Who will be the next superpower?

[Thande]

Which country will either replace or equal the US as a superpower first?

[Grey Wolf]

I reckon that anywhere within 50-300 years it will be China, if you excuse my margin of error !

Grey Wolf

[Kit]

Well, I think the EU has the most potential capacity to. But it won't. Simply because a true 'superpower' in the sense you're talking about needs an ambitious, expansive political doctrine at it's heart. The EU, whatever it becomes, will I think be perfectly content to become immensely wealthy, with extremely high living standards, a very strong defensive military strategy, introspective, and probably a little staid. I don't think it will want to go out and conquer the world, or be willing to re-organise itself into a polity that could.

Providing that the time of multiple superpowers is not over, then I would have to say probably China. Nothing original there.

[DMA]

China closely followed by the EU.

India shouldn't be ignored either.

[Flocculencio]

Well, I think the EU has the most potential capacity to. But it won't. Simply because a true 'superpower' in the sense you're talking about needs an ambitious, expansive political doctrine at it's heart. The EU, whatever it becomes, will I think be perfectly content to become immensely wealthy, with extremely high living standards, a very strong defensive military strategy, introspective, and probably a little staid. I don't think it will want to go out and conquer the world, or be willing to re-organise itself into a polity that could.

I agree- I think the EU has the potential to become the new "Middle Kingdom" retreating into splendid isolationism and only responding to direct threats against itself.

[Psychomeltdown]

I pick Russia, mainly because China is too easy. We basically all know it has abitions to dominate, like any good rising power. But I'm thinking that somewhere in the next couple of decades Russia will have a new age.

The old Communism crashed around them, but there's still that old sense of "we were a power to be reckoned with" floating around. All it takes is a few ambitious men and a strong leader to unite them. Then there's no stopping the red menace, though I doubt communixm will make a come back.

so Go Russia!!!

[NapoleonXIV]

"I bring you acres of timber, rivers of gold and mountains of fur, the bad news is; Its in Siberia." Boris Godunov

Russia remains the world's largest country and still has vast untapped reserves of just about everything. Baku alone should make Russia very wealthy after the Arabs go dry and that's not their only big oilfield.

[Matthew Craw]

"I bring you acres of timber, rivers of gold and mountains of fur, the bad news is; Its in Siberia." Boris Godunov

Russia remains the world's largest country and still has vast untapped reserves of just about everything. Baku alone should make Russia very wealthy after the Arabs go dry and that's not their only big oilfield.

Pity it's not in russia then, and my understanding is that the Presian Gukf fields are likely to be the last majr reserves to run dry, not the first.


Realistically this has to be China, barring a major upset she'll have the world's largest economy by about 2030 at the latest, she has no regional rivals (in East Asia) an emerging allance with Russia and her only possible rival is increasing dependant on Chinese cash to maintain her solvency.i

[LordKalvan]

The most likely is China. There are just two possible clouds: for thousands of year, the Chinese have been convinced that the only area worth governing is China; the second one, Chinese are becoming to see some cash and some consumer goods. Will they become another EU?

The second alternative is Russia: they have immense resources, and an imperial attitude.

The EU is likely to remain what it is nowadays: rich, civilised and a bit introvert. Truly, a Middle Kingdom of the 21st century. OTOH, during last century (and the centuries before too) Europeans had the greatest imperial greed of all. 70 years ago, Germany rolled the dice for world dominance. Have they really changed so much?

[Hendryk]

I predictably concur with the general consensus, and choose China (but you know I would have no matter what :rolleyes: ). They have all they need for superpowerdom: population, resources, economic influence, military clout, cultural resilience, and of course a long-standing imperial ambition. This being said, it is true that China is not expansionist the way Western powers used to be; its sphere of influence is more likely to be a largely informal, behind-the-scenes one, with the occasional display of overlordship. It may annex (or, more accurately, re-annex) Mongolia and the south-eastern parts of Siberia that were confiscated by Russia in the mid-19th century, but that's about it; for the rest, it will be content enough with a system of client states in East Asia and the appropriate diplomatic deference from the rest of the world.
I also agree with what has so far been said about the EU. If integration goes well in the next few decades, it will become a large, complacent economic power with high standards of living and few global ambitions--not a threat to anyone. What influence it will have will be felt in discreet ways, such as business regulations.
OTOH, I think Russia is terminally washed-out. Its population is decreasing so fast that many parts of the country (most of them east of the Urals) are becoming virtually depopulated. I don't think such a trend can be reversed in the foreseeable future. At best, it will be like Brasil; at worst, like Zaire/Congo.

[LordKalvan]

I also agree with what has so far been said about the EU. If integration goes well in the next few decades, it will become a large, complacent economic power with high standards of living and few global ambitions--not a threat to anyone. What influence it will have will be felt in discreet ways, such as business regulations.
OTOH, I think Russia is terminally washed-out. Its population is decreasing so fast that many parts of the country (most of them east of the Urals) are becoming virtually depopulated. I don't think such a trend can be reversed in the foreseeable future. At best, it will be like Brasil; at worst, like Zaire/Congo.
If really Russia goes terminal (and EU integrates well), I might postulate a Russia absorbed in the European mainstream (the European Wild West!), maybe giving back to China Mongolia and the Amur river lands.
Now that would be an interesting scenario, but don't hold yr breath. Maybe in 50 years time

[Sir Isaac Brock]

China seems the obvious choice, and for good reason. But China just might shoot itself in the foot, opening the door for India.

India's population is growing much more quickly than China's and will soon replace the People's Republic as the most populous nation on earth.

India is a democratic state with a high degree of durability. It is unlikely to collapse in the manner of the USSR no matter how bad things go in the short term politically or economically. Dictatorial China on the other hand is a few Tiananmen Squares away from just such a collapse at any given moment. It's shaky, on-again off-again, reforms could run off the rails at anytime.

India's most likely military rival, Pakistan is inherently unstable, has few allies, and would not provide any serious competition in a one-on-one conflict. China's likely rival Taiwan, is a prosperous democratic nation armed to the teeth and backed by the US, Japan, and South Korea. One could see a China-Taiwan war in which the US gets involved ending like the Falklands War, with the regime that started it collapsing.

Speaking of Korea, the North is a huge potential liability to China, and could destabilize the region.

India's democratic nature leads me to believe it can play a constructive role ending conflicts in neighbouring states, (Nepal, Sri Lanka, etc.) creating stability and winning allies. Why should anyone listen to China, it has no moral authority while it is destroying Tibetan culture? I don't see China getting along with most of its neghbours in the future. Especially not Vietnam, probably not Russia, definitely not Japan. China doesn't have the diplomatic touch to help in sticky situations like Burma or Afghanistan.

The most important field of course, will be the economy. Here China is clearly ahead. This is because of pro-export strategy the Chinese have adopted. India should follow suit. But India should also expand in to areas where the free flow of information and protection of intellectual property is vital, areas that Command-and-Control China is disadvantaged in. I'm thinking of computer and biological technology, chips and pills.

It is of course possible that China will find ways to become a Superpower despite its failings. But if it is tripped up, and it may way be, India has the potential to fill the Superpower role.

Of course all of these assumes a bi-polar world with only two superpowers. Its more likely we will have a multi-polar with several great powers (see Europe, 1815-1945). In that light we should look closely at all the other candidates.

Russia's size and resources mean it will be wealthy one day, if it ever cleans up the corruption and cronyism.

Europe needs time, lots of time, to finish integrating before it can look outward. But it is already wealthy enough to afford the costs of superpower status if it so wanted.

Brazil, has the resources and population just like Russia, it simply needs to develop economically.

Also don't forget:


Japan, it won't stay pacifist forever.

Korea, reunification will make it a bigger player.

Iran, democracy would make it stable, oil could make it rich.

South Africa, it should lead that region.

Nigeria, it could be the Iran of Africa.

Canada, yes you read right, I said Canada. I predict Canada could (if the stars align) be the wealthiest country in the world in GNP per capita by 2050. It has more oil than Saudi Arabia*, has the US market right next door and American style entrepreneurship, doesn't have the costly superpower burden of the US, has a growing immigrant community with strong business ties to China and India, along with historical connections to Europe, ethnic and social peace, a low crime rate. And Canadians actually value intellectuals unlike the "Red States". Look out world, the Canucks are coming!


Anyway, it might be time to brush up on your Hindi
... or Tamil, or whatever.



*Most of this is the Tar Sands and Oil Shales, not old fashioned liquid crude, but you can still mine this stuff for profit.

[fortyseven]

I know a little Tamil; she's quite pretty.

[Othniel]

The Eu is just a bunch of old countries clutching for their dead power, If Isreal can push all the Arabs and Muslums from Asia Minor it would be them...

I would count out a minor nation having a revolution, or a commonwealth nation surpassing their motherland to gain a...higher status. Australia, Brazil, Sudan (I'm serious too, they need a complete reversal of power), an Eastren Europain Nation, or the world won't last two hundread years...

[Thande]

India's in difficulties at the moment because of being surrounded by Chinese allies (Pakistan, Burma, Bangladesh, and probably soon Nepal. :( ). There are also Chinese contacts with Iran, the -stans and of course Russia. As for the EU, I think it'll take somekinda massive shock for them to come out of isolation and realise that if you want to be a superpower you need a big stick as well as soft speech.

[Aussey]

It should be the US...as I must say the United Kingdm of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is THE current superpower.

[MerryPrankster]

Brazil could be a superpower, as could Argentina. Both had active nuclear programs once upon a time and Argentina used to be one of the top 10 economies on Earth.

Thing is, in their present condition, I don't think that their economies could sustain that for very long.

[Thande]

:confused: Much as I'd like to believe that, how are we the current superpower? Just because we can hit the enemy rather than our allies...

[Bulgaroktonos]

Difficult to say. I think we are going to see the rise of three semi-superpowers in the next 50-75 years

China and India number 1 and 2

Russia (if Putin or men like him continue to run Russia for the next few decades) at number 3.

America will remain a superpower, likely the strongest in terms of military and economic strength (if only by a slim margin economically), but it will become increasingly incapable of projecting its might. The current US focus on "small-wars," will lead to a reduction in the size of conventional forces, and an increase in special forces, a few highly integrated armored divisions, larger airforce and naval air arm. This will create armies not suited for major conflict, i.e. w/China, but will make the US virtually invulnerable to attack from the other superpowers while at the same time making it virtually impossible to effectively strike back (without nukes of course).

I don't see the EU building up. From what I've learned in the various books and courses on the EU and basic economics, the EU either needs major fiscal reform (even more than the US), and quickly, or its going to face problems. As Russia develops (taking economic advantage of the growing split between the US and EU that they help to foster whenever they can), Russia is going to need Europe less and less, the US will continue an icier relationship, China and India will do the same, and the EU will be regulated to a status at which they are already, economic stagnation and the major players in the world aren't really going to pay them much attention....

Russia is never going to integrate with the EU. Only one "group" in Russia trusts the West at all. That's what I classify as the Liberals. The rest, realists, nationalists, and great power advocates, do not trust the West, and basically set their policy to keep the west from doing anythin not in Russia's interests. The Great Power Activists are consistently working to split the US and Europe apart on issues (i.e. Iraq). Depending on who ultimately wins out with Putin and his successors (which right now seems to be the realists w/a hint of GPA), we aren't going to see "cooperation" with the West, we're just going to see what Russia wants. Russia is never going ot bend over backward or really bend at all to do anything they don't see as not in their interest and in their means to prevent. That said, China is rapidly coming up on the radar. Many Russia politicians and think-tankers are rapidly shifting the focus of their fears, as many realize, that in reality, barring nuclear retaliation, if China wanted Siberia, Russia could do, more or less, nothing about it.

India and China are interesting. I think they have unfinished business that may well have to be settled before either becomes a true "superpower." Given US economic interests in both countries, we stand to make a tidy profit, as does Russia....

So much for the End of History.