I'm intrigued by the idea of a US without a civil war. One question that comes to mind is what slave states as of 1860 would have begun the process of emancipation over the next few years.
From what I've read its pretty hard to find much evidence of emancipation about to happen on its own in most of the states. In no states that I'm aware of were there vigorous state legislature debates on ending slavery, since Virginia in the 1830's. Kentucky had a constitutional convention in 1850 to discuss slavery but instead of weakening it, the convention actually strengthened it.
In Delaware however slavery was in fact on its last legs, with only about 2,000 slaves left in the whole state, vs 17,000 or so free blacks. With easy emancipation laws, plus a now decades long experience with a majority free black population, it truly was only a matter of time before slavery was over de facto if not de jure. I believe that sometime by 1870 or so Delaware would have officially abolished slavery, as by that time the amount of slaves left, if current trends continued, would have been only about 1,000 or less.
Missouri was the most significant slave state that would have seen political efforts to end slavery in the 1860's era I believe. There were Republican members of the state legislature, congress, etc. by 1860, and assuming European, predominately German, immigration continued unabated without a civil war, Missouri would have become more and more Republican (or whatever form anti-slavery politics would have taken without a civil war). Also, with Kansas statehood an accomplished fact by 1861, Nebraska coming online in the 1860's as well, Missouri would now have free states to its west, east and north. Its relatively small slave population would have been the perfect laboratory for experimental abolitionism, starting out with liberalization of emancipation laws, compensated emancipation and other measures.
Maryland would have been another finalist, with its 50% free black population, and like Delaware a decades long experience with a mass free black population. While the state legislatures of the 1840's and 1850's hadn't done anything to move toward total emancipation, perhaps with a cooling off of political passions (lets say after the South and slavery had survived an entire term of President Lincoln without the sky falling or the world coming to an end), the gradual dying away of slavery in Maryland would have received new impetus. However, if I had to predict, I'd say Delaware would be the first abolitionist state, followed by Missouri.
From what I've read its pretty hard to find much evidence of emancipation about to happen on its own in most of the states. In no states that I'm aware of were there vigorous state legislature debates on ending slavery, since Virginia in the 1830's. Kentucky had a constitutional convention in 1850 to discuss slavery but instead of weakening it, the convention actually strengthened it.
In Delaware however slavery was in fact on its last legs, with only about 2,000 slaves left in the whole state, vs 17,000 or so free blacks. With easy emancipation laws, plus a now decades long experience with a majority free black population, it truly was only a matter of time before slavery was over de facto if not de jure. I believe that sometime by 1870 or so Delaware would have officially abolished slavery, as by that time the amount of slaves left, if current trends continued, would have been only about 1,000 or less.
Missouri was the most significant slave state that would have seen political efforts to end slavery in the 1860's era I believe. There were Republican members of the state legislature, congress, etc. by 1860, and assuming European, predominately German, immigration continued unabated without a civil war, Missouri would have become more and more Republican (or whatever form anti-slavery politics would have taken without a civil war). Also, with Kansas statehood an accomplished fact by 1861, Nebraska coming online in the 1860's as well, Missouri would now have free states to its west, east and north. Its relatively small slave population would have been the perfect laboratory for experimental abolitionism, starting out with liberalization of emancipation laws, compensated emancipation and other measures.
Maryland would have been another finalist, with its 50% free black population, and like Delaware a decades long experience with a mass free black population. While the state legislatures of the 1840's and 1850's hadn't done anything to move toward total emancipation, perhaps with a cooling off of political passions (lets say after the South and slavery had survived an entire term of President Lincoln without the sky falling or the world coming to an end), the gradual dying away of slavery in Maryland would have received new impetus. However, if I had to predict, I'd say Delaware would be the first abolitionist state, followed by Missouri.
Those three states, and in that order (Delaware, Missouri, Maryland) are the only real contenders. Had slavery been weakened earlier on, and had Virginia as a result decided to end it in the 1830s, I'd say that would be the start of a gradual abolitionism, to be concluded around 1900. Yeah, that's right. Even with a much weakened institution of slavery, I still reckon the deep south would hold onto it for a good long time. (More of a bad long time, really.)