When will the US begin to retire as global superpower?

[raharris1973]

A future history question-

At what point over the coming century, or later, will the US pull back from being a global superpower, reverting to a role that is mostly focused on the western hemisphere, and is no more than a small supporting player in the balance of power in Eurasia and Africa, if that?

When will Howard Dean's prediction become true, that the US will no longer be the world's leading military power?

[Thande]

In one of my FH timelines it's 2020, but that's in a nuclear fireball, so that's not really retirement...

I would guess about 2050, and it wouldn't be so much the US getting weaker as other powers (China, Russia, maybe the EU) getting stronger so the world is no longer so mono-polar.

[NapoleonXIV]

We may not survive the Bush Administration.

Being Global Hegemon isn't just a matter of having a huge Army. We also have to be able to pay for it, and its outrageously expensive. Right now we are borrowing practically every penny of the money necessary for all this global adventuring.

If Bush decides to invade Iran, as I am certain is his next plan, the rest of the world may come to its senses and realize that there is a real risk we may not pay some of this money back. When that happens the interest on any loans they make to us will go up, drastically.

This will be reflected back through our entire economy. Interest rates will go very high. Inflation will soar, at rates of 12 to 20 percent. The result will be recession, maybe even depression.

If Bush gets his SS plan bulldozed through it will be depression almost certainly. High inflation rates in his new system will result in SS benefit cuts to everyone, even those getting it now, and show just how completely unworkable the plan is. This will cause a massive loss of confidence in the American public, with a consequent cut in public spending unlike anything seen since the 30's.

[Kadyet]

When Mammoth blows up.

[MerryPrankster]

Napoleon,

I don't always agree with you, but this time I do (mostly). I have some "collapse of US superpower" scenarios and most of them revolve around a financial collapse due to the deficit, the debt, etc.

If we invade Iran, a country with a real military and a culture the military will fight to defend (unlike Iraq), as well as WMDs (chemo-bio and if we're slow and they're quick, a nuke), I think fiscal collapse would come VERY soon.

Don't quite understand why the Bush SS plan would cause inflation though...it's only 4% of one's payroll tax being invested.

[Leo Caesius]

I think that the US retirement will be largely voluntary. Eventually the Neocons' policy of waging endless wars against the latest villains du jour and threatening everyone who crosses their path will result in some blowback. Given that major ports like NYC and LA are largely unsecure, all it would take would be the detonation of a dirty bomb in the harbor to kill many thousands of people and render major cities uninhabitable. Tommy Franks remarked that it would be very easy for terrorists to target our food supplies. It's not a question of whether but of when.

I suspect that there will come a point when Americans grow tired of their relationship with a hostile world and simply opt to become insular.

[basileus]

Nothing less of a bloody nose gotten somewhere will stop the self-labelled democratic Leviathan form crushing anyone on its path. When someone TOO BIG to be brought to heels will be found - it could be China, though I think US starategy will be that of trying to instigate a civil war and a new Warlord Era. Or it could be a protracted military struggle against a hostile "core" Europe - though I think Russia would immediately align with the Us as to get back what she has lost fifteen years ago.

The only thing that will stop US hegemony will be brute force, and the emerging of new rivals,. What I wonder is whether the US will ACCEPT a reduction of their monocratic power, or will instead go berserk nuking China, Russia and Europe. It largely depends on who will be in charge at that time. The only thing I'm sure of is they will be the same SOBs as ever.

[Bulgaroktonos]

I dont think anything is going to stop the US from being the technological superpower any time soon. In terms of force projection, the United States is going to remain the sole nation capable of attacking anywhere for the foreseeable future. Apocalypse scenarios about how Bush is going to destroy the country are unrealisitic and so much poppycock. Iran is not going to be invaded, mark my words. Bush and Co. are not idiots. They might be evil geniuses, but they are not idiots. They are not going to attack a country like Iran which would involve a far greater troop committment and much more bloodshed. If anybody were to get invaded, it would be Syria, which has had the pressure ratcheted up in the last few weeks.

However, as I said in the next superpower, the United States is going to remain a military juggernaught in terms of technology and power. I see our long range weapons systems increasing and our air force going up, but our army being reduced in size, or specialized into special forces units. This is a result of the 'small wars' doctrine. Many view the conventional wars of the past as irrelevant and extinct and therefore call for the focus of the military on small, highly mobile, technologically advanced, highly trained units to combat insurgent forces, similar to what we are seeing in Afghanistan. America is probably not going to be doing a lot of occupation duty in the far flung future, as its going to find itself less and less capable of doing so, due to the lack of emphasis on convention ground pounders (apart from the Marines, which will likely remain unchanged in tactics and doctrines).

As for the rest of the world, its going to take a very long time for any one country to develop the means to project its might on a global scale. Don't expect the EU to do so in most of our lifetimes. Their social programs and social mindsets are just not geared towards the kind of military build up it would take. Russia may be able to begin replacing the US within 20 years, if Putin's policies and ideas come to total fruition. China and India are variable, depending on how their economies fare in the next 10 years or so. If they continue on their current growth rates, we may begin to see signs of a looming confrontation between the two giants, with Russia perhaps backing India due to the fear of China that is growing even now...

[raharris1973]

but not before throwing some big last punches at somebody. Who gets flattened when this happens, where would our trade and immigration policies stand at that point? Only a complete lack of any breadcrumb trail could forestall some type of acting out by the US.

Basileus, your idea of the US nuking the other great powers is nutty. But, if Leo's scenario occurred I could imagine the US nuking some perceived hostile powers who do NOT have ICBMs.

I think a Vietnam replay might help usher in US retirement, but even then, as in the Cold War, that might just be retirement from brushfire wars, not a global posture of shaping the balance of power (ie US had a Vietnam syndrome but didn't quit NATO).

Other scenarios would include US allies collectively kicking us out of their bases. I guess their disappointment with US policy only goes so far since they haven't done that yet.

[Thande]

Back in 2002 Putin wanted Russia, China and India to pursue a military alliance to become an anti-US superpower (which is the origin of the Eastern Coalition in my FH timeline). Right now, though, that doesn't strike me as particularly realistic, what with all the bad blood between India and China, to say nothing of China and Russia.

[Dave Howery]

I'm not sure I see any kind of permanent 'retirement' from power projection; I see it as a series of ups and downs. This is entirely dependent on who is president and national mood. After Vietnam, people were predicting we'd never get into another war overseas, and we didn't for several years. Enter Reagan and a quick war in Grenada. Enter Bush 1 and quick wars in Panama and the Gulf. Enter Clinton.. and not much of anything (Somalia and the Balkans). Enter Bush 2 and a BIG upswing with Afghanistan and Iraq. The next president.....? Who knows... maybe he'll push for a pullback in foreign entanglements, maybe he won't. Our 4 year election cycle means that you'll never know what you'll get....
Like the others on here, I think it would take something drastic to topple the US from superpower status... a permanent economic collapse, or a flat out defeat and occupation by foreign powers....