1848 Revolutions

[lothaw]

Does anyone think it might be possible that the 1848 Revolutions in Europe might have been successful?

Nearly every European power had some sort of a Communist Revolution in this year. Any possibilities any of them could have succeded? If so, what impacts would they have on the future presuming they last?

[Kabraloth]

Nearly every European power had some sort of a Communist Revolution in this year.
Is that a DBWI, or do they really teach you that?

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

Does anyone think it might be possible that the 1848 Revolutions in Europe might have been successful?

Nearly every European power had some sort of a Communist Revolution in this year. Any possibilities any of them could have succeded? If so, what impacts would they have on the future presuming they last?

AhahahahahahahahhaH!!!! Incorrect Incorrect!!!!

They were liberal revolutions, yes, but not communist! They were motivated by nationalism, as Germany wanted to unite, and many Austrian states wanted to be there own nation, as well as the desire for some liberal reforms, like a parliament. The preachings of Karl Marx would not be of any importance until later. He even thought that nothing would ever come of them! (Sorry, but that's a pet peve of mine:rolleyes:)

As for your question, in Germany, they could have more easily succeded, as all the Prussian king had to do was accept the throne when it was offered to him(He refused to take a crown "out of the gutter"). For Austria, however, you may need a bit more. While it was at this point the Austrian Empire became Austria-Hungery, due to internal fracturing, there was still Federal power in the emperor. You will need some way to stop the Austrian armies(and Russian, too) from crushing the rebellions. It's still possible; just make it a more wide-spread, or swifter revoltuion, and maybe find a reason for Russia to be pre-occupied, and you've done it.

[lothaw]

I'll admit as a staunch conservative, too often I so fail to distinguish between the ultra-liberal and communist vantage points.. :o

That said, it was mainly Prussia and Austria I was thinking of. As for your pet peeve, hey. I'll be the first to admit that half my taste in alternate history is half of it is, I learn about our own. It was just a random thought of mine, and no I didn't research anything regarding the question. Just a random event I recalled. :p

As for Austrian Revolution success... just get Russia involved in another border war with the Turks, perhaps?

[Kalan]

First, the revolutions were not communist, but nationalist/liberal.
Secondly the revolution in France did succeed, but the French made the mistake to elect Napoleon as president and 4 years later they lived in an Empire - obviously they didn't learn anything from the last time.
Thirdly the revolution also succeeded in Switzerland and the constitution which is still in act today was written.

For the revolution in Germany to succeed you simply need an other King of Prussia which is either liberal enough to accept the constitution or deceitful enough to accept the constitution at first and then tries to get rid of the liberals as soon as his position as emperor of Germany is secured.

The revolution in Austria is a bit harder, since Russia (which didn't have a revolution on itself) helped them to put the Hungarians and other revolters down. But a succesful german revolution might be enough to solve this problem by attempting a Grossdeutsche Lösung.

[Valdemar II]

I'll admit as a staunch conservative, too often I so fail to distinguish between the ultra-liberal and communist vantage points.. :o

Did you hear that sound? That me beating down a wall with my head. No matter how conservative or American* you are, it doesn't excuse that level of pure ignorance about political movements and history.

That said, it was mainly Prussia and Austria I was thinking of. As for your pet peeve, hey. I'll be the first to admit that half my taste in alternate history is half of it is, I learn about our own. It was just a random thought of mine, and no I didn't research anything regarding the question. Just a random event I recalled. :p

A minimum of research would be nice, at least read a wikipedia page, it would at least have given the knowledge to distinctions between a 19th century middleclass movement and a later workingclass movement.

Liberals in 1848 mean pro-democracy and they were also quite Nationalist. Communist is/were a movement to remove privat ownership and was quite international (at least pre-Russian Revolution)

*Not a insult of Americans, only of the way you use the term "liberals".

[LordKalvan]

For the revolution in Germany to succeed you simply need an other King of Prussia which is either liberal enough to accept the constitution or deceitful enough to accept the constitution at first and then tries to get rid of the liberals as soon as his position as emperor of Germany is secured.
The Frankfurt Parliament is well known to have been the best educated popular assembly in the history of human race :D Obviously all these nice guys (and they mostly were) did not have a full connection with reality. Pity, it was a great opportunity which was totally wasted: a success of the 1848 revolution in Germany and Italy would have certainly had a major impact on what happened over the last 150 years (and I do believe it would have been a positive impact)

The revolution in Austria is a bit harder, since Russia (which didn't have a revolution on itself) helped them to put the Hungarians and other revolters down. But a succesful german revolution might be enough to solve this problem by attempting a Grossdeutsche Lösung.

The revolution in Austria was already successful: the Imperial court had to leave Wien and escape to Linz, what the insurrectionist sent delegtes to the Frankfurt Parliament. The whole A-H empire was unravelling: Bohemia was also agitating, Hungary was on the brink of insurrection, Italy was up in flames. Effectively the empire was saved by coincidences and good luck:

the Prague insurrectionists did not want to exchange a German master for another one: if Frankfurt recognizes that Bohemia is not Germany....
the Ban of Croatia supported the empire, and the Croatian regiments stayed faithful. It was done in hate of Hungarians, obviously, but it worked.
the Hungarian regiments were not called back to Hungary at the right moment by the provisional government: give Kosciutzko [sp??] a bit more backbone and a feeling for timing, and the Hungarians regiments are called back by May 1848. Which means that the Austrian army in Italy is defeated.
the insurrectionists in Milan and Venice failed to produce a true cold-blooded revolutionary leader: Carlo Cattaneo and Daniele Manin were very nice guys, and very well educated. They would have been perfect for the Frankfurt parliament, but were possibly not the best choice to lead a revolution. Mind, a true revolutionary leader might have brought up different problems later on; OTOH, one cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs.

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

I'll admit as a staunch conservative, too often I so fail to distinguish between the ultra-liberal and communist vantage points.. :o

That said, it was mainly Prussia and Austria I was thinking of. As for your pet peeve, hey. I'll be the first to admit that half my taste in alternate history is half of it is, I learn about our own. It was just a random thought of mine, and no I didn't research anything regarding the question. Just a random event I recalled. :p

As for Austrian Revolution success... just get Russia involved in another border war with the Turks, perhaps?

Yes. You could have Russia get into a boarder war with the Turks, while the King of Prussia decides to become the Emperor of Germany, maybe due to increased liberalism and/or quest for power and/or nationalism. Then he puts pressure on the Autrian Empire(I don't know why, maybe b/c they wanted a united Germany under them, and not Prussia) and it collapses. Ta-da! 1848, the year of Revolutions!

[Matthais Corvinus]

Yes. You could have Russia get into a boarder war with the Turks, while the King of Prussia decides to become the Emperor of Germany, maybe due to increased liberalism and/or quest for power and/or nationalism. Then he puts pressure on the Autrian Empire(I don't know why, maybe b/c they wanted a united Germany under them, and not Prussia) and it collapses. Ta-da! 1848, the year of Revolutions!

If the Prussian King accepted the German crown, then he probably could have gotten Austria. If the Prussians try for Austria though, that could provoke a French or Russian, or both, invasion. An invasion by either the French or Russians would probably give the new Second Reich the push it needs to be a fully unitary state, and might provoke enough of a nationalistic reaction in Austria to guarentee its entry into the new German Empire.

[mowque]

One of my favorite history quotes is about the 1848 revolutions.

'Turning Point of history that failed to turn"

[Grey Wolf]

While it was at this point the Austrian Empire became Austria-Hungary, due to internal fracturing

Actually not - from 1848 to 1866 Hungary was divided into military districts and ruled directly from Vienna

Only after losing the Austro-Prussian War did Hungary achieve parity with Austria in the Dual Monarchy

Thus, one major potential POD for 1848 is a successful revolution in Hungary - Kossuth was trying to find a European prince willing to take up the Hungarian crown, as an additional note.

Russia is of course the maverick factor in this - maybe something erupts in Poland again ? Not sure why it didn't in OTL, not beyond Krakow anyway and Krakow was at that point independent

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

[Kalan]

Russia is of course the maverick factor in this - maybe something erupts in Poland again ? Not sure why it didn't in OTL,


Because there already was an uprising in 1830. Russia disliked this and enacted various steps to prevent it from happening again, there was for instance a constant state of emergency from 1833 to 1856.

[General Zod]

As others have pointed out, you need three things for the 1848 revolutions to succeed: a wiser Prussia, a distracted Russia, a bolder Hungary.

-a Prussian King that goes Bismarck and fully understands the long-term best interest of the Junker ruling elite lies in taking the lead of the German unification, not self-harmful reactionary solidarity, which will only make them the victims of Russia, France, or a successful revolution in the long term. So he accepts the Crown, and takes the leadership of a newly unified German Empire. The combination of Prussian might and liberal-nationalistic enthusiasm is overwhelming.

France can't intervene, they are in the throes of their own revolution till the end of 1848 and if they do afterwards the GE shall have solidified and united Greater Germany shall hand over French butts on a plate, not to mention they ought to count on an alliance from united Italy (see below).

-Russia needs to be distracted or paralyzed so that they can't save the Habsburgs. IMO the social texture of the Russian Empire in 1848 is far too backward to envisage an early Russian Revolution, but we can count on some war with Turkey or Britain or better an insurgency from some of subject nationalities of the RE. Poland and to a lesser degree Finland look like good candidates. Let's say both Poland and Finland rise up. ITTL the polish uprising of 1831 is delayed to 1848. Sweden might or might intervene to back the Finnish uprising. If they do, the Russians shall have their hands full on two fronts for at least one year.

-Hungary needs to make an earlier decision to pull its own troops from the Habsburg control. This causes Savoy to crush Radetsky and conquer Lombardy-Venetia, Trent, and Kustenland. A wave of nationalistic enthusiasm for the victory sweeps the other Italian states and the king of Savoy is granted the Crown of united Italy under popular pressure, probably in some form of federal constitution akin to the German one. The Pope may be a problem but he presently lacks any strong backer as the Habsburg are going down the tube and France is in disarray.

-the lack of Hungarian troops and the loss of face over the defeat in Italy means that liberal-national revolution sweeps Vienna and the revolutionaries bring Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, and Slovenia in the German Empire as a member state. The Czech would object but it's nothing that Prussian troops cannot swiftly deal away with. Croatia-Slavonia becomes independence. Different cadets of the Habsburg that looks sufficiently cooperative with the liberal-national cause take the thrones of Austria-Bohemia, Hungary, and Croatia-Slavonia. Galicia breaks away to join the Polish insurrection.

-About the first Schleswig War, here Prussia is in a much more stronger position since it gets the backing of whole Greater Germany and Russia is busy kiling the Poles and the Finns. Only Britain and Sweden (however if they are fighting the Russians they are too busy to help Danemark as well) would back Danemark ITTL, which means Germany shall win the First Schelswig War decisively. UK would still bring its might to bear for some kind of compromise peace, say Holstein is annexed to Germany and Schleswig is either partitioned or set up as an independent dukedom in personal union with the Danish crown.

-Eventually France recovers its internal stability under either a Louis Napoleon or a Cavaignac Presidency.

-Russia shall eventually succeed in crushing the Polish uprising, since Germany shall not lift a finger to aid them (fearing the Posen Poles might get funny ideas). Swedish intervention would greately prlong this new Northern War, however IMO Russia would eventually win if Germany doesn't help Sweden, which they won't because of the Schleswig issue, besides they are too busy consolidating the Empire. However the silver lining here is that a Norwegian-Swedish committment here would most likely butterfly the separation of Norwegia away and lay the groundwork for Scandinavian-Nordic unification in the next decade or two.

-Britain in all likelihood shall keep itself outside the whole continental mess, only applying mediation in the Schelswig-Holstein question.

Therefore, TTL sees by 1849-50 the emergence of a strong proto-CP national-liberal revolutionary block, composed by Greater Germany, Italy, and Hungary, facing a Russia victorious in Poland and Finland and a Napoleonic France. Neither France nor Russia alone are strong enough to reverse the outcome of the revolution alone, if they try they shall get their own heads on a plate. France is the swing element here, its own geopolitical interests and political ties with the Papacy would urge it to try and reverse the German and Italian unifications by force. However, an alliance with archconservative Russia is politically quite difficult for Napoleonic France, which at least nominally backs national rights.

If the French-Russian alliance does not materialize, Europe settles in the Belle Epoque status quo two decades in advance: there might be a proto-1870 war between France and the German-Italian alliance, which France shall lose badly, as well as a limited Second Schelswig War between Germany and Danemark, to gain Schelswig, and a lot of Balkan Wars further down the line as the Ottoman Empire spirals into decay and Germany, Hungary, Italy, Britain, and Russia fight by proxy to divide its spoils. The Crimean War is probably butterflied away. Eventually, however, you are going to have a Great European War as France and Russia close ranks and clash with the CP. If the odd alliance between Nappy III and the Czar materializes early, you get a proto-WWI in the 1850s.

However, TTL promises a somewhat brighter outcome for Europe as such a Great War would most likely see the victory of the liberal CP block (which Scandinavia is eventually going to be reconciled with) and the destruction of the reactionary Russian Empire.

[Faeelin]

What was the reaction of France to the Frankfurt Parliament, anyway?

[V-J]

I'll admit as a staunch conservative, too often I so fail to distinguish between the ultra-liberal and communist vantage points.. :o

19th century European Liberal Nationalism is an awful lot different to what you call Liberalism today, you know.

[General Zod]

What was the reaction of France to the Frankfurt Parliament, anyway?

The democratic urban radicals were in sympathy, as they were much enamored with the idea of a liberal-national brotherhood of European peoples, and helping downtrodden subject nationalities of reactionary empires to gain their freedom. The rural catholic-conservatives were less enthused with the revolutions, being wary of socialist disurption to the social order and disturbed by events like the Pope being kicked out of Rome.

It does not matter much, however. France is in the throes of its own revolution for all of 1848, as the radicals and the conservatives fight for power. It's only with the election of Nappy III (or with butterflies, Cavaignac) to the Presidency, in December, that the conservatives seize complete control and can put the country back to track. By that time, the revolutions in Germany, Italy, and Hungary shall have failed or succeeded on their own merits (if a PoD paralyzes Russia). If they succeed, by the time he can act in Europe, spring-summer 1849, he would already face a powerful liberal-national coalition of Greater Germany, Italy, and Hungary. So most likely he wouldn't dare, and if he does, his defeat is all but assured, barring sudden channeling of his uncle's military genius (which he had no inkling of, IOTL). He would only fare slightly better chances if he would make a full alliance with Russia, but this is likely only further down the TL. He came to power as a populist hybrid of pro-Catholic conservatorism and pro-liberal support for moderate progress at home and national rights abroad, it would be very difficult for him to ally at once with the champion of the reactionary order, the czar Nicholas I. Besides, Russia might be just a bit weary after dealing with twhatever PoD paralyzed it during 1848.

[Faeelin]

19th century European Liberal Nationalism is an awful lot different to what you call Liberalism today, you know.

To be fair, the proposals of the Baden Revolutionaries would have been progressive in 1919.

[V-J]

To be fair, the proposals of the Baden Revolutionaries would have been progressive in 1919.

Why? What were they asking for?

[pacifichistorian]

I'll admit as a staunch conservative, too often I so fail to distinguish between the ultra-liberal and communist vantage points.. :o
Ah, a member of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, I see.:eek::D
I'll be the first to admit that half my taste in alternate history is half of it is, I learn about our own.
Ditto. Ain't it great? All the stuff you never knew happened, all the people you never heard of before--& all the cool ways it could go different?:cool::cool::cool:
I didn't research anything regarding the question. Just a random event I recalled. :p
You, too, huh?:p:p

[Susano]

Why? What were they asking for?

Reoublic, Democracy, etc. But they were fringe.

The problem of the 1848 revolution is that we have three powers that are juzst too happy to beat down on it in Germany: Prussia, Austria, Russia. Austria and Russia could be engaged elsise via a successful ungarian revolt - indeed, it seems a successful german 1848 depends on a successful hungarian 1848. Prussia now... well, either its coopted (as in the King accepting the crown) or defeated. Of course, the latter is unlikely, but not yet ASB Id say...

Of course, if Frederick William IV does accept the crown everything falls neatly into place. Hed basically basically need to be a completly different person, though, so techncially a PoD before his birth is needed. But if Prussia actively supports 1848... oh my god.

[pompejus]

But if Prussia actively supports 1848... oh my god.
I think Susano just got a germangasm.

[oberdada]

What about King Frederick William IV of Prussia getting shot on March 21st riding through Berlin with the black-red-golden flag?

His successor William I (OTL Kaiser) would have never been able to calm down the uprising like his brother did.
Frankfurt might be butterflied away, instead we'd probably had had Prussian Republic a bit similar to France after 1789.

[Zyzzyva]

What about King Frederick William IV of Prussia getting shot on March 21st riding through Berlin with the black-red-golden flag?

His successor William I (OTL Kaiser) would have never been able to calm down the uprising like his brother did.
Frankfurt might be butterflied away, instead we'd probably had had Prussian Republic a bit similar to France after 1789.

I think the Prussian Army going into screaming kill-burn-destroy spasms might be more likely. It might depend - a bit - on who shot him, but even then repress repress repress is likely to be the first reaction.