Jutland: Worst Case Scenario for the British

[Anaxagoras]

With a POD no earlier than the morning of May 31, 1916, what is the worst case scenario for the British at the Battle of Jutland. Barring ASBs, if everything that can go wrong for the British does go wrong, what would the result be?

[ironduke]

The British might (maybee) loose two more battlecruisers @ two or three battleships.Result the britsh still win .

[Tom_B]

The underexplored POD for Jutland is Hipper's torpedo attack on 5th BS. It occurred at a poor time as the turn around from HSF did double service as an effective torpedo evasion. Had Hipper waited until after the turn he might well have caught one of the QE's with a fish. Also those QE's evading torps would've been slowed a little at the start of the Run to the North.

So pick a QE and have an exploding torpedo hit which is not by itself fatal but does knock 4-5 knots off her speed. The question then becomes does the lamed BB get left behind (putting the RN in the position of Hipper at DB with Blucher) or does 5th BS and Beatty fight to save her? If the latter things could get very ugly.

[Chengar Qordath]

1: HMS Lion is not saved at the last minute, and explodes like many other British battlecruisers did. HMS Tiger and HMS Princess Royal also suffer lucky hits to the forward magazines and explode (Fairly plausible; IIRC they took more hits than some of the ships that did explode).

2: HMS Warspite is sunk when their steering gear malfunctions (happened in OTL) and German fire is concentrated upon it to great effect.

3: Jelliecoe's attempt to cross the T on the German fleet dramatically, leaving him in a position for Scheer to actually manage to do so to his fleet instead. None of the British Dreadnoughts are sunk in the action, but many of them suffer extensive damage from multiple heavy hits. Once this is done the German fleet withdraws, with the British not pursuing due to rapidly fading daylight.

So, at the end of the day we have a clear German victory, but not one that cripples the British Navy. Still, the Germans have only lost one capital ship (Lützow's fate remains as per OTL) and in return have all but annihilated the British battlecruisers, sunk one of the vaunted Queen Elizabeth class dreadnoughts, and many of the surviving ships have taken a pounding.

Jellicoe is promptly sacked when he returns to port, quite possibly the first of many to suffer that fate. Meanwhile, the German fleet is sure to take on a more aggressive role in the war than they did OTL post-Jutland; instead of the very marginal and expensive victory of OTL we have a fairly indisputable German victory.

[Susano]

Result the britsh still win .

Ehem? From what timelines are you posting?

[Chengar Qordath]

The British might (maybee) loose two more battlecruisers @ two or three battleships.Result the britsh still win .

Er ... the British didn't win the battle in OTL, and if they lose two more battlecruisers and three battleships that's nearly a tripling of their capital ship losses. In other words, a devastating defeat.

[Shimbo]

I was under the impression that the consensus was that Jutland was a strategic victory for the British even though it was tactically a draw or even a minor defeat. The British remained in control of the North Sea and the German fleet never really ventured out of port again. Although the British lost more capital ships, they could afford it as their fleet was bigger and they had more build capability. Also, the damage to many of the German ships was severe despite not being enough to sink them.

IMO the Germans could have done much better if they had the benefit of hindsight (always nice). IMO they were somewhat in awe of the Grand Fleet and a lot of their battle plan was based more on not getting in a fight with it, e.g. the battle about turn maneuver, which IIRC had no equivalent in the RN. In fact IIRC their shells, range-finders, communications, fire safety and night fighting abilities were better than the RN's.

How to get a PoD where the HSF seeks to engage the GF I don't know.

Finally, another PoD in the battle itself might be Jellicoe ordering the GF to deploy to the west rather than the east as in OTL. I'm not sure what effect that would have had.

[Anaxagoras]

IMO the Germans could have done much better if they had the benefit of hindsight (always nice). IMO they were somewhat in awe of the Grand Fleet and a lot of their battle plan was based more on not getting in a fight with it, e.g. the battle about turn maneuver, which IIRC had no equivalent in the RN.

Their general strategy was to create a situation in which the entire High Seas Fleet could engage only a portion of the Grand Fleet and destroy it, thereby evening the strategic odds.

In fact IIRC their shells, range-finders, communications, fire safety and night fighting abilities were better than the RN's.

Very much so.

Finally, another PoD in the battle itself might be Jellicoe ordering the GF to deploy to the west rather than the east as in OTL. I'm not sure what effect that would have had.

It would have caused the fleets to draw together more quickly, the result being that the deployment might not ave been completed by the time the two fleets were in range of one another. It also would have meant that the British would have been silhouetted against the sun rather than the other way around, making German fire easier to direct. Finally, it would have resulted in a missed opportunity for the British to get between the Germans and their bases.

[Riain]

I could see that the Germans could do a bit better during the battle, perhaps sinking another captial ship or two, and damaging a few more. But the worst thing would be if the RN, late in the day as they searched for a fleeing HSF, to run into one of the minefeilds that were strewn liberally around the area. Perhaps the Germans could lay a new one during the battle itself. That could really screw the GF, losing even more capital ships, perhaps the HSF could come out and finsh off some crippled ships and even capture a damaged one and tow it back to port.

[Prem_Rack]

Er ... the British didn't win the battle in OTL, and if they lose two more battlecruisers and three battleships that's nearly a tripling of their capital ship losses. In other words, a devastating defeat.

It was the Germans who retreated because they were facing destruction, thought

[Anaxagoras]

It was the Germans who retreated because they were facing destruction, thought

After inflicting substantially heavier losses than they sustained and successfully escaping a potentially fatal British trap.

[PMN1]

This is what R D Layman has to say about the possibilities in his book Naval Aviation in the First World War, Its Impact and Influence:


To suppose a decisive German victory on 19th August is to enter the realm of fantasy, but if disbelief can be suspended the potential consequences could have been staggering to contemplate. An immediate result would have been the end of the British blockade. The High Seas Fleet could have broken out into the North Sea. The battlecruisers might have raided the Atlantic trade routes – an idea that had been presented and endorsed by Hipper in late 1914. It is conceivable that consideration might have been given to the even more radical (and controversial) proposal advanced in 1915 by Korvettenkapitan Wolfgang Wegener, a HSF staff officer, that the Faroe, Azores and Cape Verde islands be used as fleet bases.

With the breaking of the blockade, direct trade with the US could have been resumed in German hulls. Thus there would have been no need for the submarine campaign, which became such a major factor in the American decision to enter the war. There would have been no German industrial sabotage in the US nor the anti-US intrigues revealed in the Zimmerman Telegram. The end of the blockade would have permitted the resumption of food importation, thus ending the food riots that by the end of 1916 had erupted in more than thirty German cities, preventing a portion of the more than 760,000 civilian deaths attributed to blockade related causes by the end of the war and maintaining home-front morale.

[Anaxagoras]

This is what R D Layman has to say about the possibilities in his book Naval Aviation in the First World War, Its Impact and Influence:

To suppose a decisive German victory on 19th August is to enter the realm of fantasy, but if disbelief can be suspended the potential consequences could have been staggering to contemplate. An immediate result would have been the end of the British blockade. The High Seas Fleet could have broken out into the North Sea. The battlecruisers might have raided the Atlantic trade routes – an idea that had been presented and endorsed by Hipper in late 1914. It is conceivable that consideration might have been given to the even more radical (and controversial) proposal advanced in 1915 by Korvettenkapitan Wolfgang Wegener, a HSF staff officer, that the Faroe, Azores and Cape Verde islands be used as fleet bases.

Not sure what he's talking about. The Battle of Jutland took place on May 31-June 1, 1916, not August 19.

[General Zod]

This is what R D Layman has to say about the possibilities in his book Naval Aviation in the First World War, Its Impact and Influence:


To suppose a decisive German victory on 19th August is to enter the realm of fantasy, but if disbelief can be suspended the potential consequences could have been staggering to contemplate. An immediate result would have been the end of the British blockade. The High Seas Fleet could have broken out into the North Sea. The battlecruisers might have raided the Atlantic trade routes – an idea that had been presented and endorsed by Hipper in late 1914. It is conceivable that consideration might have been given to the even more radical (and controversial) proposal advanced in 1915 by Korvettenkapitan Wolfgang Wegener, a HSF staff officer, that the Faroe, Azores and Cape Verde islands be used as fleet bases.

With the breaking of the blockade, direct trade with the US could have been resumed in German hulls. Thus there would have been no need for the submarine campaign, which became such a major factor in the American decision to enter the war. There would have been no German industrial sabotage in the US nor the anti-US intrigues revealed in the Zimmerman Telegram. The end of the blockade would have permitted the resumption of food importation, thus ending the food riots that by the end of 1916 had erupted in more than thirty German cities, preventing a portion of the more than 760,000 civilian deaths attributed to blockade related causes by the end of the war and maintaining home-front morale.

Not to mention the fact that if the British had attempted to re-enforce the blockade at this point, it would have required rather more heavy-handed treatment of US merchant shipping, which combined with the lack of German submarine warfare and sabotage held good potential to swing US public opinion decisively toward intervention on the CP side, repeating the 1812 scenario but with an infinitely stronger USA. The American public just need to be moderately PO with the British Navy to remind that irredent Canada still mightly beckons, add the right blunder from the British (in their panicked frenzy to re-enforce an ever-desperate blockade, they bungle the stop of a US ship and lives are lost) and a DoW might be coming...

[Grimm Reaper]

Jutland was a defeat for the Germans.

The British lured them out with a portion of the Grand Fleet for the entire High Seas fleet to engage, then set sail with the rest of the Grand Fleet.

As soon as the Germans learned this their entire operation consisted of running screaming back to port...and never set sail again.

Strategically a gigantic victory for the British as the Germans never again enjoyed the strength relative to the British as they did at Jutland.

The blockade held and the Germans never threatened British naval dominance again in the war, makes a few lost ships suddenly seem a much more reasonable price to pay.

[NHBL]

In any war situation, things can go HORRIBLY wrong without ASB intervention.

Suppose that the weather broke right, and the airships spotted the Grand Fleet, yet were not spotted. Worst case here...Grand Fleet is in cruising formation when the Hoscheseeflotte finds it. Things can go very bad, so long as you accept that it's a low probability timeline.

Loose the Battleline, Britian looses the war. Commerce raiding still won't be easy...Britian has so many cruisers. But IF Germany controls the North Sea, it gets VERY bad. Channel raids, anyone?

[General Zod]

In any war situation, things can go HORRIBLY wrong without ASB intervention.

Suppose that the weather broke right, and the airships spotted the Grand Fleet, yet were not spotted. Worst case here...Grand Fleet is in cruising formation when the Hoscheseeflotte finds it. Things can go very bad, so long as you accept that it's a low probability timeline.

Loose the Battleline, Britian looses the war. Commerce raiding still won't be easy...Britian has so many cruisers. But IF Germany controls the North Sea, it gets VERY bad. Channel raids, anyone?

True, but not even need of them. Without the blockade, no starving of the German populace, their morale will hold, American intervention will not happen (at least, not on the Entente side), which means the Germans will eventually bleed the French white, beyond any possibility for the British to plug the holes.

[PMN1]

Not sure what he's talking about. The Battle of Jutland took place on May 31-June 1, 1916, not August 19.

Scheer tried repeating the raid to lure parts of the Grand Fleet into traps and the High Seas Fleet sailed again on August 18th - a report from Zeppelin L13 sent Scheer off after a phantom fleet and saved him from coming face to face with a Grand Fleet that was stronger this time compared to the High Seas Fleet than it was at Jutland - 29 battleships and 6 batlecrusiers vs 18 battleships and 2 battlecruisers and further away from home.

[Chengar Qordath]

Jutland was a defeat for the Germans.

The British lured them out with a portion of the Grand Fleet for the entire High Seas fleet to engage, then set sail with the rest of the Grand Fleet.

As soon as the Germans learned this their entire operation consisted of running screaming back to port...and never set sail again.

Strategically a gigantic victory for the British as the Germans never again enjoyed the strength relative to the British as they did at Jutland.

The blockade held and the Germans never threatened British naval dominance again in the war, makes a few lost ships suddenly seem a much more reasonable price to pay.

Or ... you could say that the British laid an ambush for the Germans, which the High Seas Fleet detected and escaped from while inflicting far heavier losses on the British than they suffered. I have a hard time accepting the claim that an operation that achieved none of its stated objectives and resulted in far heavier losses to the British than the Germans is somehow a "Gigantic Victory."

Now, back on topic ... Since the thread specified the worst case scenario for Britain I would say we should combine all the things that plausibly could have gone wrong happening; therefore:

1) Britain loses more battlecruisers. Lion was lucky to survive in OTL, and having one of the shells that hit the Tiger and/or Princess Royal strike the front turret and trigger another explosion rather than hitting other location on the ship as per OTL is certainly plaussible.

2) Warspite destroyed when their steering gear malfunctions; if we want to be really sadistic have the malfunction result in it colliding with another one of the Queen Elizabeth classes.

3) Grand Fleet turns west rather than east, resulting in the two fleets switching positions compared to OTL. This might well result in Germany managing to Cross the T on the British (the British managed it several times in OTL) which combined with the silhoutte effect of the setting sun is going to put the British in position to be heavily hammered.

4) The Grand Fleet attempts to pursue the HSF when it withdraws, and ends up running into a minefield.

I doubt we could see the Grand Fleet destroyed or even suffering a decisive amount of damage; OTL Jutland proved that Dreadnoughts could take an incredible amount of punishment without sinking. Winning Jutland might actually end up being worse for Germany in the long run, as it might give them a dangerous overconfidence that results in a more aggressive policy that could lead to more major naval battles with the British. A second battle against a still larger British Fleet that has learned from the errors they made at Jutland is not likely to end well for Germany.

[PMN1]

I was under the impression that the consensus was that Jutland was a strategic victory for the British even though it was tactically a draw or even a minor defeat. The British remained in control of the North Sea and the German fleet never really ventured out of port again.

The High Seas Fleet came out again in August and Scheer was planning a September (IIRC) raid but bad weather kept the Zeppelins down.

They came out as late as April 1918 to attack a Scandinavia-UK convoy that was being covered by the 2nd Battlecruiser squadron and the 7th Light Cruiser Squadron.

The Germans sortied the 1st Scouting Group (Battlecruisers) and the 1st, 3rd and 4th Dreadnought squadrons plus two light cruiser and 4 destroyer flotillas. The first the Admiralty knew about it was when the Germans had to break radio silence after Moltke suffered serious engineering problems (a British sub had spotted them but thought they were British). This delay also wrecked the chnaces of the Germans catching the convoy which was just as well for them as the Grand Fleet came out with 31 battleships, 4 battlecruisers, 2 cruisers, 22 light cruisers and 85 destroyers.

Moltke was hit by a single torpedo from a British sub whlist being towed home.

[chris N]

If the High Seas Fleet inflicted greater loses on the British Home Fleet and suffered less loses itself then it would be a victory. It needs to be brought to everyone's attention that there would be a political effect to the German's destruction of so many capital ships. It might have caused the people to question the war and possibly have brought down the government of the United Kingdom.
Remember war is not only a military but a political struggle.

[zoomar]

If the High Seas Fleet inflicted greater loses on the British Home Fleet and suffered less loses itself then it would be a victory. It needs to be brought to everyone's attention that there would be a political effect to the German's destruction of so many capital ships. It might have caused the people to question the war and possibly have brought down the government of the United Kingdom.
Remember war is not only a military but a political struggle.

True, but it is necessary to remember that in OTL, Germany considered Jutland a victory, and Britain's initial perception that they lost. Unless the HSF managed the near destruction of the Grand Fleet - enough that the balance of seapower was clearly and almost permanently reversed - I don't see the political fallout as sufficient to lead toward Britain leaving the war. Britain's industrial capacity was such that it could have eventually replaced Jutland losses with new construction, while Germany was unable to complete virually all of the ships begun before Aug 1914, and brought no new designs to completion. To have a major effect, Germany would have had to follow it us with further major sorties into the Channel or Atlantic Approachesd to demonstrate to the British public the total defeat of their navy.

[Chengar Qordath]

A major naval defeat could have interesting effects upon Britain's warmaking policies, as it would likely result in resources being shifted away from the army to replace lost ships and upgrade existing ones. A weaker BEF could have all kinds of interesting effects upon the Western Front.

[The Dean]

The worst case would have been for the battle cruisers not to have blown up then the German fleet escaping with the "battle turn". The belief in the battle cruiser design would have led to the continuation of dubious designs and practices.

[miketr]

HMS Marlborough lost to progressive flooding day after the battle from a Torpedo Hit
HMS Warspite sunk by HSF gun fire when her helm jammed during the Battle
HMS Lion sunk when at 16:00 a 12” hit causes munitions fire in Q turret; the following explosion sinks Beatty’s Flagship and kills him along with most of her crew. Of course this can only improve the BC Force with Beatty removed in the mean time their will be some chaos before Rear Admiral O.de Brock on Princes Royal can assert control. In the mean time HMS Indefatigable is sunk at 16:02 as historic. My gut instinct is that Admiral de Brock may give serious thought to breaking off the action at this point with two KIA’s in such short order. Since everything is to go wrong for the British the BC Force continues the Run to the South.

The Run to the North is the best chance for a true disaster to strike. Beatty’s failure to keep Jellicoe informed and to integrate Evan-Thomas’ 5th Battle Squadron into his command caused all sorts of problems. So have the end of the Run to the South and the Start of the Run to the North go worse for the RN. Any ship that is lamed here is going to face the wrath of the entire HSF. Of course for this to happen you can’t kill Lion.

Beyond the above having the HSF stumble into the GF during the evening is a possibility. Night fighting is something the HSF was far better trained and equipped for. It would be a chaotic brawl but that offers the best chance for a crushing result but the Germans would also be damaged too.

Adding Warspite and Lion to the KIA total that the Germans know about and Marlborough which only British know about would have effects. I doubt Scheer joins the USW faction and as a result USoA entry is pushed off for some time. In the mean time there would chaos in the UK with the damage.

No matter what the distant blockade remains in force as geography mattered as much if not more for that. Especially with the HSF / 1st Scouting Group in the repair shop for so long afterwards.

Michael

[Ferdinand Koenig]

I was under the impression that the consensus was that Jutland was a strategic victory for the British even though it was tactically a draw or even a minor defeat.

Of course. The German navy was basically neutralized after that battle; to call it a defeat is ludicrous. Its not the battle that determines whether it was a victory or a defeat; its the effect the battle has. War ain't a violent athletic contest; its a political struggle. British control of the seas was greatly advanced by the Battle of Jutland, irrespective of whether the Germans were said to have technically "won" it in a narrow, tactical sense.

[Chengar Qordath]

Of course. The German navy was basically neutralized after that battle; to call it a defeat is ludicrous. Its not the battle that determines whether it was a victory or a defeat; its the effect the battle has. War ain't a violent athletic contest; its a political struggle. British control of the seas was greatly advanced by the Battle of Jutland, irrespective of whether the Germans were said to have technically "won" it in a narrow, tactical sense.

Saying that the German fleet was "neutralized" is a gross mistatement; the High Seas Fleet was still every bit as dangerous as it had been before Jutland. Claiming that the British won the battle because after Jutland the Germans never had their very expensive navy engage in a suicidal offensive against the much larger British navy strikes me as rather odd reasoning.

[Douglas]

To end the arguing, I think it's safe to say it was basically a draw.

[santosza]

No but if the 6th topedo had hit, it could have damaged Adrimal Jelicoe's ship and destroyed CnC temporaliy in the battle. Small thungs can change the course of battles.