Future History: 1980

[NFR]

Well, why not, I thought?

Today is the 1st of January, 1980. In a special celebratory edition of BBC's Question Time, viewers around the world are asked to speculate upon the shape the world is likely to take in the next 25 years.

[carlton_bach]

Well, now, first of all Breshnev won't live forever, so there is hope for his successor. I predict a period of peaceful coexistence between the USSR and the West, Afghanistan notwithstanding, as anything else would be suicidal for both sides. Surely, the ailing Western economies could only benefit, and as to raising living standards in the Warsaw Pact states, that goes without saying.

And does anyone else think this whole 'computer' thing is overblown?

[Grey Wolf]

If that Reagan chap gets in as president I foresee nuclear war before the next few years are out

Grey Wolf

[KJM]

If that Reagan chap gets in as president I foresee nuclear war before the next few years are out

Grey Wolf
Get real. Who'd vote for an actor? :rolleyes:

[NFR]

Get real. Who'd vote for an actor? :rolleyes:

Mr. Reagan is a governor, too. Besides, he got nominated, obviously there are lots of people who did vote for him.

[mattep74]

If that Reagan chap gets in as president I foresee nuclear war before the next few years are out

Grey Wolf

was he even nominated as the runner in january of 1980?

back to the scenario
I think Bjorn Borg will Win Wimbledon as usual. Maybe we will have a referendum about the nuculear plant this year or the next

I wounder what use the computers will have in the future. Maybe paper will go out of style altogether and we will read books on the computer?

But if the cold war continues i fear a third and last world war with europe glowing in the dark. I dont see Soviet going under anytime soon

[Straha]

Marijuana will be legal by 1990. We probably see this president list

1981-1985 Ronald Reagan(R)
1985-1993 Jerry Brown(D)
1993-1997 George H.W. Bush(R)
1997-2005 Paul Tsongas(D)

The democrat party will probably dominate the next fewdecades. The USSR will still be around and the warsaw pact is probably even extended west. The USA may recover but europe is probably lost to the reds forevermore. Maybe someday in the future, decades or centuries from now the reds might fall.

[carlton_bach]

The USSR will still be around and the warsaw pact is probably even extended west. The USA may recover but europe is probably lost to the reds forevermore. Maybe someday in the future, decades or centuries from now the reds might fall.

Get real! If the destructive madness of the cold war has taught us one thing it is that the model of the future is Social Democracy. American can't beat the USSR with weapons, but Sweden can - and will - by example! Look at where Finland is heading! No, it is only a matter of time before the hardliners die and the East Bloc opens up to gradual reform. And given the coming oil crunch, the USSR is in a good position to become very rich indeed. I just hope it happens soon, because life over there is not all that great.

[Straha]

Get real! If the destructive madness of the cold war has taught us one thing it is that the model of the future is Social Democracy. American can't beat the USSR with weapons, but Sweden can - and will - by example! Look at where Finland is heading! No, it is only a matter of time before the hardliners die and the East Bloc opens up to gradual reform. And given the coming oil crunch, the USSR is in a good position to become very rich indeed. I just hope it happens soon, because life over there is not all that great.
Thats why I ad the obviously reactionary republican party be highly weakened as the USA lurches left. We could see a constitutional amendment guarenteeing abortion rights passed in that timefreame.

[Dave Howery]

I actually did this in one of my college classes in '80.... the whole class dreamed up future scenarios and read them out. From what I remember, we came up with:
bad times for the Phillipines; massive civil war as Marcos tried to cling to power against various groups out to oust him.
bad times for the US; Reagan would cancel all welfare and other such govt. programs and drive the US into massive civil unrest.
bad times for people behind the Iron Curtain; with the US distracted by internal problems, the Commies screw the lid down even tighter on their own peoples (absolutely nobody foresaw the fall of the communists in '89).

[Hendryk]

(absolutely nobody foresaw the fall of the communists in '89).
Not quite. While it's true that most experts, futurologists and reputable SF writers like A.C. Clarke completely failed to foresee the collapse of communism, a French graphic novel published in 1981, "Hunting Party" by Enki Bilal and Pierre Christin, hinted at the irreversible decay of Soviet-style systems. The story is about a bunch of old and highly influential dignitaries from various Warsaw Pact countries who meet in a hunting resort, where they all come to the conclusion that the ideology they used to stand for is dead, and they quietly kill the heir-to-be of the most powerful of them, with the tacit agreement that they'll just let the whole system unravel when the time comes.

[Dave Howery]

actually, I meant that noone in the class foresaw it.... :)

[Grimm Reaper]

Dave, you had class? :p

...ahem, I mean to say, what sort of class was this?...

I am concerned about one thing in particular. In truth, President Carter does seem to have an uncanny talent at displaying something akin to the reverse of the 'Midas touch', but I feel that he did something genuinely and morally wrong which may come back to haunt us.

I understand we have grievances with Iran as they continue to hold so many of the people from our embassy, and the mullahs are looking to be an unsavory bunch, but when the Iraqi dictator invaded Iran, Carter really shouldn't have been so openly disinterested if not actually please. I mean, aggression is aggression, even if we are angry at the country being invaded. I just don't think this was a good principle to take.

And I have the strangest feeling that Saddam wants more oil than just what he can grab from Iran.

[Tom_B]

Japan will become the world's dominant economic superpower. Oil will become too scarce to use for anything but petrochemicals by 2000. Iran will export Shiite theocracy to Iran. The space shuttle will usher in a period of affordable space travel. Women's fashion will change yearly but men will wear 3 piece suits to the office and leisure suits at play to at least the millenium. Personal computers will be limited to a niche market--mostly word processing and a few simple games. Serious business computer will be done by mainframes and supercomputers connected to smart terminals.

[MarkWhittington]

George Bush will be nominated on the Republican ticket and will win this year's election. He will be seen as a far better manager of the Cold War, which will be with us for decades, than Jimmy Carter.

The space shuttle, due to be launched next year, will open up a golden age of cheap space travel and will lead to a space station before this decade is out and trips to the Moon and Mars before the end of the century.

Stagflation will be a permenent fixture in the world economy.

Energy shortages will force a stiff downgrading in the standard of living in the Wesr.

National health care will be instituted in the United States by 1990, when Teddy Kennedy is President.

The Iranian Revolution will lead to either a military dictatorship or a communist takeover in Iran.

[DMS]

in all important economic measures by 2005, unless Americans wake up and realize that the Japanese way of managing firms and organizing markets is plainly superior.

[NFR]

Ahh, the days when "Japan, Inc." was the most admired capitalist system, of Japanese world economic dominance, Zen and the art of investment and the corporate samurai!

*is nostalgic*

[NHBL]

Two of the world's chronic trouble spots, Ireland and the Middle East, will simply continue to be trouble--more than one politician will ruin his reputatioin trying to broker an end to them. The Baltics, however, will remain relatively quiet, since the USSR will not let them make trouble.

[cow defender]

the future? punk rock is the future.

we are the raging barbarians of your dollar empire we forsake the gifts given to us by an industrial society and lay claim to everything and nothing. a sea of fury, red and black, will overcome your shopping society and the world will be remade in the image of...


the ramones!!!!

beat on the brat beat on the brat beat on the brat
with a baseball bat
oh yeah
oh yeah

[Midgard]

With the Olympic Games held in Moscow, and the Soviet power and culture clearly displayed to the world, it is doubtless that it won't be long before the capitalists realize the error of their ways, and will follow in the footsteps of the USSR. Already there are rumors of riots in the American cities, and ever-worsening oppression of every minority under the sun. Soon, their population will rise up and overthrow the government that keeps them poor and oppressed, and will join us in the glorious World Communist Revolution! No wonder the Americans decided not to send any of their athletes to Moscow - they are afraid that they will want to stay.

I'd say in the next twenty years capitalist regimes of the west will implode from within, and their people will seek Soviet guidance in building a new future for themselves. Already our soldiers are rooting out the last of the extremists in Afghanistan - it would not be too long before we bring the enlightened communism there. And, should the westerners try to invade in a last-ditch effort to stop us, the Red Army is stronger than ever.

Hello? Yes officer, I am indeed very optimistic about the future of the USSR. Doesn't KGB feel the same way?

[BCO]

I think Carter is being helped by the crisis atmosphere due to Iran and Afghanistan. Ted Kennedy's challenge will probably go nowhere, and if both challenges are handled well Carter will probably win the November election.

As for the next 25 years, I think the most critical ones for world peace are 1980 to 1985, since the Soviets have the ability to overrun Western Europe very quickly, and it will take at least 5 years to build a more effective defence using better technology to match their superior numbers. The invasion of Afghanistan shows that they do not confine their ambitions to their established zone of influence.