japan, germany, and italy isot to 1939.

[papal duke]

modern japan, germany, and italy are isot to 1939.

so what happens?

[admkenshin]

The Axis of Freedom! Well, except Italy, but nobody cares about them anyway.

[papal duke]

The Axis of Freedom!
ironic isnt it?:p

[admkenshin]

ironic isnt it?:p

History is ironic. That's one of its defining qualities.

[Admiral Canaris]

Would modern Germany annex Austria, Prussia and the Sudetenland? Or are they too politically correct?

[CalBear]

No war. Mao and Stalin are in a spot of trouble.

We all start driving Japanese cars a few decades earlier.

One problem will be oil, for Japan especially. The Japanese ecomomy uses more oil in three days that the 1939 version did in a month.

[admkenshin]

No war. Mao and Stalin are in a spot of trouble.

We all start driving Japanese cars a few decades earlier.

One problem will be oil, for Japan especially. The Japanese ecomomy uses more oil in three days that the 1939 version did in a month.

On the other hand, Japan now has more to bargain with. They also know of the oil fields in Manchuria. Of course, the entire worlds production might not be enough to feed the japanese, italian and german economies to 100%.

For Japan at least, they can with rationing probably cut oil usage in personal transportation down to 1/10th of current level, likely more. Just kill long distance buses and flights, and use more trains instead. Privately owned cars aren't really necessary to use all the time, and some city buses can probably handle cuts in their schedule.

The big problems will be ships, power production and petrochemistry. These can't be cut back at as much, but I don't know how much of oil usage these constitute.

I do think, however, that the situation is manageable. These will be some though times ahead, though.

This deserves a timeline!

[rottengreekfire]

Would modern Germany annex Austria, Prussia and the Sudetenland? Or are they too politically correct?
Maybe Prussia. I don't think so with Austria and the Sudetenland, they would probably just send in the army to root out Nazis.

[Kaiser Kris]

Would modern Germany annex Austria, Prussia and the Sudetenland? Or are they too politically correct?

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say 'not expansionist enough'. :D

Since it's 1939, Germany would already grow considerably on its present borders (although facing a huge problem with the backwards economy in East Prussia, Pomerania and Silesia). As for expansionism, I don't really think it's in the cards, although they might raise a fuss over Danzig.

Austria might be a 'wait and see' based on what the Austrians think- they might be awfully eager to join this new superadvanced German state that instead of being a violent and repressive Nazi regime is democratic and peaceful, yet more powerful than any other state in Europe militarily.

I think that the Sudetenland and Alsace-Lorraine (the remaining areas of major ethnic German contention) would just be no-goes.

[Warringer]

Germany... Hmmm...

Considering our dear Chancellor Merkel, who is Eastern German, I doubt that Germany will be very pro-Soviet. She will also make sure that the rest of the world will know that we are democratic.

Most of the Ecos are going to get downed politically with the lack of cheap external coal to fire our powerpants, resulting in massive rebuilding of the coal industry.

Nuclear Powerplants are going to have a comeback, even with the recent problems in two reactors and Asse II.

Oil... Well, with rationing we are going to hold out with our strategical reserves for a few month, while rapidly going to deploy oil rigs in the North Sea and known German oil wells.

Militarily, the Bundeswehr will crush any Nazis in Preussia with ease and a smile on their faces and try to integrate those parts of 'Nazi Germany' into the FRG. Poland, Austria and the Sudetenland will remain untouched with the BND routing out Nazis outside of Germany.

However I guess the police will have problems with Neo Nazis.

I guess the Bundeswehr might also help Poland in the case of a Soviet invasion, and as result take out the Polish military junta of that time to replace it with a democratic government.

Italy?

They'll just have business as usual and be distrated by the latest change of government/mafia problems/football scandal.

Japan will be in deep trouble, especially considering their dependence on extrenal resources and the number of Japanese soldiers outside of Japan.

I later years the world will be at the economic mercy of both Japan and Germany.

Especially Germany as we have the largest export economy in the world. We produce for the export... :p

[thor2006]

What if the 1939 UK, France, Soviet Russia and USA decided to go to war agianst the ISOT countries? They will probably see them as a threat economicaly and politicly?

[admkenshin]

I later years the world will be at the economic mercy of both Japan and Germany.

Especially Germany as we have the largest export economy in the world. We produce for the export... :p

While I agree with you that Germany and Japan will rule the world, doesn't Japan export more? Of course, Japan also has a large internal market that could buy all the expensive high tech stuff, to keep corporations investing in research. Exports are going to be mostly low-tech products for now.

So, will we see a bipolar world between Germany and Japan, or will we actually have a somewhat peaceful, united world?

One of the earliest flashpoints will definitely be the Soviets, and the question is how to tackle this. Still, Japan and Germany would probably be rather united in this approach.

The second problem would be colonial asia. Germany might here favour a process of slow democratization, while the Japanese would probably prefer independence now, and screw the europeans. Japans own colonial empire would probably see some drastic actions as well, with an independant Korea not too implausible.

Japan would also prop up a friendly government in China, but neither Chiang or Mao are very likeable, so they'd need another candidate. When there's a stable chiense government, Manchuria would probably be repatriated.

Germany and Japan might further clash on the issue of Tibet.

In the end we might see some political conflict between Japan and Germany, as to how to handle asia. Germany would probably favour the pragmatic slow route to independence, and a forgive and forget attitude toward the colonial powers, while Japan might want a faster process, with immediate independence (although a large number of advisors would 'assist' to prevent corruption and such), and perhaps even some apologies from the colonial powers. They had to do it, after all...

[Bosemacher]

What if the 1939 UK, France, Soviet Russia and USA decided to go to war agianst the ISOT countries? They will probably see them as a threat economicaly and politicly?


To quote Randy Neuman,

No one likes us-I don't know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
But all around, even our old friends put us down
Let's drop the big one and see what happens

Boom goes London and boom Paree
More room for you and more room for me

------------------------------------------

Meanwhile back at the ranch.

Which date in 1939? If you mean Sept 7 Germany is already at war with the UK, France and Poland.
I will for the sake of argument you mean January 1, 1939.


Germany:
East Prussia, Silesia, Austria and the Sudetenland all have ethnic German majorities who consider themselves German citizens. In addition a substantial portion of the 1939 Wehrmacht is deployed in these areas. In any plebiscites these area would vote to remain part of Germany. Merkel needs the cooperation of the Wehrmacht to accomplish denaziification.


Eventually the status of Danzig. West Prussia and Polish harassment of ethnic Germans will become a political issue.


Italy:
Berlusconi would be thrilled regaining the Italian colonies.


Japan:
Japan will seek to disengage from the war in China. Manchuko and Korea are likely to remain client states for the near term. Japan may seek to create Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere through economic rather than military means


All three countries vast amounts of resources compared to 1939. There ability to produce high value products should provide them with a positive balance of trade. A short term problem is lack of shipping to feed their eeccomies.


Note:
Both Germany and Italy a significant number of nuclear warheads under the NATO nuclear weapons sharing program. Japan has the capability to become a nuclear power at will.


Warning:
Life looks different when your are the only one with a stick. Witness the aggressive behavior of the USA after the end of the cold war.

[bookmonkey786]

Assuming Jan, 1, 1939. Nobody wants to go to war except maybe the USSR. Chamberlain is in charge in UK so not likely to have much of a problem there. Asia the US really not interested in a war and doesn't have that much of a problem with Japan no enough for major action.The US doesn't stop selling oil to Japan in light of the new government, and with all the US armed forces based in Japan putting in a good word for them there could be a great deal of commerce between the 2 soon.

Out side the ISOT countries the US is next best off. All 3 ISOT had close ties with US and will seek to recultivat those ties. The forces based in Germany and Japan will be a big boon to the US making them a match for even the ISOT. The biggest boon will be the carrier battlegroup based in Japan wich will make the US a major Naval power. Especialy if Japan agrees to help supply them. That Forces there will put in a goodword for Japan and help relations.

[DuQuense]

Italy just got the Libyan Oil Fields:D

[Warringer]

Assuming Jan, 1, 1939. Nobody wants to go to war except maybe the USSR. Chamberlain is in charge in UK so not likely to have much of a problem there. Asia the US really not interested in a war and doesn't have that much of a problem with Japan no enough for major action.The US doesn't stop selling oil to Japan in light of the new government, and with all the US armed forces based in Japan putting in a good word for them there could be a great deal of commerce between the 2 soon.

Out side the ISOT countries the US is next best off. All 3 ISOT had close ties with US and will seek to recultivat those ties. The forces based in Germany and Japan will be a big boon to the US making them a match for even the ISOT. The biggest boon will be the carrier battlegroup based in Japan wich will make the US a major Naval power. Especialy if Japan agrees to help supply them. That Forces there will put in a goodword for Japan and help relations.

It depends whether the carrier group was in port during the ISOT, nut essentially I'd see the US forces in Germany and Japan being very useful.

Another thing to consider it the middle east.

Without the 'Endlösung' and the liberation of Concentrations Camps in the not ISOTed parts of Germany, followed by denazification at large, there might not be many Jews wanting to go back to Palestina. If they want, Germany will try to make integration into easy for the Jews and the Muslims so that conflicts won't come up or won't be as violent as it is OTL. The same goes for the problems with fundamentalists. Knowing what went wrong during the last fifty years that caused the AQ problem will allow Japan, Italy and Germany to handle the problem before it even pops up.

Found this one on Germanys Economy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Germany).

As for Tibet. AFAIK Tibet is still an independent nation in 1939, so it won't be much of an issue.

[admkenshin]

Knowing what went wrong during the last fifty years that caused the AQ problem will allow Japan, Italy and Germany to handle the problem before it even pops up.

Actually, solving the AQ problem shouldn't be that hard. They rely on being able to recruit people for their cause, and often for suicide missions. While you would always be able to find a few, logic dictates that to get as many as in OTL, there needs to be a base for recruitment, mainly poor and disillusioned young men who have perhaps lost their families and view the only way to fight back to be terrorist attacks.

Just make the people of the middle east happy, and voila, no toilet gang :D.

[alt_historian]

For Japan at least, they can with rationing probably cut oil usage in personal transportation down to 1/10th of current level, likely more. Just kill long distance buses and flights, and use more trains instead. Privately owned cars aren't really necessary to use all the time, and some city buses can probably handle cuts in their schedule.

...

I do think, however, that the situation is manageable. These will be some though times ahead, though.

This deserves a timeline!
They managed in Cuba (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period)... :-)