to them for free in return for their continued good behavior

The Finn angle does makes sense and there may be a future there. A lot of this could come to play later. For now, though, the 38A is looking just freakin' awesome in trials (AFAIK it performed just fine and the model 38A was a very great weapon, the problem was that its complexity limited the output numbers low low production rates) and Balbo is likely as blissfully ignorant as the Pentagon was about M-16s in Vietnam as the Confindustria feeds him shovels full of BS. Like Mussie OTL he may change course later (OTL Mussie ordered a simplified version in 42 resulting in the more mass-producible 42 model).

[BlairWitch749]

The Finn angle does makes sense and there may be a future there. A lot of this could come to play later. For now, though, the 38A is looking just freakin' awesome in trials (AFAIK it performed just fine and the model 38A was a very great weapon, the problem was that its complexity limited the output numbers low low production rates) and Balbo is likely as blissfully ignorant as the Pentagon was about M-16s in Vietnam as the Confindustria feeds him shovels full of BS. Like Mussie OTL he may change course later (OTL Mussie ordered a simplified version in 42 resulting in the more mass-producible 42 model).

The M-38A wasn't a poor weapon compared to its pears on the battlefield itself (it only suffered from problems similar to other SMG's of its day, inaccuracy, poor quality control in the magazines causing feed problems and problems with the catch and release mechanism leading to the magazine falling out of the gun if you jostle it around to much)... but the production issues loom larger... Italy is a mass conscript army, you can't have handcrafted weapons in the hands of millions of soldiers... part interchangability is a nightmare, and Italy is still a power player that can buy licenses for something else that they like more and then slap a beretta or carcano or fiat lable on it and call it their own
All of the major armies of europe where tinkering with and changing their infantry weapons at this time anyway... the Russians had no problem using other people's designs... and Italy didn't really have an issue with this in OTL considering that they produced the Stuka, Panzer MK 4 and the DB 601 engine under license and asked for MORE but ran into roadblocks and red tape in the German armaments industry and diplomatic corps

[Geekhis Khan]

The M-38A wasn't a poor weapon compared to its pears on the battlefield itself (it only suffered from problems similar to other SMG's of its day, inaccuracy, poor quality control in the magazines causing feed problems and problems with the catch and release mechanism leading to the magazine falling out of the gun if you jostle it around to much)... but the production issues loom larger... Italy is a mass conscript army, you can't have handcrafted weapons in the hands of millions of soldiers... part interchangability is a nightmare, and Italy is still a power player that can buy licenses for something else that they like more and then slap a beretta or carcano or fiat lable on it and call it their own
All of the major armies of europe where tinkering with and changing their infantry weapons at this time anyway... the Russians had no problem using other people's designs... and Italy didn't really have an issue with this in OTL considering that they produced the Stuka, Panzer MK 4 and the DB 601 engine under license and asked for MORE but ran into roadblocks and red tape in the German armaments industry and diplomatic corps

All good points...I'll think about this some more.

[world]

The M-38 should be used to just supply the best Italian formations until numbers allow more.

[Geekhis Khan]

Question: Norway with a Neutral Balbian Italy.

ITTL Italy is a Hard Neutral rather than an amorphous and Germany-benevolent "Non-belligerent". As such the RN can possibly justify redeploying more of the Med fleet to the North Sea trusting the French to keep tabs on the RM.

Would this make a difference in the 1940 Norway Campaign? The Germans still have the air advantage since the Entente is limited to carrier aircraft, though possibly more carrier aircraft than OTL? However, the increased RN presence could, it seems on the surface, keep better naval superiority or even supremacy beyond the Baltic, possibly improving supplies.

I'm not sure it makes much difference in the Center. but could they do better in the North (Narvik), possibly even enough to maintain a toehold in the north?

Or will the Battle of Belgium, as OTL, lead to *Alphabet and withdraw?

[mailinutile2]

The Germans still have the air advantage
Since you cannot use panzer in alpine territory, I expect that an infantry-aircraft army must be kept in bavaria to guard the italian sector.
How much does it impact on german air advantage ?

[BlairWitch749]

Question: Norway with a Neutral Balbian Italy.

ITTL Italy is a Hard Neutral rather than an amorphous and Germany-benevolent "Non-belligerent". As such the RN can possibly justify redeploying more of the Med fleet to the North Sea trusting the French to keep tabs on the RM.

Would this make a difference in the 1940 Norway Campaign? The Germans still have the air advantage since the Entente is limited to carrier aircraft, though possibly more carrier aircraft than OTL? However, the increased RN presence could, it seems on the surface, keep better naval superiority or even supremacy beyond the Baltic, possibly improving supplies.

I'm not sure it makes much difference in the Center. but could they do better in the North (Narvik), possibly even enough to maintain a toehold in the north?

Or will the Battle of Belgium, as OTL, lead to *Alphabet and withdraw?

I don't think so... you have to keep in mind that a lot of the ships in the med fleet where old ships that Britain didn't feel like they needed (at least front line home defense wise)... Eagle and the R class battle wagons wouldn't be particularly helpful; if anything they might be used to improve convoy defense... only Warspite (which was modernized in the '30s) could be considered a capital ship that the British would consider bringing home

They could do better in convoy defense and perhaps avoid the destroyers for bases deal since they would have 20+ extra fleet destroyers available for other tasks... Norway still falls apart though... the Germans had the initiative and air superiority; anything committed additionally is throwing good money after bad

[Deckhand]

The key to the norwegian campaign is Trondheim and Vaernes airfield. It commands the entire center of the country, and without it the Germans do not have air superiority over the northern two thirds of the country, as their short legged fighters cannot reach it. At least until the germans build new airbases forward, which takes time etc. All the while it is the RAF with air superiority in the north.

How about the Warspite is included in the RN forces off Norway and her battle group runs into the Hipper and the Trondheim force before it can be landed. Hipper gets away but the landing is totally disrupted, and the Norwegians hold Trondheim. This allows them to complete the northern portion of their mobilization and gives the allies a solid base to intervene.

I don't know that this would avoid the fall of Norway, but it would definitely delay it further at the very least, and give the allies a fighting chance.

[world]

It was very logical for Italy to enter the war when it did.
It was the preparation before the war that was lacking not to mention a clear stratgeic goal.

[Expat]

Just finished reading through this TL. Great job! I highly approve of Balbo as a fine addition to the pantheon of WW2 leaders with facial hair. Hitler, Stalin, Lebrun, Petain, de Gaulle, Chamberlain, Balbo...now we just need to get Dewey elected president and Churchill to grow some nice, healthy muttonchops and we can make a wank of it!

[Geekhis Khan]

I don't think so... you have to keep in mind that a lot of the ships in the med fleet where old ships that Britain didn't feel like they needed (at least front line home defense wise)... Eagle and the R class battle wagons wouldn't be particularly helpful; if anything they might be used to improve convoy defense... only Warspite (which was modernized in the '30s) could be considered a capital ship that the British would consider bringing home

They could do better in convoy defense and perhaps avoid the destroyers for bases deal since they would have 20+ extra fleet destroyers available for other tasks... Norway still falls apart though... the Germans had the initiative and air superiority; anything committed additionally is throwing good money after bad

The key to the norwegian campaign is Trondheim and Vaernes airfield. It commands the entire center of the country, and without it the Germans do not have air superiority over the northern two thirds of the country, as their short legged fighters cannot reach it. At least until the germans build new airbases forward, which takes time etc. All the while it is the RAF with air superiority in the north.

How about the Warspite is included in the RN forces off Norway and her battle group runs into the Hipper and the Trondheim force before it can be landed. Hipper gets away but the landing is totally disrupted, and the Norwegians hold Trondheim. This allows them to complete the northern portion of their mobilization and gives the allies a solid base to intervene.

I don't know that this would avoid the fall of Norway, but it would definitely delay it further at the very least, and give the allies a fighting chance.

Hmmm...great points both. The key may well be Trondheim. Wikipedia at least indicates that a direct forcing of the Trondheim fjord was planned by Churchill and others but never authorized. Adding the Warspite battle group might theoretically give the government the political balls to try it.

Still, that's one hell of a gamble. German air assets are already there by OTL's intervention and a narrow fjord will put the ships at serious risk. [Hmmm...evil side thought: would a downed battlewagon or CH in the fjord channel block off Trondheim to shipping, and if so, whom does this benefit?] IF the Entente can take Trondheim there's a chance for holding northern Norway at the neck, but that's a really big IF.

Of course there's a real big possibility I see at the start of the naval maneuvers. If there's a battleship group available in the North Sea to interdict any moves out of Wilhelmshaven, such as the German amphibious moves against the Norwegian Atlantic once they're inevitably discovered, then the British might be able to disrupt the landings at Trondheim, Narvik, etc., this could play a huge part. If German landings up the coast fail then the Entente could land in Trondheim and Narvik virtually unopposed, except by air. No need to "force" the fjord.

The big Q is "would they"? Would the Admiralty behave in this way, or would they take it more cautiously?

Naval experts, I ask thee.

Edit: This site (http://www.naval-history.net/xDKWW2-3909-04RN.htm) is a frickin' gold mine. It seems that Warspite, the CH HMS Arethusa, and other ships were deployed to Scapa Flow in time for Norway OTL, and the carrier Glorius was inbound and intended for the canceled OTL Trondheim attack.

This is big and really does a lot to shoot down my "early interdiction" idea, as cool of a butterfly as that could be. Things are looking OTL unless there are more ideas on Norway...

It was very logical for Italy to enter the war when it did.
It was the preparation before the war that was lacking not to mention a clear stratgeic goal.

By OTL politics, yes it was arguably logical. Mussie had already long decided to cast his lot with Germany and saw the coming war as a way to get his western irredentist claims on the cheap by riding German coat tails. Unlike most of his Generals, or even his son-in-law Ciano, Mussie was certain of German victory and deeply feared that they wouldn't get the chance to jump on France in time to claim the spoils.

Of course that lack of preparation you note, which in 39 even Mussie couldn't completely ignore, made joining the war a major risk. Therefore by Mussolinian plans and goals OTL makes perfect strategic sense.

But this is not OTL and Mussie is dead. Most Italians opposed entry into the war. Most of the generals did as well. Balbo (notably) hated the Germans and predicted disaster. Ciano continually tried OTL without success to steer Mussie towards Neutrality and secretly favored the west. Badoglio opposed the Axis. Federzoni, head of the powerful Nationalist faction, opposed the war. Cavagnari was afraid for his precious fleet. ATL the center of gravity is against joining the war, particularly joining on the side of the Germans who ATL have played glib and dismissive with Italian goals, even more so than they did OTL which was significant. Much of OTL's vocal interventionism was simply political opportunists riding the winds of Mussolinian policy.

There's a vocal minority that favors intervention ATL as well, led by Farinacci. More on them at a later date.

Just finished reading through this TL. Great job! I highly approve of Balbo as a fine addition to the pantheon of WW2 leaders with facial hair. Hitler, Stalin, Lebrun, Petain, de Gaulle, Chamberlain, Balbo...now we just need to get Dewey elected president and Churchill to grow some nice, healthy muttonchops and we can make a wank of it!

Thanks, Expat! :)

LOL, a facial-hair wank. That comment made my morning! :D It's also worth noting that Balbo is the only one of them who has a style of facial hair named for him (http://www.beards.org/balbo.php).

[BlairWitch749]

GK,

I didn't know Warspite was in home waters at that point (she made a lot of exploits in the med right after)

Barham wouldn't be available, because she was still being repaired and retested following torpedo damage

That only leaves HMS Malaya available to be sent home and honestly... she was nowhere near as modernized as her sisters... although a decent battlegroup could be built around her with HMS Coventry (an AA cruiser) HMS Shropshire (a heavy cruiser) and six destroyers or so that would be capable of beating any German task force. I wouldn't want to bring HMS Eagle into those waters, for the same reason Glorious shouldn't have been there... to slow and their aircraft component was terrible

A Malaya battle group could in theory block off Trondheim rather easily... to your question if she was sunk blocking the fjord... it helps the Germans... they where the only ones advancing overland and had a firm hold on Oslo... the British lose an easy way to land reinforcements and the Germans would clear the channel after the British evac anyway

British aircraft committed to Norway in turn reduce their effectiveness in holding the dunkirk beachhead and potentially the battle of britain depending on losses... they will be operating without radar support in a primative theater of operations... its not a good allocation of resources

To be honest I can't see the British leaving the med without a couple of capital ships... even if Balbo isn't as friendly with Adolf as Benny was; Italy still had well stated territorial ambitions in the theater and by 1940 would have 5 battlewagons in the theater with another nearing completion... plus a big army in Libya... leaving that area undefended wouldn't have many supporters amongst the decision makers in London

[Geordie]

I've nothing much to say here, other than:

"Keep up the good work." :)

[Geekhis Khan]

Even at the height of Mussolini's power Fascism was far from a unified movement. The hodge-podge nature of the movement with sources as diverse as Futurists and traditionalists, urbanists and ruralists, modernists and populists, nationalists and regionalists, liberals and syndicalists never managed to present the united front its philosophers envisioned. [...]

[Of these movements] the Strapaese, or "wild ones" movement was founded in the model of the old Blackshirt Squadristi of the provinces. Strapaese intended to create a "true" Fascist literary movement, extolling the rural provincial Squadrismo and lambasting the compromises of the Fascist government. Provincial, populist, and reactionary, the Strapaesists intellectualized the attitudes of the Squadristi, disdaining the urban modernism and Futurism of City Fascism. The Strapaesists felt betrayed by the formal Fascists of party and state, who they felt had compromised and squandered away the energy and potential of early Squadrist Fascisim.

The movement was helmed by Curzio Malaparte, an early Fascist intellectual and long standing critic of Mussolini's moderating and compromising policies. He attacked Fascist luminaries whom he felt had betrayed the "purity" of early squadrismo, most notably former Quadrumvir Italo Balbo. In 1933 he returned to Italy from a short exile in France and was sentenced to confino on Lipari and Ischia, but was quickly pardoned by the intervention of Galeazzo Ciano. [...] With the death of Mussolini Malaparte became a leading advocate of "Second Wave" squadrism and a "return to the glorious purity of the blackshirt". He was a vocal critic of the moderate government of Balbo and Grandi and made an early alliance with Farinacci that lasted into the latter's fall from grace.

Another powerful name in the Strapaese movement was Mino Maccari, editor of the journal Il Selvaggio (the Wild One). Maccari was highly critical of the Mussolinian and later Balbian regimes. He spoke out against the modernity as "bastardly, international, superficial, mechanical--a concoction manipulated by Jewish bankers, pederasts, war profiteers, and bordello owners." He also spoke out against Nazi militarism and ideology, disdaining racialist policy.

With the Balbian political coup and the rise of the moderates the Strapaesists felt more isolated and disgruntled than ever. While the movement was only peripherally allied to the Farinacci and Starace faction in a marriage of convenience, Farinacci's fall from grace cemented the alliance in opposition against the ruling moderates. Farinacci became a third leading voice in the Strapaese movement, sounding a rallying cry that brought other factions into alliance with the Wild Ones. Farinacci and Malaparte quickly became close collaborators despite the latter's sympathy towards Marxian philosophy, but Farinacci soon had a falling-out with Maccari over the former's Germanophilia and open adoration of the Nazi movement. [...]

By 1940 and the tense international and domestic atmosphere of the Sitzkrieg, Farinacci, Malaparte, and Starace had begun to grow in influence within the movement and begun to push a pro-German interventionist agenda. Maccari became more and more isolated and impotent, adhering to the resurgent Second Wave only out of common disdain for the moderates in charge. In an effort to stay relevant in the movement his Il Selvaggio took on a more openly Anti-Semetic and less anti-German tone, but continued to fade into the background as Farinacci's rousing stump speeches and fiery rhetoric began to sway the dispirited Squadristi behind him.

When German forces overran southern Norway in a lightning campaign in April [1940] Farinacci and his cohorts led a long march of Squadrists from the provinces to the outskirts of Rome. While a shadow of the original March on Rome, the psychological effect was immense. Fears of a true Second Wave March on Rome and putsch immediately raced through the streets of Rome and the carabinieri was mobilized at the outskirts to maintain order. Despite obvious tensions and very real fears of a riot, Farinacci and Malaparte worked diligently to keep the crowds restrained. With Starace's masterful pageantry, they staged a parade-like march to the gates of Rome where they made speeches denouncing the current regime in general and Balbo in particular. They then staged an orderly about-face and "triumphant" return to the provinces.

The effect of the staged Second March was profound and had serious repercussions that were not immediately felt. While Balbo and his de facto mouthpiece De Bono denounced the "pro-Nazi hooliganism" the show of force caused many, the king included, to silently wonder whether the moderates and Balbo had the will or influence to control the nation. It was a coup de theatre for Farinacci and a loud return to the public stage, making him suddenly the prince of the radical opposition. Thousands more flocked to his banner, making the Second Wave the most powerful extra-governmental faction in Italy. [...]

[Police Chief Arturo] Bocchini, suspecting Farinacci more and more of revolutionary plans and possible German connections, redoubled his efforts to watch Farinacci and the Strapaesists. [...]

It would all come to a head that summer.

From Second Wave, Fascist Squadrism after Mussolini, by Dr. Arturo Campanelli in the Journal of Political History, Fall 1978.

[LordKalvan]

Geekhis, I am really impressed: you have done an unbelievable amount of research, and appear to have completely mastered the subject. Chapeau

[mrmandias]

That is a fantastic update, reminding us all that Balbo isn't a Mary Sue and faces real difficulties foreign and domestic.

[Whanztastic]

Is Italy really going to 'shoot itself in the boot' with the threat of total war upon their doorstep? I wouldn't be surprised.

[Archangel]

Radical Fascist elements are wrestless, at least until Balbo and the King react vigorously against them. They can be a fifth column in case of war.
Keep it up!:)

[Geekhis Khan]

Geekhis, I am really impressed: you have done an unbelievable amount of research, and appear to have completely mastered the subject. Chapeau

Thank you. I have done a lot of research, and Canistraro's Historical Dictionary of Fascist Italy is full of great little tidbits and obscure players (I wrote the above using it), but I'm miles from mastery here. More that I'm becoming incredibly well versed in a few specific aspects of Fascist Italy. It's a tangled web of chaos that even its true scholars can't fully understand.

That is a fantastic update, reminding us all that Balbo isn't a Mary Sue and faces real difficulties foreign and domestic.

I'm glad! I really hope to avoid a "Balbowank" here. What fascinates me about the historical figure is as much his flaws and failings as his successes.

Is Italy really going to 'shoot itself in the boot' with the threat of total war upon their doorstep? I wouldn't be surprised.

It did so OTL. Unlike Hitler's Germany where industrial capacity and Prussian over-culture allowed the Fuhrer to truly dominate the nation (though it was far more unruly and disorganized than most believe), Fascist Italy remained a seething hotbed of political unrest, unreliable players, and special interests. That's triply the case ATL without Mussolini's widely-accepted "Duce" role as a rallying point. So, yeah, more than one cannon is aimed at Calabria, so to speak.

Radical Fascist elements are wrestless, at least until Balbo and the King react vigorously against them. They can be fifth column in case of war.
Keep it up!:)

Without Mussolini's gravitas and expert political machinations the fringes are fraying and Farinacci is taking full advantage of it. Just because I had Balbo outmaneuver him earlier doesn't mean I intend him as the TL's butt monkey. Needless to say we haven't heard the last of him.

[joea64]

Good point, Geekhis. I'm afraid I let myself underestimate Farinacci, too, when the fact is that after having let Balbo snooker him out of his seat on the Grand Council, he's probably been plotting his revenge this whole while. If and when the Germans do invade, as has been noted before, Farinacci will make a perfect Quisling for them.

[tjvuse]

One of the best alternative history timelines i have ever had the honer to read.:D:D10/10

[lounge60]

The Strapaese "movement" was not a political right wing fascist movement.
Was a cultural movement around the magazine "il selvaggio" (the "primitive",the title was ironic).
Strapaesist spoke about little town traditions, anti-urbanization,early ecologism.
The only thing comune with nazism was the comune taste for figurative art (but the painter favourite of strapaesist was Renato Guttuso,later a note communist).
Figurative art like also at me,but im not a nazist,i swear! ;)

The "enemies" were futurists,bureaucrats,polluters,and the early consumerism.
All this was written with fine sense of humor.

And were not anti semites:much gags and lampoons were aganist Telesio Interlandi,the editor of racist and pro-nazist magazne "La difesa della razza".

Ardengo Soffici,Leo Longanesi,Aldo Palazzeschi,Curzio Malaparte fanatics right wings fascists??? :p

Is a joke?

http://www.lankelot.eu/letteratura/troisio-luciano-strapaese-e-stracitt%C3%A0-%C2%ABil-selvaggio%C2%BB-%C2%ABlitaliano%C2%BB-%C2%AB900%C2%BB.html

http://www.artonweb.it/artemoderna/artedueguerre/articolo3.htm

[Geekhis Khan]

One of the best alternative history timelines i have ever had the honer to read.:D:D10/10

Thanks! I'm humbled for all the good word.

The Strapaese "movement" was not a political right wing fascist movement.
Was a cultural movement around the magazine "il selvaggio" (the "primitive",the title was ironic).
Strapaesist spoke about little town traditions, anti-urbanization,early ecologism.
The only thing comune with nazism was the comune taste for figurative art (but the painter favourite of strapaesist was Renato Guttuso,later a note communist).
Figurative art like also at me,but im not a nazist,i swear! ;)

The "enemies" were futurists,bureaucrats,polluters,and the early consumerism.
All this was written with fine sense of humor.

And were not anti semites:much gags and lampoons were aganist Telesio Interlandi,the editor of racist and pro-nazist magazne "La difesa della razza".

Ardengo Soffici,Leo Longanesi,Aldo Palazzeschi,Curzio Malaparte fanatics right wings fascists??? :p

Is a joke?

http://www.lankelot.eu/letteratura/troisio-luciano-strapaese-e-stracitt%C3%A0-%C2%ABil-selvaggio%C2%BB-%C2%ABlitaliano%C2%BB-%C2%AB900%C2%BB.html

http://www.artonweb.it/artemoderna/artedueguerre/articolo3.htm

Hmmm...this is where the limitations of my Anglophone sources bites me in the ass. In the few paragraphs my book had on them they came across as rather radically opposed to compromises by the regime and favoring the old uncompromisingly violent Squadrist days. Not "Right Wing" in the modern sense, but certainly seemed in keeping with Farinacci's provincial squadrismo beliefs. They seemed the perfect group for Farinacci to rally against Balbo. The quote by Maccari (an OTL critic of Balbo) about "Jewish Bankers and pedarists" was OTL, which made his opposition to Nazism more ironically weird for me. Obviously there's more depth here than my limited sources allow. An edit seems in order.

Since I can't read Italian, could you summarize those websites for me and send me the info in a PM?

[Manfr]

But their cultural movement was also very traditionalistic, chauvinistic and conservative Catholic, even though it openly criticised racist laws.

Maybe they're not going to join Farinacci as full allies, but a marriage of convenience, more aimed against Balbo than in favour of Germany, could happen.

Hey, maybe Farinacci props them up to raise some sort of "Cultural (Counter)Revolution" against "bourgeouis" Balbo, only to see everything spiralling out of control, so that the country ends up with "Black Guards" raiding equally against Balbian moderate monarchists and Farinaccian "Pagan and Alien" nationalsocialists, especially if Germans invade Italy. Add left-wing partisans to the show, and you get a four-way civil war :D

If you want to find some interesting and frightening allies for Farinacci, there's always good old Baron Julius Evola, who wasn't much influential but could still be an interesting ideologist for the group.

The Strapaese "movement" was not a political right wing fascist movement.
Was a cultural movement around the magazine "il selvaggio" (the "primitive",the title was ironic).
Strapaesist spoke about little town traditions, anti-urbanization,early ecologism.
The only thing comune with nazism was the comune taste for figurative art (but the painter favourite of strapaesist was Renato Guttuso,later a note communist).
Figurative art like also at me,but im not a nazist,i swear! ;)

The "enemies" were futurists,bureaucrats,polluters,and the early consumerism.
All this was written with fine sense of humor.

And were not anti semites:much gags and lampoons were aganist Telesio Interlandi,the editor of racist and pro-nazist magazne "La difesa della razza".

Ardengo Soffici,Leo Longanesi,Aldo Palazzeschi,Curzio Malaparte fanatics right wings fascists??? :p

Is a joke?

http://www.lankelot.eu/letteratura/troisio-luciano-strapaese-e-stracitt%C3%A0-%C2%ABil-selvaggio%C2%BB-%C2%ABlitaliano%C2%BB-%C2%AB900%C2%BB.html

http://www.artonweb.it/artemoderna/artedueguerre/articolo3.htm

[BlairWitch749]

Thanks! I'm humbled for all the good word.



Hmmm...this is where the limitations of my Anglophone sources bites me in the ass. In the few paragraphs my book had on them they came across as rather radically opposed to compromises by the regime and favoring the old uncompromisingly violent Squadrist days. Not "Right Wing" in the modern sense, but certainly seemed in keeping with Farinacci's provincial squadrismo beliefs. They seemed the perfect group for Farinacci to rally against Balbo. The quote by Maccari (an OTL critic of Balbo) about "Jewish Bankers and pedarists" was OTL, which made his opposition to Nazism more ironically weird for me. Obviously there's more depth here than my limited sources allow. An edit seems in order.

Since I can't read Italian, could you summarize those websites for me and send me the info in a PM?

You know GK, Balbo could silence his critics by an invasion of Yugoslavia (but for god's sake keep them out of Greece)... the terrain through the Lubijana gab is good for mobile warfare, and the Italians can play up their ethnic divides and the British and French are too occupied with Germany to bother them... at the same time Balbo would need to make a pledge in blood to Hitler not to mess with Romania... nothing would have Stuka's over Turin and Genoa faster than that

[Geekhis Khan]

But their cultural movement was also very traditionalistic, chauvinistic and conservative Catholic, even though it openly criticised racist laws.

Maybe they're not going to join Farinacci as full allies, but a marriage of convenience, more aimed against Balbo than in favour of Germany, could happen.

Hey, maybe Farinacci props them up to raise some sort of "Cultural (Counter)Revolution" against "bourgeouis" Balbo, only to see everything spiralling out of control, so that the country ends up with "Black Guards" raiding equally against Balbian moderate monarchists and Farinaccian "Pagan and Alien" nationalsocialists, especially if Germans invade Italy. Add left-wing partisans to the show, and you get a four-way civil war :D

That's sort of where I'm leaning now, and sort of where I was heading before too. The Second Wave is by nature a marriage of convinience.

If you want to find some interesting and frightening allies for Farinacci, there's always good old Baron Julius Evola, who wasn't much influential but could still be an interesting ideologist for the group.

Good Lord! That's guy's a real life Pulp villain! Even the name Baron Julius Evola sounds menacing.

You know GK, Balbo could silence his critics by an invasion of Yugoslavia (but for god's sake keep them out of Greece)... the terrain through the Lubijana gab is good for mobile warfare, and the Italians can play up their ethnic divides and the British and French are too occupied with Germany to bother them... at the same time Balbo would need to make a pledge in blood to Hitler not to mess with Romania... nothing would have Stuka's over Turin and Genoa faster than that

The only problem is that ATL the Germans are purposefully propping up Yugoslavia as a potential ally both to counter Italian interests in the disputed Balkans and to protect their southern flank. Invading Yugoslavia has the potential here of inviting war with the Germans ITTL, ironically.

Not to mention that while the terrain is better than Greece's, it's no picnic either.

[bbgator]

First of all, let me say this is a fantastic timeline. The amount of detail and knowledge is staggering.

About the Norwegian Invasion. OTL, the Royal Navy had an overwhelming superiority available. Historically, the battleships RODNEY, VALIANT and WARSPITE, plus the battlecruisers RENOWN and REPULSE. Additionally, there are the aircraft carriers ARK ROYAL, GLORIOUS and FURIOUS with a large number of modern heavy and light cruisers and destroyers.

The HIPPER group just missed running into a battlegroup lead by RENOWN, in fact GLOWWORM had been detached from RENOWN's screen to search for a man overboard. RENOWN did have a short engagement with SCHARNHORST and GNEISENAU, both of which turned and ran after GNEISENAU's fire control was damaged.

And of course, WARSPITE lead the destroyers into Narvik for the Second Battle and was partly responsible for the destruction of half of the German destroyer force, plus one submarine.

The UK withdrew most of the Mediterranean Fleet for use elsewhere prior to the Norwegian Campaign and did not begin bringing it back to pre-war levels until May 1940. In this TL, with a genuinely neutral Italy, there would be no need to return any capital ships to the Med Fleet and in fact, with the Med Fleet reduced to such low levels, you might see Cunningham relieving Forbes as CinC Home Fleet instead of Tovey.

Gator

[BlairWitch749]

The only problem is that ATL the Germans are purposefully propping up Yugoslavia as a potential ally both to counter Italian interests in the disputed Balkans and to protect their southern flank. Invading Yugoslavia has the potential here of inviting war with the Germans ITTL, ironically.

Not to mention that while the terrain is better than Greece's, it's no picnic either.

Italy could play up ethnic divides in the country though, or have special operations launch a decapitation attack against the government, then roll on Yugoslavia..

The hill country that limits maneuver can be generally avoided since the key objectives are in the vallies... ie a two pronged offensive out of Venice and Albania should be able to capture most of the major cities without getting themselves involved in mountain warfare

[Manfr]

Good Lord! That's guy's a real life Pulp villain! Even the name Baron Julius Evola sounds menacing.


Baron Julius Caesar Evola, please :D

[Geekhis Khan]

First of all, let me say this is a fantastic timeline. The amount of detail and knowledge is staggering.

About the Norwegian Invasion. OTL, the Royal Navy had an overwhelming superiority available. Historically, the battleships RODNEY, VALIANT and WARSPITE, plus the battlecruisers RENOWN and REPULSE. Additionally, there are the aircraft carriers ARK ROYAL, GLORIOUS and FURIOUS with a large number of modern heavy and light cruisers and destroyers.

The HIPPER group just missed running into a battlegroup lead by RENOWN, in fact GLOWWORM had been detached from RENOWN's screen to search for a man overboard. RENOWN did have a short engagement with SCHARNHORST and GNEISENAU, both of which turned and ran after GNEISENAU's fire control was damaged.

And of course, WARSPITE lead the destroyers into Narvik for the Second Battle and was partly responsible for the destruction of half of the German destroyer force, plus one submarine.

The UK withdrew most of the Mediterranean Fleet for use elsewhere prior to the Norwegian Campaign and did not begin bringing it back to pre-war levels until May 1940. In this TL, with a genuinely neutral Italy, there would be no need to return any capital ships to the Med Fleet and in fact, with the Med Fleet reduced to such low levels, you might see Cunningham relieving Forbes as CinC Home Fleet instead of Tovey.

Gator

Thanks, bbgator, and welcome! :)

Good info. I'd noticed the same naval superiority OTL as well as I researched into it. The RN screwed the pooch on Norway OTL and I have no reason to expect differently ATL. Interesting thoughts on Cunningham going to the home fleet. Could have interesting ramifications. Any thoughts on who if anyone might command in the Pacific?

Italy could play up ethnic divides in the country though, or have special operations launch a decapitation attack against the government, then roll on Yugoslavia..

The hill country that limits maneuver can be generally avoided since the key objectives are in the vallies... ie a two pronged offensive out of Venice and Albania should be able to capture most of the major cities without getting themselves involved in mountain warfare

That was basically the OTL plan Mussie had proposed and had they not been diverted by stupid Greek adventurism would have been done OTL as the "Parallel War". I'm really tempted there. The problem, however, remains Germany. The peace in the Balkans is very tentative here. Germany has showed interest in propping up Yugo to secure their SE flank. An Italian invasion there threatens that. Add in the fact that Hungary will almost certainly be involved and you threaten land routes to Romanian oil. Even OTL German worries of that flank made them very keep on diverting Italy towards Greece, and that was with their allies.

It's a very tempting gamble, though, for myself or for Balbo. I'm still thinking it over.

Baron Julius Caesar Evola, please :D

Of course...;)

[BlairWitch749]

That was basically the OTL plan Mussie had proposed and had they not been diverted by stupid Greek adventurism would have been done OTL as the "Parallel War". I'm really tempted there. The problem, however, remains Germany. The peace in the Balkans is very tentative here. Germany has showed interest in propping up Yugo to secure their SE flank. An Italian invasion there threatens that. Add in the fact that Hungary will almost certainly be involved and you threaten land routes to Romanian oil. Even OTL German worries of that flank made them very keep on diverting Italy towards Greece, and that was with their allies.

It's a very tempting gamble, though, for myself or for Balbo. I'm still thinking it over.

It wouldn't be the first time Italy and Germany butted heads over spheres of influence (Austria). Italy could wait till Germany hurls herself against the west (May 1940) and then use that as the signal to decapitate the Yugoslavian government and launch an offensive... they can make the necessary apologies to Germany, and offer a treaty saying they have no interest in Romania

With all his divisions (more or less) committed to fight France, Adolf would be stuck with a fait complit if the Italians can accomplish their objectives within 2 months

[bbgator]

If Cunningham relieves Forbes, that would leave Tovey as the logical choice for CINC Mediterranean Fleet, which leaves a fairly senior officer in command of a much reduced force. So, obviously, he is available for the Far East.

Max Horton would also be available, but he would more likely be a good candidate to be CINC Far East instead of Brooke-Popham.

You also have Somerville on hand. With a quiet Mediterranean, the creation of a permanent Force H with battleships and aircraft carriers is unlikely.

Finally, if Cunningham does not relieve Forbes, you have Tovey going to Home Fleet, ABC Cunningham available for the Eastern Fleet, Somerville for Force H or a equivilent command and J H D Cunningham for the reduced Med Fleet.

Other officers available are Lancelot Hood and William Whitworth, both of whom had commanded the Battlecruiser Squadron.

So, you have a fair stable of candidates. A lot will depend on how the Royal Navy organizes itself in light of a neutral Italy.

As far as the RN screwing the pooch in Norway OTL, I think a lot of the blame for their initial deployments lies with London, not the men on the spot. The Navy was caught wrong footed, but still performed extremely well, as the run in with SCHARNHORST and GNEISENAU, or the two battles of Narvik will attest. Even the loss of GLORIOUS can be attributed to the bloody mindedness of her CO rather that a strategic area. And even there, the battle resulted with both of Germany's major units being out of action for a considerable period.

regards,
Gator

[lounge60]

Thanks! I'm humbled for all the good word.



Hmmm...this is where the limitations of my Anglophone sources bites me in the ass. In the few paragraphs my book had on them they came across as rather radically opposed to compromises by the regime and favoring the old uncompromisingly violent Squadrist days. Not "Right Wing" in the modern sense, but certainly seemed in keeping with Farinacci's provincial squadrismo beliefs. They seemed the perfect group for Farinacci to rally against Balbo. The quote by Maccari (an OTL critic of Balbo) about "Jewish Bankers and pedarists" was OTL, which made his opposition to Nazism more ironically weird for me. Obviously there's more depth here than my limited sources allow. An edit seems in order.

Since I can't read Italian, could you summarize those websites for me and send me the info in a PM?
Listen,i don't write well English,but i try to explain.
Maccari and others "Strapaesists came from squadrism,but squadrism was many things.
You must not imagine nazis SA-brown shirt.
Some were squadrist to defend the private property,others because after the war some communist spat on veterans,others to make noise,others for
misunderstanding patriottism.
And from other way opposites to squadrist in the "reds regions" like Tuscany (Strapaesists were Tuscans) were well armed and fanatics communists groups;was not a nice walk.
For we democratics of today were two rival gangs,but in those times the "silent majority", the moderates,were for squadrists.
Strapaesists was not particulary different fron others squadrists,was not more fanatics,and remember Italo Balbo was also a squadrist in those turbolent days.
For the rest,Maccari and his friends fighting with the weapon of the irony aganist the last fashions,the destructions of old traditions,the frenetic modern life,the technocracy.
Their ideals?
A little town with a bell tower,a major dress in corduroy,country foods,figurative arts,a more slow life.
Is probably that Maccary have said things like "Jewish bankers" or "pederarists",but not different things was said also in USA or in UK in 30s.
When the racial laws came,"Il Selvaggio" make many lampoons aganist racists like Telesio Interlandi,the editor of "La difesa della razza",the racist and pro-nazist magazine.
So,believe me,strapaesists are not your (bad) guys.
P.S.
From google traslation



Mino Maccari (Siena, 24 November 1898 - Rome, June 16, 1989) was a writer, painter, journalist and publisher, engraver and designer Italian satirist.

Born November 24, 1898 into a family of petty bourgeoisie Siena. Since small and outgoing with a lively visual intelligence, has led to the free drawing with charcoal, but his father, a professor of letters, looking at all ways of directing it towards the humanities. Having completed his secondary education he enrolled at the university. Interventionist as many young people of his time, participating in only nineteen years as an officer of artillery in the Great War.

At the end of the conflict resumed his studies in Siena in 1920 and graduated in law, began working at the Chambers of Dini in Colle Val d'Elsa, where the family originated and where he spent his childhood at the relatives in their free time from work is dedicated to his true passion: painting.

These moments, outside the established schemes, in the first attempts with painting and engraving, which feels the need to give more meaning to his life. This very troubled period of the first postwar Maccari is in very fertile ground for its lively character and mocking polemic, which leads him both to attend to social unrest in the country, both as a secondary character not to march on Rome in 1922.

In 1924 he was called by Angiolo Bencini to cure the print magazine The Wild, where they are published her first recordings. After several years of coexistence between work at the newspaper and the law firm in early 1926 left the legal profession to take over the Wild, which will take until 1942.

The Wild, openly pro-fascist funded from the early publications from the most vulgar and backward agrarian squads, under his direction at least in terms of certain formal amendment provocative, after a brief internal struggle for normalization also sought after by Benito Mussolini Matteotti.

Maccari himself will publish, in the bottom titled "Farewell to the past", the new address of the Wild, who no longer wishes to be an example of a fascist squads, but a magazine that has to devote to art, satire and to laugh policy, following a tradition of village and mocking appearance but in fact subtly educated and standards.

With the transfer of the editorial staff of the Wild in 1925 from Colle di Val d'Elsa Florence, Maccari Ardengo worked with Cuddly, Ottone Rosai and Achilles League. Meanwhile, over the years between 1927-1930, is made known to the general public as an artist participating in various national exhibitions.

Also in 1930 Maccari works in Turin The Press as managing editor and director as the writer Curzio Malaparte.

Its presence in the cultural world and publishing of the fascist regime is very intense, she writes and collaborates with several magazines: Quadrivio, literary Italy, Italian and Omnibus Leo Longanesi then, during the war, on the primacy of Coopers and thereafter yet, on World of Pannunzio, to document Frederick Valleys.

Also its large graphic production which runs from the album Vallecchi (1925), The sport of Strapaese (1928) to Linoleum (1931). Maccari introduced in 1934 the Old Bal Bullier Antonio Baldini and in 1942 published the Album folder, followed by as when it's raining outside and the superfluous shown.

For his painting full of obvious color accents and fast strokes, drawing violent as the Treaty of live graphic sign of his recordings, is recognized by critics complete artist. After World War II continues to gain recognition, thanks to a prolific creative work for some solo shows in 1962 he was also made president of the San Luca and manages to get a solo show at Gallery 63 in New York City.

[Geekhis Khan]

Thanks BW, Gator, and Lounge. I appreciate the inputs and information. :)

[lounge60]

But their cultural movement was also very traditionalistic, chauvinistic and conservative Catholic, even though it openly criticised racist laws.

Maybe they're not going to join Farinacci as full allies, but a marriage of convenience, more aimed against Balbo than in favour of Germany, could happen.

Hey, maybe Farinacci props them up to raise some sort of "Cultural (Counter)Revolution" against "bourgeouis" Balbo, only to see everything spiralling out of control, so that the country ends up with "Black Guards" raiding equally against Balbian moderate monarchists and Farinaccian "Pagan and Alien" nationalsocialists, especially if Germans invade Italy. Add left-wing partisans to the show, and you get a four-way civil war :D

If you want to find some interesting and frightening allies for Farinacci, there's always good old Baron Julius Evola, who wasn't much influential but could still be an interesting ideologist for the group.
But strapaesists were only journalists,writers,cartoonists,what they could do? write artcles aganist Balbo,no more of this.
And Maccari and his friends would send a type like Evola in a mental hospital,for sure.
Strapaesist were not aganist bourgeois,but for country, solid,old fashioned bourgeois.
If strapaesists were Americans their ideals was the small town all Red-white-blue,like in a Frank Capra movies.

[bbgator]

Any thing for a near neighbor.

Gator

[CCA]

You're definitely right about you having succesfully avoided a "Balbowank" (awesome term btw)

It seems as if there are more centres of power other than Balbo and a Balbo-less government is more than possible


Glad to have finally caught up after so long out of the AH circle anyway. Great work and keep it going!

[mailinutile2]

I think that the main problem about the Strapaese question is that Balbo is in charge.
let me explain.
You wanted to introduce some antagonist movement making troubles against the central power, advocating a return to "pure" ideals (both in the sense of "rural" and "not-compromising"), and trying to achieve some some power for the local fascist istitutions "against" the central roman government.
Nothing wrong with that: it is plausible and OTL it was quite a problem for Mussolini. OTL it was called the Rais from the provinces, meaning the fascist local chiefs having a base of power on a provincial basis (who were the most active agitators and the main responsible of the march on Rome) who felt defrauded of their power by the central government (expecially since fascist movement was istitutionalized as fascist national party-PNF).
The main problem here is that OTL Balbo himself was the head of such a movement (and indeed menaced a "second sweep" to clean the "Roman whore-house" [his words]).
TTL balbo is obviously on the opposite front, so it is hard to find a decent leader.
Farinacci & C do not fit very much with the "rural" image.
I suggest dropping a bit the "rural" issue and focusing instead on the "interventist" issue (which also has the Arditi precedent during the Great War), meaning Spanish war veterans and activists.
Hard-line futurists and pro-industrialization technocrats would be one of the main supporters instead of a political enemy of such a movement.

On the other hand if you wanted to present the opposition as an unstable patchwork of different souls ready to fell apart, that was a good description :p

[Geekhis Khan]

First, thank you to Manfr, lounge, and mail for the input on Strapaese and all. My sources really only briefly brushed over them and in a way that suggested they were more in tune with the rabble rousing provincial Ras and against the folks Balbo has allied with. Note that Balbo's ties to the Squadrists have been very loose since early thirties (OTL) with his fast climb within the government, so while he was once one of their spokesmen, he's seen as a "traitor" to the cause in the more extreme circles (OTL). So I pictured the disgruntled extreme radical squadrists as his main enemies. As my sources indicated Strapaese identified with them, it seemed a natural fit. Obviously, my sources let me down here, as their ties to the squads were more artistic than political from what you all tell me. I'll do a major retcon here shortly dealing with the situation. I'll probably still have some ties to Malaparte at least in the loosest sense, but he's out as a major ally of Farinacci's Second Wave.

Some industrialists could be an issue, but still, the confindustria is ATL one of Balbo's main political bases (I based this on his OTL support from the Ferrara Agraria). Are there any notable industrialists that would have dropped Balbo for Farinacci? Since Balbo's buying weapons left and right and deals with Britain have kept the goods flowing I'd think most would still support him (OTL the industrialists were hesitant to support Mussolini's entry into war since the trade would be disrupted and their factories would get bombed).

That leaves some of the provincial Ras. Maybe Julius Evola as a philosopher. Maybe some veterans or a faction in the army (Spoiler alert: I have a couple of Generals under consideration). Any other potential factions out there?

[lounge60]

About Malaparte,the man was extremely corrutible.
A cheeckbooks was sufficent for change his mind.
If you want anti-Balbo/pro-nazist movement the only man is Farinacci,maybe with Pavolini.
Bottai for sure was not enthusiast of Balbo,but the problem with him was that not was pro-nazi enough.
Evola?
For sure aganist "materialist" and "Americanist" Balbo,but in 30s Evola was only an lonely and isolated intellectual.
Gentile? Not enthusiast of Balbo,but would not compromise;was an "Accademic" and Senator..
Strapaesist? maybe the magazine "Il Selvaggio" could write aganist technocracy and modern spirit of Balbo,but for them nazis was worse.

Sincerely i see only Farinacci(with beyond the money of Nazi Germany),Pavolini,Giovanni Preziosi (a real evil man)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Preziosi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Preziosi),, and secondary charapters like the journalist Giorgio Pini http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgio_Pini (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgio_Pini)
Niccolò Gianni http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Giani (use google traslator)
maybe Ettore Muti (the little Balbo)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ettore_Muti (but for Muti im not sure,he don't like Farinacci),
and young men like Pino Romualdi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pino_Romualdi
I can see a "Mussolinian movement with Farinacci like Leader,and all this peoples.
But with small different groups inside (we Italians are damned individualists..one italian is one man two italians two political parties).

The Army was 100% loyal to King,and the Italian Army have not tradition in coup d'etat.
Maybe a faction of Milizia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackshirts

[Geekhis Khan]

About Malaparte,the man was extremely corrutible.
A cheeckbooks was sufficent for change his mind.
If you want anti-Balbo/pro-nazist movement the only man is Farinacci,maybe with Pavolini.
Bottai for sure was not enthusiast of Balbo,but the problem with him was that not was pro-nazi enough.
Evola?
For sure aganist "materialist" and "Americanist" Balbo,but in 30s Evola was only an lonely and isolated intellectual.
Gentile? Not enthusiast of Balbo,but would not compromise;was an "Accademic" and Senator..
Strapaesist? maybe the magazine "Il Selvaggio" could write aganist technocracy and modern spirit of Balbo,but for them nazis was worse.

Sincerely i see only Farinacci(with beyond the money of Nazi Germany),Pavolini,Giovanni Preziosi (a real evil man)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Preziosi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Preziosi),, and secondary charapters like the journalist Giorgio Pini http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgio_Pini (http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgio_Pini)
Niccolò Gianni http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Giani (use google traslator)
maybe Ettore Muti (the little Balbo)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ettore_Muti (but for Muti im not sure,he don't like Farinacci),
and young men like Pino Romualdi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pino_Romualdi
I can see a "Mussolinian movement with Farinacci like Leader,and all this peoples.
But with small different groups inside (we Italians are damned individualists..one italian is one man two italians two political parties).

The Army was 100% loyal to King,and the Italian Army have not tradition in coup d'etat.
Maybe a faction of Milizia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackshirts

Great stuff, thanks!

[Geekhis Khan]

OOC: Ok, all, thanks to new information provided by lounge, manfr, mailinutle, and others I am doing a massive expansion and retcon of the previous section. Enjoy and please comment:

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Even at the height of Mussolini's power Fascism was far from a unified movement. The hodge-podge nature of the movement with sources as diverse as Futurists and traditionalists, Stracittists and Strapaesists, urbanists and ruralists, modernists and populists, nationalists and regionalists, liberals and syndicalists never managed to present the united front its philosophers envisioned.

With the ascension of the Balbian regime these differences were exacerbated. While charismatic and possessed of political skill, Balbo lacked Mussolini's sheer brilliance for political maneuvering. Whereas the "Duce" had through guile, empty promises, flattery, patronizing criticism, shifting opinions, and flat out lies maintained a carefully engineered system of self-checking rivalries, Balbo's boisterous and overt nature and open willingness to pick favorites made him several bitter enemies. While Balbo's political maneuvering skill had certainly grown since his near reckless days as Aeronautica Chief, he lacked Mussolini's subtlety and subterfuge.

Balbian enemies were many, but disorganized and generally at odds with each other. Rivalries precluded cooperation and close monitoring and preemptive actions by OVRA nipped many potential second wave movements in the bud. Yet even Bocchini's best spies were not enough to stem the ugly turn in anti-Balbianism that came with the start of the European war. Balbo-Grandian neutrality chaffed at the more radical Fascists, invoking the interventionist passions of 1914 which had served as Fascism's incubator. Soon Balbo, as much by virtue of his position of power as to any personal dislikes, became the mutual focus of many of these disparate factions. Provincial Rais, many of whom felt openly betrayed by former Quadrumvir Balbo's willingness to compromise with "reactionary elements", were often the most openly disgruntled with many calling for a Second Wave March on Rome.

Balbo's most bitter enemy, the recently ousted Grand Council chairman Roberto Farinacci, saw in this growing dissent his chance for a political comeback. Openly pro-German and antisemitic, Farinacci idolized the Nazis and lamented the breaking of the Axis. With the aid of similarly discredited Fascist Party secretary Achille Starace, Farinacci courted these provincial Rases, fanning the flames of interventionism and anti-Balbianism. Farinacci secretly provided the Rais with firearms and vehicles through a series of back channels and middlemen, and Starace legitimized the arming through an overt "expansion" of the MVSN, greatly expanding the militia and bringing more and more once recalcitrant provincial squadsristas under the MVSN blanket.

OVRA noted this development with concern. Bocchini made Balbo aware of this trend and was awarded more independent power to monitor the groups. Bocchini also noted Farinacci's presence in many of these developments (and his sudden wealth) with deep concern, yet Farinacci covered his tracks well. Suspecting foreign, i.e. German involvement, Bocchini met with SIM agents. SIM was suspicious as well, and as loyal followers of the king and nation, the antimonarchist rhetoric of the growing Second Wave had earned their attention as well. Unbeknownst even to Balbo or the king, Bocchini and SIM counterintelligence chief Donato Tripiccione began a clandestine joint counterintelligence-counterrevolutionary operation intended to root out the aims and means of the Second Wave.

Farinacci continued his plans, seeking to expand and legitimize the Second Wave and secure himself as the head of the group. Farinacci briefly courted the Strapaese, or "wild ones" movement, an artistic and literary movement founded in the model of the old Blackshirt Squadristi of the provinces. Strapaese intended to create a "true" Fascist literary movement, extolling the rural provincial Squadrismo and lambasting the compromises of the Fascist government. Provincial, populist, and radical, the Strapaesists intellectualized the attitudes of the Squadristi, disdaining the urban modernism and Futurism of City Fascism. The Strapaesists felt betrayed by the formal Fascists of party and state, who they felt had compromised and squandered away the energy and potential of early Squadrist Fascisim.

The movement was helmed by Curzio Malaparte, an early Fascist intellectual and long standing critic of Mussolini's moderating and compromising policies. He attacked Fascist luminaries whom he felt had betrayed the "purity" of early squadrismo, most notably former Quadrumvir Italo Balbo. In 1933 he returned to Italy from a short exile in France and was sentenced to confino on Lipari and Ischia, but was quickly pardoned by the intervention of Galeazzo Ciano. With the death of Mussolini Malaparte became a leading advocate of Second Wave squadrism and a "return to the glorious purity of the blackshirt". He was a vocal critic of the moderate government of Balbo and Grandi and made an early alliance with many Rais.

Another powerful name in the Strapaese movement was Mino Maccari, editor of the journal Il Selvaggio (the Wild One). Maccari was highly critical of the Mussolinian and later Balbian regimes. He spoke out against the modernity as "bastardly, international, superficial, mechanical--a concoction manipulated by Jewish bankers, pederasts, war profiteers, and bordello owners." He also spoke out against Nazi militarism and ideology, disdaining racialist policy and was highly suspect of the pro-German Farinacci's sudden interest in the movement.

As Farinacci soon discovered, Strapaese was more interested in art and literature than overt politics and Il Selvaggio was more interested in poetry than political sedition. Maccari's openly anti-Nazi stance won out and the Strapaesists as individuals never became more than peripherally sympathetic to the Second Wave. Malaparte, however, became increasingly radicalized and his rivalry with Maccari over the spiritual "helm" of Strapaese came to a head in an angry exchange of words and a slammed door. Malaparte would splinter off from the movement and become one of the principle philosophers of the Second Wave. Farinacci and Malaparte quickly became collaborators despite the latter's sympathy towards Marxist philosophy [1].

It was through Malaparte that Farinacci would meet the man who would become known as the Bishop of the Second Wave, Guilio "Julius Caesar" Evola. A major proponent of racist theory and an overt antisemite and admirer of Hitler and the Nazis, the intellectual and philosopher found in Farinacci's movement a willing vehicle for his theories of race and politics. While he proposed a more "spiritual" concept of race distinct from Hitler's "material" racism, his philosophies, expounded through Farinacci's Il Regime Fascista and Malaparte's reboot of the prewar newspaper La Squilla, were overtly antisemitic and sympathetic to Naziism. He became the voice of the Second Wave, urging the "true" Fascists to rise up and depose the "Jewish-bourgeois alliance" that had "muted the mighty voice of Fascism."

By 1940 and the tense international and domestic atmosphere of the Sitzkrieg, Farinacci, Evola, Malaparte, and Starace had begun to grow in influence within the movement and begun to push a pro-German interventionist agenda. Farinacci's rousing stump speeches and fiery rhetoric backed by Evola's demagogic rhetoric began to sway more and more of the dispirited Squadristi behind him. More names in Fascism began to flock to the Second Wave banner: the violently antisemitic Giovanni Preziosi and Niccolò Gianni, the more intellectually antisemitic Alessandro Pavolini and Paolo Orano, fanatical revisionists and political opportunists like Carlo Scorza, and even Mussolinian journalist Giorgio Pini.

When German forces overran southern Norway in a lightning campaign in April [1940] Farinacci and his cohorts led a long march of Squadrists from the provinces to the outskirts of Rome. The speed and suddenness of this march, due in part to the unplanned and opportunistic nature of its quick execution, caught even OVRA by surprise. While a disorganized shadow of the original March on Rome, the psychological effect was immense. Fears of a true Second Wave March on Rome and putsch immediately raced through the streets of Rome and the carabinieri was mobilized at the outskirts to maintain order. Despite obvious tensions and very real fears of a riot, Farinacci and Starace worked diligently to keep the crowds restrained. With Starace's masterful pageantry, they staged a parade-like march to the gates of Rome where they made speeches denouncing the current regime in general and Balbo in particular. They then staged an orderly about-face and "triumphant" return to the provinces.

The effect of the staged Second March was profound and had serious repercussions that were not immediately felt. While Balbo and his de facto mouthpiece Capo de Governo De Bono denounced the "pro-Nazi hooliganism" the show of force caused many, the king included, to silently wonder whether the moderates and Balbo had the will or influence to control the nation. It was a coup de theatre for Farinacci and a loud return to the public stage, making him suddenly the prince of the radical opposition. Thousands more flocked to his banner, making the Second Wave the most powerful extra-governmental faction in Italy.

As German successes piled up and Pakt victory seemed assured, the Second Wave -- by now an alliance of convenience between interventionists, Germanophiles, radical squadrists, antisemites, provincial interests, and revolutionaries and opportunists of all stripes -- became more overtly vocal and revolutionary in tone. Small outbreaks of violence were noted and a few small towns began to fall under the de facto control of the Second Wave. The carabinieri were on alert and even the army began to plan for contingencies.

It would all come to a head that summer.

From Second Wave, Fascist Squadrism after Mussolini, by Dr. Arturo Campanelli in the Journal of Political History, Fall 1978.

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Note a piè di pagina:

1 – OTL he went on to join the Communist Party post-war. ATL he's taking, at least at the moment, a more National Socialist course.

[Herr Frage]

Hmm, so the opposition is preparing to make its move.

Looks like this will be the great battle for the soul of Italy. I predict a decisive Balbo victory with Farinacci fleeing to Germany to return later as a Quissling.

[mailinutile2]

Dear Author,
very good chapter.
probably the newspaper La difesa della razza (Telesio Interlandi, 1938) could fit with the opposition agenda

[Geekhis Khan]

Hmm, so the opposition is preparing to make its move.

Looks like this will be the great battle for the soul of Italy. I predict a decisive Balbo victory with Farinacci fleeing to Germany to return later as a Quissling.

Could be, could be...


Dear Author,
very good chapter.
probably the newspaper La difesa della razza (Telesio Interlandi, 1938) could fit with the opposition agenda

And thank you for the help in researching it!

Thanks also for pointing out la difesa della razza. Does that translate to"The defense of the Ras?"

[cumbria]

Balbo should bring Farinacci into government and institute the second wave to revolutionise Italy.
They could nationalise the entire defence industry and make if effecient and streamline armaments production.
This would prepare them and radicalise the Italian people for war.
With no ridiculous forays into the Balkans the Italians could concentrate on minor moves against France to restore their iridentist claims when France capitulates and major moves against Malta and Egypt.

[mailinutile2]

Thanks also for pointing out la difesa della razza. Does that translate to"The defense of the Ras?"

was that a pun, or play on word? :p
The main topic was defending the "italian race" (whatever the heck it is) from "punic" (a.k.a. "semitic", but a flavour of "Carthage", too) and "african" influences

[CCA]

[QUOTE=Geekhis Khan;3495279]Could be, could be...
QUOTE]


AS this TL is called "Viva Balbo!" I find this exceedingly likely...

[Geekhis Khan]

Balbo should bring Farinacci into government and institute the second wave to revolutionise Italy.
They could nationalise the entire defence industry and make if effecient and streamline armaments production.
This would prepare them and radicalise the Italian people for war.
With no ridiculous forays into the Balkans the Italians could concentrate on minor moves against France to restore their iridentist claims when France capitulates and major moves against Malta and Egypt.

Welcome aboard, cumbria! :)

Thanks for replying. To address your suggestions:

As to implementing the Second Wave, while certain aspects make sense on paper that ignores a lot of the realities of Italian politics of the time. Balbo indeed wanted to revolutionize the military (OTL and ATL), but simply put he'd never get away with it. Fascism only "ruled" at the tacit permission of the army...the monarchist, traditionalist army. Try and push them too much farther than Mussolini did OTL and you risk losing that support and thereby losing your power. The MVSN would last about three days against the regular army if the king or the marshals lost faith in the administration. It also ignores the fact that Balbo and Farinacci are arch enemies. Politically it'd be like the Obama administration inviting the Tea Party to help them reform the Federal Government.

Similar issues with the armaments industry. ATL it's one of Balbo's power bases and doing that bites the hands that feed him. Also, given Fascism's OTL record on management I doubt they'd do any better and streamlining things. Despite all their propaganda about efficiency and streamlining and thinking as one, Fascism was a squabbling and inefficient bureaucratic labyrinth placed on top of an already labyrinthine Liberal bureaucracy.

Attacks against France, even without Balkan distractions, will still be extremely difficult due to the same factors as OTL: horrible terrain, utter lack of readiness, lack of modern (or often any) equipment, and serious leadership issues. Balbo's setting things in motion to improve the situations there, but it's a long slow process that will take years, not months. Attacking Malta and Egypt, while if done properly and in a timely manner could net much better results than OTL. Yet this still screws you in the long run since eventually the RN will dominate the Med by sheer size and ability and cut off any gains. Then they retake them at their leisure while you slowly starve awaiting invasion. At best this is a less humiliating loss.

was that a pun, or play on word? :p
The main topic was defending the "italian race" (whatever the heck it is) from "punic" (a.k.a. "semitic", but a flavour of "Carthage", too) and "african" influences

:D...

And great, thank you for the info. Good pic and this mag really seems to fit the bill for a Second Wave publication.

[Geekhis Khan]

AS this TL is called "Viva Balbo!" I find this exceedingly likely...

You never know...I might just want to rename it "Viva Farinacci". :D

Okay, I just threw up a little even typing that.

[Vince]

You never know...I might just want to rename it "Viva Farinacci". :D

Okay, I just threw up a little even typing that.

This isn't one of those situations you mentioned before where you rolled a 12 so Farinacci overthrows the government? :eek:

[mailinutile2]

This isn't one of those situations you mentioned before where you rolled a 12 so Farinacci overthrows the government? :eek:

especially since Starace, too, is involved.
During Fascism, when Starace was in power (president of PNF) he was so "respected" that people used to sing in a low voice:

"qui giace Starace,
vestito d'orbace
di nulla capace
requiescat in pace"

roughly translated:

here lies Starace
wearing a suit of badly wovel wool*
capable to do nothing
may he stay dead**

---------------------------------------------------------------------
* orbace is a kind of wool from sardinian sheeps which is very uncomfortable.
Starace tried to promote it on the basis that "autarchic is good"
everybody refused to wear it

**but since we are italians, and thus catholics, also may be translated as "may his soul rest in peace".
[Notice that Starace was alive and in charge at the time]
also, there is a deliberate mispell (it should be in pacem instead of in pace).
but since we are italians, we allowed to do it. :D

[Geekhis Khan]

This isn't one of those situations you mentioned before where you rolled a 12 so Farinacci overthrows the government? :eek:

:cool:

especially since Starace, too, is involved.
During Fascism, when Starace was in power (president of PNF) he was so "respected" that people used to sing in a low voice:

"qui giace Starace,
vestito d'orbace
di nulla capace
requiescat in pace"

roughly translated:

here lies Starace
wearing a suit of badly wovel wool*
capable to do nothing
may he stay dead**

---------------------------------------------------------------------
* orbace is a kind of wool from sardinian sheeps which is very uncomfortable.
Starace tried to promote it on the basis that "autarchic is good"
everybody refused to wear it

**but since we are italians, and thus catholics, also may be translated as "may his soul rest in peace".
[Notice that Starace was alive and in charge at the time]
also, there is a deliberate mispell (it should be in pacem instead of in pace).
but since we are italians, we allowed to do it. :D

LOL, love it. :D

Need ATL to change the last verse to "senza permesso dal Farinacci" or something. ("Without permission from Farinacci"; excuse the Babelfish Blind Idiot Translation)

[cumbria]

As to implementing the Second Wave, while certain aspects make sense on paper that ignores a lot of the realities of Italian politics of the time. Balbo indeed wanted to revolutionize the military (OTL and ATL), but simply put he'd never get away with it. Fascism only "ruled" at the tacit permission of the army...the monarchist, traditionalist army. Try and push them too much farther than Mussolini did OTL and you risk losing that support and thereby losing your power. The MVSN would last about three days against the regular army if the king or the marshals lost faith in the administration. It also ignores the fact that Balbo and Farinacci are arch enemies. Politically it'd be like the Obama administration inviting the Tea Party to help them reform the Federal Government.

With the support of Farinacci and his supporters backing a Balbo led second wave the army and king would have to back down.
Any crushing of the Black Revolution could well lead to a Red one further down the line.

Similar issues with the armaments industry. ATL it's one of Balbo's power bases and doing that bites the hands that feed him. Also, given Fascism's OTL record on management I doubt they'd do any better and streamlining things. Despite all their propaganda about efficiency and streamlining and thinking as one, Fascism was a squabbling and inefficient bureaucratic labyrinth placed on top of an already labyrinthine Liberal bureaucracy.

The armaments industry could be bought at a high price to keep the owners happy has had been done with many other Italian companies.
United nationalised companies would then be able to concentrate on certain types of weapon instead of contracts handed out based on corruption for several types of the same weapon.

Attacks against France, even without Balkan distractions, will still be extremely difficult due to the same factors as OTL: horrible terrain, utter lack of readiness, lack of modern (or often any) equipment, and serious leadership issues. Balbo's setting things in motion to improve the situations there, but it's a long slow process that will take years, not months.

The attacks on France as in OTL would not be serious just faints in order to get a seat at the negotiating table.
But this time Balbo would not mess up the territory demands as Mussolini did.

[cumbria]

Attacking Malta and Egypt, while if done properly and in a timely manner could net much better results than OTL. Yet this still screws you in the long run since eventually the RN will dominate the Med by sheer size and ability and cut off any gains. Then they retake them at their leisure while you slowly starve awaiting invasion. At best this is a less humiliating loss.


The Royal Navy can only dominate the Mediterranean if it's ships can get into it.
If Italy takes Egypt that will mean the Suez Canal is closed to British shipping.
With Italian control of Tunisia and Malta no British ships will be passing from West to East (not that they would now have much reason to do so) which will leave Cyprus vulnerable to Italian assault.
Then another opportunity will present itself.
Franco in OTL wanted the Eastern end of the Mediterranean closed before he would enter the war and he met with Mussolini who told him he would get out of the war if he could.
These two things now change.
Balbo would be asking Franco to enter the war and the Eastern Mediterranean would now be closed.
So by early 1941 Franco may well be in the war too.

Great time line by the way.
Would be a shame now for the story, with all Balbo's reforms if Italy didnt enter the war.

[Geekhis Khan]

With the support of Farinacci and his supporters backing a Balbo led second wave the army and king would have to back down.
Any crushing of the Black Revolution could well lead to a Red one further down the line.

The king *might* back down as he did for Mussolini OTL, but still there's that "soft power" of the generals and it's a huge gamble to push things too far. Overcoming a century of Savioan "inertia" to change things will be very difficult, particularly given that your average soldier was more loyal to king than duce. And while exploiting fear of a "red" revolution is a possible bargaining chip for the Fascists, the "reds" are far to scattered and disorganized by this point to offer a real threat.

The armaments industry could be bought at a high price to keep the owners happy has had been done with many other Italian companies.
United nationalised companies would then be able to concentrate on certain types of weapon instead of contracts handed out based on corruption for several types of the same weapon.Assuming you can force the sale at gunpoint, still the problem remains that OTL Fascism was anything but organized, efficient, or non-corrupt. You just trade one corrupt, inept system for another. Many of the "diversity" in weapons was mandated by the government autarchic policy. And when your main generals are directly financially vested (e.g. Cavallero and FIAT-Ansaldo) that goes back to the problems of army support. Remember, this isn't Germany where Prussian Organization has been hammered home with the butt of a rifle, but parochial, familial Italy where corruption isn't just likely but expected.

These things CAN be overcome, but not by 1940.

The attacks on France as in OTL would not be serious just faints in order to get a seat at the negotiating table.
But this time Balbo would not mess up the territory demands as Mussolini did.Let's suppose the best Italo-French situation: an all-out push with all the army led by all the tanks...you still are forced to fight in either alpine passes or along the coast, areas that really favor the defensive. Those thin-skinned tanks vulnerable to light artillery make great road blocks once you punch a whole in them, further slowing any advances. Plus, unless I'd started these reforms ten years earlier you're still at the mercy of a poor organizational structure with few to no radios led by poor commanders chosen by seniority. Hardly the stuff of Blitzkrieg. It'd be like the Greek invasion but worse.

And as Hitler and Balbo are far from friends why would Adolph be any more generous to Balbo than he was to his "close friend" Mussolini? Hitler wants a passive France more than he needs to bribe Italy any further, so as OTL he gives Petain more than Balbo. At best you get Nice. Maybe Tunisia, but that's pushing it (see below). Corsica? Extremely unlikely without boots on the ground, which is unlikely without risking a naval battle with the unoccupied French Fleet Cavagnari would do his utmost to avoid. Any lost ships makes holding the central Med that much more difficult. Savoy? No freakin' way. IMO this is a lot of dead Italians for little gain.

The Royal Navy can only dominate the Mediterranean if it's ships can get into it.
If Italy takes Egypt that will mean the Suez Canal is closed to British shipping.
With Italian control of Tunisia and Malta no British ships will be passing from West to East (not that they would now have much reason to do so) which will leave Cyprus vulnerable to Italian assault.
Then another opportunity will present itself.
Franco in OTL wanted the Eastern end of the Mediterranean closed before he would enter the war and he met with Mussolini who told him he would get out of the war if he could.
These two things now change.
Balbo would be asking Franco to enter the war and the Eastern Mediterranean would now be closed.
So by early 1941 Franco may well be in the war too.

Franco didn't push into Gibraltar OTL, even with Hitlr and Mussolini doing a full-court diplomatic press, because his nation is still in ruins after one hell of a horrible civil war. No reason why he would act differently ATL.

Taking Malta early on is very possible. All of Egypt and the Suez...not so much. Even with the huge initial Italian numerical advantage you still have all those deficiencies in the army. You're talking long supply lines, hard logistics, difficult climate, and increased needs for the troops. All in an army seriously lacking trucks or fuel. Your best ports are far from the front and limited in capacity (one of the things that plagued even Rommel). I'd doubt you could take El Alamain before reinforcements from the Empire arrive.

Eventually British advantages mitigate the initial advances. Once serious Brit tanks are on hand the Italian thrust is blunted and collapses as OTL, only later and farther east. At best you delay the inevitable.

Taking Malta will mitigate the supply and naval problems, but not enough to make up for the lack of suitable ports. Taking Tunis will help there, but you need to divide your forces in Libya to take it, weakening the Egyptian front. Unless you seriously wank the Italian invasion of France I don't see *Vichy giving it away. Plus Tunis is a long-ass supply line to the front. You need trucks to get the troops and supplies there. Italian OTL plans were Tunisian defense, Egyptian offense, BTW. OTL they chose defense on both fronts.

In the end I just don't see taking Egypt without a much earlier POD and corresponding butterflies elsewhere.

Eventually RN and Imperial numbers and tech win out.

Assuming an earlier Condor Legion, which Italian pride will delay as long as possible, you might delay *Husky for a year. Long run is good for Stalin.

Great time line by the way.
Would be a shame now for the story, with all Balbo's reforms if Italy didnt enter the war.

Thanks! :) And don't think that Italy is just going to sit it all out. Hint: there are plenty of hints in the earlier entries.

[cumbria]

The king *might* back down as he did for Mussolini OTL, but still there's that "soft power" of the generals and it's a huge gamble to push things too far. Overcoming a century of Savioan "inertia" to change things will be very difficult, particularly given that your average soldier was more loyal to king than duce. And while exploiting fear of a "red" revolution is a possible bargaining chip for the Fascists, the "reds" are far to scattered and disorganized by this point to offer a real threat.

The Reds are only scattered because the Fascists scattered them.
Look how quickly Red power grew after 1943 and 1945.
The Italian elite will know it is better to have Radical Fascism than Red Socialism and that is the only real choice here.

Assuming you can force the sale at gunpoint, still the problem remains that OTL Fascism was anything but organized, efficient, or non-corrupt. You just trade one corrupt, inept system for another. Many of the "diversity" in weapons was mandated by the government autarchic policy. And when your main generals are directly financially vested (e.g. Cavallero and FIAT-Ansaldo) that goes back to the problems of army support. Remember, this isn't Germany where Prussian Organization has been hammered home with the butt of a rifle, but parochial, familial Italy where corruption isn't just likely but expected.

Sale dosnt have to be at gunpoint if the price is right.
This was done with many companies in Italy.
If arms companies are then merged bribes become pointless as the armed forces would only be buying off one company anyway and the profit would go to the state.



Let's suppose the best Italo-French situation: an all-out push with all the army led by all the tanks...you still are forced to fight in either alpine passes or along the coast, areas that really favor the defensive. Those thin-skinned tanks vulnerable to light artillery make great road blocks once you punch a whole in them, further slowing any advances. Plus, unless I'd started these reforms ten years earlier you're still at the mercy of a poor organizational structure with few to no radios led by poor commanders chosen by seniority. Hardly the stuff of Blitzkrieg. It'd be like the Greek invasion but worse.

As I said the attacks on France would be a feint just to get a seat at the negotiating table.
Few artillery exchanges and infantry skirmishes are all that is needed.
A few thousand dead as Mussolini said.


And as Hitler and Balbo are far from friends why would Adolph be any more generous to Balbo than he was to his "close friend" Mussolini? Hitler wants a passive France more than he needs to bribe Italy any further, so as OTL he gives Petain more than Balbo. At best you get Nice. Maybe Tunisia, but that's pushing it (see below). Corsica? Extremely unlikely without boots on the ground, which is unlikely without risking a naval battle with the unoccupied French Fleet Cavagnari would do his utmost to avoid. Any lost ships makes holding the central Med that much more difficult. Savoy? No freakin' way. IMO this is a lot of dead Italians for little gain.

Unlike OTL when Mussolini withdrew his territory request (he decided he didn’t want scraps from Hitler’s table) which Hitler was willing to honour, Balbo could maintain the demand.
If Hitler wants to keep Italy as an active military ally then he will give them the territory they require.
It will not jeopardise the creation and neutrality of Vichy as the French were expecting such loses anyway.
However Hitler could always compensate them with Waloonia, Belgium colonial holdings or even French Switzerland.

[cumbria]

Franco didn't push into Gibraltar OTL, even with Hitlr and Mussolini doing a full-court diplomatic press, because his nation is still in ruins after one hell of a horrible civil war. No reason why he would act differently ATL.

One of his demands for participation was the closure of the Eastern Mediterranean.
This is possible in this time line.
As for diplomacy I don’t think Mussolini saying to Franco "I would get out of this dammed war if I could" as being very good diplomacy.



Taking Malta early on is very possible. All of Egypt and the Suez...not so much. Even with the huge initial Italian numerical advantage you still have all those deficiencies in the army. You're talking long supply lines, hard logistics, difficult climate, and increased needs for the troops. All in an army seriously lacking trucks or fuel. Your best ports are far from the front and limited in capacity (one of the things that plagued even Rommel). I'd doubt you could take El Alamain before reinforcements from the Empire arrive.


Eventually British advantages mitigate the initial advances. Once serious Brit tanks are on hand the Italian thrust is blunted and collapses as OTL, only later and farther east. At best you delay the inevitable.

Taking Malta will mitigate the supply and naval problems, but not enough to make up for the lack of suitable ports.
Taking Tunis will help there, but you need to divide your forces in Libya to take it, weakening the Egyptian front. Unless you seriously wank the Italian invasion of France I don't see *Vichy giving it away. Plus Tunis is a long-ass supply line to the front. You need trucks to get the troops and supplies there. Italian OTL plans were Tunisian defense, Egyptian offense, BTW. OTL they chose defense on both fronts.



In this situation Malta should be the very first war aim of the Italian armed forces.
With Balbo in charge im sure we will have seen improvements to the Libyan ports and with Malta gone and Tunisia in Italian hands (after being given it in the peace settlement) the supply situation will be very much improved.
Add to that no planned invasion of Yugoslavia or Greece will mean more transport and armour available in Libya.
The bulk of the Italian airforce can be quickly sent there too.
To add to this Italy could request French trucks and armour to be sent to Libya as war booty.
The Italians when they see the failure of their armour will have to speed up production of the Semovente 75.




In the end I just don't see taking Egypt without a much earlier POD and corresponding butterflies elsewhere.

Eventually RN and Imperial numbers and tech win out.


If the Italian offensive is stopped then the Italians should atleast have enough anti-tank guns, mobile forces and airpower to hold the line just East of Tobruk.
Question then is will Balbo request German help?


Assuming an earlier Condor Legion, which Italian pride will delay as long as possible, you might delay *Husky for a year. Long run is good for Stalin.



As regards to the East the Germans will have 6 extra infantry divisions to deploy that are not used in the Balkans.
The Italians will have a massive 32 divisions the best of which or the best equipment of which can be sent to Libya the rest to Russia.
Not to mention the extra airpower.
Even more interesting is there will be an earlier start to Barbarossa.
If the Italians do manage to close the Eastern Mediterranean you might even see Greece and Yugoslavia send troops in the USSR on the Axis side.
If the Italians just fight a holding action in the Mediterranean that will free up 2 extra Panzer divisions for the invasion of the Soviet Union.

This may well be enough to secure Moscow by Winter.

[Geekhis Khan]

Okay, before this devolves into a multi-page back and forth I have to let you know that what you propose isn't happening ITTL for a variety of political reasons. Even assuming your ideas would go as you suggest (which I doubt) the fact is Balbo hates the Germans and (OTL and ATL) predicted disaster if Italy joined in with Hitler. He does not feel that Italy is ready for war (as OTL) and neither do his closest advisers (Badoglio, Cavallero, Cavagnari, Grandi, the king). Even Mussolini hesitated a long time before committing to joining the war, and he wanted to take on France and Britain badly. Balbo does not. At all.

Now, if Farinacci were to take over, your ideas could see implementation (if not automatically success) as he's a Germanophile.

But with Balbo at the helm there's little chance of Italy getting involved in the Battle of France.


But to address your comments since you kindly took the time to add them:

The Reds are only scattered because the Fascists scattered them.
Look how quickly Red power grew after 1943 and 1945.
The Italian elite will know it is better to have Radical Fascism than Red Socialism and that is the only real choice here.

Patently disagree here. The Reds grew in power after 1943 only following a complete collapse of Italian army, government, and fascist party. Here all are intact but the last. Reds are at best scattered cells far less of a threat than rogue squadrists. If the king and marshals call no confidence in the regime, it's toast. Finito.

Sale dosnt have to be at gunpoint if the price is right.
This was done with many companies in Italy.
If arms companies are then merged bribes become pointless as the armed forces would only be buying off one company anyway and the profit would go to the state. Assuming you're willing to spend the gold Italy doesn't have at this point thanks to poor budgetary practices under Mussie, again you're just swapping one corrupt, inept leadership for another. A fat-assed government bureaucrat chosen for loyalty to Mussie rather than a fat-assed CEO. The manner of sale does little to change this. Merging companies also means redundancy and having to deal with redundancy and having to deal with out of work middle managers.

A better plan all around is to force the sale licenses between corporations such that many produce a single model (as was done in the US and UK) rather than try to absorb their day to day operations. Now you have, say, Fiat, Macchi, and Reggianne all license-producing one model of fighter instead of three. Much better for logistics, cost, and training.

As I said the attacks on France would be a feint just to get a seat at the negotiating table.
Few artillery exchanges and infantry skirmishes are all that is needed.
A few thousand dead as Mussolini said.And so no boots on French ground and so no real claim to conquest. Just like OTL. Hitler won't buy this ATL any more than OTL. Petain won't go for it as he has legitimacy issues enough without giving away French turf to a nation that hardly set foot in the country.


Unlike OTL when Mussolini withdrew his territory request (he decided he didn’t want scraps from Hitler’s table) which Hitler was willing to honour, Balbo could maintain the demand. If Hitler wants to keep Italy as an active military ally then he will give them the territory they require.
It will not jeopardise the creation and neutrality of Vichy as the French were expecting such loses anyway.
However Hitler could always compensate them with Waloonia, Belgium colonial holdings or even French Switzerland.Mussie didn't just chuck away French gains out of ego. He gave up claims because the army didn't show well enough to do so. Even an egoist like Mussie wouldn't have passed up free Irredentist gains or he'd lose the respect of his base. If they'd actually been offered (which I haven't ever read) he would have taken them.

To quote wiki (yea, I know. It's easier than typing paragraphs out of Knox):On 25 June, France and Italy signed an armistice.[17] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#cite_note-16) Ciano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galeazzo_Ciano), who led the armistice delegation as Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Minister_of_Foreign_Affairs), reflected: "Mussolini is quite humiliated because our troops have not made a step forward."[18] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#cite_note-Shirer899-17) The debacle forced Mussolini to abandon his pretensions of reconstituting an Empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Colonial_Empire) at French expense, and Italy dropped its claims to the Rhône Valley (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhone), Corsica (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsica), Tunisia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisia), and Djibouti (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Djibouti), settling for a modest 50 km demilitarized zone (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demilitarized_zone).[18] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#cite_note-Shirer899-17) In the event, with Germany's blessing, Italy occupied Corsica (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsica) and the Alpes-Maritimes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpes-Maritimes), plus some areas of French territory along the Franco-Italian border further north.[19] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#cite_note-18) Nevertheless, The strutting Italian dictator had been quickly deflated—all the more so because of the miserable showing of the Italian army against a handful of French troops.[18] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_invasion_of_France#cite_note-Shirer899-17)
Here is the exact same situation. No real claim because no real gains. Why on earth would ATL be any different?



One of his demands for participation was the closure of the Eastern Mediterranean.
This is possible in this time line.
As for diplomacy I don’t think Mussolini saying to Franco "I would get out of this dammed war if I could" as being very good diplomacy.

That requires actually closing the eastern Med, which I don't see happening. The Italian Army just isn't fit yet.

Maybe in an ATL where Balbo becomes the Capo Stato di Maggiore Generale in 1933 like he requested (near ASB given Mussie's fear of Balbo's popularity and power already) and is given free reign to reform the Italian military (which runs into the same problems I mention earlier) you have an Italy capable of taking Suez, but ITTL it's too early in the reforms. Balbo's only had a couple years and while a great organizer he's not God and can't change things overnight.

Rather than type several pages on why the army isn't fit I recommend you read MacGregor Knox's Hitler's Italian Allies. At ~200 pages it's a quick read and points out very clearly all the many problems with the Italian military in WW2.


In this situation Malta should be the very first war aim of the Italian armed forces.
With Balbo in charge im sure we will have seen improvements to the Libyan ports and with Malta gone and Tunisia in Italian hands (after being given it in the peace settlement) the supply situation will be very much improved.
Add to that no planned invasion of Yugoslavia or Greece will mean more transport and armour available in Libya.
The bulk of the Italian airforce can be quickly sent there too.
To add to this Italy could request French trucks and armour to be sent to Libya as war booty.
The Italians when they see the failure of their armour will have to speed up production of the Semovente 75.
Yes, more transport and air power and armor can be added. Enough? No. And still poorly coordinated at this point. Italian mechanized warfare got better by 42, but in 40 even with two years of Balbian reforms it's a long way from ready. Plus adding more troops and vehicles means more logistics and fuel, more port jams and delays, and strains the already overloaded Italian command & control network, if you could call it that. They're already overburdened with too many troops they can't support. Better armor is a blessing, but even in the near-ASB hypothetical efficient nationalization it's years away.

The ports have improved some (and will improve more in coming years; more on that in a future post) but that's not something you can do overnight. That's a program that needed to be initiated a decade ago.

If the Italian offensive is stopped then the Italians should atleast have enough anti-tank guns, mobile forces and airpower to hold the line just East of Tobruk.
Question then is will Balbo request German help?

As regards to the East the Germans will have 6 extra infantry divisions to deploy that are not used in the Balkans.
The Italians will have a massive 32 divisions the best of which or the best equipment of which can be sent to Libya the rest to Russia.
Not to mention the extra airpower.
Even more interesting is there will be an earlier start to Barbarossa.
If the Italians do manage to close the Eastern Mediterranean you might even see Greece and Yugoslavia send troops in the USSR on the Axis side.
If the Italians just fight a holding action in the Mediterranean that will free up 2 extra Panzer divisions for the invasion of the Soviet Union.

This may well be enough to secure Moscow by Winter.The German involvement is the big question here, and assuming Italy holds to Tobruk (possible ITTL) and Balbo immediately asks for help (doubtful...ego issues and national prestige on the line without OTL's humiliating collapse to put egos in check) it's a race between the Germans and the British to see who gets more boots and tanks in the quickest. With supplies and troops pouring in from India and Australia and Germany as limited by Italian logistics as Italy my money's on the Brits in the long run. Plus while no Balkan war means more Axis troops available, it also means more Brits not involved in stupid Greek ventures and available for Egypt.

My gut feeling is a back-and-forth offensive-counteroffensive along the Egyptian-Libyan coast (Axis never reaches Alexandria, Allies never reach Tripoli) until *Torch opens that second front and the naval war turns slowly in Allied favor.

[cumbria]

Best not bore everyone with a reply to every post.
But just one point.
Mussolini did make claims for French territory but withdrew them not because of the poor Italian performance (he expected this as he only made attacks against defensive positions to get on the negotiation table) but because for the reasons I gave about his ego.
He did then again think of re-asking for these territories but felt if he changed his mind again he would look like a fool.

[lounge60]

was that a pun, or play on word? :p
The main topic was defending the "italian race" (whatever the heck it is) from "punic" (a.k.a. "semitic", but a flavour of "Carthage", too) and "african" influences

Is very comic..:D
According to a recent genetic map of Italians,we have three main groups:

South Italians (the old two sicily kingdom) have a genetic Greek predominance.

Center Italy people (tuscan and Lazio) have an genetic Etruscan predominance.

North Italy have a celtic genetic predominance.

Invaders left very few tracks,
and :D :D we have very,very,very few tracks of...Roman genetic heritage (spread in whole Italy,more to center).

[Jimbrock]

*peeks into giant pulti-post debates*

These internal uphevals are interesting, but how is the war and Sitzkrieg going? Pretty much OTL?

[Geekhis Khan]

*peeks into giant pulti-post debates*

These internal uphevals are interesting, but how is the war and Sitzkrieg going? Pretty much OTL?

So far we're pretty much paralleling OTL. Norway has been invaded and after careful research it's looking OTL. Sitzkrieg rages. Finland is struggling. Italy and Britain want to help it but getting there is difficult.

[B_Munro]

Is very comic..:D
According to a recent genetic map of Italians,we have three main groups:

South Italians (the old two sicily kingdom) have a genetic Greek predominance.

Center Italy people (tuscan and Lazio) have an genetic Etruscan predominance.

North Italy have a celtic genetic predominance.

Invaders left very few tracks,
and :D :D we have very,very,very few tracks of...Roman genetic heritage (spread in whole Italy,more to center).

Due to the lack of clear modern-day descendants of the Etruscans to take genetic samples from, how do we distinguish Latin from Etruscan genes?

Bruce,
curious

[lounge60]

Due to the lack of clear modern-day descendants of the Etruscans to take genetic samples from, how do we distinguish Latin from Etruscan genes?

Bruce,
curious

I have read, from the bones,in many cases well preserved.

[Herr Frage]

Yeah, I really don't much care about this genetic stuff.

As for the Reds, I agree with GK. They only came into power after the epic failures of the war decimated the regimes ability to exert power and lost so much credibility with the masses. Though remember even with that the vote on keeping the monarchy was very close(lost due to Yankee republicanism tweaking ***** *****!).

So keeping the King onside is vital if Balbo wants to effectively rule or rule at all.

Though by that same logic I don't see Farinacci as a threat power unless he gets German intervention. The Savoians(royaty, army, and nobility) will not support him. The most Fascist branch of the military is more likely to support Balbo than him. Industry and moderates will also back Balbo. Farinacci may be able to start a civil war, but he woud not win.

Granted even a brief civil war would be more than Italy can afford. With any luck he has epic failure with the Second Wave crushed by Balbo. A victory that lets Balbo clean some house and lends him more credibility and influence as Capo. Maybe even enough to make his rule official?

[UnionPresident]

Just wanted to say that this TL is great. I had always been happy to just read but Viva Balbo made me join the site. Keep up the very good work!

[Germaniac]

Just wondering if the TL will be updated soon. It's my favorite timeline and I don't want to see it die

[Mr.Robert]

Just wondering if the TL will be updated soon. It's my favorite timeline and I don't want to see it die

I think it's pretty much dead since Geekhis Khan edited out the date he last updated the timeline in his signature. It is probably my Favorite TL since I discovered AH several months back.

[tjvuse]

I think it's pretty much dead since Geekhis Khan edited out the date he last updated the timeline in his signature. It is probably my Favorite TL since I discovered AH several months back.

NOOOOOOOOOOO
This time line is one of my favs as well please dont let it end to soon Italy has not even finished the 2WW yet.

[Germaniac]

I've been following this since the first thread... ugh It would be terrible to lose this.

[ferrosol]

Yeah this is one of my Favourite TLs It would be a shame to see it abandoned.

[Geekhis Khan]

Not Dead yet, folks...just on a temporary hiatus as I settle in to my new and much busier job. Sorry for the inconvinience and lack of notice. :)

Thanks for the good word and I'll endevor to update as time allows...

[Dr. Strangelove]

All hail Geekhis!

[Jimbrock]

I would like to support this TL too, just to keep the morale up at writers quarters. Come on, we still need to see an Italy stretching from Lyon to Skopje! :D

[tjvuse]

Not Dead yet, folks...just on a temporary hiatus as I settle in to my new and much busier job. Sorry for the inconvinience and lack of notice. :)

Thanks for the good word and I'll endevor to update as time allows...

Its alive Yay..:D

[Herr Frage]

You can't rush quality after all. I patiently await the continuation.

[Greenlanterncorps]

Not Dead yet, folks...just on a temporary hiatus as I settle in to my new and much busier job. Sorry for the inconvinience and lack of notice. :)

Thanks for the good word and I'll endevor to update as time allows...

Damn that pesky real life! Doesn't your employer know you have an important thread to update on the internet?

They need to rethink their priorities...;).

[wolf_brother]

I have to say that this is the best piece I've ever read written on fascism and this time period in Europe outside of academia; and for the simple reason that you actually show the cracks, discontent and factionalism present with the fascist 'movement' - especially in Italy. Bravo. I hope you can get back to working on this TL asap :D

[Geekhis Khan]

Thank you, wolf brother, I'm humbled.

I really do intend to get back to this TL. My new job, however, expects me to work for a living. Oh well...

I'll get back as soon as I can, I promise...

[Whanztastic]

Thank you, wolf brother, I'm humbled.

I really do intend to get back to this TL. My new job, however, expects me to work for a living. Oh well...

I'll get back as soon as I can, I promise...

I hate how work expects us to work! Ugh. It killed my TL while it was still a lowercase 'tl'.

[Geekhis Khan]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AZySJdar_ew/TI_UE2eCjoI/AAAAAAAABoE/_0b7lIG7bZA/s320/20090828-good-news-everyone.jpg

Good News, Everyone!

This timeline's not dead yet! Another update is in the queue and I hope to get it to you in the next couple of weeks, time permitting.

In the mean time please enjoy BLACKSHIRTS.......IN......SPACE!!!!! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjVa5xsi2Uw&feature=player_embedded) (well, on Mars, specifically)

[Greenlanterncorps]

Maybe it's because I don't speak Italian, but that is the strangest thing I have seen this year.

[Whanztastic]

Huzah!

http://blogs.eveningsun.com/troublebrewing/bender.jpg

[Archangel]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AZySJdar_ew/TI_UE2eCjoI/AAAAAAAABoE/_0b7lIG7bZA/s320/20090828-good-news-everyone.jpg

Good News, Everyone!

This timeline's not dead yet! Another update is in the queue and I hope to get it to you in the next couple of weeks, time permitting.

In the mean time please enjoy BLACKSHIRTS.......IN......SPACE!!!!! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjVa5xsi2Uw&feature=player_embedded) (well, on Mars, specifically)
Excellent!:)

[Herr Frage]

"885! For each post that refuses to let this TL crawl under the porch and die!" -Paraphrasing General Treister "Venture Bros."

Keep up the squat thrusts and and I look forward to being stunned by your triumphant return.

[Geekhis Khan]

Chapter 10: The Fires of War

http://www.corbisimages.com/images/67/2CA8D92B-67B0-4F70-B5FB-8C7CCE4DC506/U230530ACME.jpg
Balbo looking out over the Alpine Frontier
Paris falls to the Germans

New threat on the Marne | Attack on Maginot line fails [1]

Guardian, Tuesday 18 June 1940: Paris fell to the Germans yesterday. The French, having decided not to fight in the capital itself, have withdrawn south of the city.


In deciding not to defence Paris the French Command "aimed at sparing it the devastation which defence would have involved. The command considered that no valuable strategic result justified the sacrifice of Paris."
From the sea to the Maginot Line the Allies are resisting strongly on a new line behind Paris. There was no pause in the German attacks yesterday, but at some points of the front they were less violent.

East of Paris the German thrust beyond the Seine and the Marne, threatening to turn the Maginot line, appears to have made little progress. A direct attack on the Maginot Line in the Saar region has been repulsed with heavy German losses.


The Scene in Paris

It was a strangely empty Paris that awaited the arrival of the Germans. The scene is described by a Press Association correspondent who left the city late on Thursday. Only a few police were to be seen in the streets. A handful of soldiers and some civilians wandered about aimlessly. Some housewives were doing their shopping at the only baker's shop still open in the West End. A mobile guard was posted at the door of the shop, a gun slung over his shoulder. There was no sound of gunfire or of exploding bombs.

The only authorities left in the capital were Cardinal Suhad, the Archbishop, officials of the essential services, and the Prefecture, Mobile Guards, and firemen. All bridges had been left intact, but the French are reported to have blown up the big armaments factories in the suburbs.
The main German forces entered the city at noon yesterday. They came from the north-west and by the Aubervilliers Gate from the north-east. From the north-western suburbs they marched through the west end down the Champs Elysées - tanks, armoured reconnaissance cars, anti-tank units, and motorised infantry. Machine-gun posts were set up at important points, and the wireless stations were seized.

The people left in Paris watched the entry in silence, reports the Associated Press correspondents. Small groups of people still sat along the terraces and boulevards and in the cafés. Shops were boarded up. In the Place de l'Opéra stood a solitary motor-car with a big "for sale" sign. The Paris police still patrolled the streets. Occasionally could be heard the drone of an unmolested 'plane.


German rejoicing

Mr. Bullitt, the American Ambassador in Paris, had stayed in the capital to help in the orderly transfer of the government of the city, and early yesterday morning he telephoned to Tours to say: "The Germany Army is inside the gates of Paris. The city is quiet."

Mr. Anthony Biddle, the former United States Ambassador to Poland, who is in Tours, sent on the message to the United States State Department in Washington. It was the first official news of the fall of Paris.
Several hours later the Germans began their rejoicing. From the Fuhrer's headquarters came a special announcement announcing the "complete collapse" of the allied line from the sea to the Maginot Line and the German entry into Paris. From the Fuhrer's headquarters also came an order that flags should be flown throughout Germany for the next three days, and that yesterday church bells should ring for 15 minutes. This order was read over the German wireless. Three minutes'; silence followed, and then came the playing of "The March Into Paris," "specially composed for this occasion." [2]


The early summer of 1940 saw a distinct change in the Italian political atmosphere. German tanks had just swept across the Ardennes, catching the Entente forces in a massive envelopment and shocking the world with the lightning collapse of mighty France. The French collapse sent shockwaves through the halls of power in Rome and the buzz was enough to rouse Ciano from his scattered mental state. His journal entries become much more lucid and focused during this period, focusing on the political and strategic environment within the capital and reflecting the rumors and fears of an administration suddenly dealt a major blow to its foreign policy choices.
May 16th, 1940: The halls rattle with the whispers of the damned. They speak of the Nazi sucesses in France and lament the conquests we never made on Hitler's heels. The same voices yelled loud but days before of Hitler's sure downfall at French hands and backed that democratic whore Balbo in his Spendid Isolation.

The Last Laugh is soon. Farinacci is said to amass an army at the gates of Rome to seize the Throne of Sainted Benito, and only this fear keeps His Royal Majesty backing the bearded fools [Balbo and De Bono?]. Balbo retreats into Benito's old halls with that shifty Bocchini to formulate the means to keep a grip on power. What Balbo is too much the fool to know, but I do, is that his guardian is a true Praetorian and will as surely stab his own master for what he sees as the good of the Empire. Viva Romanum!

Ciano's later entries offer some interesting insights into the mind of Duce [SIC] Balbo.
May 24th, 1940: He [Balbo] says to me, "Galeazzo, what should we do? Shall we invade France? Can we?" He worries about mobilization and the readiness he fears our armies lack. It is a reflection of his own incompetance and that the army does not trust in him as it would trust in Benito's guidance.


June 5th, 1940: Balbo asks me again of what Benito would do. The answer? He would have already taken Nice and Corsica, but the fool doesn't want to hear that. I placate him with simple diplomatics [SIC], congratulate Hitler, send his regards to Churchill, or something. It hardly matters.


June 18th, 1940: Paris fell. I was as surprised as any at Hitler's sucesses. I'd counciled Benito against getting to close too that Austrian Corporal, but as always, Benito knew. Damn that cursed traitor [Camilo Berneri, Mussolini's assassin]! He killed not just the Duce and my beloved [Edda], but he killed Italy and left it in the hands of a Ferrarese clown. It matters not. I see the look in Italo's eyes: he fears the inevitable. I hear his voice when he talks on the phone to the King. He drinks and screws too much, he and that old letch Bocchini. The path of Nero...or perhaps Caligula. Perhaps Farinacci can be our Claudius? Doubtful.
These reflections, though biased and perhaps unreliable given Ciano's continuing health problems, are some of the few semi-candid views into the mind of Balbo during that critical period of 1940

From the The Annotated Ciano Diaries, edited by Giovanni Florentino, Università Littoria, Rome, and translated by Stephen Lambert, University of New York, Ithica.


************************************************

Note a piè di pagina:

1 – The Battle of France has gone roughly OTL. I spent a good deal of time trying to determine what butterflies, if any, would alter things. Italian involvement was inconsequential OTL, so its absence changes nothing. The best I could do was a random butterfly saving the Me-108 with the Fall Gelb plans, but it appears that the plan was evolving towards a more Manstein-like envelopment even before, and considering Hitler's desire for such a bold plan it seems likely such a plan will arise ITTL as IOTL. I made it Manstein as OTL for simplicity. Call it a couple more days of Entente holdout due to the Entente lacking the overconfidence in their plans after the Me-108 and less need to plan for Italian intervention.

2 - Actual Guardian headline on the fall of paris...slightly edited to reflect ATL events.

[maverick]

Yay, It's back!

And with more plotting than ever! :D

I wonder if we'll see Farinacci make his move soon.

[Whanztastic]

Huzzah! Viva Italia!

[BlairWitch749]

GK,

Brilliant work as usual. Again I'd like to suggest that Balbo can silence his critics by moving on Yugoslavia. Italy had well stated ambitions in the area, and attacking them by themselves is within Italy's military capacity. Hitler would be stuck with a fait complit, and with a good 4 months left in the 1940 campaigning season, Italy would have a fair chance of achieving most of their primary objectives before the year is out

The only thing Balbo would have to do in terms of placating Hitler is promise him in blood that he has no interest in Romania... some kind of restatement of his stance against communism would also sooth Hitler's feathers

[mrmandias]

Bravissimo!

[area11]

Hurray it has returned! This is one of the best timelines on this site and I cannot wait for more.

[Urban fox]

GK,

Brilliant work as usual. Again I'd like to suggest that Balbo can silence his critics by moving on Yugoslavia. Italy had well stated ambitions in the area, and attacking them by themselves is within Italy's military capacity. Hitler would be stuck with a fait complit, and with a good 4 months left in the 1940 campaigning season, Italy would have a fair chance of achieving most of their primary objectives before the year is out

The only thing Balbo would have to do in terms of placating Hitler is promise him in blood that he has no interest in Romania... some kind of restatement of his stance against communism would also sooth Hitler's feathers

That'll end badly ''Yugoslavia's'' Army was really ''Serbia's Army'' and the Serbs are good fighters. Particularly when compared to Italy's wretchedly led army.

Honestly the incompetence and corruption of the officer corps under fascist rule is a problem Balbo has only just begin to fix. Wasting Italy small number of good divisions against Yugoslavia is folly when the German threat looms, indeed an alliance with Belgrade makes much more sense than an invasion...

[BlairWitch749]

That'll end badly ''Yugoslavia's'' Army was really ''Serbia's Army'' and the Serbs are good fighters. Particularly when compared to Italy's wretchedly led army.

Honestly the incompetence and corruption of the officer corps under fascist rule is a problem Balbo has only just begin to fix. Wasting Italy small number of good divisions against Yugoslavia is folly when the German threat looms, indeed an alliance with Belgrade makes much more sense than an invasion...

I can't recall which book it was, but I seem to remember something like only 60 percent of Yugoslavia's army was ethnically Serbian (the rest being Croats, and other associated minority groups)

If Italy is fighting a one front war, they could brigade all of their mobile divisions for a drive through the Lubijana gap (which isn't god awful tank country) and let their Alpini and Bersegliare forces handle the rough terrain. They would have total air superiority, and other major powers are busy killing each other... it would be a shadowed war of nastiness (getting less press than say Finland, since there are other larger conflicts going on)

Plus Balbo isn't going to be able to weed out dead wood without combat to absolutely prove the failure of the highly segmented officer-enlisted relationships

[Jimbrock]

Yes! Its back! And what a return it is. I wonder when, and how (if?) Italy will join WWII. And on whose side.

[Geekhis Khan]

Thanks, all, and glad to be "back". Time's been so limited as of late. I'll endevor not to delay so long any more.


On Yugoslavia, that's exactly the type of bold gamble Balbo'd love...the question, though, is will he get the chance? :cool:

[mailinutile2]

Maybe a larger version of the Bakar mockery of 1917 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakar_mockery).
Or even ... ... ... paracadutisti?

P.S.: welcome back. we all missed you

[Urban fox]

I can't recall which book it was, but I seem to remember something like only 60 percent of Yugoslavia's army was ethnically Serbian (the rest being Croats, and other associated minority groups)

If Italy is fighting a one front war, they could brigade all of their mobile divisions for a drive through the Lubijana gap (which isn't god awful tank country) and let their Alpini and Bersegliare forces handle the rough terrain. They would have total air superiority, and other major powers are busy killing each other... it would be a shadowed war of nastiness (getting less press than say Finland, since there are other larger conflicts going on)

Plus Balbo isn't going to be able to weed out dead wood without combat to absolutely prove the failure of the highly segmented officer-enlisted relationships

Eh, about 80% or more of the officers were Serbian. The second largest ethnic group the Croats weren’t trusted much by the government and measures against them would be in place, although chancres the Croats wont like the idea of Italian troops on their soil either…

Italy wont have uncontested control of the skies, their ‘’tanks’’ are poor their Infantry aside from elite units badly led, trained, equipped and not even slightly enthusiastic about dying in the fascist regime’s random wars of aggression course if fighting a defensive war against Germany they would be in much more of a fighting mood)

Honestly the Italian OTL was piss-poor on the offensive even against Albania, never mind Greece or the Yugoslavs, the Serbians fight like demons. Their quick loss to Germany was due to a combination of bad luck, (and sheer German skill & firepower). Italy on the other hand would end up in an embarrassing meat-grinder campaign just like Austria-Hungary did, unless their objectives are limited any they don’t try to invade Serbia proper.

A bold series of diplomatic moves could yield Balbo more prestige than uselessly pissing-awy Italian military power against potential allies & valuable trading partners.

As for the dead-wood. Well, Italy’s officer corps had WW2 deep systemic problems that a short campaign wont fix, the majority of the officers were ‘’dead-wood’’ as the whole mentally, culture and command style of the Italian offer corps was abysmal. Anyway a Yugoslav war would show up problems that Balbo at this stage has detailed knowledge of...

[BlairWitch749]

Eh, about 80% or more of the officers were Serbian. The second largest ethnic group the Croats weren’t trusted much by the government and measures against them would be in place, although chancres the Croats wont like the idea of Italian troops on their soil either…

Italy wont have uncontested control of the skies, their ‘’tanks’’ are poor their Infantry aside from elite units badly led, trained, equipped and not even slightly enthusiastic about dying in the fascist regime’s random wars of aggression course if fighting a defensive war against Germany they would be in much more of a fighting mood)

Honestly the Italian OTL was piss-poor on the offensive even against Albania, never mind Greece or the Yugoslavs, the Serbians fight like demons. Their quick loss to Germany was due to a combination of bad luck, (and sheer German skill & firepower). Italy on the other hand would end up in an embarrassing meat-grinder campaign just like Austria-Hungary did, unless their objectives are limited any they don’t try to invade Serbia proper.

A bold series of diplomatic moves could yield Balbo more prestige than uselessly pissing-awy Italian military power against potential allies & valuable trading partners.

As for the dead-wood. Well, Italy’s officer corps had WW2 deep systemic problems that a short campaign wont fix, the majority of the officers were ‘’dead-wood’’ as the whole mentally, culture and command style of the Italian offer corps was abysmal. Anyway a Yugoslav war would show up problems that Balbo at this stage has detailed knowledge of...


I don't disagree that whenever they make their combat debut, that all of the otl shortcomings will be revealed... how could Italy not have air superiority, they have thousands of aircraft, and hundreds of pilots who flew in spain who would at least be competitive... what was the size composition and skill level of the royal yugoslav airforce?

I agree a short (like couple months) can't fix all of their problems, but it can at least make them aware of their existance. After compass in OTL (admittedly one of the worst drubbings in modern warfare) the Italians swallowed a ton of freaking pride and went hat in hand to the Germans (including asking for licenses to build German weapons in Italian factories)

In terms of divisions getting better its certainly a drawn out process... The Ariette and Trieste divisions after 2 years of serving side by side and holding hands with the Africa Korps became 1st class divisions of the highest order, both in Rommel's estimation and the British

the question would be what kind of motivation can Balbo get in front of at least a segment of his army to train them up to that level

[The Sandman]

Why not just squeeze the Yugoslavs for the Dalmatian coastline? IIRC, that's the bit that Italy actually wanted, and they might be able to get the Serbs to grudgingly swallow their pride by privately mentioning how it would weaken the relative strength of the Croats in Yugoslavia.

[maverick]

Wouldn't have Hitler tried to make a pact with Yugoslavia to counter Italy? Of course, He could still sell them out in exchange of Italian neutrality, although admittedly I don't remember much about the Balkans since the near-Balkan war of 1939.

[DuQuense]

?Didn't whe just have a lot of Butterflies in the Balkans- pre war? This is not OTL's Balkans.

[CCA]

I love the metaphors to the Roman Empire...

Viva Ciano!

[Geekhis Khan]

The Italian military had long been drafting plans for an invasion of Yugoslavia, even before Mussolini's rise to power. The latter's ascention added political motivation to the plan with various scenarios for the seizure of the Yugoslav state debated over the course of Mussolini's reign. The main sticking point continued to be French guarantees on Yugoslavian sovereignty.

With Mussolini's assassination, Balbo inherited a mixed bag of invasion plans and optimistic schedules coupled with continued clandestine actions by SIM to aid and abet Croat seperatists and fan the flames of ethnic strife, hoping to send the nation into civil war and allow for easy Italian conquest. Balbo, influenced no doubt by familial interests (his wife's family held a hereditary title to a Dalmatian port), continued to invest time and intelligence into the Yugoslav plans, integrating them into an overall plan for bringing the whole of the Balkans into the Italian sphere. The Balkan Crisis put these plans on temporary hiatus.

It was in early 1940, at the height of the Sitzkrieg, that the Yugoslav plans were dusted off and adressed anew. Two factors motivated this renewal of interest, the first being the imminent war between Germany and the Entente, the second being Balbo's continued domestic turmoil. The former situation offered a near-ideal strategic circumstance with the two most likely allies of the Yugoslavs soon to become embroiled in major conflict, a conflict most Italian generals were certain would become a long and bloody slog. The latter situation was less clear: on one hand a victorious war could help cement public opinion in Balbo's favor and deflect the negative perceptions many held for Balbian Neutralist policy, on the other hand absorbing the bulk of the army in the east could prove an open invite to insurection by the growing Farinaccian Second Wave.

The marshals and generals of the newly-formed Commando Supremo debated the merits of a Yugoslav venture. In Italian favor were numbers, equipment, aid from ethnic groups hostile to the Serbian-dominated government, and potential Hungarian, Albanian, Bulgarian, or even Greek assistance. In Yugoslav favor were terrain and the uncertain diplomatic situation seen in the Balkan Crisis. Not all of Germany's divisions were tied up in Sitzkreig, offering hope for German intervention, and continuing emnity between its neighbords could possibly be exploited to break up any alliance.

A long war or occupation could be disasterous for Italy, even if tactically victorious. Any perceived military failure would bolster Second Wave accusations as much as any victory would bolster Balbo. The Aeronatica, recently given by Balbo to his old friend Amedeo, Duke of Aosta [1], assured Balbo that air superiority could be quickly achieved, air supremacy and dominance soon to follow. The Marina under Cavagnari was quick to promise naval victory, though warned of the dangers of Yugoslav MAS boats in the crowded Adriatic littoral. General Baistroicchi, citing the German Blitzkrieg in Poland, assured a swift and overwhelming victory spearheaded by his armored corps. Badoglio was far less optimistic and urged caution. Balbo, remembering the earlier problems with mobilization (problems not fully resolved to his satisfaction), but duely impressed with the morale of the young tank corps, was divided.

All of these strategic assumptions evaporated in the spring of 1940 when the Sitzkrieg broke, along with the Entente lines in the surprising Ardennes Blitzkrieg and subsequent French collapse. This simultaneously dashed any notions that Germany would be tied up for a long time to come and bolstered Baistroicchi's claims for a quick war. SIM agents cited great leaps in their efforts to build up Croat nationalists, but warned against mistaking Croat disdain for the Serbs for appreciation for the Italians, Istria and Fiume remaining sore points in Croat-Italian relations.

In the end Balbo decided that if a quick, limited-objective war could be initiated and rapidly won, that the domestic risk was worth the rewards. He dictated a "guerra folgorante" with the end objectives of breaking up Yugoslavia and claiming as much of the Dalmatian coast and islands as militarily feasible, possibly claiming sections of Kosovo for their Albanian puppets as well. it was hoped that the continued German pacification and occupation of France would give the strategic window necessary to accomplish these limited objectives, but the action remained a gamble.

On July 5th, 1940, Balbo signed an executive order authorizing war with the Yugoslavs. However, this order did not remain as secret as hoped. It is beleived, but has never been satisfactorially verified, that an officer disgruntled with the Balbian regime and/or sympathetic to the Second Wave may have leaked the document. Some have even claimed the leak to be Marshal Graziani himself, recently returned from Ethiopia, though hindsight perceptions probably have more to do with this belief than real evidence.

What is known is that Farinacci and Hitler both soon had word of Balbian plans for Yugoslavia. [...]

As the Italian army and air force mobilized for war in the east Farinacci initiated plans in the northeast. Meanwhile, Himmler took action of his own to stem the Italian action. [...] Soon, German trains were rolling southward out of Poland, packed to capacity.

From Roman Eagle, the Biography of Italo Balbo by Giuseppe Bosco, PhD., Professor of History at the University of Illinois, Chicago.


************************************************

Note a piè di pagina:

1 – OTL Amedeo joined the RA in the 30s. Mussolini later made him Viceroy of Ethiopia, replacing Graziani. ATL Balbo (an OTL friend of Amedeo) has given him the RA. More on this in a later post.

[joea64]

SO glad to see this getting going again! It looks like this is where Italy gets sucked, willy-nilly, into the Allied coalition. I'm certain Balbo didn't intend it that way, but once the Panzer formations show up and start tearing into the flanks of Italian units as they move into Croatia, the Marshal won't have much option but to seek help from Churchill. The question is, will Churchill be willing to help? I know you've got some curveballs to throw, but I can see the broad outlines of the early campaign forming...Italian incursions into Slovenia and Croatia, followed by a German counterstroke that knocks the Italians right back out again, followed up in turn by a blitzkrieg into the northeastern plains of Italy, to be followed up (at least in Hitler's plans) by a march all the way to Rome...

And I see Farinacci is about to make his move. From previous foreshadowing, it's plain he won't succeed in the long run, but in the short run...I daresay there are going to be some exciting times on the streets of Rome. ("Exciting" as in, for instance, pitched battles between "Second Wave" blackshirts and pro-Farinacci army units, on the one hand, and loyalist blackshirts and troops, on the other hand, as they fight over government ministries. Maybe an assassination attempt on Balbo, perhaps put in train by the SD?)

[BlairWitch749]

Good that Balbo has this option on the table... the pickings are ripe

I can't speak to his domestic unrest problems (although I would think the plotters would hold themselves until after the military situation had taken shape)

But for the Germans sending their troops south... I hope your sending them into Romania for defensive purposes (as was done in otl after the Russians took Moldavia)

The Germans have no reason to backstop Yugoslavia, and have enough things to do on their plate. If this pissed Hitler off (which I'm a bit dubious of) he would pre-emptively send Goering (who was on good terms with a lot of the Italian political establishment) and the prince of Hesse to try to negotiate with Balbo. Their first request would be for him to cancel the idea (and they would offer some concession or more generous trade terms for German coal in order to get it) or depending on Hitler's mood at the time, and Balbo's willingness to renounce any intention of EVER having anything to do with Romania; he might offer German troops to "assist" in the invasion in return for securing buffer territory around Hungary and Romania

Out and out backing Yugoslavia and using German troops to fight Italians is something he himself wouldn't want to do AND his advisors would be completely against as well (plus it is likely to derail the time line for barbarossa which he wouldn't consent to)

[joea64]

Good that Balbo has this option on the table... the pickings are ripe

I can't speak to his domestic unrest problems (although I would think the plotters would hold themselves until after the military situation had taken shape)

But for the Germans sending their troops south... I hope your sending them into Romania for defensive purposes (as was done in otl after the Russians took Moldavia)

The Germans have no reason to backstop Yugoslavia, and have enough things to do on their plate. If this pissed Hitler off (which I'm a bit dubious of) he would pre-emptively send Goering (who was on good terms with a lot of the Italian political establishment) and the prince of Hesse to try to negotiate with Balbo. Their first request would be for him to cancel the idea (and they would offer some concession or more generous trade terms for German coal in order to get it) or depending on Hitler's mood at the time, and Balbo's willingness to renounce any intention of EVER having anything to do with Romania; he might offer German troops to "assist" in the invasion in return for securing buffer territory around Hungary and Romania

Out and out backing Yugoslavia and using German troops to fight Italians is something he himself wouldn't want to do AND his advisors would be completely against as well (plus it is likely to derail the time line for barbarossa which he wouldn't consent to)

All that is what Hitler would do, IF he was thinking rationally. But you have to remember this is Hitler we're talking about here. Never rule out the possibility of his going into a fit of rage when he hears about Italy's actions and ordering an all-out surge to take down "the betrayer of Fascism!"

Also, I don't think Farinacci is that good at being patient either. He may see the moment when Italian and German units clash as the perfect moment to launch his long-awaited coup to dispose of his hated rival, and it's pretty plain he has help from Himmler and the SS-SD. Actually, I can see Hitler ordering an invasion, even if he initially restricts himself to defensive deployments in Romaina, to restore "Fascist legitimacy" in Italy.

[BlairWitch749]

All that is what Hitler would do, IF he was thinking rationally. But you have to remember this is Hitler we're talking about here. Never rule out the possibility of his going into a fit of rage when he hears about Italy's actions and ordering an all-out surge to take down "the betrayer of Fascism!"

Also, I don't think Farinacci is that good at being patient either. He may see the moment when Italian and German units clash as the perfect moment to launch his long-awaited coup to dispose of his hated rival, and it's pretty plain he has help from Himmler and the SS-SD. Actually, I can see Hitler ordering an invasion, even if he initially restricts himself to defensive deployments in Romaina, to restore "Fascist legitimacy" in Italy.

This is 1940 Hitler, not 1944 Hitler. He was about as lucid and sane as he was during any point in the war at this time. There is no risk to Germany, in Italy duking it out with Yugoslavia (as long as Balbo promises to leave Romania alone, and since Romania would let in German troops to protect themselves, Hitler wouldn't feel the need to be so paradoid)... if anything Italian parallel aggressiveness is a net positive for Germany because it would increase entente paranoia about potential Italian moves against Egypt or Malta and require them to station more troops in the theater to do nothing

In terms of the harder right wing launching a coup prior to the invasion of Yugoslavia...I'm not an expert on internal Italian politics; but why on earth would you do that when the army is fully mobilized AND still inside the country (would be quite easy for Balbo to postpone the invasion temporarily whilst negotiating with the Germans and crush his opponents in a matter of days and then go right back to what he was doing)

[maverick]

That was shocking.

Just imagine the shitstorm in Rome if Balbo's little gamble results in a war with Germany.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Keep it going, Geekhis!

If this ends causing a war between Germany and Italy, then it's clear that Italy and the Allies are only allies of convenience and will never really trust each other. And if the Allies end owing Italy something at the end of the war, things may get messy...

[CCA]

The recent update reveals that for all of Balbo's sophistication and wit - he's just another tinpot authoritarian ready to sacrifice the lives of his lessers for political gain. :(

[Geekhis Khan]

Stay tuned. The "fun" has only just begun. :cool:

SO glad to see this getting going again! It looks like this is where Italy gets sucked, willy-nilly, into the Allied coalition. I'm certain Balbo didn't intend it that way, but once the Panzer formations show up and start tearing into the flanks of Italian units as they move into Croatia, the Marshal won't have much option but to seek help from Churchill. The question is, will Churchill be willing to help? I know you've got some curveballs to throw, but I can see the broad outlines of the early campaign forming...Italian incursions into Slovenia and Croatia, followed by a German counterstroke that knocks the Italians right back out again, followed up in turn by a blitzkrieg into the northeastern plains of Italy, to be followed up (at least in Hitler's plans) by a march all the way to Rome...

And I see Farinacci is about to make his move. From previous foreshadowing, it's plain he won't succeed in the long run, but in the short run...I daresay there are going to be some exciting times on the streets of Rome. ("Exciting" as in, for instance, pitched battles between "Second Wave" blackshirts and pro-Farinacci army units, on the one hand, and loyalist blackshirts and troops, on the other hand, as they fight over government ministries. Maybe an assassination attempt on Balbo, perhaps put in train by the SD?)

Good that Balbo has this option on the table... the pickings are ripe

I can't speak to his domestic unrest problems (although I would think the plotters would hold themselves until after the military situation had taken shape)

But for the Germans sending their troops south... I hope your sending them into Romania for defensive purposes (as was done in otl after the Russians took Moldavia)

The Germans have no reason to backstop Yugoslavia, and have enough things to do on their plate. If this pissed Hitler off (which I'm a bit dubious of) he would pre-emptively send Goering (who was on good terms with a lot of the Italian political establishment) and the prince of Hesse to try to negotiate with Balbo. Their first request would be for him to cancel the idea (and they would offer some concession or more generous trade terms for German coal in order to get it) or depending on Hitler's mood at the time, and Balbo's willingness to renounce any intention of EVER having anything to do with Romania; he might offer German troops to "assist" in the invasion in return for securing buffer territory around Hungary and Romania

Out and out backing Yugoslavia and using German troops to fight Italians is something he himself wouldn't want to do AND his advisors would be completely against as well (plus it is likely to derail the time line for barbarossa which he wouldn't consent to)

Tune in next time...things are about to get very strange indeed in Istria.

That was shocking.

Just imagine the shitstorm in Rome if Balbo's little gamble results in a war with Germany.

Imagine all the People...wondering WTF is happening.

Keep it going, Geekhis!

If this ends causing a war between Germany and Italy, then it's clear that Italy and the Allies are only allies of convenience and will never really trust each other. And if the Allies end owing Italy something at the end of the war, things may get messy...

Well, messy is the key word for what's coming up...

The recent update reveals that for all of Balbo's sophistication and wit - he's just another tinpot authoritarian ready to sacrifice the lives of his lessers for political gain. :(

You seem so surprised. ;)

[Jimbrock]

An interesting post, that leaking part fits very much into the current diplomatic scene... :D

[joea64]

Keep it going, Geekhis!

If this ends causing a war between Germany and Italy, then it's clear that Italy and the Allies are only allies of convenience and will never really trust each other. And if the Allies end owing Italy something at the end of the war, things may get messy...

Not too dissimilar, in other words, from the Soviet Union vis-a-vis the Western Allies OTL. As I suggested in the spring, there could be a big push from the right in the UK and the US to boost Balbian Italy as a partner for the Allies (not to mention American and British Jews who will, at that point, often see Balbo as the only leader in Europe with any kind of guts at all to stand up to Hitler on that issue - though, as we've seen, the actual situation on the ground is a bit more complicated). I wonder if TTL's "Second Front Now" campaign will center around conservatives, Jews and Italian-Americans urging FDR to land massive forces on the Italian Peninsula?

[joea64]

The recent update reveals that for all of Balbo's sophistication and wit - he's just another tinpot authoritarian ready to sacrifice the lives of his lessers for political gain. :(

While this ugly little detail will likely be papered over in histories of the war written in the 1950's and 1960's (probably trying to portray the Italian action as an effort to knock out a German puppet-in-the-making, for example), I'm quite positive that "revisionist" historians will bring out the more questionable elements of Balbo's actions in the following decades. This is why, as we saw way back when, the TTL Net's political discussion boards will be able to be categorized politically in part by where they stand on Balbian Italy during the Big One. ;)

[area11]

After rereading some earlier entries you mention a commonwealth has Italy created a British Commonwealth-esque organisation out of it's independent colonies presumably Somalia, Eritrea and a Jewish state in Ethiopia?

[mailinutile2]

dear author,
thank you for this very good piece.
just a few notes:

The Marina under Cavagnari was quick to promise naval victory, though warned of the dangers of Yugoslav MAS boats in the crowded Adriatic littoral.
Why should the jugoslavian navy call torpedo-boats with an italian acronym?
MAS (motoscafo anti sommergibile) makes sense for the RM, since italian torpedo boats began as being something completely different, and when were found to be more useful as torpedo boats, they kept the old name for sake of tradition; but I reckon this hardly can apply to the jugoslavian navy

Again on the RM: common sense would suggest at least the transfer of a share of the RM fleet from Taranto to Venice.
Mind you, common sense and the italian navy often don't walk in the same direction, according to my remembering of my military service period there :rolleyes:

General Baistroichi
Baistrocchi

He dictated a "guerra dei folgori"
correct italian would be "guerra delle folgori".
but if you are trying to translate "lightining war", an adjective should be used instead of a specification complement.
something like "guerra folgorante".
OTL name is "guerra lampo" (but I recognize that folgore has a more "roman" sound).

As the Italian army and air force mobilized for war in the east Farinacci initiated plans in the south.
why? his followers would be in the north (squadristi, futuristi, some fascist idealists).
The "agrari" which aided the rise of fascism (and among whom he could have some sympaty) were in Northern Italy, not in the southern one
the south was staunchly in the hands odf aristocrats of the old class which looked with extreme suspicion at him.
I advise him going in Lombardia (futuristi) or in Romagna (squadristi).
Predappio (Mussolini birthplace) would be nicely symbolic

[Geordie]

On July 5th, 1940, Balbo signed an executive order authorizing war with the Yugoslavs.

*SNIP*

As the Italian army and air force mobilized for war in the east Farinacci initiated plans in the south. Meanwhile, Himmler took action of his own to stem the Italian action. [...] Soon, German trains were rolling southward out of Poland, packed to capacity.

The Balkans will, yet again, be an "interesting" place.

Also, glad to see an update Geekhis. :)

[Geordie]

The Marina under Cavagnari was quick to promise naval victory, though warned of the dangers of Yugoslav MAS boats in the crowded Adriatic littoral.

Why should the jugoslavian navy call torpedo-boats with an italian acronym?
MAS (motoscafo anti sommergibile) makes sense for the RM, since italian torpedo boats began as being something completely different, and when were found to be more useful as torpedo boats, they kept the old name for sake of tradition; but I reckon this hardly can apply to the jugoslavian navy.
Without wanting to presume to speak for Geekhis, it could be explained. After all, this is an Italian briefing, with only Italians present. Isn't it acceptable for the RM to call the Yugoslav torpedo boats by the same name that they use for their own? Especially if they're talking to Balbo, who may not be au fait with foreign ship classifications?


Something like "guerra folgorante".
I like that. :cool:


EDIT: Sorry if this seems like a gratuitous double post. I commented on the TL update immediately after reading it, but also wanted to respond to this comment. I couldn't seem to quote it when editing the original post...

[Geekhis Khan]

An interesting post, that leaking part fits very much into the current diplomatic scene... :D

Yep...:D

Not too dissimilar, in other words, from the Soviet Union vis-a-vis the Western Allies OTL. As I suggested in the spring, there could be a big push from the right in the UK and the US to boost Balbian Italy as a partner for the Allies (not to mention American and British Jews who will, at that point, often see Balbo as the only leader in Europe with any kind of guts at all to stand up to Hitler on that issue - though, as we've seen, the actual situation on the ground is a bit more complicated). I wonder if TTL's "Second Front Now" campaign will center around conservatives, Jews and Italian-Americans urging FDR to land massive forces on the Italian Peninsula?

Quite possible on all of that.

While this ugly little detail will likely be papered over in histories of the war written in the 1950's and 1960's (probably trying to portray the Italian action as an effort to knock out a German puppet-in-the-making, for example), I'm quite positive that "revisionist" historians will bring out the more questionable elements of Balbo's actions in the following decades. This is why, as we saw way back when, the TTL Net's political discussion boards will be able to be categorized politically in part by where they stand on Balbian Italy during the Big One. ;)

There's a reason this TL began with the phrase "A Controversial Legend Reborn". ;)

After rereading some earlier entries you mention a commonwealth has Italy created a British Commonwealth-esque organisation out of it's independent colonies presumably Somalia, Eritrea and a Jewish state in Ethiopia?

Sounds like a good possibility.

dear author,
thank you for this very good piece.
just a few notes:


Why should the jugoslavian navy call torpedo-boats with an italian acronym?
MAS (motoscafo anti sommergibile) makes sense for the RM, since italian torpedo boats began as being something completely different, and when were found to be more useful as torpedo boats, they kept the old name for sake of tradition; but I reckon this hardly can apply to the jugoslavian navy

Again on the RM: common sense would suggest at least the transfer of a share of the RM fleet from Taranto to Venice.
Mind you, common sense and the italian navy often don't walk in the same direction, according to my remembering of my military service period there :rolleyes:

I'll let Geordie answer that one for me:

Without wanting to presume to speak for Geekhis, it could be explained. After all, this is an Italian briefing, with only Italians present. Isn't it acceptable for the RM to call the Yugoslav torpedo boats by the same name that they use for their own? Especially if they're talking to Balbo, who may not be au fait with foreign ship classifications?
[QUOTE=Geordie;3866352]Without wanting to presume to speak for Geekhis, it could be explained. After all, this is an Italian briefing, with only Italians present. Isn't it acceptable for the RM to call the Yugoslav torpedo boats by the same name that they use for their own? Especially if they're talking to Balbo, who may not be au fait with foreign ship classifications?

What he said. It's an Italian Admiral briefing an Italian Capo using Italian terminology, same as Gen. Spaatz would brief FDR using the term "German Fighters" rather than "Jaegers".


Baistrocchi

Grazie...I have to learn to quit posting by menory and start using my damned reference books. :o


correct italian would be "guerra delle folgori".
but if you are trying to translate "lightining war", an adjective should be used instead of a specification complement.
something like "guerra folgorante".
OTL name is "guerra lampo" (but I recognize that folgore has a more "roman" sound).


Again Grazie. I hoped one of my Italian readers would correct that one for me. I have to relly on Google's Blind Idiot translator.

I like "guerra folgorante". :D

why? his followers would be in the north (squadristi, futuristi, some fascist idealists).
The "agrari" which aided the rise of fascism (and among whom he could have some sympaty) were in Northern Italy, not in the southern one
the south was staunchly in the hands odf aristocrats of the old class which looked with extreme suspicion at him.
I advise him going in Lombardia (futuristi) or in Romagna (squadristi).
Predappio (Mussolini birthplace) would be nicely symbolic

You're correct...I mistyped! :o

The Balkans will, yet again, be an "interesting" place.

Also, glad to see an update Geekhis. :)

Thanks and glad to be back in the saddle again. :)

[Urban fox]

Not too dissimilar, in other words, from the Soviet Union vis-a-vis the Western Allies OTL. As I suggested in the spring, there could be a big push from the right in the UK and the US to boost Balbian Italy as a partner for the Allies (not to mention American and British Jews who will, at that point, often see Balbo as the only leader in Europe with any kind of guts at all to stand up to Hitler on that issue - though, as we've seen, the actual situation on the ground is a bit more complicated). I wonder if TTL's "Second Front Now" campaign will center around conservatives, Jews and Italian-Americans urging FDR to land massive forces on the Italian Peninsula?

Speaking of the Soviet Union what is Stalin’s thinking of all this and how will events in the east be changed?

I mean with Italy and Germany fighting the whole Africa campaign is indeed butterflied and massive German forces may be tied down fighting the Anglo-Italian forces in the Italian peninsula or face trouble elsewhere. So Operation Barbarossa wont be the same for a start.

Hell Japan may have a harder time of things ITTL, if the UK has more forces to spare...

[joea64]

Speaking of the Soviet Union what is Stalin’s thinking of all this and how will events in the east be changed?

I mean with Italy and Germany fighting the whole Africa campaign is indeed butterflied and massive German forces may be tied down fighting the Anglo-Italian forces in the Italian peninsula or face trouble elsewhere. So Operation Barbarossa wont be the same for a start.

Hell Japan may have a harder time of things ITTL, if the UK has more forces to spare...

See, this is why I postulated that Hitler would react negatively. If he's acting TTL more or less as OTL at this point, he's gearing up for the Battle of Britain, which I assume will proceed fairly much as OTL (though, of course, without the participation of Italian air forces on the German side - not that they had very much to add OTL), and making initial plans for Barbarossa. He's going to want southeastern Europe to stay nice and quiet and is NOT going to appreciate Balbo kicking up a fuss by invading Yugoslavia, even if Balbo promises on a stack of Mein Kampfs not to threaten Romania and its oil fields. Another question is, how much, if anything, does the Fuehrer know about Himmler's connivances with Farinacci?

It's pretty much a given that there won't be a North African Campaign TTL, at least not as we know it. Assuming - and this is still a big if right now - that substantial British forces are committed to assist Italy resist German invasion, perhaps we might look forward in due course to Rommel and Montgomery dueling on the plains of Lombardy.

Geekhis hasn't said much yet about Asia, but I assume that the butterflies haven't flapped much there yet, meaning that Japan is probably on schedule to move into French Indochina later this year (1940). Whether they have a more or less difficult time, or about the same, when they decide to "Strike South" depends, I would say, in large part on how much the British are focused on helping/propping up Italy.

Right now, this is how I see things developing:

1) Italy invades, striking through Slovenia and Croatia.
2) The Germans riposte by launching columns from Romania, moving through Serbia to confront the Italians. (They might also divert some forces to take down Hungary.)
3) Simultaneously with the German action, Farinacci and his Squadristi goons stage an uprising in Northern/Northeastern Italy, declaring the Balbian regime "illegitimate" and setting up their own government (capital at Milan perhaps?), and attack central government facilities in Rome. The SS-SD lends a hand with its own brand of sabotage and subversion, possibly including an assassination attempt on Balbo himself. Farinacci's thugs commit vicious attacks on Italian Jews, aristocrats and other pro-Balbo segments of Italian society.

At this point, this is where Balbo will have to really, really demonstrate his political chops to survive.

[Greenlanterncorps]

Thanks and glad to be back in the saddle again. :)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuX28N2ckk0&feature=related

[Greenlanterncorps]

Hell Japan may have a harder time of things ITTL, if the UK has more forces to spare...


That's putting it mildly, the entire Mediterranean naval war is gone. While their may be coastal skirmishes, but the Med will be an Allied lake. The Royal Navy and Regia Marina can contain any German threat and the French fleet, which may just bolt for North Africa anyway.

Not to mention,all of the British Army RN, and RAF forces that were defending Egypt will now be available to backstop the Italians, defend Singapore, and help in Northwest Europe.

If the French fall back to North Africa, then Japan cannot move on French Indo-China and that pretty much ends the Pacific War. If the French don't, then then the British still have resources to defend Singapore and backstop the Italians at the same time.

[DuQuense]

The Balkans will, yet again, be an "interesting" place.The Balkans being a "Interesting Place" is one of the long term constants of History. Going back to before Islander the Great.

[Greenlanterncorps]

1 – The Battle of France has gone roughly OTL. I spent a good deal of time trying to determine what butterflies, if any, would alter things. Italian involvement was inconsequential OTL, so its absence changes nothing. The best I could do was a random butterfly saving the Me-108 with the Fall Gelb plans, but it appears that the plan was evolving towards a more Manstein-like envelopment even before, and considering Hitler's desire for such a bold plan it seems likely such a plan will arise ITTL as IOTL. I made it Manstein as OTL for simplicity. Call it a couple more days of Entente holdout due to the Entente lacking the overconfidence in their plans after the Me-108 and less need to plan for Italian intervention.



Geekhis,

How closely does this follow our time line? I can see things remaining roughly the same in May of 1940 regardless of the actual German plan used. The French command and military are simply not prepared for the Greman attack. June however could be different.

I'm assuming some sort of evacuation of the BEF and some French forces. The British government will simply not allow it's main field army to be trapped on the continent. They will evacuate what ever they can.

How long do the French hold out? In our time line France found itself facing a two front war. While the Italians did not do much (You might want to look up that campaign, it will give you some idea of how the Italians will perform in this era.), they were there. It had to be a factor in the French surrender. In this time line they do not have that problem, the only threat is to the North. I see three possibilities:

1. The same collapse and Vichy government as in our timeline.

2. The French hold out a little longer and evacuate to Corsica and North Africa, this brings the war to the doorstep of Balboist Italy. The plans for invading Yugoslavia might get put on hold with a German bombing campaign against Corsica. With no Vichy government, German troops are on the Italian border with France.

3. "The Marseilles Perimeter" The French mange to get their act together, and stage a fighting withdrawal to Southeast France with a defense line running from the Alps on the Swiss or Italian border, to the sea somewhere to the West of Marseilles. This puts the War also on the Italian border. Now, I don't know how feasible this is as there are several open questions about the condition of the French Forces, the supply situation, the geography of the area allowing for a defense line, etc. But it WILL effect Italy.

Just my $0.02 worth.

[Geordie]

The Balkans being a "Interesting Place" is one of the long term constants of History. Going back to before Islander the Great.
Sadly, it seems that whatever happens, at whatever time, the Balkans will be torn to shreds. Both from without and within.


Geekhis,

How closely does this follow our time line? I can see things remaining roughly the same in May of 1940 regardless of the actual German plan used. The French command and military are simply not prepared for the Greman attack. June however could be different.

*SNIP*

Just my $0.02 worth.
I must admit, I was wondering the same myself. Without Italian involvement, I can't see a French collapse happening exactly as OTL. I don't know how different it could be, but it would have to be somewhat different, surely? Leslie Nielsen, RIP.

[Geekhis Khan]

That's putting it mildly, the entire Mediterranean naval war is gone. While their may be coastal skirmishes, but the Med will be an Allied lake. The Royal Navy and Regia Marina can contain any German threat and the French fleet, which may just bolt for North Africa anyway.

Not to mention,all of the British Army RN, and RAF forces that were defending Egypt will now be available to backstop the Italians, defend Singapore, and help in Northwest Europe.

If the French fall back to North Africa, then Japan cannot move on French Indo-China and that pretty much ends the Pacific War. If the French don't, then then the British still have resources to defend Singapore and backstop the Italians at the same time.

Geekhis,

How closely does this follow our time line? I can see things remaining roughly the same in May of 1940 regardless of the actual German plan used. The French command and military are simply not prepared for the Greman attack. June however could be different.

I'm assuming some sort of evacuation of the BEF and some French forces. The British government will simply not allow it's main field army to be trapped on the continent. They will evacuate what ever they can.

How long do the French hold out? In our time line France found itself facing a two front war. While the Italians did not do much (You might want to look up that campaign, it will give you some idea of how the Italians will perform in this era.), they were there. It had to be a factor in the French surrender. In this time line they do not have that problem, the only threat is to the North. I see three possibilities:

1. The same collapse and Vichy government as in our timeline.

2. The French hold out a little longer and evacuate to Corsica and North Africa, this brings the war to the doorstep of Balboist Italy. The plans for invading Yugoslavia might get put on hold with a German bombing campaign against Corsica. With no Vichy government, German troops are on the Italian border with France.

3. "The Marseilles Perimeter" The French mange to get their act together, and stage a fighting withdrawal to Southeast France with a defense line running from the Alps on the Swiss or Italian border, to the sea somewhere to the West of Marseilles. This puts the War also on the Italian border. Now, I don't know how feasible this is as there are several open questions about the condition of the French Forces, the supply situation, the geography of the area allowing for a defense line, etc. But it WILL effect Italy.

Just my $0.02 worth.

I must admit, I was wondering the same myself. Without Italian involvement, I can't see a French collapse happening exactly as OTL. I don't know how different it could be, but it would have to be somewhat different, surely? Leslie Nielsen, RIP.

To be honest, I've been trying to determine that myself. I initially expected a completely different situation than OTL without the "second front", but to be honest, the Italian "involvement" was a joke. It's been a while since I last looked into it, but IIRC France never even diverted any forces south since the Italians never managed to push more than a handful of miles into France to begin with, even with the northern front in full collapse and only a few border units on hand to defend the Italian frontier. Hell, the Battle of France was effectively over by the time Italy entered the war. DOW was 10 June, the day the French Gov't fled to Tours and Paris was declared "open". Dunkirk was 5 days over. The first Italian offensive was on 21 June after 11 days of plodding, clumsy mobilization, by which point the Heer was already at Nantes, Vichy, Leon and La Rochelle and pushing on Bourdeaux & Valence and the BEF was almost entirely off the continent. French Army Group 2, surrounded, surrendered to the Germans 22 June.

Unless the psychological effects on French leaders of having Italy nipping at their heels made a major influence on thinking, I'm not entirely sure it affects the situation much.

The big Q's that need to be satisfactorally addressed are:

a) what factors led to the descision to drop out OTL? We know the French Army could have fought on longer in some respect, but did the Gov't know that or care? Did the gov't feel preserving France was more important than hanging on? Remember, by this point no one truly realizes the extent of Hitler's evil and madness...did they think an "honorable peace" was in the cards?

According to the Wikipedia article on Petain (the best online source I can find on the French descision, unfortunately - added emphasis mine):


On 24 May 1940 the French Army was being pushed back by the invading Germans. General Maxime Weygand (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxime_Weygand) expressed his fury at the British retreats and the promises of British air fighters which did not materialise. He and Maréchal Petain regarded the military situation as hopeless. Premier Paul Reynard (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Paul_Reynard&action=edit&redlink=1) said, before a parliamentary commission of enquiry in December 1950, that he said to Petain on that day that they must seek an armistice. Weygand said that he was in favour of saving the French army and that he “wished to avoid internal troubles and above all anarchy”. Churchill’s man in Paris, Spears, kept up continual pressure on the French, and on 31 May he met with Pétain and threatened France with not only a blockade, but bombardment of the French ports if an armistice was agreed. Spears reported that Pétain did not respond immediately but stood there "perfectly erect, with no sign of panic or emotion. He did not disguise the fact that he considered the situation catastrophic. I could not detect any sign in him of broken morale, of that mental wringing of hands and incipient hysteria noticeable in others". Pétain later remarked to Reynard about this threat, saying "your ally now threatens us".
On 5 June, following the fall of Dunkirk (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkirk), there was a Cabinet reshuffle, and Prime Minister Reynaud brought Pétain, Weygand, and the newly-promoted Brigadier-General de Gaulle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_de_Gaulle), whose 4th Armoured Division had launched one of the few French counterattacks the previous month[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)], into his War Cabinet, hoping that the trio might instill a renewed spirit of resistance and patriotism in the French Army. On 8 June Baudouin dined with Chautemps and both declared that the war must end. Paris was now threatened and the government was preparing to depart, although Petain was opposed to such a move. During a cabinet meeting that day Reynard argued about an armistice as he was worried about England. Petain replied that "the interests of France come before those of England. England got us into this position, let us now try to get out of it".
On 10 June the government left Paris for Tours. Weygand, the Commander-in-Chief, now declared that “the fighting had become meaningless” and he, Baudouin, and several members of the government were already set on an armistice. On 11 June Churchill flew to the Chateau du Muguet, at Briar, near Orleans (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orleans), where he put forward first his idea of a Breton (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brittany) redoubt, to which Weygand replied that it was just a 'fantasy'.[20] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_P%C3%A9tain#cite_note-19) Churchill then said the French should consider "guerrilla warfare" until the Americans came into the war, to which several cabinet members asked "when might that be" and received no reply. Pétain then replied that it would mean the destruction of the country. Churchill then said the French should defend Paris and repeated Clemenceau’s words "I will fight in front of Paris, in Paris, and behind Paris". To this, Churchill says, Pétain replied quietly and with dignity that he had in those days a strategic reserve of sixty divisions; now there was none. Making Paris into a ruin would not affect the final event. The following day the cabinet met, and Weygand again called for an armistice. He referred to the danger of military and civil disorder and the possibility of a Communist uprising in Paris. Pétain and Minister of Information Prouvost urged the Cabinet to hear Weygand out because "he was the only one really to know what was happening".
Churchill returned on the 13th. Paul Baudouin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Baudouin) met his plane and immediately spoke to him of the hopelessness of French resistance. Reynard then put the cabinet’s armistice proposals to Churchill, who replied that "whatever happened, we would level no reproaches against France". At that day’s Cabinet meeting Pétain read out a draft proposal to the Cabinet where he spoke of "the need to stay in France, to prepare a national revival, and to share the sufferings of our people. It is impossible for the Government to abandon French soil without emigrating, without deserting. The duty of the Government is, come what may, to remain in the country, or it could not longer be regarded as the government". Several ministers were still opposed to an armistice, and Weygand immediately lashed out at them for even leaving Paris. Like Pétain, he said he would never leave France.
The government moved to Bordeaux (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bordeaux), the city to which French Governments had fled in the face of German invasions in 1870 and 1914, on 14 June. Parliament, both Senate and Chamber, was also there and involved themselves in the armistice debate. Reynard’s ambiguous position was becoming seriously compromised. Admiral Darlan was now in the armistice camp also. Reynard now proposed his alternative compromise: Complete surrender, and the army (after laying down its arms) leave the country and continue the fight from abroad. Weygand exploded and he and Pétain both said that such a capitulation would be dishonourable. The Cabinet was now split almost evenly. Camille Chautemps (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camille_Chautemps) then said the only way to get agreement was to ask the Germans what their terms for an armistice would be and the cabinet voted 13 – 6 in agreement. The next day Roosevelt’s reply to President Lebrun’s requests for assistance came with only vague promises and saying that it was impossible for the President to do anything without Congress.
After lunch, President Albert Lebrun (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Lebrun) received two telegrams from the British saying they would only agree to an armistice if the French fleet was immediately sent to British ports. In addition the British Government offered joint nationality for Frenchmen and Englishmen in a Franco-British Union. Reynaud and five ministers thought these proposals acceptable. The others did not, seeing the offer as insulting and a device to make France subservient to Great Britain, as a kind of extra Dominion. Reynaud gave up and asked President Lebrun to accept his resignation as Prime Minister, and nominated Maréchal Pétain in his place.
A new Cabinet was formed in the normal way, and at midnight on the 15th Baudouin was asking the Spanish Ambassador to submit to Germany a request to cease hostilities at once and for Germany to make known its peace terms. At 12:30 a.m. Maréchal Pétain made his first broadcast to the French people.
"The enthusiasm of the country for the Maréchal was tremendous. He was welcomed by people as diverse as Claudel, Gide, and Mauriac, and also by the vast mass of untutored Frenchmen who saw him as their saviour."[21] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_P%C3%A9tain#cite_note-20) General de Gaulle, no longer in the Cabinet, had arrived in London on the 16th and made a call for resistance from there on the 18th, with no legal authority whatsoever from his government, which was heeded by comparatively few.
Cabinet and Parliament still argued between themselves on the question of whether to retreat to North Africa, or not. On 18 June Edouard Herriot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edouard_Herriot) (who would later be a - discredited - prosecution witness at Pétain's trial) and Jeanneney (Presidents of the two Chambers of Parliament) and Lebrun said they wanted to go. Pétain said he was not departing. On the 20th a delegation from the two chambers came to Pétain to protest at the proposed departure of President Lebrun. The next day they went to Lebrun himself. In the event only 26 deputies and one single senator headed for Africa, amongst them Georges Mandel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Mandel), Pierre Mendés France (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pierre_Mend%C3%A9s_France&action=edit&redlink=1), and the former Popular Front Education Minister, Jean Zay (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Zay), all of whom had Jewish backgrounds.[22] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_P%C3%A9tain#cite_note-21) Petain broadcast again on that day.
On 22 June France signed an armistice (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armistice) with Germany that gave Germany control over the north and west of the country, including Paris and all of the Atlantic coastline, but left the rest, around two-fifths of France's prewar territory, unoccupied. Paris remained the de jure capital. On 29 June the French Government moved to Clermont-Ferrand (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clermont-Ferrand) where the first discussions of constitutional changes were mooted with Pierre Laval (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Laval) having personal discussions with President Lebrun (who had in the event not departed France). On 1 July the government, finding Clermont too cramped, moved to the spa (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spa) town of Vichy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vichy), at Baudouin’s suggestion, the empty hotels there being be more suitable for the government ministries.
The Chamber of Deputies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_of_France) and Senate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_France), meeting together as a "Congrès (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Congress)," had an emergency meeting on 10 July to ratify the armistice. At the same time, the draft constitutional proposals were tabled. The Presidents of both Chambers both spoke, and said constitutional reform was necessary. The Congress voted 569-80 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vichy_80) (with 18 abstentions) to grant the Cabinet the authority to draw up a new constitution, effectively "voting the Third Republic out of existence".[23] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippe_P%C3%A9tain#cite_note-22) On the next day, Pétain formally assumed near-absolute powers as "Head of State", but adding "this is not ancient Rome and I have no wish to be Caesar".


Based on that (I know, I know :rolleyes:) it leans very heavily towards OTL Armistice. Unless De Gaulle takes the day somehow, then it looks more and more like the majority of French Generals want out of the war and fear what England will do more than Germany at that point. Few military or government fled the country OTL, showing little stomach to continue the fight. Italian involvement isn't even mentioned, even in passing.

b) would France beleive that Italy would come to their aid ATL? I'm doubtful, but hope floats...like another thing I can think of.

c) what could induce France to fight on? By the time Italy entered the war OTL France was already in full collapse. The Air Force had escaped to North Africa, but the Army was almost entirely routed, the major cities of the north and midlands are occupied. I have little reason to beleive the situation is much different ATL save for minor butterflies.

In my mind the biggest possible effect is North Africa now being a bonafide Safe Haven without the immediate threat of invasion from Libya. The remaining Air Force is already there. The Navy is intact and could escape to Corsica or Algeria or even England.

But will that overcome the inertia in the top levels to avoid "Communist revolution", anarchy, and damage to France by any means necessary? At most I can possibly see full Armistice being a harder sell, with more possibly choosing the late "Reynard plan" to flee and fight, with perhaps a larger, more "official" Free France in North Africa...but how big and who will join?



Unless someone can provide more an clear reason for the Free French Africa idea, I'm leaning heavily towards OTL Armistice situation. Anyone with some counterpoint on this? Anyone think enough people will go for the Reynard plan?

And Greenlantern, what's your rationale for Japan not seizing FIC ATL if there's a Free French Africa? As I see it they'd have even more rationale to do so in that situation given that "Free France" is still at war with their anti-comintern "allies". I don't see them dispatching the fleet to Saigon when it's needed in the North Atlantic.


And Geordie, stop calling me Shirley. (RIP Leslie :-( )

[Greenlanterncorps]

And Greenlantern, what's your rationale for Japan not seizing FIC ATL if there's a Free French Africa? As I see it they'd have even more rationale to do so in that situation given that "Free France" is still at war with their anti-comintern "allies". I don't see them dispatching the fleet to Saigon when it's needed in the North Atlantic.


In our timeline, the Japanese walked into French Indo-China without any opposition from the Vichy aligned government or Vichy France itself.

In any timeline with a single French government-in-exile (as what happened with the Dutch) the excuses the Japanese used do not exist. The Japanese cannot walk in without opposition from both the French garrison and British Forces. That means war with both France and Great Britain at the same time, and because of the proximity of the Philippines that could drag in the United States.

It is a different war than the one fought in our timeline and not to Japan's favor because of the geography involved. Japan can't attack Malaya until it subdues Indo-China. Malaya and Singapore have more time to get reinforcements, and Singapore becomes a forward staging area for Indo-China. Japan might well take Indo-China, but it will cost them several weeks of time and effort, and buy the British and Dutch time to prepare.

Japan can only walk into Indo-China if there is a Vichy government to grant permission.

[DuQuense]

Based on that (I know, I know ) it leans very heavily towards OTL Armistice.what could induce France to fight on? By the time Italy entered the war OTL France was already in full collapse. The Air Force had escaped to North Africa, but the Army was almost entirely routed, the major cities of the north and midlands are occupied. I have little reason to believe the situation is much different ATL save for minor butterflies. All I can see is Butterflies due to the Balkan Mobilization, problems identified to allow better results a year later. Even a couple extra weeks makes a lot of difference.

[Geekhis Khan]

In our timeline, the Japanese walked into French Indo-China without any opposition from the Vichy aligned government or Vichy France itself.

In any timeline with a single French government-in-exile (as what happened with the Dutch) the excuses the Japanese used do not exist. The Japanese cannot walk in without opposition from both the French garrison and British Forces. That means war with both France and Great Britain at the same time, and because of the proximity of the Philippines that could drag in the United States.

It is a different war than the one fought in our timeline and not to Japan's favor because of the geography involved. Japan can't attack Malaya until it subdues Indo-China. Malaya and Singapore have more time to get reinforcements, and Singapore becomes a forward staging area for Indo-China. Japan might well take Indo-China, but it will cost them several weeks of time and effort, and buy the British and Dutch time to prepare.

Japan can only walk into Indo-China if there is a Vichy government to grant permission.

Good points, actually. The US might remain neutral unless the Philippines are directly threatened or attacked (embargo, on the other hand), but the Brits and Dutch are definately in the fight and Japan's situation is far more difficult.

All I can see is Butterflies due to the Balkan Mobilization, problems identified to allow better results a year later. Even a couple extra weeks makes a lot of difference.

And that's kind of a stretch. At best France learns from Italian difficulties, but still, does that affect matters? As OTL there's been a long Sitzkrieg/Phoney War such that mobilization isn't the French problem, but failure to forsee an Ardennes offensive. Nothing in the Balkans Crisis really changes that that I can see.

I'm going with OTL parallel on this one. Maybe a few more votes in favor of fighting on in exile at first, but those probably evaporate after the Franco-British Union is proposed.

[Geekhis Khan]

Legend ascribes the birth of Unternehmen Loki to a relatively unknown Untersturmführer, there, the story goes, by invite of Kaltenbrunner. "There" was an emergency meeting of the OKH and high government officials held in response to the recent acquisition of intelligence regarding a planned Italian invasion of Yugoslavia. The planned Italian action was a source of great confusion for the German officials involved, for none could quite agree what course of action was in the Reich's greatest interest. Italian conquest of Yugoslavia placed a potential enemy closer to critical strategic petroleum resources in Romania and strengthened Italian claims to Balkan hegemony, claims in direct contrast to German interests. The German ambassador in Budapest reported that the Italians were meeting frequently with the Hungarians. The obvious conclusion was that they hoped to co-invade, which might cement the earlier Italo-Hungarian cooperation [1]. Together this spelled potential isolation from Romania, an unacceptable situation. Himmler brought up another salient point: victory in Yugoslavia would shore up the Balbian regime, a regime considered hostile to the interests of the Reich, while defeat would deligitimize the Balbian regime, helping to facilitate the ongoing Clandestine efforts of Unternehmen Thor [2]. The situation was further comfounded by recent Germano-Yugoslav diplomatic efforts. Hitler had just the previous year assured Prince Paul that Germany would guarantee Yugoslav independence. While it was certainly an empty promise built upon the temproary strategic necessities of the Italo-German Balkan crisis, it still stuck with many in the room as a point of honor.

The debate raged. For Rundstedt the planned Italian conquest was a direct threat to the German southern flank and the critical Pollesti oil deposits, and he recommended intervention on the side of the Yugoslavs. For Manstein it was an opportunity to invade Yugoslavia alongside the Italians, securing a buffer zone around Hungary and putting a Jackboot in the door to Italo-Hungarian cooperation. "Let the dagos have the coasts" he is said to have said, "we will take the highlands". For Göring it was hardly an issue at all. "Who cares if the Half-Semites [3] and Slavs wish to kill one another?" Himmler, meanwhile, was opposed to both the Italian war and to German involvement therein, on either side. Balbian victory, even diluted by German support, would undermine his ongoing efforts in Unternehmen Thor. Italo-German conflict, on the other hand, would derail in his Jewish resettlement efforts, Italian cooperation being a critical component. Furthermore, in the event of German assault on Italy Balbo could position himself as the defender of the Madrepatria, further undermining Thor.

Eventually a consensus arose that the best-case scenario would be for Italy to lose the war on her own, yet not all were convinced she would. Italy held large technological and numerical advantages and would likely be sucessful in getting Albania and Bulgaria on board for the invasion, possibly Hungary and Greece as well. All Yugoslavia had in its favor was defensible terrain, particularly on the rugged Istrian border region where only a few insufficient roads and railways served a narrow, mountainous front. It was soon agreed by most that a long, drawn-out war of attrition that blooded the Italians would suffice as well, and might be easier to facilitate than a total Italian humiliation. Yet how to acheive such a plan was a fiercely debated topic. Partisan warfare would certainly help and Heydrich noted the many anti-Italian Croat groups in Istria, including those who had sheltered Mussolini's assassin earlier. However, the Marxist and anarchist philosophy of most of these groups was a hard pill to swallow and the certainty of Italian support for Slovene and Croat independence diminished the possibilities there. The best hope was for Serbian partisan groups, but how far would Italy venture into Serb territory? The going intelligence estimates assumed that the Italian Army might not choose to invade much farther than Zagreb, a penitration intelligece estimated could take the Italians "as little as three days".

According to the legend, the debate raged on until an unfamiliar voice was heard over the fray. The new voice, belonging to a middle-aged Untersturmführer with "penetrating eyes and a scar-twisted smile", was laughing, loudly.

"What is it?" Himmler reportedly snapped.

"We want the Italians tied up in knots, and we wish to get rid of our...little problem. Why can we not kill two birds with one stone?" the Untersturmführer replied. His plan would require only a minimal investment of German military strength and would, he assured them, not only tie up the Italian invasion plans, but would doubly humiliate Marshal Balbo by being a product of his own foreign policies.

As he laid out his plan there was at first disbelief, even sneers, but, the legend continues, the plausibility of the plan began to emerge with serious discussion. Securing the trains would be simple enough, and rail lines directly to the target deployment area had existed since the days of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The hard part would be securing Yugoslavian permission to cross the border, but with with enough greasing of palms and diplomatic assurances, Hess maintained, it could be done. The Untersturmführer's plan began to take shape, soon evolving into Unternehmen Loki, though the Untersturmführer himself reportedly prefered the name "Ratteschwarm".

The Untersturmführer, a man who would gain infamy later in the war and post-war, was Otto Skorzeny. And there is no historical evidence nor circumstantial reason to beleive that he was actually present at the meeting. Most likely the plan evolved through discussion, though Skorzeny, whose actions in France had been previously noted by the SS heirarchy, was selected as the one to execute the operation.

From an article in World War Two Journal, Fall 1968 by Dr. Shlomo Geltenbaum, Professor Emeritus, University of Gondor.


************************************************

Note a piè di pagina:

1 – Recall the recent Balkan Crisis situation: Italy, Hungary, Albania, and Bulgaria allied against Germany, Romania, and Yugoslavia.

2 – "...'e sez knowingly..." ;)

3 – This comment is based on the popular Nazi "Racial Science" ascertation of ATL that Italy, particularly southern Italy, had been "ethnically polluted" by "Arabs and Africans" during the middle ages.

[BlairWitch749]

interesting update (I wonder what scarface otto has in mind here)

small nitpicks:

Rundstead and Manstein wouldn't be consulted on this until Hitler decided on an overall strategy (ie whose side he wants to be on) they would only be in charge of drawing up war plans that fulfill Hitler's wishes

even if Goering was personally apathetic about the situation (not impossible) Hitler would still want him to at least visit with Balbo and the King to try to negotiate (even if he was going to double cross them later)

larger concerns nitpicks

The SS did not have the influence at this time that you are attributing to them; Himmler didn't have the sort of influence yet, nor was Goering disgraced enough where this sort of track would follow very easily. Skorzeny was also a nobody at this point... any kind of special operation like this in 1940 would be the purview of the abwehr and the brandenburgers

I'm stunned Germany is choosing this course of action (risking or out and out choosing) war with a large powerful country that is a semi friendly neutral, when there is zero possible strategic gain for Germany... I mean even if Hitler wants contingincy plans on the table for later; I can't follow not at least negotiating with Balbo to try to smooth things over or trying to convince him to cancel the invasion... Germany has a lot of leverage to apply in such talks and good diplomatic contacts throughout Italy... Hitler seems to be getting off his rocker awfully early without a proper stimulus:(

[Geordie]

The Untersturmführer, a man who would gain great reknown later in the war and post-war, was Otto Skorzeny.

Renown? That sounds rather a positive word to associate with such a name.

[Geekhis Khan]

interesting update (I wonder what scarface otto has in mind here)

Thanks again for the input, BW; your points are all valid...but unfortunately you're missing some key aspects of the plan and related future events I haven't divulged yet. There's a "wait and see" factor here that will answer some of your points, but I'll address some of them as best as possible without spoilers:

small nitpicks:

Rundstead and Manstein wouldn't be consulted on this until Hitler decided on an overall strategy (ie whose side he wants to be on) they would only be in charge of drawing up war plans that fulfill Hitler's wishes

Good to know...I might retcon that specific aspect but remember...

even if Goering was personally apathetic about the situation (not impossible) Hitler would still want him to at least visit with Balbo and the King to try to negotiate (even if he was going to double cross them later)

...to keep in mind that this is describing the myth of the discussion that's passed through word-of-mouth, altered over the years by the retelling and hindsight, not the actual meeting minutes discussions, which are unknown. Most of this should be considered speculation and hearsay rather than documentation.

In fact, there was never any "one meeting" as described (this was a literary convininece I used to be concise), but a series of ongoing consultations, meetings, advice, and councils that developed the plan slowly over a course of days.

larger concerns nitpicks

The SS did not have the influence at this time that you are attributing to them; Himmler didn't have the sort of influence yet, nor was Goering disgraced enough where this sort of track would follow very easily.

Himmler here simply advised Hitler based on his ongiong missions and information, much like the other Nazi leaders did for their respective spheres...he didn't make the desicion, come up with the plan, or have an overwhelming impact on the decision. Once the planned couse of action was taken it was given to the SS, since what is planned (you will see) is totally under their baliwick.

And once again, remember: this was the myth, written decades after the fact. Himmler's apparent influence here is in part motivated by the author's hindsight.

Skorzeny was also a nobody at this point... any kind of special operation like this in 1940 would be the purview of the abwehr and the brandenburgers

Again...this is the Myth, not the Reality. He was never at the meeting and he was not the one who came up with the "plan"...which isn't what you seem to think it is. Skorzeny was chosen to lead the field execution of the plan by SS field commanders. As a skilled and audacious "nobody" he's also completely deniable and expendable. And plausible deniability is a key component here.

I'm stunned Germany is choosing this course of action (risking or out and out choosing) war with a large powerful country that is a semi friendly neutral, when there is zero possible strategic gain for Germany... I mean even if Hitler wants contingincy plans on the table for later; I can't follow not at least negotiating with Balbo to try to smooth things over or trying to convince him to cancel the invasion... Germany has a lot of leverage to apply in such talks and good diplomatic contacts throughout Italy... Hitler seems to be getting off his rocker awfully early without a proper stimulus:(

Are they choosing war with Italy? ;)

And where did you get "semi-friendly"? Remember, ITTL Balbian Italy has, just in the last three years, openly condemned Anschluss and Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovlakia, personally insulted Hitler publically (his "Ogre" Opera comments), clandestinely sold arms to the Reich's enemies, and most notably nearly gone to war with Germany over the Balkans. This is not toadying, Germanophile Mussolini but an openly critical and potentially beligerent Germanophobe Balbo who has, temporarily, set up an uneasy neutral peace by selling Poland to the wolves.

The Germans ITTL are very wary of Italy. As I posted in the update they rightly fear the close Italo-Hungarian ties. With zero access to major petroleum reserves outside of Romania (and soon-to-be enemy USSR), and with Hungary and Yugoslavia in Italian hands, they'll be in a stranglehold if Italian plans go through.

They don't want war with Italy right now, but they absolutely can't afford to risk cut-off from Romania.

And "Operation Thor" (to be described later) has already been approved by Hitler prior to the leak of the Italian plans...as described above there's a risk to this plan if Balbo is sucessful in Yugoslavia. Operation Loki was seen as the best hope for achieving Thor while stopping the Italian war.

And I fully admit I'm getting a bit "rule of cool" here. ;)

You make very good points on the diplomatic potential, and that option is still (believe it or not) on the table. But since they have an obvious high level source (how else did they get this intel?) they risk exposing the leak if they start asking about the planned (and currently Top Secret) war in Yugoslavia. Instead, the time to openly talk (or strongly hint) of these things is once Italian mobilization is mature enough to make the intent obvious enough.

Renown? That sounds rather a positive word to associate with such a name.

Typo...and you're right. Infamy might be more appropriate.

[Geordie]

Typo...and you're right. Infamy might be more appropriate.

Just checking.

I'd certainly have it in for him. Slightly more British pun than the Shirley line...

[BlairWitch749]

GK,

I suppose I can hold judgement on the plan till you develop it further

In terms of me calling them a "semi" friendly neutral. Italy is still right wing, and despite Balbo's personality, more closely aligned politically with Germany than with Britain. If Hitler was going after Russia, large segments of Balbo's government and people would demand that Italy participate. Butting heads over spheres of influence wasn't outside the actual purview of the axis in otl and even Benny was dubious of Italy's people's reaction to German moves on highly catholic states like Poland. Italy's stance is almost a mirror image of Franco in otl, and there where very viable strategic reasons to mess with him...I'm unsure of Hitler's objectives here, Balbo, even aggressive towards everyone is surely a net positive overall for him if he keeps the British concerned about other potential moves; as opposed to actually fighting Italy or drawing them into a civil war

there would be a huge swatch of Hitler's Kamerilla against screwing with Balbo, even if he was MORE hostile than you have displayed him to be. Raeder and Goering would council towards negotiate and keeping things quiet. Ribbentrop would want to display his impressive resources inside Italy to show he could negotiate with them to get Balbo to stand down. Rommel (who Hitler would suredly council before making any move against Italy which could result in war) would tell him what kind of resources it would take which would be both convincing and dissauding; Paulus and Keitel would tell him the same thing (and these where people he WAS willing to listen to in 1940)

it seems you my have slightly written yourself into a box... if Hitler is going to go off the deep end and lose his marbles about Italy now, it would be strange for him to do it BEFORE Italy has turned the balkans into a craphole, when he still has a chance to head it off, negotiate or out and out threaten Italy into not doing it... it would have been more likely for him to see the need to do something about Italy if they invaded before he had a chance to do something about it... although you could always take the track that the Germans do negotiate, Balbo tells them to go fuck themselves, and invades Yugoslavia anway and THEN he flips the hell out

[The Sandman]

Sounds like a plan to start shipping Jews and other "undesirables" into Italy in massive numbers, with the intent of creating an ugly refugee crisis centered on the part of Italy any invasion of Yugoslavia would be launched from. Presumably the Germans are going to be asking for transit rights through Slovenia and then having the Heer personally escort the refugee convoys up to the Italian border.

I can also see the Germans pressuring the Vichy French to cede some territory to Balbian Italy, most likely Tunisia and Nice (Corsica and Savoy might have some actual strategic value and would not be seriously considered). If the Italians take the offer, it distances them from the Allies because of their complicity in dismembering France; if the Italians don't, rejecting a bloodless opportunity to regain historically Italian territory will embarrass Balbo in the eyes of Italian nationalists. Combined with Loki, it would be a one-two punch to the Balbian regime that costs Germany nothing it cares about.

[Geekhis Khan]

GK,

I suppose I can hold judgement on the plan till you develop it further

In terms of me calling them a "semi" friendly neutral. Italy is still right wing, and despite Balbo's personality, more closely aligned politically with Germany than with Britain. If Hitler was going after Russia, large segments of Balbo's government and people would demand that Italy participate. Butting heads over spheres of influence wasn't outside the actual purview of the axis in otl and even Benny was dubious of Italy's people's reaction to German moves on highly catholic states like Poland. Italy's stance is almost a mirror image of Franco in otl, and there where very viable strategic reasons to mess with him...I'm unsure of Hitler's objectives here, Balbo, even aggressive towards everyone is surely a net positive overall for him if he keeps the British concerned about other potential moves; as opposed to actually fighting Italy or drawing them into a civil war

there would be a huge swatch of Hitler's Kamerilla against screwing with Balbo, even if he was MORE hostile than you have displayed him to be. Raeder and Goering would council towards negotiate and keeping things quiet. Ribbentrop would want to display his impressive resources inside Italy to show he could negotiate with them to get Balbo to stand down. Rommel (who Hitler would suredly council before making any move against Italy which could result in war) would tell him what kind of resources it would take which would be both convincing and dissauding; Paulus and Keitel would tell him the same thing (and these where people he WAS willing to listen to in 1940)

it seems you my have slightly written yourself into a box... if Hitler is going to go off the deep end and lose his marbles about Italy now, it would be strange for him to do it BEFORE Italy has turned the balkans into a craphole, when he still has a chance to head it off, negotiate or out and out threaten Italy into not doing it... it would have been more likely for him to see the need to do something about Italy if they invaded before he had a chance to do something about it... although you could always take the track that the Germans do negotiate, Balbo tells them to go fuck themselves, and invades Yugoslavia anway and THEN he flips the hell out

Well, you can certainly lend me your comments when I "execute" the plan. It's admittedly a very weird one and may be pushing the envelope too far. I may have "written myself into a box" as you say and, worst case, may have to ret-con, but maybe not.

So let's all go with it and see where it leads, shall we? ;)

[joea64]

Sounds like a plan to start shipping Jews and other "undesirables" into Italy in massive numbers, with the intent of creating an ugly refugee crisis centered on the part of Italy any invasion of Yugoslavia would be launched from. Presumably the Germans are going to be asking for transit rights through Slovenia and then having the Heer personally escort the refugee convoys up to the Italian border.

I can also see the Germans pressuring the Vichy French to cede some territory to Balbian Italy, most likely Tunisia and Nice (Corsica and Savoy might have some actual strategic value and would not be seriously considered). If the Italians take the offer, it distances them from the Allies because of their complicity in dismembering France; if the Italians don't, rejecting a bloodless opportunity to regain historically Italian territory will embarrass Balbo in the eyes of Italian nationalists. Combined with Loki, it would be a one-two punch to the Balbian regime that costs Germany nothing it cares about.

You know, I think this might just be what's going to happen. Couple an operation to literally flood northern Italy with hordes of Jewish refugees (maybe even dump all of Poland's Jews on the Italians; "If Marshal Balbo loves the Jews so much, we're happy to clean out Poland and ship them to him. More Lebensraum for us!!) with a political operation to try to, if not overthrow Balbo outright, at least create a center of pro-Nazi power in northern Italy in direct opposition to the Rome regime, and Balbo's going to be so bogged down that he won't be able to interfere any further with Berlin's plans. Sneaky...but is it just a little too complicated to work?

[Rakhasa]

Sneaky...but is it just a little too complicated to work?

No, of cours enot. What could possibly go wrong in sending thousands of able bodied young men who hate your guts into the welcoming arms of one of your future enemies?

[jlckansas]

Could we see the Italians broker the armistice between the Germans and French? That might be something Balbo does to curry favor with the Germans and a way for the Germans to put Balbo on the spot by asking him to do it.

[Greenlanterncorps]

Based on that (I know, I know ) it leans very heavily towards OTL Armistice. Unless De Gaulle takes the day somehow, then it looks more and more like the majority of French Generals want out of the war and fear what England will do more than Germany at that point. Few military or government fled the country OTL, showing little stomach to continue the fight. Italian involvement isn't even mentioned, even in passing.

b) would France beleive that Italy would come to their aid ATL? I'm doubtful, but hope floats...like another thing I can think of.

c) what could induce France to fight on? By the time Italy entered the war OTL France was already in full collapse. The Air Force had escaped to North Africa, but the Army was almost entirely routed, the major cities of the north and midlands are occupied. I have little reason to beleive the situation is much different ATL save for minor butterflies.

In my mind the biggest possible effect is North Africa now being a bonafide Safe Haven without the immediate threat of invasion from Libya. The remaining Air Force is already there. The Navy is intact and could escape to Corsica or Algeria or even England.

But will that overcome the inertia in the top levels to avoid "Communist revolution", anarchy, and damage to France by any means necessary? At most I can possibly see full Armistice being a harder sell, with more possibly choosing the late "Reynard plan" to flee and fight, with perhaps a larger, more "official" Free France in North Africa...but how big and who will join?



Unless someone can provide more an clear reason for the Free French Africa idea, I'm leaning heavily towards OTL Armistice situation. Anyone with some counterpoint on this? Anyone think enough people will go for the Reynard plan?


I agree that an armistice similar to what happened is most likely, It's been a while since I read To Lose a Battle, but the French political collapse is remarkably swift.

My point was that with a non-hostile Italy, the military situation itself is not quite as bad, IF the French get a de Gaulle type (circa 1958) to rally the nation. IF they can stage a fighting retreat and keep the army intact. If they can get some air cover. IF they can form a solid defensive line somewhere. IF they can get supplies moved their ahead of the Germans. Then they have access to additional supplies from both Marseilles and Italian ports and maybe from Italy itself. They may not hold for long but they can hurt Germans and damage their army. They may buy time to get some troops to Corsica and North Africa.

It should be noted that since it is 1940, de Gaulle is not "de Gaulle" yet. And the only candidate I can think of is Petain. We know how well THAT turned out.

Regardless, the situation in France is a factor. If there is a "Vichy" regime, then Balboist Italy is bordered by quasi-neutral Vichy Franceand has a somewhat free hand elsewhere. If the French are still fighting with a longer ground war and/or a Luftwaffe air campaign against Corsica, then Balbo has Germans both to the North in Austria and to the West in occupied France. In that case he may not be quite so eager for an adventure in Yugoslavia.

[Death]

The Logical thing for Balbo to do is to back down from invading Yugoslavia but maintain its claim to the region to keep Germany out of it sphere of influnce and strike when Germany is occupied with other things.

And if Germany is not tied up in the Balkens as in OLT in WW2 it will free up a lot of reasoures for other key areas in the German war effort creating some very interesting Butterflys.

[Geekhis Khan]

Could we see the Italians broker the armistice between the Germans and French? That might be something Balbo does to curry favor with the Germans and a way for the Germans to put Balbo on the spot by asking him to do it.

Interesting idea...

I agree that an armistice similar to what happened is most likely, It's been a while since I read To Lose a Battle, but the French political collapse is remarkably swift.

My point was that with a non-hostile Italy, the military situation itself is not quite as bad, IF the French get a de Gaulle type (circa 1958) to rally the nation. IF they can stage a fighting retreat and keep the army intact. If they can get some air cover. IF they can form a solid defensive line somewhere. IF they can get supplies moved their ahead of the Germans. Then they have access to additional supplies from both Marseilles and Italian ports and maybe from Italy itself. They may not hold for long but they can hurt Germans and damage their army. They may buy time to get some troops to Corsica and North Africa.

It should be noted that since it is 1940, de Gaulle is not "de Gaulle" yet. And the only candidate I can think of is Petain. We know how well THAT turned out.

Regardless, the situation in France is a factor. If there is a "Vichy" regime, then Balboist Italy is bordered by quasi-neutral Vichy Franceand has a somewhat free hand elsewhere. If the French are still fighting with a longer ground war and/or a Luftwaffe air campaign against Corsica, then Balbo has Germans both to the North in Austria and to the West in occupied France. In that case he may not be quite so eager for an adventure in Yugoslavia.


Very good points, and I seriously considered such a scenario...mostly just because the OTL collapse was so lamentable and has perpetually stained the French, a culture built on centuries of bravery, war, and conquest, with a false stigma of being cowardly surrender monkeys. :(

But as you mention, there are a lot of "Ifs" that need to be shifet into the "Yes" column to get this in place...and with Petain as the "savior" that's unlikely since he was far more amenable to Nazi occupation than the risk of "Communist revolution".

Yea...as cool as it would be to have France Fighting On, the butterflies just aren't strong enough to pull that one off.

[mailinutile2]

Dear author,
thank you for your wonderful piece.
I sniggered myself silly.
And I sniff a Niawa plan here. :D

[Geekhis Khan]

Dear author,
thank you for your wonderful piece.
I sniggered myself silly.
And I sniff a Niawa plan here. :D

Niawa plan?

[The Sandman]

Perhaps some parts of the French Army could head for Italy and internment rather than surrender?

[mailinutile2]

Niawa plan?
just not to be obviuos. look at the keyboard

[LordKalvan]

What's more explicit than Rattenschwarm? :D

Good TL, Geekhis. :) I'm always reading you even if I don't post.

[Geekhis Khan]

What's more explicit than Rattenschwarm? :D

Good TL, Geekhis. :) I'm always reading you even if I don't post.

Thanks, LK. :)

I've been trying to get the next update in, but been distracted by my nemisis, that accursed RL. :mad:

I wasn't sure what I wanted for Christmas, but my heat pump decided for me when it crapped out two days ago.

Oh well, who needs a new flat panel TV anyway?

[Geekhis Khan]

Okay, folks, terribly sorry for the long delay on what was supposed to be a weekend cliffhanger. IRL has conspired on a thousand levels against me and my idea has gone stale at this point, so hopefully this update won't suck too much. Thanks again for the patience and help.

GK...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The trains arrived in the dead of night. They arrived in Piotrków Trybunalski. They arrived in Tuliszkow. They arrived in Lodz. Armed SS men barked orders, directed traffic. The invasion force force was prepared and sent south.

The trains ran with Prussian efficiency, all other rail transport put on hold for their transit. They streamed through the Bohemian protectorate and into Austria. They passed over the border into Yugoslavia without delay, their passage facilitated by advance elements of the SS bearing paperwork stamped by authorities on both sides of the border. Similar paperwork was working its way slowly through the Italian Fascist bureaucracy.

Standing in the cabin of the lead locomotive a wild-eyed junior SS officer smiled a twisted grin as they rolled through the rugged passes. Of the SS officers dispatched to direct these trains only he was cued into the whole of the plan, and he kept a cyanide capsule on hand in the event of capture. His army was right on time, preped and ready for the invasion. Fifty cars to a train, a hundred people to a car, five thousand people crammed into conditions unfit for cattle. Ten trains. Fifty thousand people, hungry, tired, sick. It was but a dry run for the terror to come in later years.

Arrival was to be mere hours after Italian forces has crossed the Istrian frontier, once war was comitted, but hopefully to arrive in Ljubiljana in advance of the Italian forces, ideally to penitrate as far as possible towards the Adriatic. As expected the German forces ran on time to the minute. The Italian forces, however, were less efficient. The trains blew through the streets of Ljubiljana where the citizens hardly paid them a moment's notice as they went about their daily business. Perhaps the scar-crossed Untersturmführer took note of how unpertubed the civilians were. Perhaps only when his train reached the border near Trieste did it sink in that the Italian invasion had yet to commence.

The German trains continued with their orders even in the face of unexpected tranquility (the rank-and-file had been warned of possible sectarian stife). They followed orders to the letter, halting their locomotives exactly where ordered, some undoubtedly noticing that their trains blocked road crossings or highland passes. When the call came they released their "army", which flocked out into the surrounding lands, armed shepherds keeping them in an unsteady group in front of their cars. Exhausted, stiff, weak, and sick, few had the energy to contemplate making a run for the nearby hills, particularly when freedom was supposedly waiting just over the next hills.

Untersturmführer Skozeny carried paperwork to a confused Italian border guard, a little in shock himself more than likely. The Italian denied any knowledge of the incomming trains, not that this surprised Skorzeny (the transit request paperwork was estimated to take at least another week). Other SS officers on other trains bound for Fiume or Goriza encountered similar confusion from the border guards, though these officers lacked Skorzeny's knowledge of the master plan. Cursing Italian inefficiency, they settled in for a long wait, nervous, perhaps, at the milling, sick crowds of confused army of women, children, and old men, their only uniform adornment a yellow six-pointed star.

When initial Italian reconaissance planes surveyed the border in advance of the recently mobilized Army of the Po [1] they saw a tangled mess of trains, cars, ox carts, and large, milling groups of people. Every road and railroad, every crossroads and pass from Tolmin to Fiume was blocked and impassable. Marshal Cavallero, confused and lacking confidence at the invasion plans, called a temporary halt to the invasion plans until a better assessment of the strategic situation could be made.

Meanwhile, the story goes, the Italian border guard made a call to his headquarters, relaying but a single sentance: "Tell Marshal Balbo his Jews are here."

From "Hitler's Jewish Army, the Amazing Story of Operation Loki", published in World War Two Journal, Fall 1968 by Dr. Shlomo Geltenbaum, Professor Emeritus, University of Gondor.


************************************************

Note a piè di pagina:

1 - The author here is overstating the imminence of the invasion for dramatic purposes, though by this point artillery was staged for night transit towards positions on the border and armored forces were in position for "quick" deployment to the front. Due to a variety of organizational and bureaucratic delays, they were a full week and a half behind the Commando Supremo mobilization schedules. More on Italian plans and delays in a future update.

[Germaniac]

Great update... was looking forward to war but that is a good substitute.

[BlairWitch749]

- snip -


Its an interesting plan; although I dare to say I'm confused about what the Germans are hoping to achieve with this....

It feels a bit written out of order; Hitler wouldn't approve something like this which is a defacto act of war

If they negotiated with Balbo (I assume Goering would be dispatched with a bag of bribes and threats) to try to talk him out of it; and they failed Hitler only has 3 choices

1. Let the Italians invade and stay neutral in the matter
2. Declare war on Italy and send field forces through the alps and into Yugoslavia to repel the invasion
3. Sweeten the pot and or offer to help Balbo in the invasion

This operation Loki is too subtle for Nazi's; if the invasion of Yugoslavia pissed Hitler off enough that he felt he had to intervene to stop it; he would send in his field army and air force; not give away his intentions; or block roads and lines that would be useful for panzer divisions to drive on Venice

If you're doing this in conjuction with the Germans supporting efforts by the hardcore fascists to unseat Balbo; its still too subtle for them... Hitler wasn't one to play games like this; if he is the protector of Yugoslavia's territorial integretity (not that Yugoslavia would really want that either) then German field divisions will be in the country making sure the Italians stay the hell out

May I humbly suggest at least inserting some kind of prequel chapter to this (would happily draft a guest chapter or consult) at least?

;)

[Geekhis Khan]

Its an interesting plan; although I dare to say I'm confused about what the Germans are hoping to achieve with this....

It feels a bit written out of order; Hitler wouldn't approve something like this which is a defacto act of war

If they negotiated with Balbo (I assume Goering would be dispatched with a bag of bribes and threats) to try to talk him out of it; and they failed Hitler only has 3 choices

1. Let the Italians invade and stay neutral in the matter
2. Declare war on Italy and send field forces through the alps and into Yugoslavia to repel the invasion
3. Sweeten the pot and or offer to help Balbo in the invasion

This operation Loki is too subtle for Nazi's; if the invasion of Yugoslavia pissed Hitler off enough that he felt he had to intervene to stop it; he would send in his field army and air force; not give away his intentions; or block roads and lines that would be useful for panzer divisions to drive on Venice

If you're doing this in conjuction with the Germans supporting efforts by the hardcore fascists to unseat Balbo; its still too subtle for them... Hitler wasn't one to play games like this; if he is the protector of Yugoslavia's territorial integretity (not that Yugoslavia would really want that either) then German field divisions will be in the country making sure the Italians stay the hell out

May I humbly suggest at least inserting some kind of prequel chapter to this (would happily draft a guest chapter or consult) at least?

;)

Go ahead and PM me something. I'll look it over and see what your ideas are. Thanks for the input, as always. :)

[CCA]

What a twist! Definitely looking forward to more!

[joea64]

Congratulations on your Turtledove nomination. Hurry and update soon - I want to know how the Marshal intends to deal with this curveball Hitler has thrown at him!

[Geekhis Khan]

Congratulations on your Turtledove nomination. Hurry and update soon - I want to know how the Marshal intends to deal with this curveball Hitler has thrown at him!

Thanks joea64, and thanks all for the nom. I'm humbled as always. :o

I have an update in the pipe, but time has been hitting me. A lot of work issues including a surprise trip, so I'll try to get it out as soon as possible.

[mailinutile2]

Bwhahaha!!!
I was right! :D
great update, Geekis

[Agatho]

I have an update in the pipe, but time has been hitting me. A lot of work issues including a surprise trip, so I'll try to get it out as soon as possible.

The sooner the better Geekhis, I wouldn't want to interfere with your personal life, but I must know how the war goes.

[Geekhis Khan]

The sooner the better Geekhis, I wouldn't want to interfere with your personal life, but I must know how the war goes.

Hopefully next week...work's hit me hard this month and with a toddler at home fat chance of getting anything done there.

[Shurik]

Bugger! I saw a post by you, and got all warm and tingly down there in anticipation! :mad:

Awe well, I hear you on the toddler business. As has been voiced time and again: Superb work! :)

[Swiftbread]

Ok, I just read the entire thing and i'm amazed. This is such a detailed read. Its awsome! Anyways I was wondering, just how much influence does Italy have in Albania right now anyways?

[mailinutile2]

Ok, I just read the entire thing and i'm amazed. This is such a detailed read. Its awsome! Anyways I was wondering, just how much influence does Italy have in Albania right now anyways?

From the 1919 and onwards, Albania has always been a de-facto colony.
It has its own government and its own king, but all the economy was in italian hands and the government was ready to do (almost) whatever Rome asked.
OTL invasion in 1938 was one of the most absurd things ever conceived.
Like shoveling a tunnel to break in your own house.

[Geekhis Khan]

Thanks again, all for the support during the 2011 Turtledove awards. I'd like to extend a hand to BlairWitch749, both for his excellent Manstein TL series and for his help on the Nazi war machine for this TL. In fact, the following update comes courtesy of BW's input and is authored by him. Enjoy, and my apoligies for the long delay (workload's been rough lately).

GK...


----------------------------------------------------------------------


The looming Italian invasion of Yugoslavia presented a host of political and strategic problems to Adolf Hitler. Whilst military options where drawn up and considered, there where other angles that Hitler was compelled to explore as well (even if he found them distasteful), namely to open diplomatic negotiations with Marshal Balbo. While curbing Italy's bad behavior or securing buffer territory around Romania were potentially attractive, nothing felt better than the status quo; especially because any entanglements in southern Europe could draw Stalin's interest or unhinge the timetables for Barbarossa.

It was to this end that Hitler sent his deputy Hermann Goering and the Prince of Hesse, both of whom maintained cordial relations with important members of the fascist party and the Italian government despite the spat of entanglements with Italy over the last several years. Goering had handled similar delicate/dangerous negotiations with Austria two years before and was invested with Hitler's full confidence to bribe or threaten Italy into not going ahead with their "foolishness".

Goering was able to secure an audience with Balbo with minimum fuss or delay, which seemed to bode well. Seeing this as a positive sign and using the prince of Hesse as interpreter Goering offered generous terms:

In return for Italy agreeing to not undertake any aggressive measures in the balkans for the next 3 years; Germany is willing to offer 1 million tonnes of coal per month by rail at steeply discounted prices; as well similar discounts will be applied to all German weapon's licenses of which Italy may select to purchase.

Balbo mulled the offer over, but decided that he not only couldn't trust the nazi's to make good on their deal, but that his domestic political situation wouldn't be quelled by more coal or weapons; he had to bring home a victory to quiet his critics. He thanked Goering for his offer, and told him he would consider it.

This was not what the Reichsmarshal wanted to hear; he had to come home with an agreement or he would lose face in the kamerilla. The smile fell from his face and a much more serious demeanor went over Goering:

Germany is being quite generous in this situation marshal. The fuhrer is quite committed that there should be no war in the balkans. I would sincerely hate to have to send 500 bombers over Milan and Turin due to your hard headedness.

Goering let that comment hang in the air like a 1000 pound weight; Balbo was shocked and offended by the implied threat. Perhaps in anger, fear or some combination of the two Balbo ordered Goering to be seen out of the room... after some hours, he decided the Germans where bluffing and wouldn't lift a finger for the Yugoslavs and would likely confine themselves to propaganda about the situation. He decided to allow the preperations to continue, although he would beef up his frontier fortifications in the alps just in case.

After being shown out Goering was furious, and the long ride back to Berlin did not allow him to calm down and appreciate the situation objectively. His report to the fuhrer that Balbo was hell bent on invading Yugoslavia regardless of Germany's wishes did much to sway Hitler's mind towards ending the turmoil with Italy once and for all. Hitler summoned his foremost experts for consultation on a potential fight with Italy, namely Ferdinand Schoerner, Erwin Rommel, Frederich Paulus and Erhard Raus. They all told him the same thing, namely that in conjuction with the Yugoslav army they could probably break through towards Venice and compel the Italians to retreat at least back to the Po river. Thereafter things would be extremely problematic: the terrain was terrible, there wasn't a tremendous amount of campaigning time left before winter, and the potential short front would offset all German advantages in airpower and mobility. In short, a pitched battle for Italy was a fight best avoided if at all possible.

It was against this backdrop that Hitler, despite his severe distaste for solving problems in a non military way, decided to allow the foreign minister Jochim von Ribbentrop to open secret back channel communications with Farinacci and the estranged Second Wave fascists. Leveraging off of existant clandestine SS efforts in Italy (Operation Thor), von Ribbentrop was able to increase the funding and intelligence exchange. The move also gave clandestine support for Farinnacci's bloc. It was agreed that Germany would support the new government in every way possible in return for them recognizing German interest in the Balkans and included an option for the reestablishment of the axis. There was a snag though: the plotters required critical days before they could move on Balbo and the invasion appeared imminent.

This is where Operation Loki was born. [...] The Yugoslav government was already suspicious of Italian intentions and Hitler was able to get their government to concede to German help in preventing the invasion. The Yugoslav's agreed to let the SS trains roll in to block the main arteries of communication between themselves and Italy on the promise that none of the exiled Jews were to remain in Yugoslavia. But Hitler didn't take any chances: the three German mountain infantry divisions (Paulus) and the 2nd infantry (Weichs) army were alerted and dispatched to Austria in the event the plan failed and it became necessary to launch an outright military invasion of Italy. The 6th infantry army (Reichenau) and two full strength panzer corps (Kleist and Hoth) where held in readiness to immediately roll into western Yugoslavia to backstop local forces and then launch a counter invasion in the event the operation failed.

From Behind the Swastika; Inside Adolph Hitler's Government, by Dr. Blair Welch, University of New York, 2011

[joea64]

And we're underway again! So this is the backstory to Operations Loki and Thor. I'm a bit surprised that Goering fell so flat with Balbo; since the men were at least friendly acquaintances, and Goering could be quite charming when he put his mind to it, I'd have thought that he'd have worked harder to have tried to talk Balbo into accepting the German offer instead of proceeding almost straight to threats of bombing.

Anyway, now I have a clear picture of how the Nazis have set things up: Operation Loki first, to throw the Italian staging areas into chaos by dumping hundreds of thousands of Jews on the region, and also get the Italian government tied up in aiding the refugees and moving them out of the way, and then while that's going on, Farinacci strikes, aided by SS operatives working under Operation Thor. And if that fails - and judging from all the foreshadowing, it will fail; it's an ingenious plan, but it's just too complex and dependent on two complicated operations going just right - the Panzers are waiting in Austria and Yugoslavia to settle Balbo's hash once and for all.

[BlairWitch749]

And we're underway again! So this is the backstory to Operations Loki and Thor. I'm a bit surprised that Goering fell so flat with Balbo; since the men were at least friendly acquaintances, and Goering could be quite charming when he put his mind to it, I'd have thought that he'd have worked harder to have tried to talk Balbo into accepting the German offer instead of proceeding almost straight to threats of bombing.

Anyway, now I have a clear picture of how the Nazis have set things up: Operation Loki first, to throw the Italian staging areas into chaos by dumping hundreds of thousands of Jews on the region, and also get the Italian government tied up in aiding the refugees and moving them out of the way, and then while that's going on, Farinacci strikes, aided by SS operatives working under Operation Thor. And if that fails - and judging from all the foreshadowing, it will fail; it's an ingenious plan, but it's just too complex and dependent on two complicated operations going just right - the Panzers are waiting in Austria and Yugoslavia to settle Balbo's hash once and for all.


I can't speak to GK's overall plan (thank you for the shoutout and the opportunity to provide a guest chapter in your excellent work) but I can tell you why I portrayed Goering in that manner

HG served two masters, Hitler and himself. Being friendly with Benny the moose, and the Italian political/military establishment served both masters (Because Hitler deeply cared for Benny, and held him in the highest personal regard AND because elbow rubbing with powerful elites fit HG's style)

In GK's TL, relations between Germany and Italy are more strained, and HG's first master is pissed off at Balbo; so its quite plausible for his tone to get a bit... lets say off the leash... following a failure in the BOB, stomping Italy would not only reboost his propaganda image in Germany overall; but would revindicate himself to Hitler... a potential outcome that would not be easily discounted

[Swiftbread]

Cool, looks like Italy's going to be shoved into the Allies camp while Yugoslavia will be Germany's Italy. So how much effort can Germany spare while getting ready for Russia? Won't a distraction in Italy harm future plans?

[Swiftbread]

Hmm, I don't like this TL getting buried. I guess this a bump then.

[joea64]

Hmm, I don't like this TL getting buried. I guess this a bump then.

Geekhis mentioned in another thread that his current job is giving him a lot less time to write than he used to have. I'm sure he'll get back on this as soon as he finds the time, even if he has to sit up at 2 am in the morning. ;):D

[Geekhis Khan]

Don't worry, I'm working on things, folks. RL is rough right now and NyQuil is sapping my creative energies (stupid head cold). Sorry for the delays (and sorry to those excited subscribers that just excitedly clicked on this bit of necromancy :(). I'll try to update soon.

[Kaiser James I]

Not a problem. We eagerly await.

[Death]

Don't worry, I'm working on things, folks. RL is rough right now and NyQuil is sapping my creative energies (stupid head cold). Sorry for the delays (and sorry to those excited subscribers that just excitedly clicked on this bit of necromancy :(). I'll try to update soon.

No worries Geekhis its probable just the cliff hanger that got every one in a bit crazy.

Subbed to the TL as well:rolleyes:

[Germaniac]

Any hope of an update?

[Geekhis Khan]

I'm really sorry, folks. :( My new job actually expects me to work for a living. And frankly, this TL requires research...lots of it. Since starting the new job last August I have not had the time I used to for reading up on things. And I really don't want to start half-assing it and just making crap up. This TL began on a principle of historical plausibility, and I don't want that to suffer because my time is so limited. So I want to asure you I haven't abandoned it, but I really need to find the time to do it right.

I'll work to make the time to catch up and make things happen. My appologies for the major delays. :(

[lothaw]

I'm really sorry, folks. :( My new job actually expects me to work for a living. And frankly, this TL requires research...lots of it. Since starting the new job last August I have not had the time I used to for reading up on things. And I really don't want to start half-assing it and just making crap up. This TL began on a principle of historical plausibility, and I don't want that to suffer because my time is so limited. So I want to asure you I haven't abandoned it, but I really need to find the time to do it right.

I'll work to make the time to catch up and make things happen. My appologies for the major delays. :(

Hey life happens. Do what you need to. AH.com isn't going anywhere. Look foward to this going on, but take care of you and your own first. :)

[Pellegrino Shots]

Hello?

Is anybody here?

<crickets chirp>

[Pellegrino Shots]

OK Geekhis, I’ve been patient for the last eight months. But you got to pick up the pace now or I’m going to finish this timeline myself. And trust me, nobody wants that. If I’m forced to step in, this timeline will see the introduction of an alien crustal skull, Nazi cyborgs, ninja assassins, and the resurrection of Mussolini by a mad scientist named Jar Jar Binks.
And that will be the end of your Turtledove when that happens!
:eek:

Just give us a teaser, you know you left us with a cliffhanger!

:cool:

[DuQuense]

If I’m forced to step in, this timeline will see the introduction of an alien crustal skull, Nazi cyborgs, ninja assassins, and the resurrection of Mussolini by a mad scientist named Jar Jar Binks.For the Gods sake Geekhis stop him.

[Brainbin]

Well, since someone else has taken this timeline out of mothballs and therefore will be heaped with the requisite blame and scorn for it, I'd like to take this opportunity to subscribe. I'm really sorry that I didn't do so during my lurker days - this TL is fantastic; one of the very best on this site, in my humble opinion. I know that RL can be a harsh mistress, but I do hope that someday, somehow, you'll be back :)

[Bavarian Raven]

this is a great TL, i hope it survives:)

[Porsenna]

OK Geekhis, I’ve been patient for the last eight months. But you got to pick up the pace now or I’m going to finish this timeline myself. And trust me, nobody wants that. If I’m forced to step in, this timeline will see the introduction of an alien crustal skull, Nazi cyborgs, ninja assassins, and the resurrection of Mussolini by a mad scientist named Jar Jar Binks.
And that will be the end of your Turtledove when that happens!
:eek:

Just give us a teaser, you know you left us with a cliffhanger!

:cool:

By all means do go ahead! It won't be realistic, but it will be fun!

[wolf_brother]

GK's work is blocking AH.com, and between that and his family life he doesn't have much time for alt hist anymore :(

It would probably be for the best to let this thread die, and when GK finally catches a break he'll revive it himself.