Marcus Lives!

407
In our timeline, Britain rebelled against the Western Roman Empire after calls for soldiers left the island undefended against raiders from Ireland and Saxony. The local Roman army elected a leader to usurp the throne of the Western Roman Empire and claimed loyalty to him. This man went by the name of Marcus. Shortly after he was proclaimed emperor, however, an aristocrat named Gratian put into play a scheme that put him onto the supposed throne. He was shortly thereafter killed and replaced by Constantine III, a marvelous leader who routed the barbarians and became co-emperor to the Western Roman Empire. Soon after, he was killed by Roman military reaction.

Due to subtle quantum vibrations, Marcus remains the Emperor of Roman Britain, by routing out a scheme put into play by Gratian. One of the urban aristocracy of Britain, Gratian put into play many of the plots necessary to move the hearts of the Roman army stationed there to rebellion. However, it was Marcus, a charismatic soldier, that was proclaimed emperor in a vital meeting that he was unable attend due to weather.

Pulling more strings, he desired to put into play yet another coup by the army to depose of Marcus. However, one of his underlings decided against working with Gratian after a rash show of anger towards his wife who stumbled on some of their dealings. This collaborator went to the proclaimed Emperor of Britain and revealed the plan.

Meanwhile, hearing news of barbarians laying waste to Roman defensive works and crossing the Rhine, Emperor Marcus decided to send a premature army to deal with them. Through a series of political moves, Gratian found himself involved in a suicide attack against the barbarians. He dies soon later.

This courageous move against the barbarian invaders proved extremely popular with the army, and solidified Marcus' seat of power.

In a battle against the Vandal army, King Gunderic, just having succeeded his father, dies. The Vandals shortly after elect Geiseric, Gunderic's half-brother, as his successor.

With the appearance of Sarus, lieutenant of Stilicho and head of the Roman armies sin the region, Marcus continued to hold onto power by deciding to make a push against Sarus' forces and taking Gaul. Under general Constantine, Sarus' army was pushed into the Alps. Sarus was killed by an arrow during the attacks. His army continued without him through mountain passes controlled by the Bagaudae peasant insurgents. Without Sarus' leadership, the army was unable to buy passage, and provoked the Bagaudae to fighting. The fleeing armies cut their way through the Bagaudae, leaving a bloody trail, both sides depleted.

Marcus secured the Rhine frontier, after ridding Gaul of Sarus, and garrisoned the passes that led to Italy. Armies are sent to protect Britain to aid against the attacks of Niall of Nine Hostages, the raider-king of Ireland.

408
In March, Emperor Marcus made Arles his new capital, and sets forth to fortify his lands and rid it of the barbarian menace.

Roman General Flavius Stilicho is in a quickly degrading situation. Estrangement between eastern and western courts of the Roman Empire began to provoke a civil war. (Arcadius did not die in 408 as in OTL, and thus, the conflict does not diffuse). He proposes to use the forces of Alaric I, King of the Visigoths, to enforce the claim of Emperor Honorious to the prefecture of Illyricum. Alaric I demands payment to desist from war in a threatening manner, and as such Stilicho sends him a sum of 3,000 gold pieces. The Visigoths remain behind the Julian Alps.

Meanwhile, jealous imperial courtiers who had schemed to rid Rome of Stilicho through winning the ear of King Honorius fall on setbacks, and are unable to accomplish their goals in a timely fashion.

Emperor Marcus, listening to the strategems of his general Constantine III, becomes fearful that cousins of the emperor Honorius might lead a retaliation against the British usurpers in a pincer movement with Stilicho. He sends Constantine to deal with this problem. The cousins of the throne are defeated and captured. Spain is annexed by Emperor Marcus, and garrisons are built in the Pyrenees.

Stilicho builds an army to deal with the usurper Marcus from Italy, but sees the war as costly with little benefit. Instead, he focuses on the situation with the Eastern Roman Empire. He directs the assassination of Anthemius, who was holding the throne for Emperor Arcadius through sheer will for peace. With the death of Emperor Arcadius only a week and a half later, in his sleep, the Eastern Roman Empire is left without a real leader.

The assassination is seen very quickly as the result of Gothic mercenaries. Imperial plotters have what they need to get Stilicho executed, and Emperor Honorius orders his execution. Stilicho resists, and wins support from many senators and the military. This causes something of a small civil war. Stilicho leaves with a large army and sends word to King Alaric to join him in Northern Italy. King Alaric, who had been moving slowly around the coast to Dalmatia, turns around to meet his old enemy and friend.

With this 'betrayal' by Stilicho, there was a persecution of barbarian foederati in Italy, in which their wives and children were slain by Roman soldiers. A force nearly 35,000 strong flocked to Stilicho's banner in far northern Italy to return to Rome and take revenge upon the cowards.

In November of 408, a vast army stood before the walls of Rome and, though they could have begun a takeover of the city by force, decides to starve the great city. Former General Flavius Stilicho stands beside King Alaric I of the warlords and numerous vengeful barbarian foederati.

409
Vandals, Alans, and Suebi break through Marcus' garrisons and invade Spain in early May. With Roman power there depleted, no land grants are given to any of the barbarian groups. The Vandals settle Hispania Baetica and the Alans take the western land of Lusitania and Carthago Nova. The Suebi settle in Gallaecia. Marcus began to build his forces to retake the peninsula.

In the late summer of 409, Saxon pirates raided Britain. They were turned back by the remnant army on the island with significant losses. Marcus found the popular opinion of his subjects was that of unconcern for the barbarians, now bottled up in the Iberian peninsula, and cries for vengeance against the Saxons. Emperor Marcus sent envoys to the barbarians of Iberia and gave them large land grants as foederati, if they stayed true to his new Empire. By this time, diplomats from the Roman Empire under Honorius had come to seek aid against the seige of Rome, and offered foederati land as well. But their demands for soldiers were met with scorn from barbarian kings, who desired a strong military in this time of unsettled chaos. The Alans, Suebi and Vandals sided with Marcus.

In the spring of 409, massive armies waited outside of Rome. Emperor Honorius had done little to stop them, and bided his time. Knowing that indecision at this point would only yield massive losses, a coup took over loyalist forces, capturing and deposing Honorius. The Senate and associated members assumed power.

In the Eastern Roman Empire, news had come of the troubles to the west. Pulcheria won the support of the government to initiate a takeover of the Western Roman Empire. With Honorius imprisoned or executed, Pulcheria believed that the Eastern Empire had the right to assume power over its lands. She also had the ulterior motive of uniting Christianity. Envoys are sent abroad while an army is organized to take Illyricum.

In the summer months, Stilicho and Alaric had reached an agreement on their plans. Alaric supported Stilicho as the new Emperor of the Western Roman Empire, while the Visigoths would gain control of the majority of Gaul once it was reconquered. This confirmed, Stilicho orders an entrance of Rome. With seige machinery ready to blast their way through Roman walls, citizenry inside the city revolt and open the doors to the invaders. It is a peaceful invasion (with half as many casualties as in OTL) and at the end of the year the city claims Stilicho Emperor of the West.

Outside of wartorn Rome, however, the outer territories of the Western Roman Empire did not desire to bow down to an Arian Emperor, and side with the Senate and what they call the New Republic of Rome.

***

Suggestions, comments? Hastily written, hastily researched, but nevertheless what I hope to be a long and thorough ATL stretching into the current years.

It's a very good start. I would ask for a map if possible. I would say continue with it.

On another note: my first post of the new year!

Stilicho would not attempt to be Emperor as he was not legally eligible. Thats why none of the barbarians tried it in OTL. It was the same thing with the Pope. Conquerers didn't attempt to claim the position for themselves, just install their own puppet or abolish the position.

Oh yeah, it was Stilicho's son that he wanted to put on the throne... Awesome, thanks.

409 Fixes
* In the summer months, Stilicho and Alaric had reached an agreement on their plans. Alaric supported Stilicho's son Eucherius as the new Emperor of the Western Roman Empire, while the Visigoths would receive adequate spoils and gain control of the majority of Gaul once it was reconquered. With seige machinery ready to blast their way through Roman walls, citizenry inside the city revolt and open the doors to the invaders. It is a peaceful invasion (with half as many casualties as in OTL) and at the end of the year the city claims Eucherius, son of General Flavius Stilicho, Emperor of the West.

410
The Senate stationed in Ravenna quickly brings out troops to secure their land, focusing on northern Italy, while shying away from the Gaul border. Inciting Romans to fight for the name of Christianity, a good amount of support appears for a 'Holy Roman Republic' as it is now called.

In Illyrica, Pulcheria and the soldiers of the Eastern Roman Empire stormed through cities, rallying others to abandon the crumbling Western Empire and its heathen king and join the stalwort Catholics of the East. Some large battles with barbarians were fought, but otherwise it was an easy campaign. The Romans of Illyrica had seen little authority expressed by the Western Empire, and eagerly sided with the East. Envoys reached Ravenna, and both being eager Catholic crusaders, a peace and alliance is made. Borders are set with Illyria, and soldiers sent to help.

Meanwhile, Stilicho and Alaric are in power at Rome. Stilicho mobilizes immediately and decides to make a tour of Southern France; he sees it important to make sure the ports stay loyal and ships don't abandon the Empire. Representatives meet cities all over Southern Italy to attain assurances of loyalty. He gives commands for soldiers to march and hold the border with Senate-controlled Northern Italy. Finally, Stilicho sends Alaric and his barbarian army along the eastern coast northward to prepare in case there became need for a two-front attack against Ravenna.

Envoys from the Western Empire under Stilicho manage to make it to the courts of the King of the Allemanni. The barbarians of the kingdom of Allemann are of the most ruthless sort, and were calmed only by the sight of treasures hauled from Rome. These diplomats arranged a crude treaty, and bought out the Allemanni to remain non-aggressive to Rome, and to begin a crossing of the Rhine to attack Gaul and the rebel garrisons there. The barbarian-king agrees and immediately assembles his horde and makes a concentrated attack on Gaul.

In Arles, Emperor Marcus issues a decree, that with Honorius fallen from power, there is no hope for a true Western Roman Empire. The prefecture of Gaul, including Britain and Hispania, are to become the lands of the Gallian Empire, seperate from the Roman Empires to the east and all of their dealings. Nothing is said of Roman North Africa under the prefecture of Gaul, or the Balearic islands. As such, when ships loyal to Emperor Eucherius dock at ports in the Balearic islands, they side peacefully with the Western Roman Empire.

Gallian soldiers and ships are built up for a campaign to rid Europe of Saxony and their pirates. Barbarians still roam the inner lands of Gaul, but much land is given, and foederati are accepted well in Marcus' empire. When Allemanni barbarians storm garrisons and cross the Rhine in the fall, however, a new, more dire threat appears. Soldiers are redistributed and fight a tough battle in the highland border with the Kingdom of Allemann, the first true test of the new Empire.

In the winter, Emperor Marcus makes a call for the Vandals in Hispania to send aid, in return for ships and shipbuilders. The remarkable King Geiseric, a young visionary who had led his people well in establishing a kingdom in the Iberian peninsula, sees this trade as a fine opportunity. Vandal soldiers are immediately sent on their way to Arles.

In the winter, the Holy Roman Republic (though it contains no Rome) is declared with a new offensive that reaches the Mediterranean coast, cutting off Alaric in northwestern Italy...

411
King Gunther of the Burgundians finds the Allemanni encroaching upon his territory. Both ruthless peoples, this quickly leads to a retaliation. The Burgundians use this period to expand their own lands, and as such the two kingdoms fight an offensive against one another. Meanwhile, in the late spring, reinforcements arrive on the Eastern Front from the Vandals, and the Gallians are able to push back the barbarians to the Rhine and reman the garrisons there, a substantial success.

Being cut off from the rest of the Empire by the Holy Roman Republic, Alaric sends his armies to the east to reinforce his escape path should he need it. With soldiers controlling the land, Alaric finds a small ship on the coast and sends it to Rome to bring news to Emperor Eucherius and announce that the pincer attack would have to happen now.

The message is slow in coming, and it is nearly three months before Stilicho and his staff discovers that Alaric I has begun the offensive. In northwestern Italy, Alaric has pulled off a few successes, but has found himself stuck in conquering Genoa. Stilicho scrambles for an army, and marches out to aid. The city is taken in the late autumn, and a valiant quick push forces the Republicans back. However, the general was unable to do such before Alaric I is slain by assassins. The throne of the Visigoths goes to Ataulf, Alaric's half-brother.

412
Cyril of Alexandri becomes Patriarch in Alexandria.

King Ataulf celebrates taking the throne of the Visigoths after returning to Rome and marrying Galla Placidia, half-sister of former Emperor Honorius.

Friction appears between the new King Ataulf of the Visigoths and General Stilicho. The alliance between Alaric and Stilicho was unique; they had been cooperative rivals and enemies. Ataulf had taken the rivalry between Alaric and Stilicho as much more serious, and set himself against Stilicho. Soon after taking the throne, he left again to Rome to wed and to take more spoils. When confronted with Stilicho to return to the North and await the conquest of Gaul, Ataulf says that the Visigoths have had enough of waiting on Stilicho. Most of the foederati that had joined the Visigoths after the foederati slaughter abandons the army after this betrayal, either joining Stilicho or going to live civilian lives once again.

King Ataulf is given sanctuary, nevertheless, by Emperor Eucherius, and he leaves for the south on what seems to be a mission irrelated to military at all.

General Stilicho, meanwhile, makes a huge effort in creating garrisons on the new border with the Holy Roman Republic, and is extremely frustrated by the departure of the Visigoths, a severe blow against his new Empire.

413
War between the Burgundians and the Allemanni fizzles out in the summer. No side had won a good deal, they had just lost more territory to the Gallians and found their hold on even the right side of the bank weak. While the Allemanni did have a considerably larger army, their invasion across the Rhine had depleted their forces and left them open to the attack the Burgundians staged. They found themselves matched, and at a stalemate.

Emperor Marcus continues to garrison, reform, enlist soldiers, and shape his Empire. The majority of Vandal soldiers return to Hispania, along with Roman shipbuilders and a (very small) fleet of ships. Marcus hopes and intends that they use this naval advantage to win power over the other foederati kingdoms in Hispania. Autonomous in all but word, the Emperor finds that the Iberian peninsula could be lost at any moment if some conflict were to appear to seperate the barbarians. The Vandals seemed to be the most willing to work with the Gallian Empire, and so Marcus chose them over the rest of the lot. He also had a vague hope that the Vandals would reassert power over Roman North Africa and the Balearic islands.

King Geiseric did envision a way he could use these new ships to gain power, and set a long-term plan into action...

Meanwhile, King Ataulf and the Visigoths several 'claim' a dozen ships and sail to Sicily, taking port in Catania. The Visigoths promptly attack the city of Catania, and after a few months of seige, they sack the city, burning down buildings and taking treasures. They put all of this and a good amount of food and sail to North Africa, where they take harbor in some small port for the winter.

414
Pulcheria proclaims herself Empress of the Eastern Roman Empire.

Rioting in Sicily over the atrocities seen in Catania by King Ataulf, who was supposed to be in-arms with Stilicho, father of the Emperor. The island had little Romanization to it, and had kept its unique culture. Thus, it was easy for the Sicilians to declare themselves apart from the Western Roman Empire. The Senate of Sicily is declared, and in turn the Sicilian Republic.

Stilicho is informed of this insurrection, and adds it to his list of problems. The Holy Roman Republic has announced something of a stalemate, but there is nevertheless the job of garrisoning and preparing for the event of invasion. Furthermore, Allemanni raiders, betraying the non-aggression treaty, had been leaking in through the most undefended northern border, which needed to be handled. The entirety of Southern Italy was still unsure of whether to truly align themselves to Emperor Eucherius, though he appeared to be a stronger ruler than Honorius. One thing was for certain, and that was that Stilicho could not reconquer Gaul. Even before he had seen it as too costly a conquest, and now he admits that Gallia would have to fall by some other force, not that of the Western Roman Empire.

As such, envoys meet Emperor Marcus and declare peace between the two Empires. In return for their independence, Emperor Eucherius asks them if they could keep the barbarian kingdoms east of the Rhine weak, and deal especially with the Allemanni menace that had turned upon them.

A navy is organized to set sail and reconquer Sicily, as their food exports was extremely important to feed the peninsula.

King Ataulf begins the construction of an army and seige machinery, with the dream of doing to Carthage what his half-brother did to Rome.

415
The Jews are expelled from Alexandri by the new Patriarch.

Emperor Marcus continues to build an army, in defense of barbarians, as well as hoping for a conquest to weaken the Saxon, of which whose raids have become quite a menace. However, in the meantime, hoping to come within good relations with the Western Roman Empire, he fortifies the Southern Rhine border, and even takes over parts of the eastern bank. The Allemanni are in a terrible mood all over the kingdom, and though they need a period of peace to recoup, their king keeps barking for revenge and conquest.

Due to the return of attacks, Burgundy declares war against Allemann once again. In this, Emperor Marcus sees promise, and meets with the Burgundian king. In the autumn months, the king accepts the status of foederati with a good amount of pay, and land on the western bank of the Rhine. Arms, armor, and war machinery is given to the Burgundians to aid in the assault against Allemann. This furthers two aims of Emperor Marcus, to reach across the Rhine in hopes to attack Saxony, to gain new territories, and to keep the Allemann down as per agreement.

The Holy Roman Republic lands a navy at Ancona, as well as beginning a land invasion concentrating on the eastern Italian coast. Stilicho is distracted from reconquering Sicily, and begins the defense of his lands.

Questions? Comments? Suggestions?

Also, tell me if the map does something weird to your browsers. As in, it stretches out the post. If so, then I will put the map in this post to counter against that. I can't tell since I just got a new high-res computer (sweet!).

It's good. I like how the different empires are shaping up. I thought Burgundy was actually where OTL's Burgundy was. What's the system of government within Marcus's Empire?

Darkest90 said:

Questions? Comments? Suggestions?

Also, tell me if the map does something weird to your browsers. As in, it stretches out the post. If so, then I will put the map in this post to counter against that. I can't tell since I just got a new high-res computer (sweet!).

Click to expand...

Like the colors, but the map does stretch out the post. Oddly enough, it didn't the first time I saw the map.

What exactly is the Holy Roman Republic?

The Senators were among the last people in the Roman Empire to become Christians; there might be some issues with them identifying themselves with Christianity (isn't the republic "holy" b/c they oppose the Arian Emperor?).

It's good. I like how the different empires are shaping up. I thought Burgundy was actually where OTL's Burgundy was. What's the system of government within Marcus's Empire?

Click to expand...

Thank you! The borders of Burgundy shifted a lot over the ages, so yes, they are in a different location. The Empire of Gallia is trying hard to imitate that of the Roman Empire, but it isn't hard to see that the government is being carried by Emperor Marcus and his military generals. However, this isn't as much of a problem, because the people are glad that finally the military is taking an active approach in protecting them, instead of just stealing soldiers.

I can imagine there will be significant changes in the government in the coming years. One such change already is that foederati are given much more freedom, and the foederati kingdoms are almost entirely autonomous. While the peoples originally banded together because of the barbarian invasions, as long as the barbarians are kept pacified very few raise any questions. I see the Empire as very unified right now, maybe just because they are still high off the fumes of independence.

Like the colors, but the map does stretch out the post. Oddly enough, it didn't the first time I saw the map.

Click to expand...

Really? Okay, I will make changes. Thanks.

What exactly is the Holy Roman Republic?

The Senators were among the last people in the Roman Empire to become Christians; there might be some issues with them identifying themselves with Christianity (isn't the republic "holy" b/c they oppose the Arian Emperor?).

Click to expand...

Yes, I believe I have not given too much information about the Holy Roman Republic. The Senate and northern militaries performed a coup together against Emperor Honorius, impatient because of his reluctance to do anything about the invaders marching on Rome. They were able to oust him because they named him a heretic and unworthy of the throne, and... having to side with their previous claims, made a movement to free the Roman Empire from heretics, mainly Arians. This attracted refugees and Eastern Roman officials, and by 415 I think that the majority of the Senate is Catholic due to these changes.

The government in the Holy Roman Republic is modelled after Catholic codes and ancient law from the previous Roman Republic. It, too, is under a good deal of control by the military (Flavius Constantius III is among them, I presume) and will undergo government changes very soon to get a stable nation going.

BTW, anyone know where the Huns are at this point of time, borders, ect?

Looking good – keep it coming (of course, I’m always a sucker for a TL that features a free and independent Celtic nation).

I have two comments (one is something Dominus already brought up). I could be wrong, I didn’t check my facts before making this post, but I seem to remember Marcus absorbing more of the indigenous cultural aspects in regards to government, dress, etc. in order to ingratiate himself with northern Gaul and Briton. Though I liked your comment on Marcus being more accepted than say the Emperor in Roman because he was actually protecting the people and not just culling warriors from the villages, towns, and cities.

The Huns (depending on which you mean) are milling about around Pannonia – fighting the Alans and other Germanic tribes. You have Attila showing up soon as well.

To address your comment you left in Gallic League; we all echo each other. I mean, history might be eons old but there are still only so many scenarios that can be played out (names, places, and timing may change but cause and effect still apply – unless you have crab-people land out of nowhere and try and take over the earth, that would certainly throw a wrench into the order of things).

Hmmm... crab-people land... I think you may have something there, Tynnin.

You may be right about Marcus incorporating indigenous aspects, I wonder how that will play in the government? The near-autonomous barbarian kingdoms in Hispania could be seen as a great representation of this, with chieftains and what-not continuing to hold a majority of the power. Unfortunately, this might not lead to a very stable Gallian Empire.

I guess I'll have to do more research...

416
Krakatoa undergoes an eruption. Vivid sunsets are seen throughout the year; the offset is that the entire world has to endure a hard winter and summer famine.

The war between the Western Roman Empire and the Holy Roman Republic fires up once again. The landings at Ancona and the new offensive conducted by the Holy Roman Republic hit the Empire hard, testing its military ability considerably. General Stilicho holds his territory, at best, entrenching the lines and keeping his infantry on the battlefront. A huge part of his strategy includes mobilizing the entirety of the Imperial Roman navy and raiding Republic waters, cutting the supply line and waiting until the bulk of the fleet arrives for a mass take over.

Meanwhile, with a huge, weakened front to be protected on the eastern coast, the Republic launches several incursions along the Po River to punch into the west. Defenses are breached, and with Allemanni included, the northern part of the Western Roman Empire becomes a hostile, contested area. Envoys arrive at the courts of Emperor Marcus of the Gallian Empire, desiring aid. Marcus is frustrated, as these are events that will once again slow his conquest of the Saxon barbarians and other marauders. He decides to organize construction along the English Channel, so that fortifications and ships can be present for the defense of the territory. With this development in place, his growing army leaves to help Stilicho against the Republic. It’s a slow war in the Alps and abroad, in which many barbarians are encountered, most of them hostile. Nevertheless, some friends are made, and migrate to the Gallian Empire or merely help against enemies of Gallia. Many Gallians and especially the numerous generals of Emperor Marcus see this assistance as a military drain. Marcus pushes them through sheer charisma, declaring to all that the Holy Roman Republic might not be as peaceful a neighbor, and that are without allies if they leave the Western Roman Empire alone.

Sicily falls on a hard crop year, but the movement is still strong. Few attacks have been made on their soil, and all have been repelled. This gives the Sicilians a greater vigor, and they already feel as if they have won their independence.

Burgundy and Allemann fall into stalemate once again, though Burgundy has made better land gains with more modern equipment.

A noticeable amount of the Jews expelled from Alexandria make a slow move west, towards the ‘Heretic-King’ that they hear so much from in the Western Roman Empire, hoping for a better life under a less strict government. Some are killed for this effort, but a good amount finds their way to Western Roman North Africa and beyond.

Starting in the late autumn, imitating almost exactly the movements against Rome, King Ataulf stands at the walls of Carthage with a barbarian army, intent on reliving the moments of his brother and taking the city for himself. Some differences exist here, including a huge amount of extra stores in Carthage for food (as the city was a center for exporting grains) and the local navy. While King Ataulf attempts to use his small fleet against Carthaginian ships, but his knowledge of such warfare is poor at best. Some vessels flee from the barbarian hordes who they are certain will mimic the sack of Rome, but many stay, and ferry food and soldiers into the city walls. As King Ataulf is trying to starve the city, he loses the advantage of surprise and the use of his armies. Carthage builds up its armies by employing foreign soldiers and waits it out through the winter.

Some fleeing ships arrive at Sicilian ports for refuge, of which had been previously ignored due to their rebellion. This helps Sicily in a number of minor ways, as trade resumes as demand from the island opens up huge opportunity for traders, and Sicilian morale climbs to an all-time high.

I'll ask the readers, because I am unsure... do you think that King Ataulf could have taken Carthage with the Visigoths? I envision that only a little more than half of the army is present in North Africa, with the others continuing to loot Southern Italy and make merry. With a good supply line and naval assistance, could Carthage stand against the Visigoths, who in OTL had secured a huge kingdom in Southern France and Eastern Spain?

It is very hard to take a fortified city, even when you out number the inhabitants. Without siege engines, having lost the element of surprise, with Carthage having large food stores and the ability to ship in soldiers – I’m going to say no, even with the Goths (unless the Goth general was a mastermind tactician). Though with the Goths Ataulf may have been able to make war on other cities and so might have been able to draw out the army in Carthage – in that case I would have given old Ataulf at least a 50/50 shot at winning.

Well in OTL they took out Rome... Yeah I would give them 50% as well. Hmmm...

417
West of Carthage, Jewish populations flourish in new locations where they establish new enclaves. The cities and towns they have resettled in are much less Catholic than Alexandria, and thus a great boon to those families.

In the springtime, Stilicho's warships gather for a massive takeover to repel Republican soldiers from the long coastline they have held, culminating in the prize of Ancona, which had been taking in the winter. The ships of the Holy Roman Republic, even raided by Imperial hostiles, maintained good lines of supply to troops.

Stilicho's surge stops all of this. In one week, ships mass and destroy large portions of the active Republican navy. They take suitable losses, but the Empire has the advantage of numbers. Soldiers force themselves in a mad dash to reclaim land and fall upon enemy garrisons. Coastline is reclaimed, and Republican territory is even gained. The Republican ships fleeing from ports at Ancona, it was a quick seige that resulted in two generals captured and executed.

However, soon after news of victory met the ears of the aged, elder general Stilicho, a loss also befell the Western Roman Empire. The Holy Roman Republic, with a huge auxiliary force of Hun mercenaries from Pannonia, forced their way through the western front. The combination of Roman soldiers and Gallian reinforcements could not defend the territory. Generals advising Emperor Marcus convinced that they must fall upon their border or risk an incursion. Gallian soldiers flee allied lands.

The new rising star in the Holy Roman Republic's military, magister militum Mamercus Decius the II, holds the land tightly. Auxiliaries rush northwards from Rome, and make a few small gains in Genoa and other cities, but the land crawls with soldiers. Garrisons are fortified on the Gallian border. The Holy Roman Republic has earned a victory as well.

King Ataulf finds the seige going unsuccessful and not as he planned. He calls all of his forces present for a ruthless takeover of Carthage, using the little seige machinery they have for a small breach that they use to gain access. Carthaginian soldiers rise up against the Visigothic barbarians, a huge number of unarmed civilians die, and the streets become littered with the dead. In the chaos, a fire begins that weakens both Visigoth and defending forces, and kills King Ataulf. The fire is stopped after burning a large swathe of the city, and the seige continues at a slow pace.

After a month, in the late summer, newly named King Sigeric (of the Amali faction within the Visigoths) calls Carthage and surrounding lands his, and begins looting the city like mad, sending treasures eastward to waiting brethren to hoard. The city is weakly held, and there are many uprisings against the Visigoths. Great Carthage would not be held long.

In other news, Pope Innocent dies, and the cardinals elect Eulalius as the new head of the Catholic church. He does not condemn Pelagianism with much vigor, and the movement goes on, with bishops and cardinals continuing to argue over the issue. His biggest decision is the movement of the Church from Rome to the Holy Roman Republic or Constantinople, as he sees the Arian Emperor as a serious blow to the divine right of the Roman Empire. He focuses on these areas, and rarely spends any time at all in the Western Roman Empire.

Many strong Catholics have migrated to the Holy Roman Republic and beyond since the crowning of Emperor Eucherius, an Arian. More moderate Romans (of which is the majority of Catholics) have remained for different reasons. Now, however, more are being advised to move to the north and the Holy Roman Republic. The advent of Pope Eulalius begins small bout of religious hate-crime and a second wave of migration.

In the Gallian Empire, Emperor Marcus makes political changes in the infrastructure, putting into the law many practices and customs of the native Gaulish tribes that are agreed upon. Much executive power he has upon the military is given to the generals under magister militum Constantine III, as he is needed elsewhere.

In the summer, Pharamond, King of the Salian Franks who had led his people past the Rhine into the Gallian Empire as foederati in 413, asks Emperor Marcus for the permission to forge across the Rhine and establish a more independent kingdom among the Rhinelander Franks. The Rhinelander Franks had been beaten several times in battles with other tribes, and had sworn allegiance to Pharamond and his kin if they could bring the protection of the Gallian Empire to their lands.

Emperor Marcus aides King Pharamond with suitable Roman equipment and supporting Roman soldiers. With general Lucius Antius, Pharamond lands on the other side of the Rhine in the early autumn and begins his campaign. They have troubles in the first month and a half of their warring, but when a Rhinelander Frankish army reinforces them in a tight spot, the invasion looks up. By the winter they hole up in newly-constructed garrisons, waiting it out until spring when they can launch a second wave.

Representatives of the Maltese islands meet leaders in the Republic of Sicily and join them as a semi-autonomous Republic of Malta. The two Republics largely operate seperately, but engage each other considerably in trade and military vessels.