2010 Map

[DominusNovus]

I was bored, so I threw together a map of a possibility for the year 2010 (OTL). Its not a final draft or anything, I'm just too tired to keep going tonight (half past 2 in the morning). I'll just run through the colors real quick, and anything worth noting. Other than that, I haven't thought too much about anything, so feel free to suggest ideas.

-Blue- NAFTA
-Orange- SACN
-Green- Arab League
-Red- EU
-Pink- states in negotiation to join the EU
-Purple- CIS
-Yellow- ASEAN

-Transnistria is independent
-Moldova has been incorporated into Romania
-Greenland is independent
-Construction is underway on a Nicuraguan Canal, capable of handling much larger ships than the Panama Canal
-The Saudi Regime has been overthrown (possibly with outside assistance, haven't decided yet) and has been replaced with the Republic of Arabia
-Korea has been unified.

Thats all that I've come up with for now, please suggest something interesting. :D

[Thande]

Nice, it looks much like my FH map for 2020. But why has Turkey already joined the EU? Most EU people are putting it off till at least 2015...

I think Romania reabsorbing all Moldova but Transdniestria is realistic, but maybe not at a time when they're trying to get into the EU.

[Thande]

I see the Cuban communists have been overthrown?

I think if the Saudi monarchy fell, at the moment it would be replaced by an Islamic republic that would make Iran look moderate.

[Gladi]

Bright day
Why is Greenland indep?
And there is strong possibility that by 2010 both Norway and Switzerland will aply for place in EU (Swiss last time voted quite close).
And I always heard that Arab League is dead, some of its states would like to applz to EU :eek: , for gods sake! And if it is not that West Sahara is colony of Morocco and will be for forseeable future.
SACN? I am sorry but I know only Mercosur, is that new name for that?

[Thande]

I believe Greenland is already de facto independent, isn't it? I know it pulled out of the EU in the 1980s while Denmark stayed in.

Norway MAY join the EU eventually - its population have rejected it in two referenda so far - I really can't see Switzerland joining any time in the next 50 years.

Don't know about the Arab League's current vivacity but I could see it reviving in response to US aggression (Arab solidarity and all that). Maybe Dom's map was one of those politically correct ones that refuses to acknowledge that Western Sahara is controlled by Morocco (only recently did I find a map where de facto is de jure).

By the way, Gladi, why do you start every post with 'Bright day'? :confused:

[Dave Howery]

ok, dumb question time... does Greenland have an actual permanent population?

[Paul Spring]

ok, dumb question time... does Greenland have an actual permanent population?

I'm pretty sure that it does. It's a very small population, mostly Inuit, I think.

[Farnham]

ok, dumb question time... does Greenland have an actual permanent population?

I'm pretty sure that it does. It's a very small population, mostly Inuit, I think.
A permanent population is there, but very small. Less than 60,000 people on the whole island.

[lope3328]

What type of government would the Arab league have?

[DominusNovus]

SACN? I am sorry but I know only Mercosur, is that new name for that?
Kinda. Its a recently formed free trade zone thats still in the works, its supposed to be done by 2007, IIRC. Its basically just a comebination of Mercosur and its Andean counterpart.

[Leo Caesius]

Eritrea became a member of the Arab League in 2003, IIRC.

[DominusNovus]

Anyone think its possible that Turkey could join by 2010? Its presently in negotiations, and there's talk of the Balkan states joining between 2010-15, and they're not even in negotiations yet.

[MerryPrankster]

Are NAFTA and the South American bloc EU-like political organizations, or are they just free-trade bodies?

I think the US has a free trade agreement of some kind with Chile...perhaps they could be NAFTA members too.

[Leo Caesius]

Yes, we have FTAs with Chile and Singapore. These are also the only two countries whose citizens are allowed to renew their H1-B visas indefinitely. This agreement actually benefits the Singaporeans more than the Chileans, as there are four times as many Singaporeans working in the US.

[zoomar]

I have a similar question. Are the free trade agreement areas like NAFTA somewhat politically unified? If not, why show them as single entities equivalent to the EU, which does have an increasingly strong political component? This seems to be mapping apples and oranges. If they are somewhat politically unified, I don't see how that'll happen in 5 years. Certainly not if any of the Canadians on this board have something to say about it!

Greenland also has an official native name also, doesn't it?

[DominusNovus]

I have a similar question. Are the free trade agreement areas like NAFTA somewhat politically unified? If not, why show them as single entities equivalent to the EU, which does have an increasingly strong political component? This seems to be mapping apples and oranges. If they are somewhat politically unified, I don't see how that'll happen in 5 years. Certainly not if any of the Canadians on this board have something to say about it!
Cuz I didn't want the entire area to be just blank white. :rolleyes:

[csa945]

This is AH, right?

In OTL, I don't see Korea being unified in the next five years (could be wrong about this one, though -- we'll have to see what happens now that the 6-party talks are falling, or moreover, have fallen, apart) or the Saudi regime overthrown, much less NAFTA expanding into a politically unifying organization. The collapse of Cuba is possible -- I think it'll fall apart as soon as Fidel kicks the bucket. Also, I doubt there would be a new canal in Nicaragua. We didn't really care that much when we had to hand over the Panamanian one to the locals, because we don't really use ships that much anymore. Do carriers not fit through the canal now? I'd imagine they're the biggest ships we have and I know battleships can fit through (not that we make them anymore). If carriers don't fit (note that I have no information on this whatsoever -- just a hunch), I imagine it would be cheaper to build twice as many carriers as we do now (build one on each coast every ten years or so, instead of just one/decade) than to build another canal.

The Saudis are beginning to liberalize somewhat -- I believe I heard something about them making the landmark decision to hold an election soon -- a very restricted one, but an election nonetheless. And I am of the general opinion that Iraqi Democracy will se off a reverse domino effect in the Middle East -- this is what the analysts have been saying since the Iraq elections at least, that Iraq will probably have more influence in Iran than vice versa, which is what was once proposed.

[csa945]

Oops; double-post. Sorry.

[Peter]

Anyone think its possible that Turkey could join by 2010? Its presently in negotiations, and there's talk of the Balkan states joining between 2010-15, and they're not even in negotiations yet.

Turkey won't be let in at least untill 2015, and she'll still most likely get vetoed.

[DominusNovus]

This is AH, right?

In OTL, I don't see Korea being unified in the next five years (could be wrong about this one, though -- we'll have to see what happens now that the 6-party talks are falling, or moreover, have fallen, apart) or the Saudi regime overthrown, much less NAFTA expanding into a politically unifying organization. The collapse of Cuba is possible -- I think it'll fall apart as soon as Fidel kicks the bucket. Also, I doubt there would be a new canal in Nicaragua. We didn't really care that much when we had to hand over the Panamanian one to the locals, because we don't really use ships that much anymore. Do carriers not fit through the canal now? I'd imagine they're the biggest ships we have and I know battleships can fit through (not that we make them anymore). If carriers don't fit (note that I have no information on this whatsoever -- just a hunch), I imagine it would be cheaper to build twice as many carriers as we do now (build one on each coast every ten years or so, instead of just one/decade) than to build another canal.
Its OTL.

Carriers don't fit through Panama, nor do the largest supertankers. There is some talk of building a new canal in Nicaragua, which would cost $25 billion and would shorten shpping times from the East Coast to the West by 800 miles. Each Nimitz-class aircraft carrier costs $4.5 billion, with 9 built and one more underway, giving us a bill of $45 billion to double the fleet.

Korea probably wasn't unified peacefully.

[fortyseven]

Saudis held municpal elections this past week, first time in 40 years. Saudi Arabia is one of the last absolute monarchies.

[lope3328]

If we do see a mroe politically unified EU, Then there would be an offchance of haveing some unification talks in N AMerica with NAFTA. It would be something to counter the EU if we were ever hostile to them, which i dont see happening in the future with some type of conflict witht the EU. But I bet the US itself would be just a powerful as the EU

[htgriffin]

-Transnistria is independentI can see this as a deal with what is below.
-Moldova has been incorporated into Romania
-Greenland is independentWhy? I suspect it is a bit of a Danish Tax Sink and the level of autonamy satisfies all but a few cranks.

And as noted elsewhere, there are only 60K people on the whole island.
-Construction is underway on a Nicuraguan Canal, capable of handling much larger ships than the Panama Canal
-The Saudi Regime has been overthrown (possibly with outside assistance, haven't decided yet) and has been replaced with the Republic of ArabiaHmm... this could be bad (although any replacement would be hard-pressed to be half as corrupt)
-Korea has been unified.After seeing what theOstStaten has done to Germany? No way.

Thats all that I've come up with for now, please suggest something interesting. :DDRC disintergrating? Zimbabwe coming under U.N. Occupation?

HTG

[csa945]

Its OTL.

Carriers don't fit through Panama, nor do the largest supertankers. There is some talk of building a new canal in Nicaragua, which would cost $25 billion and would shorten shpping times from the East Coast to the West by 800 miles. Each Nimitz-class aircraft carrier costs $4.5 billion, with 9 built and one more underway, giving us a bill of $45 billion to double the fleet.

Korea probably wasn't unified peacefully.

I was entirely unaware of this. I had just never heard anything about the construction of another canal on the news before.

I just don't think that Korea will be unified peacefully or otherwise in the next five years. Just my opinion, though. I think the US will focus on Iran and let the other major powers who have a more direct interest in stability in Korea -- China, Russia, Japan handle them, at least until there's a democratic revolution in Iran -- or we go to war with them, too.

[csa945]

If we do see a mroe politically unified EU, Then there would be an offchance of haveing some unification talks in N AMerica with NAFTA. It would be something to counter the EU if we were ever hostile to them, which i dont see happening in the future with some type of conflict witht the EU. But I bet the US itself would be just a powerful as the EU

I'm taking a poli sci class now called America's Future, in which we have studied, among other things, the potential for the US to have substantial rivals in the EU, China, India, etc. Despite the sensationalist titles of some recent books, the probability of any of these countries overtaking the US in power is slim. My prof showed me a book from the 80's he still keeps around, more or less for kicks, about how Japan would overtake the US and become the foremost economic power in the next few years. :rolleyes: