Future history: Vesuvius

[mattep74]

I saw a BBC made dramadocumentury about the eruption of Vesuvius in 79AD and there were talks about it happening again soon, same as every other documentury about volcanos in general or Vesuvius only.

So lets say the mountain erupts like it did in 79. Would the people of Neaple and around the bay(around 3,5 milion people) have time to evacuate and would they? The pyroclastic cloud struck over 12hrs after the first eruption in 79 apperantly so that thing wouldnt be a factor for several hrs

SO, can you evacuate 3,5 million people in less than 24hrs? does italy have a naval base that can help evacuate within a close distance. Unlike the roman ships in 79, these can travel against the wind

[carlton_bach]

give that Vesuvius may be the world's most watched volcano, if the eruption happens the same way it did in 79, there will be much more warning than a day or two. Evacuation over sea should be doable without the navy - Naples is a major port and ships can be requisitioned - but would not be necessary if the authorities handled this well and the populace responded responsibly. But who am I kidding...

The government will dither. People will refuse to leave. Real estate brokers will hire counter-experts. And when the whole thing blows, there will be hell to pay. Plus, I don't think Charlton Heston will be available.

[MerryPrankster]

One reason such large numbers died back in 79 AD is that no one knew what a volcano was or what to do. Thus, they hung around waiting for it all to blow over. Bad move.

Now, we don't have that kind of problem.

[Chengar Qordath]

One reason such large numbers died back in 79 AD is that no one knew what a volcano was or what to do. Thus, they hung around waiting for it all to blow over. Bad move.

Now, we don't have that kind of problem.

True, these days it is more an issue of whether such a large population could all be evacuated in time. There will be plenty of advance warning, so it is more an issue of whether the government and populace can be convinced of the need to evacuate in time for the millions of people in danger to get out. If action comes too late a lot of people would probably get killed while stuck in a massive traffic jam that results from millions of people all trying to get away at once.

[Brilliantlight]

True, these days it is more an issue of whether such a large population could all be evacuated in time. There will be plenty of advance warning, so it is more an issue of whether the government and populace can be convinced of the need to evacuate in time for the millions of people in danger to get out. If action comes too late a lot of people would probably get killed while stuck in a massive traffic jam that results from millions of people all trying to get away at once.

I think the vast majority would leave in time as most Italians are not complete morons.

[mattep74]

True, these days it is more an issue of whether such a large population could all be evacuated in time. There will be plenty of advance warning, so it is more an issue of whether the government and populace can be convinced of the need to evacuate in time for the millions of people in danger to get out. If action comes too late a lot of people would probably get killed while stuck in a massive traffic jam that results from millions of people all trying to get away at once.

maybe some will try to leave by foot or bike and thinking that if they live they can buy what they need later

[NapoleonXIV]

12 hrs is far short of enough time to evacuate several million people. However, Vesuvius is a very watched volcano. Still, it depends, the problem is that IIRC Vesuvius is a dangerous type. It tends to erupt explosively, with little warning and puts forth a pyroclastic flow rather than magma. Additionally, its area is among the most populated in the world. Not a good situation all around.

[Nik]

IMHO, there's almost no chance that V could go from 'docile' to 'Plinian' in a couple of hours: the instruments should pick up flank swelling, harmonic tremor in the riser, flank fumaroles etc...

Bad news is it could rumble & grumble for weeks and weeks, raising and lowering the alert level, de-sensitise the locals and THEN take out Naples.

Remember how St Helens area was cleared, but folk drifted back ? Or Pinatubo, which coughed, spluttered and spat until even US airbase commander ordered final evac-- and, midway through that, P blew.

There's another problem: If Seattle was threatened, there could be an attempt to weaken another flank, mitigating the hazard. Icelanders famously used 'dozers & hosed sea-water to re-route lava. IIRC, Italian law prohibits interference with volcano...

[basileus]

IMHO, there's almost no chance that V could go from 'docile' to 'Plinian' in a couple of hours: the instruments should pick up flank swelling, harmonic tremor in the riser, flank fumaroles etc...

Bad news is it could rumble & grumble for weeks and weeks, raising and lowering the alert level, de-sensitise the locals and THEN take out Naples.

Remember how St Helens area was cleared, but folk drifted back ? Or Pinatubo, which coughed, spluttered and spat until even US airbase commander ordered final evac-- and, midway through that, P blew.

There's another problem: If Seattle was threatened, there could be an attempt to weaken another flank, mitigating the hazard. Icelanders famously used 'dozers & hosed sea-water to re-route lava. IIRC, Italian law prohibits interference with volcano...

??? What Italian law? Whn tna erupts in Sicily therre's no problem, if needed, in digging canals to re-route lava flows in abandoned valleys. It has been done with success more than once, at least fsince 1983. Vesuvio is an extremely dangerous volcano, but I think inc ase of danger even Neapolitans would react properly and evacuate in a decent parody of good order.

[Nik]

Sorry, I may have mis-remembered...

Etna is very rarely in-active and, as you say, they divert flows into empty valleys.

I understood that legal squabbles over property damage on Vesuvios' slopes due diversion walls & banks were halted by laws preventing interference: Let the lava flow where it will...

Nik