WI Saddam Flees Iraq

[IchBinDieKaiser]

3 days before the US invaded Iraq President Bush televised a message to the American people and the world, telling Saddam and his sons to leave Iraq within 48 hours or war would come to Iraq. Well unless you've lived under a rock for the last 10 years, he clearly didn't. What I am wondering is what would have happened had Saddam and his family fled Iraq within the 48 hour ultimatum? Would the invasion still have occurred? Who would take power in Iraq? What would this new regime in Iraq do?

[DakotaG01]

I believe the invasion would've still occurred much along the same lines as there would be parts of the military still loyal and willing to fight albeit not as much.

As for the rest of the questions I have no idea.

[DValdron]

I've heard that this was a serious proposal by Saddam Hussein and the regime. Basically, capitulation and exile. Hussein had enough money socked away that he could have lived comfortably. However, Bush negatived that option.

I can't give a reference for it.

[Unconsensual]

The invasion was going to happen, America was spoiling for a fight even if it wasn't related to 9-11, plus they were too far along militarily to go back. Remember the Bush & Blair Administration were willing to lie to their people in order to obtain "evidence", even when Saddam was disarming his missiles they were still spoiling for a fight.

I can't see the Bush buddies being influenced by the lack of Saddam, this will be used as an excuse to stay in Iraq longer but it'll also hurt the Bush Administration's prestige a bit. There will still be the chaotic American occupation but Saddam won't be able to return to power like the first Gulf War, too many institutions replaced/destroyed.

Like OTL the invasion was still suffering plenty of faults in planning let alone execution.

• There was no credible exist strategy
• It was still planned that the Iraqi army would be disbanded
• No plan for the disbanded army, in fact it may be worse since the possibly of Saddam coming back and influencing the army exists.
• Incredibly slow restoration to normal life in terms of power, water, security, and so on... (still ongoing)
• Poor military administration
• Refusal to let the democratic government in exile take over, instead they choose a puppet counsel based on ethnicity alone.
• Use of trigger happy mercenaries who were given full legal immunity free from military oversight.
• Lack of will to fully commit militarily or economically.

Reminds me of this parody by MAD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcjLEwZqcQI

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by Unconsensual

The invasion was going to happen, America was spoiling for a fight even if it wasn't related to 9-11, plus they were too far along militarily to go back. Remember the Bush & Blair Administration were willing to lie to their people in order to obtain "evidence", even when Saddam was disarming his missiles they were still spoiling for a fight.

I can't see the Bush buddies being influenced by the lack of Saddam, this will be used as an excuse to stay in Iraq longer but it'll also hurt the Bush Administration's prestige a bit. There will still be the chaotic American occupation but Saddam won't be able to return to power like the first Gulf War, too many institutions replaced/destroyed.

Like OTL the invasion was still suffering plenty of faults in planning let alone execution.

• There was no credible exist strategy
• It was still planned that the Iraqi army would be disbanded
• No plan for the disbanded army, in fact it may be worse since the possibly of Saddam coming back and influencing the army exists.
• Incredibly slow restoration to normal life in terms of power, water, security, and so on... (still ongoing)
• Poor military administration
• Refusal to let the democratic government in exile take over, instead they choose a puppet counsel based on ethnicity alone.
• Use of trigger happy mercenaries who were given full legal immunity free from military oversight.
• Lack of will to fully commit militarily or economically.

Reminds me of this parody by MAD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcjLEwZqcQI

Well ,that is what happens when you place the U.S> Military i nthe hands of a band of hyper right wing man-children.

[DValdron]

I don't think that there was anything resembling a genuine democratic government in exile. Not in the sense that there was in WWII.

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by DValdron

I don't think that there was anything resembling a genuine democratic government in exile. Not in the sense that there was in WWII.

I don't know .

What I do know is this.

President Bush wanted his war.

His big showing John Wayne war with tanks and airplanes and soldiers and missles and all that neato stuff.

He never planned how to fund it, he never planned how to fight it, he never planned what would happen when it changed to an occupation, and when that happened he and his little friends, the OTHER Li'l Rascals in the Bush administration GOT BORED so they just went to go do something else.

[adam888]

It would be interesting to see if a President Romney would go to war over Iran as so many of his financial backers seem to want him to do. That might the price he would have to be to get elected President.

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by adam888

It would be interesting to see if a President Romney would go to war over Iran as so many of his financial backers seem to want him to do. That might the price he would have to be to get elected President.

The only people who need the West to attack Iran more than the Republicans, are the Ayatollahs in Iran.

[mowque]

Where would he go?

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by mowque

Where would he go?

I hear Dubai is nice in 2003.

[DValdron]

Originally Posted by SergeantHeretic

I don't know .

What I do know is this.

President Bush wanted his war.

His big showing John Wayne war with tanks and airplanes and soldiers and missles and all that neato stuff.

He never planned how to fund it, he never planned how to fight it, he never planned what would happen when it changed to an occupation, and when that happened he and his little friends, the OTHER Li'l Rascals in the Bush administration GOT BORED so they just went to go do something else.

Succinctly put. And thus, the dangers of giving power to man childron

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by DValdron

Succinctly put. And thus, the dangers of giving power to man childron

Exactly.

Now the same crowd are screaming for a war with Iran.

I wonder if they realize that the only people who want the U.S. or Israel to attack Iran more than them are the Ayatollahs in Iran.

The entire Islamic hardliner's setup is predicated on, "Defending Iran against Western agression" and it's getting pretty tough to hold it together i nthe face of the distressing lack of western agresssion.

[couldawouldashoulda]

wasn't there something about him being offered exile in eritrea? i thought i heard that somewhere back then

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by couldawouldashoulda

wasn't there something about him being offered exile in eritrea? i thought i heard that somewhere back then

I never heard that. Do you know any details?

[serbrcq]

Originally Posted by couldawouldashoulda

wasn't there something about him being offered exile in eritrea? i thought i heard that somewhere back then

Wouldn't be surprising, Eritrea is also an international pariah and one of the few one-party states still around that still admits to being a one-party state. IIRC there was a big stink a while ago because they had a few journalists crucified.

If Saddam did leave and the US invaded anyway, expect a much larger anti-war movement and a one-term George Bush. I can see two options in the short term (because I'm sure the invasion would at least be delayed for a couple days, if only to establish another useful pretext):

a) Somebody more-or-less reasonable like Tariq Aziz might grab the reins, manage to calm everybody down and allow the UN inspectors in again. This is the worst-case scenario for Bush and Blair because now they look like transparent warmongers if they invade again (even more than in OTL)

b) Kurds revolt, Shias revolt, everybody revolts now that the autocrat has packed off to Eritrea or Zimbabwe. Now America and Britain can claim to be restoring order when they move in. It might still result in a stronger anti-war movement but not as much as in case a.

[couldawouldashoulda]

apparently he considered fleeing to eritrea or libya during 91. thought i heard something on tv back in 2003 though that there was an arrangement being made where he and his sons would go to eritrea

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by couldawouldashoulda

apparently he considered fleeing to eritrea or libya during 91. thought i heard something on tv back in 2003 though that there was an arrangement being made where he and his sons would go to eritrea

It would not have stopped or even slowed down the invasion. Facts do not impress people like President BUsh and the Li'l rascals.

[Orville_third]

Hey, don't forget it was Bush who ordered the inspectors out after saying they had "too much time"- and after they were systematically debunking his administration's claims.
Of course, with no Saddam, there will be less organized response after an invasion. A lot fewer soldiers will be killed in the initial assault.
It's very likely that Bush going in could lead to President Dean in 2004, and it would likely lead to other changes. Obama might trounce Clinton easily...and not pick Biden. Both backed the war, after all. Meanwhile, I could see Lincoln Chaffee and/or Ron Paul challenging George W. Bush.