When's the next big war (and who'll be fighting)?

[Ivan Druzhkov]

Well, we're in the first decade of the 21st century, and the various nations of the Earth are scrabbling for power, as they always do. Of course, when two powers meet, there are always goals each has that don't sit well with the other. Naturally, this leads to war. In fact, for just about every century of human civilization, some of the planet's major powers have fought each other.

Despite the recent advances in technology, I don't expect the 21st century to be any different.

So, from where you're sitting now, when do you think the next big war will happen, and who'll be fighting it?

[Justin Green]

This might not be the next war, but I have a feeling that Central Asia (including Iran Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq) will probably be the scene of a major war.

I honestly beleive that I will live to see the destruction of Israel. And i fully beleive they will manage to take Egypt and Syria with them.

[Thande]

US versus China. Probably not hot war, but battles through proxies. And maybe a Chinese attempt to subsume India, which is a power rival but sorely disadvantaged because it's surrounded by Chinese allies.

The EU as usual will say it wants to be a world power while spending more on paperclips than it does on weapons.

Maybe a few more US or international interventions in places like Venezuela and Zimbabwe, but I doubt they'd blow up into big wars.

Possibly conflict over Russia trying to get back the lands it lost when the USSR fell.

[Weapon M]

India vs Pakistan would be fairly spectacular...

That's the biggest I can see in the immediate future.

China vs Taiwan. The frustrated Chinese failing to actually get a decent number of troops to land will be hilarious....Still be good for some wild air-to-air and naval hijinks.

The North Korea thing...might be worth a look. Baby Kimmie might get cranky in his old age and figure, what the hell, lets go south while throwing missiles across the water. Might we see Japan (with the new Joint Strike Fighter) kicking some ass once again?

The "Stan" wars. Stan Wars: A No Hope. Episode something or other. Some Stan or other gets all Islamic Republic on us and gets way out of line. Maybe even Ivan has to slap him down.

Maybe East Turkestan and Tibet finally dish out some serious insurrectionist grief against The PRC? Can you just see Beijing wasting some peace-loving monks as part of their own version of "The War on Terror"?

But really, really cool will be some thing we haven't thought of or predicted just blowing all to hell. A full blown war between Sub-Saharan Africa and Arab states? Allied invasion of Venezuela?

It will be cool. It will be entertaining. It will be coming soon!!! Stay tuned...

[Faeelin]

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It will be cool. It will be entertaining. It will be coming soon!!! Stay tuned...

You find the death of hundreds of thousands of people entertaining?

[Xen]

You find the death of hundreds of thousands of people entertaining?

Sure why do you think War Movies, and Slasher flicks are usually at the top of the box office. People like watching other people get killed..... where have you been?

[Leo Caesius]

How about this one:

Armenia (or, rather, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabagh) is sitting on top of ca. 20% of Azerbaijan's territory. This has resulted in an enormous refugee crisis in Azerbaijan. Armenia has the upper hand right now, but is not attracting enough settlers to hold that area; in fact, if anything, Armenia has decreased in population over the last decade as people have emigrated. Armenia also separates Azerbaijan proper from the exclave of Nakhichevan.

Add to this the fact that Azerbaijan is potentially one of the world's top oil producing countries which is only now starting to reap the benefits of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. The Azeri economy has enormous potential for growth, while the Armenian economy is dead in the water. Eventually the Azeris (who are our allies in the War on Terror) are going to grow tired of the occupation, the refugee situation, and so on, and will have enough cash, enough people, and enough toys to take it back - either by engaging in a little saber-rattling or by a full-out invasion.

I can't see Armenia coming out of this well. The Azeris will probably end up taking back Nagorno-Karabagh and the rest of their territory, and may even demand some other things as well (a corridor to Nakhichevan?). Russia may back Armenia, and Turkey will certain stand behind Azeribaijan. Iran and America will also pick sides (Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively), but it remains to be seen if they would actually get involved in this conflict (I suspect they'll sit this one out). All in all, this is a hotspot that promises to become very messy.

This has everything you could possibly want - oil, Islam v. Christianity, the involvement of the Great Powers; it's a real geopolitical powderkeg.

[zoomar]

The Taiwan War of 2010-2012. Chinese attempt sudden, surprise, military occupation of Taiwan, which is less sucessful than they had hoped. Taiwanese resistance is effective and world media on hand covers numerous Chinese atrocities in waging the war. One thing leads to another and brief conflict with USA erupts with threats of nuclear escalation, ended by EU mediation and a formal recognition of Taiwanese independence and end of all claims that Nationalist govt in Taiwan is the legitimate govt of China.

The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2015-2019. With EU (and US) prodding, Ukraine moves closer and closer to west, becoming a member of NATO in 2009. West-leaning Ukrainian govt is faced with revolt in Russian-aligned eastern part of country. What starts as a civil war blows up when Russian forces invade with intention of (at least) partitioning Ukraine and creating a buffer between them and NATO. EU postures, provides some limited economic and equipment assistance to Ukrainian govt, prompting Russian decision to occupy whole country. This leads ultimately to...

The War of Russian Restoration 2019-2022. The first realy big war of the 21st Century. Deciding that Russia must solidify and protect its western frontier from creeping westernization, Russian govt issues demands to all former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact members thay they must withdraw from the EU and/or Nato. This is backed up by an embargo and naval/air blockade of the Baltic Republics and Poland, and the massing of troops on the borders of Moldava and Bulgaria. EU, led by Finland, Sweden, The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Germany state that Russian military action against any of the threatened states might result in a military response from Europe. Russians call EU bluff by unvading Moldava, Poland, and the Baltic Republics. Except for Finns assisting Estonia and Swedish air sea actions insupport of retreating Polish forces, EU dithers and US (which has by now withdrawn from NATO and has only a bilaterial defense treaty with the UK) does nothing. Russia reabsorbs the Baltics and Moldava into the Federation and forces Poland to demilitarize leave the NATO alliance. EU and NATO collapse. All other former Warsaw Pact nations leave EU seek non-agression pacts with Russia, while Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, and Algeria leave EU and cement protective bilateral alliances with the USA, South Africa, and or Pakistan. Both France and Germany elect stongly nationalist governments and also leave EU and focus on developing their national economies and militaries.

The Islam War 2030-50. Responding to decades of mounting terrorism and suspicion of Islamic militancy centered around a rejuvenated Pakistan-Iranian-Indonesian-Saudi-Sudanese Radical Islamic alliance, the USA, Australia, Israel, India, South Africa, and several other predominantly non-Muslim African and East-Asian states mount a massive military campaign aimed at nothing less than the destruction of Islam as a major diplomatic and military power. The war starts hot, goes nuclear with both military and terrorist use of nuclear weapons, and then after the major centers of Pakistani, Iranian, and Indonesian resistance are either occupied or destroyed it becomes a long, drawn out and low-intensity struggle involving most of the world - either as participants or stages.

Leading ultimately to...

The War (which is still going on in 2090 and has no other name). Most European nations are now fighting - against both sides in the original Islam War in reaction to terrorism and military action undertaken by both sides on European soil. China has again invaded Taiwan, this time sucessfully and is at war with Vietnam. Russia is fighting Germany and France in the Balkans. The Middle East is aflame and Africa is suffering genocide and starvation. About the only relatively peaceful area is South America.

[Weapon M]

You find the death of hundreds of thousands of people entertaining?

Think of the ratings, man, the ratings!!! And the marketing potential....
Buddhist Rebel action figures!!!

Right, because you never watch war movies or CNN or read about war coverage, or history....

Besides, it's going to happen. There will be wars and stuff, whether you claim to be entertained by it or not. I'd rather it didn't happen, and we can all sing Kumbayah and eat s'mores around a nice campfire, but that's not how humans behave, so you might as well get a kick out of it....

[Thande]

I believe war is built into the human condition. If we fail to fight each other for too long, we'll end up not being human anymore. Just look at the EU. :eek:

[Scarecrow]

i think china will invade russia, especialy to get bwck the Pacifica Marantime province, adn that the pop is 3:1 in favor of china, that land must look awful tempting. the other 'war' would be the disintergration of Indonesia, supported by Aus

[Dave Howery]

Jesusland vs. Liberalweenieland (or Greater Canada, as some reactionaries insist on calling it)....

[Kadyet]

China vs Taiwan. It won't be as easy as you guys seem to think though. I'd advise checking out the China board on Strategypage.com.

[DMA]

I guess it depends what it means by the word "big".

Anyways, the next ruckus will be in Africa. Sudan is looking like a pretty good bet, but there's always Congo or one of the other countries in the Gulf of Africa. Then again Somalia & Ethiopia are posibilities as well.

Further afield, we'd be probably looking at the USA taking on either Syria &/or Iran. Forget the USA taking on North Korea. For some reason the USA is doing everything it can to avoid a war with Uncle Kim.

Elsewhere, war is looking pretty slim. I don't go along with China invading anyone let alone Taiwan. Likewise, India & Pakistan seem to be warming their relations as is China, Russia, & India.

There is zero chance of war in Europe, unless Serbia or someone else goes real stupid, but expect any response to be similar to what happened in Kosovo. Russia won't be attacking anyone, except maybe Chechnya.

South America is the only other place where something may flare up. So some territorial dispute, eg Peru & someone, may see some shooting, but that's extremely remote.

[MerryPrankster]

"The international community" could intervene in Somalia to install the "new government" (which exists as a committee in Kenya at this point, I think) in Mogadishu by force. This might lead to an insurgency by some of the clans.

Of course, the fact that "Somaliland" (the northernmost of the post-Somalia governments) has all sorts of dealings with the EU might cause problems.

[Dave Howery]

Further afield, we'd be probably looking at the USA taking on either Syria &/or Iran. Forget the USA taking on North Korea. For some reason the USA is doing everything it can to avoid a war with Uncle Kim.
.
No, we're just getting practice. First Iraq, as a warmup. Then Syria for a little more exercise. Then Iran, a lot bigger target, but we should be able to handle it. Then NK... this'll be a tough one, but the experience we have should carry us through. And then we'll be ready for the really big one... Australia!
:p

[DMA]

No, we're just getting practice. First Iraq, as a warmup. Then Syria for a little more exercise. Then Iran, a lot bigger target, but we should be able to handle it. Then NK... this'll be a tough one, but the experience we have should carry us through. And then we'll be ready for the really big one... Australia!
:p


But the USA already owns Australia more or less...

[Count Dearborn]

The Second American Civil War. The drug makers pull an Enron, and a group of US citizens decide that they are going to take it from the Corporations anymore. The s**t hits the fan when the Military muntinies. A 21st century version of the Terror happens when corporate big wigs get killed by irate former customers. In the aftermath, mega-corporation are no longer allowed in the continental US. In the years that follow, Bush becomes a dirty word. The descendents of the Bush and Cheney families are forced to move to another country. Both Bush libraries are burned.

[Diamond]

The next big war is going to occur in my bathroom in about 5 minutes as I go to wage war with the porcelain god.

Ohhhhhh... goddam greasy burritos... :(

[Othniel]

Iran devolps its own nukes and promises to back Pakistan in taking Kashmir? They also aqquire China or Russia as part of this Allience. India appeals to the E.U and or the U.S.A...or even just Aus. Soon fantics in Indonesia join the fight against Aussieland and India...Minor nuclear warfare possible.

[Kit]

EU and NATO collapse.


It always makes me wonder when Americans casually drop into timelines scenarios where the EU collapses and countries start withdrawing from it as if they're revoking their gym membership.

I mean yeah, maybe as late as 1992 that would have been possible. It's not any longer. It's not just a customs union or trade block any longer. It's not comparable to NAFTA.

Like it or loath it the EU is pretty much so entrenched into the political, judicial, economic, and bureaucratic infrastructure of its members, that it's not just going to evaporate away like a covering of frost with a blowtorch. Like I've said in other threads, it's not a superstate, and I don't think it ever will be in the sense that most people think of, but it's already far more than a talking shop with free trade.