The Assassination of Jimmy Carter, October 2nd 1980

[Faeelin]

Okay, most people are familiar with how John Hinckle tried to kill Reagan in order to get Jodie Foster to fall in love with him. less well known is how he tried to off Carter as well. And so, on that fateful October day, a shot rings out in Dayton, leaving the nation in disarray shortly before the election.

What now?

[OperationGreen]

Carter is seen by some as one of the worst presidents in recent times. (I believe Carter has been given a bad deal.) So this obviously if we consider what happened to opinions on JFK after his death this should be reversed with the democrats and President Mondale winning the 1980 election? What would be Carters legacy?

This is a very interesting topic so what would happen to the energy measures put in place by President Carter? Would America remain committed to becoming more self sufficient in energy production? Or would because of a change in global situations follow the RL path under Reagan?

I personally believe this will be the biggest boost to the peace process possible. If one looks at Jimmy Carter he remains to this day committed to a two state solution and peace in the Middle East. His death would be after the Camp David Accords and I can imagine a lot more pressure to be placed on his successors to find a permanent solution to the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Also this could be another POD for Carters death. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,920351,00.html

[OperationGreen]

Bumpy. Carters death must have some interesting consequences.

[Derek Jackson]

I think that the shock shifts electoral feelings considerably. I suspect that Mondale gets to be President and stay that way - possibly throught the 80s

[V-J]

What is the actual procedure if a candidate dies so late in the day in the run up to a presidential election? I think the respective national committees have the power to revoke and confirm candidacies of their two nominees, but what happens to ballots, etc?

[Faeelin]

What is the actual procedure if a candidate dies so late in the day in the run up to a presidential election? I think the respective national committees have the power to revoke and confirm candidacies of their two nominees, but what happens to ballots, etc?

I have no idea, and this is partly why I'm asking.

[Paul V McNutt]

Mondale (I am confident the DNC would pick him as the candidate)would benefit from sympathy but there is still the bad economy and the hostage crisis. So I suspect he is president for three months, two weeks and three days. The second shortest time in office.

[MasterCye]

Carter is seen by some as one of the worst presidents in recent times. (I believe Carter has been given a bad deal.) So this obviously if we consider what happened to opinions on JFK after his death this should be reversed with the democrats and President Mondale winning the 1980 election?

Before JFK was killed wasn't he mostly liked by the public? He at least was seen as reasonably competent as president(not sure on this it was before my time).

Carter on the other hand wasn't seen in very good light at all, He was at the wheel during a significant economic downturn and a huge black eye to the American image in the rest of the world.

So we have a guy killed who was seen as a good/average president now seen just south of sainthood, which gives his VP a landslide in the next general election. Now we have a guy who was then considered one of the worst presidents in modern times and his death is supposed to overcome a landslide defeat(489 - 49 EC, 50.7% - 41.0% popular vote) in OTL?

I'm sorry but I'm not buying it, It might have made the election closer but I still think Reagan wins it.

[V-J]

Mondale (I am confident the DNC would pick him as the candidate)would benefit from sympathy but there is still the bad economy and the hostage crisis.

The 1980 Presidential election was a much closer thing than we remember it as, though. There were points when Carter was ahead in the polls. It's perfectly possible to my mind, in fact I'd on balance say it's probably more likely than not, that Mondale would be able to win in these circumstances.

Carter's death, aside from the obvious huge public sympathy it would create, would have substantially blunted most of Reagan's arguments. You can't run against a martyr, and you can't run against someone who's only been in office for a month - Mondale would be trumping Reagan's campaigning style by running a positive campaign drawing on public sympathy over Carter's murder.

I don't think it would be Johnsonesque, but it's Mondale's to lose, really.

[glenn67]

The only thing that changes is that Reagan wins Georgia in 1980 and defeats Mondale in a 45 state landslide.

Mondale does not run for President in 1984 and the Democrats nominate Gary Hart for President and John Glenn for Vice President.

In his acceptance speech, Hart does not reveal that he will raise taxes. Reagan is still re-elected in 1984. Hart wins only his home state of Colorado and DC.

[Admiral Matt]

The only thing that changes is that Reagan wins Georgia in 1980 and defeats Mondale in a 45 state landslide.

Mondale does not run for President in 1984 and the Democrats nominate Gary Hart for President and John Glenn for Vice President.

In his acceptance speech, Hart does not reveal that he will raise taxes. Reagan is still re-elected in 1984. Hart wins only his home state of Colorado and DC.

Thanks. We were short someone throwing out their opinion without anything to back it up.

[GeneralHouston]

The only thing that changes is that Reagan wins Georgia in 1980 and defeats Mondale in a 45 state landslide.

Mondale does not run for President in 1984 and the Democrats nominate Gary Hart for President and John Glenn for Vice President.

In his acceptance speech, Hart does not reveal that he will raise taxes. Reagan is still re-elected in 1984. Hart wins only his home state of Colorado and DC.

Hart would do much better than Mondale, even against St. Ronald the Great.

As for 1980, Mondale would be hurt by the lack of time to campaign and the poor economy. The GOP would lose the hostage crisis card. Mondale would benefit tremendously from sympathy votes, but I don't think it would be enough.

Reagan, however, would win a closer race and would not have the feeling of a mandate to drastically change (read: rape lower-income Americans of any chance) the structure of our federal government and our tax system. 1984 would be a much different and much closer election.

[nbcman]

Mondale may have a chance if Anderson drops out of the race and it is only a race between him and Reagan. But unless Reagan misspeaks during the final month, I think he will still win even with no Carter and no Anderson.

[Grimm Reaper]

I'm trying to figure out where this fantasy of Carter being a supporter of energy independence ever came from. He talked a good talk but judged on his actions he was an unmitigated disaster.

You can't utterly block the development of nuclear power, given the technology of the time, and expect any positive developments.

One key question is whether Mondale will keep the secret and probably illegal agreements Carter made with certain Arab leaders, which I doubt, but if he does then Camp David dies around late 1982.

[President Sam Houston]

Carter was so bad and unpopular that Ted Kennedy challenged him for the Democratic nomination. A sitting president running for reelection and he has to fight off a challenge in his own party. Not much to top that for unpopularity.

So if Carter is assassinated even one month before the general election, I don't think it would have been too unlikely that Kennedy renews his challenge for the Dem nomination; after all he was certainly more well known to the population at large than a sitting VP with very little power or charisma.

So there is an internal battle within the Dem hierarchy, and Kennedy comes out of it with the nomination. Mondale is a complete lame duck almost from the moment he is sworn in. He dares not do much to upset the status quo, and so the hostage crisis continues in the same manner as in OTL. Kennedy, despite a month long campaign at full speed where his speeches are moderate compared to his more liberal senate record, gets rolled in the general election by Reagan. Kennedy returns to the Senate but would probably challenge Mondale in 84 for the Dem nomination, only to lose.

[Lord Grattan]

Thanks. We were short someone throwing out their opinion without anything to back it up.

What gives?
Glen67 gave a plausable result for the 1980 Reagan-Mondale (the probable DNC selection after Carter's death) race and offers a realistic guess as to what happens in '84. Now if she had posted something silly like, "Mondale turns Carter's state funeral into a campaign rally and thus blows the election", then you'd be justified; but he didn't.

[Mark E.]

What is the actual procedure if a candidate dies so late in the day in the run up to a presidential election? I think the respective national committees have the power to revoke and confirm candidacies of their two nominees, but what happens to ballots, etc?

In almost all cases, it is too late to change the ballots. In Carnahan-Ashcroft election in 1980, Missouri voters were instructed that a vote for the Late Mel Carnahan was a vote for Jean Carnahan, and she was elected.

The president is chosen by electors who can make decisions on their own. The party would most likely step forward with a unified approach and name a candidate. The electors might agree not to fill the ballot and treat a vote for Carter as a vote for Mondale, leaving the VP slot open to be filled by the Succession Act after Mondale takes office.

[Lord Grattan]

In almost all cases, it is too late to change the ballots. In Carnahan-Ashcroft election in 1980, Missouri voters were instructed that a vote for the Late Mel Carnahan was a vote for Jean Carnahan, and she was elected.

The president is chosen by electors who can make decisions on their own. The party would most likely step forward with a unified approach and name a candidate. The electors might agree not to fill the ballot and treat a vote for Carter as a vote for Mondale, leaving the VP slot open to be filled by the Succession Act after Mondale takes office.

I imagine that the electors in states won by the Democratic replacement nominee, being good and loyal democrats, would vote for the Democrat. I don't know for sure, but I imagine that Mondale (or whoever the DNC chose to fill Carter's place on the ticket) would chose a VP in consultation w/the DNC and have that choice affirmed by the DNC a week or so after Carter's funeral.

[V-J]

Glen67 gave a plausable result for the 1980 Reagan-Mondale (the probable DNC selection after Carter's death) race

Plausible? Uh? So you think that the assasination of a sitting President a month before the election would have absolutely no effect on the election, other than to shift Georgia into the Reagan collumn, which is what was suggested?

Like Admiral Matt, I'm having trouble taking a lot of the replies here seriously. Even with a Reagan win, which I don't discount, it's patently not going to be the same race it was in OTL. If Reagan does win (and as I said above, I believe the momentum would be clearly with Mondale) then it's going to be a lot closer than OTL.

Christ, even Carter himself had the thing at pretty much a draw in opinion polls in OTL until the second debate a week before the election, when Reagan stomped him and tore ahead.

In almost all cases, it is too late to change the ballots. In Carnahan-Ashcroft election in 1980, Missouri voters were instructed that a vote for the Late Mel Carnahan was a vote for Jean Carnahan, and she was elected.

The president is chosen by electors who can make decisions on their own. The party would most likely step forward with a unified approach and name a candidate. The electors might agree not to fill the ballot and treat a vote for Carter as a vote for Mondale, leaving the VP slot open to be filled by the Succession Act after Mondale takes office.

Interesting stuff. So the voters would basically be electing Democratic electors, nominally pledged to Carter, who would then simply go on to vote for Mondale when the electoral college met?

[Historico]

What effect might this have on the Anderson Campaign, I think the problem is the POD is to late to have any dramatic effect, I had a thread a few days ago that proposed Jimmy decides that he wont seek reelection in 1980, a year early during the "malaise" speech. Could Anderson do better in this scenario as he can be seen as a true centrist candidate?

[Mark E.]

Interesting stuff. So the voters would basically be electing Democratic electors, nominally pledged to Carter, who would then simply go on to vote for Mondale when the electoral college met?

On Oct. 16, 2000, Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan, candidate for the US Senate, died in a plane crash. There was no time to change names on the ballot before the November election. Lt. Governor Roger Wilson became governor and promised to use his power to appoint Jeanne Carnahan (Mel's wife) to the seat if the voters elected the Late Mel Carnahan. By voting for a dead man, the voters were electing a vacant seat. The vacancy won over Assembly-Of-God Republican John Ashcroft, and Jeanne Carnahan was seated.

On the national level, if the ticket was half empty, the voters would still be electing electors of their respective parties. Different states have different levels of binding or obligation for their electors. In any case, it is up to the electors alone (subject to state law and party influence) to choose the president if the intended candidate is deceased.

[Mikey]

How late in the campaign season was have running in serious contention? If it seemed plausible that Carter could hvae pulled it off, I think it's feasible that a huge Carter Assassination Conspiracy Theory movement would have existed.

Especially if Reagan goes on to win and his presidency follows the same general path, with Oliver North and Alexander Haig popping up to do their thing - and there are at least some vague links between the Hinckley family and the Bushes (John's father and brother were big donors).

[Electric Monk]

How late in the campaign season was [Carter] have running in serious contention? If it seemed plausible that Carter could hvae pulled it off.

Until the final debate, one week before the general election.

So there is an internal battle within the Dem hierarchy, and Kennedy comes out of it with the nomination. Mondale is a complete lame duck almost from the moment he is sworn in. He dares not do much to upset the status quo, and so the hostage crisis continues in the same manner as in OTL. Kennedy, despite a month long campaign at full speed where his speeches are moderate compared to his more liberal senate record, gets rolled in the general election by Reagan.

Nope. The Anybody-But-Carter movement were so desperate to find somebody not named Carter or Kennedy that they asked Mondale—the sitting vice-president—to be a candidate. There's no way Kennedy gets the nomination, since a major portion of his delegates were anti-Carter not pro-Kennedy.



As to what happens, Mondale gets the nomination and picks somebody (Southern, conservative) to be VP.

Mondale isn't the world's best campaigner, but he's not going to let himself get ripped in the debates like Carter did (yes, yes, 1984. Reagan had one good line in all of the debates and aside from that his performance was so bad people were concerned he was senile).

Maybe Reagan gets his "are you better off" bit or not, but it has a lot less impact against Mondale than Carter.

As already noted the election was close to even until the last week. Carter's campaign utterly failed at trying to portray Reagan as dangerous and that was probably the key plank of their entire campaign. Mondale has freedom to change that.

There were 15 states within 5% and twelve of them were Republican. There were a further 9 states within 10%, one of them Democratic. Swinging them all to the Democratic side gets you 294-244 and a Mondale victory. Given how in flux the campaign was until the last week that's not unreasonable.

That said, I imagine the probability of Reagan is still above 50%… just not that much higher.

[faubert]

The Decision on who would replace Carter would be made by a meeting of the full Democratic National Committee. Most likely they would select Mondale to replace Carter.

There are some factors that are being forgotten. The campaign would be suspended during the time of Carter's funeral. That would be about a week and Mondale's numbers would go up.

Best guess that in Mid October Mondale would have a small lead over Reagan with a couple of weeks to go before the election.

One wild factor is the fate of the Hostages. I can see Iran releasing the hostages in October as an act of sympathy to the United States during its time of mourning for its dead President.

If that happened then Mondale have have an even bigger lead over Reagan.

And if Mondale who was a former member of the Senate can work with Congress on creating a plan to fight the economic problems. Remember Carter did not get along with Congress. If Mondale and the Democratic Congress can work out a plan then going into the election President Mondale would have a success on Foreign Policy and the Economy.

But the real factor will be the Presidential Debate where Reagan would have the advantage like he did in 1984. In the debate Reagan would have to be careful. The Country would still be in mourning for Carter. (The mourning period for a dead President is 30 days) Reagan would have to be careful in how he attacks Mondale and the murdered President Carter.

On Election day itself I would say that Anderson's campaign would of collapsed. He might get 3% of the vote max instead of the nearly 7% he got.

My guess on the final results

Mondale 49&
Reagan 48%
Anderson 3%


I would also give Mondale about 280 Electoral votes. With Reagan winning the South and the West and Mondale getting just enough votes from the Northeast and Midwest to win the election

[Electric Monk]

I would also give Mondale about 280 Electoral votes. With Reagan winning the South and the West and Mondale getting just enough votes from the Northeast and Midwest to win the election

There are 20 states that went for Reagan by less than 10%. A whole bunch are in the South. Mondale is going to need places like Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee unless he can pull off 10+% swings in Texas or California or Ohio.

This site (https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html#1980) might help you.

[Orville_third]

and there are at least some vague links between the Hinckley family and the Bushes (John's father and brother were big donors).
Actually, it's a matter of record that Neil Bush and Scott Hinckley (John's big brother) were scheduled to have dinner the night of the assasination attempt...