Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat.

[BlondieBC]

August 10, 1914: British PM is informed of the major naval defeat. Initial estimates are 6 Dreadnoughts, 2 Pre-dreadnoughts, 1 Armored Cruiser, and 16 support ships have been lost. Total dead and missing is near 10,000. No German losses are reported. The Grand Fleet and all cruisers have been withdrawn to various fortified ports in the Irish Sea and English Channel. All ports located in Scotland and the East Coast of England are unsafe to use as bases until further notice, except for smaller craft like submarines and torpedo boats. The official assessment is that the Navy can still prevent an invasion, but that the London cannot be defended from sea bombardment without extremely grave risks to the surface fleet. The PM faints. He later reads the written portion of the report that states the blockade of the North Sea has been cancelled, that there is a German cruiser base in one of the fjords of Norway, and that the channel is being mined at Dover.
A few hours later an emergency meeting of the war cabinet is held without the presence of the First Lord of the Admiralty. Initially, everyone agrees fire him and to consider trying him for treason. Later in the meeting, it is decided that this naval defeat must be hidden at all costs, and that the Churchill will be allowed to remain in power for the time being under close supervision. The main body of the Grand Fleet can only leave port with the authorization of the Prime Minister. A panel of admirals not associated with this disaster will review the battle and recommend changes to the naval doctrine and construction plans by the end of the month.

August 11: The Schultze issues a recall order for all U-boats.

August 14: The German Naval assessment of the battle is one U-boat presumed lost. The British Navy is estimated to have lost between 5-8 Dreadnoughts, 1-2 Pre-Dreadnoughts, and 15-25 other ships. The logs from the submarines don't match up, and it is unclear if some subs are sinking previously hit ships or different ships.

August 15: The Kaiser receives the report of the decisive victory. The report of the battle causes almost as many issues for the German Admiralty as the British Admiralty. Positions range from surface ships are obsolete to large surface fleets cannot operate with 100 miles of enemy ports to surface ships can only operate in open waters at full speed to the battle was a fluke. The Kaiser issues an order that the High Seas Fleet cannot leave port without his authorization.

[MerryPrankster]

Now this would be hilarious. Two surprising submarine victories and suddenly neither side is willing to deploy their surface fleets at all?

I'm thinking there'd be an ASW arms race, since both sides have spent lots of money on their surface fleets and would want to get some actual use out of them.

I wonder how the Japanese are taking this? After all, in one of the prelude threads, you've described the Japanese's first attack on Tsingtao being foiled. Perhaps the Japanese think they've figured out a way to handle the situation and it doesn't work as planned?

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Now this would be hilarious. Two surprising submarine victories and suddenly neither side is willing to deploy their surface fleets at all?

I'm thinking there'd be an ASW arms race, since both sides have spent lots of money on their surface fleets and would want to get some actual use out of them.

I wonder how the Japanese are taking this? After all, in one of the prelude threads, you've described the Japanese's first attack on Tsingtao being foiled. Perhaps the Japanese think they've figured out a way to handle the situation and it doesn't work as planned?

So am I on arms race. Seems logical to not lay any new keels for big ships, built many subs, destroyers, and lots of research.

On the Fleet, the Kaiser will not want to deploy his expensive toys, and the British will be terrified of invasion after losing fleet in second battle. Main battle lines may never fight each other. Also, don't see Gallipoli being approved. I may have increased the number of divisions on the western front for the Entente, but hello Ottomans, OPEC to the world.

They have aircraft carrier with fleet. Also, main landing is 100 + miles from port. They also have a lot more small ships per big ship, and their overall war plan makes sense, even in WW2 time frame. Isolate harbor, land outside heavy shore guns. Advance to defenses, pound with 10+ inch artillery.

[MerryPrankster]

Who had an aircraft carrier in WWI?

[juanml82]

Fiction has to make sense, reality does not.

Sigged

(filler)

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Who had an aircraft carrier in WWI?

Japan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...rrier_Wakamiya

[Adler17]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Hermes_(1898)

There was another (which was soon sunk by U-27).

Adler

[BlondieBC]

West Africa

August 27, 1914: Togoland Falls.

August 29, 1914: Belgium plans to invade Kamerun are cancelled, planning begins on an overland assault on German East Africa.

Compared to OTL, an additional 6 merchant ships suitable to becoming long-range raiding ships arrive at Douala and are converted to merchant raiders.

Additional Tonnage Sunk/Captured by Merchant Cruisers for the Month: 12,000.

Total Tonnage Sunk/Captured by U-boats: 15,000.



East Africa

Compared to OTL, an additional 2 merchant ships suitable to becoming long-range raiding ships arrive at Dar Es Salaam and are converted to merchant raiders.

Additional Tonnage Sunk/Captured by Merchant Cruisers for the Month: 5,000.

Total Tonnage Sunk/Captured by U-boats: 18,000.



Pacific

August 16, 1914: A merchant ship converted to a minelayer, and 3 U-boats depart for Hong Kong.

August 17, 1914: The subtender, tanker, freighter and 3 U-boats depart for Yap Island at 10 knots.

August 21, 1914: The minelayer deploys a total of 30 mines in 7 locations, the returns to Tsingtao. The U-boats begin intensive patrols within 75 miles of Hong Kong.

August 23, 1914: Japan declares war on Germany.

August 27, 1914: About 35 miles from Tsingtao, UX-20 spots the approaching Task Force. After radioing in a contact report, UX-20 is forced to submerged by a seaplane. UX-22 and UX-24 move to intercept, and 3 other subs leave port. UX-22 sinks the Kongo with two torpedoes, and then UX-22 is driven of by escorts and a seaplane. The Task Force commader decides to return to Japan, where the convoy crosses the path of the UX-20 which sinks the HMS Triumph.

Total Tonnage Sunk/Captured by U-boats: 50,000.

[MerryPrankster]

Well, that was anti-climactic. I expected a larger naval battle.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Well, that was anti-climactic. I expected a larger naval battle.

Well, i am trying to stay reasonable. With planes in the air in daylight, it is much harder for subs to operate. Also, this fleet was just to begin a close blockade, and the invasion forces is still weeks away. There was no compelling reason to keep taking losses for the Japanese.

I pushed the first battle a bit on the high end of expectations, and i push this battle on the low end. The Germans can't be lucky every time, or the time line ends by mid 1915.

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Well, i am trying to stay reasonable. With planes in the air in daylight, it is much harder for subs to operate. Also, this fleet was just to begin a close blockade, and the invasion forces is still weeks away. There was no compelling reason to keep taking losses for the Japanese.

I pushed the first battle a bit on the high end of expectations, and i push this battle on the low end. The Germans can't be lucky every time, or the time line ends by mid 1915.

Oh, so that wasn't the invasion force.

[Shaby]

I can totally see Japanese learning a bit more on importance of ASW as a consequence of the events in this timeline. Should come handy if they should, you know, find themselves in the war against an enemy hellbent on stiffling their commerce in a war.

Provided of course that Germany still losses, despite best efforts of Prince Henry.

[MerryPrankster]

http://accordingtoquinn.blogspot.com...o-for-new.html

Guess who just made my blog.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Shaby

I can totally see Japanese learning a bit more on importance of ASW as a consequence of the events in this timeline. Should come handy if they should, you know, find themselves in the war against an enemy hellbent on stiffling their commerce in a war.

Provided of course that Germany still losses, despite best efforts of Prince Henry.

IMO, Japan was the only nation that won WW1 in OTL. They traded under 1000 lives for some extra territory, expulsion of Germany from Asia, weakening of Russia, weakening of UK, and lots of war profits. Only Romania or Serbia gained as much, and both sacrifice so much for the gain. In this one, it is hard to see Japan doing worse.

[Reichenfaust]

Hmmm, the British lost 6 Dreads? I don't care about the smaller ships, but is that really plausible, or is that ASB. I honestly do not know the capabilities of the subs right now, so an explanation would be nice. As well, what about the British and American sub development. They would have substantial sub assets now right? Or, with them concentrating on dreads, would they have ignored the sub as a potential weapon(not something they are likely to do with Jellicoe in the Admiralty)

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Reichenfaust

Hmmm, the British lost 6 Dreads? I don't care about the smaller ships, but is that really plausible, or is that ASB. I honestly do not know the capabilities of the subs right now, so an explanation would be nice. As well, what about the British and American sub development. They would have substantial sub assets now right? Or, with them concentrating on dreads, would they have ignored the sub as a potential weapon(not something they are likely to do with Jellicoe in the Admiralty)

It is actually a bit on the low side, IMO, but I kept it low to reduce ASB posts.

The first three dreads were found by a boat in OTL, and a bit better approach by the U-boat could have resulted in three dreads. They were doing live fire exercises without escort. I presume finding a BB firing its main guns is real easy once a ship is with 20 to 30 nm. In WW1, one torpedo would either sink a BB or the ship into drydock for months.

The behavior of the British Fleet is the actual historical behavior, and this is what doomed them. For two days, they sailed in a 120 nm by 90 nm mile box at 14 knots. The surface speed of the U-3 is 11.8 knots and the speed of the U-19 is 15.4. In both OTL and my ATL, the first wave of U-boats sailed past the Grand Fleet without making contact. In my ATL, a second wave find the fleet. In OTL, the Germans decide to keep the second wave to guard the port. You may need to look at a map. The Grand Fleet is midway between Aberdeen and the closest point in Norway. They had 11 U-boats behind them with a speed of 11.8 knots (OTL), if the second wave of ships finds the Grand Fleet, the Fleet is in a middle of a line of 12-16 boats extending from England to Norway. If one assumes the contact is reported, and all the u-boats proceed to the contact, this is the type of results I expect. Remember, by sailing in a box at roughly the same speed as the U-boats, the U-boats can't fail to find the fleet. Also, many of the escorts use coal, which is putting out black smoke.

I have buffed the U-boats, but the buffs are not required for this battle.

[BlondieBC]

This post in redone in post #86, and this post has been left so the comments before #86 make sense.

August 16, 1914: The Admiralty begins a three month plan to reinforce the Grand Fleet with larger ships from the overseas fleets. The first ship to receive recall orders is the Queen Elizabeth from the Mediterranean. The UK to Gibraltar to Suez to India to Singapore will receive secondary priority for ships. The South Atlantic ships are planned to be slowly recalled. A priority will be placed on eliminating German naval bases in the Pacific to free up badly needed warships.

August 17: In a private meeting with the Prime Minister, the Press Secretary tells the PM that the news of the naval disaster cannot be kept secret much longer because of bodies picked up by Norwegian ships and photographs of debris fields. The PM brushes him off.

August 20: The German papers announce a great victory at sea with 7 British dreadnought sunk and over 20 other ships. In Hamburg, after a victory parade, the Kaiser promotes Schultze to Admiral and awards him the Pour le Mérite with Oak Leaves. The crowd wildly cheers. In a private dinner afterwards, the Kaiser ask Von Schultze what he needs to win the war. Von Schultze replies, "Give to Prince Henry and I control of the Navy, and we will starve England into submission."

August 21: English papers quote Churchill saying, "The Kaiser is a delusional fool who can only dream of naval success, and his 'victory in the North Sea' is much ado about nothing."

August 22: At the GHQ, the Kaiser can be heard screaming in rage after reading the quote. He immediately approves a full assault by the High Seas Fleet on England. By 2 pm that afternoon, the High Seas Fleet is at sea with all heavy ships that can maintain a 16 knot pace. The High Seas Fleet will make a straight run towards Scarborough England. When 20 miles from the coast, turn NW on a path parallel to the cost. Two hours later, eighty torpedo boats sail into the foggy North Sea to sweep the seas of enemy ships. At 8 pm, all available U-boats sortie from their base to screen for the High Seas Fleet. The U-boast take a straight course to their screening line running roughly due east of Edinburgh.

August 23, 9:00 am: As the morning fog burns away, a British destroyer spots the High Seas Fleet and reports the position to the British Admiralty. Within minutes, the destroyer has been sunk by the screening ships.

09:10: C-6 spot the HSF due NW at 8 nm, and begins an approach.

09:35: C-5 spots smoke trials of the HSF at a range of 12nm due north.

10:00: The High Seas fleet turns NNW.

10:15: Four D-Class submarines are order to leave the waters around Edinborough to find and engage the fleet. All available ships on the East Coast of England are order to intercept the fleet.

10:30: The PM asked for permission to use the Grand Fleet which is denied.

10:40: The screening destroyers force the C-5 and C-6 to dive. Both submarines will not regain contact with the fleet.

10:54: The lead elements of the HSF begin the bombardment of Sunderland.

12:30PM: The UX-41 spots the D-2, and submerges for an attack run. Twenty-three minutes later, the D-2 is sunk by torpedo.

12:50: All there remaining D-Class submarines can see the smoke trial of the HSF.

12:59: The bombardment of Sunderland ends. Fifteen of the sixteen shipyards are completely destroyed. For several thousand yards from the river, hardly a building remains standing. A uncontrollable fire will consume the remainder of the city. Sunderland has just absorbed the heaviest bombardment in the history of warfare with the HSF shooting 1/3 of its ammo at the city.

1:00: The HSF makes a turn to the NE towards the coast of Norway.

1:10: D-1 realize it can't catch the fleet and heads towards the city to help the wounded.

1:30: The D-3 fires two torpedoes at the SMS Konig which both hit near the rear of the ship. The D-3 is forced to dive to avoid being rammed by an escort. The Konig will sink within two hours.

01:40: The D-4 hits the SMS Lutzow with one torpedo. The Lutzow slows to 10 knots and despite two escorts, will be sunk by another submarine 6 hours later.

August 24: The HSF and screening ships return to port. Due to the fleet achieving surprise and traveling at high speed on unexpected paths, the submarines of the British navy were not able to catch the HSF. Over the course of the battle, the torpedo boats were able to drive all British shipping out of the North Sea south of a line from Edinbourgh to Stavanger.

August 26: SMS Magdeburg runs aground and the Russians recover naval code books.

August 28: No major naval actions in the North Sea.

August 29: Front Page of NY Times has two main headlines, "Grand Fleet Defeated in North Sea" and "Sunderland Massacre".

The British Admiralty realizes it has lost the control of the North Sea and the initiative on the High Seas.

C Class http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_C_class_submarine

Konig http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_K%C3%B6nig

Lutzow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_L%C3%BCtzow

[MerryPrankster]

Ouch. Indeed, ouch.

I wonder what the British revenge will be for this? The High Seas Fleet unloads 1/3 of its ammunition on a British naval construction center and all but totally trashes it?

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

Ouch. Indeed, ouch.

I wonder what the British revenge will be for this? The High Seas Fleet unloads 1/3 of its ammunition on a British naval construction center and all but totally trashes it?

I am open to suggestions. I have been spending too much time on this, so it will be this weekend before I begin work on the next post. The German sea near Hamburg is shallow and mined, so it is hard to directly attack a German city. Enough BB have been sunk to prevent the High Seas or Grand Fleet form leaving port until better escorts are available. I am not sure what the British can do in the short run. Here are some ideas, and issues with them:

1) Attack German Coast - too dangerous.
2) Unrestricted sub warfare by Brits - Don't see it.
3) Take no prisoner policy on land - Hard to see.
4) Pirate Option - Declare all German navy personnel pirates and shoot them. I can see this, but there would be a huge down side.
5) Chemical Weapons - I doubt they have the capacity right now.


There will be some international reaction to the attack, but my understanding of 1910 rules is that the docks are a legal military target. The papers will do lots of evil German stories, but does Wilson even do anything about it? The Germans will argue the British should not have built the city around the legal war target. The British will say look at the Huns. After all, Tsingtao will be bombarded within a few months. Antwerp was hit hard in OTL.

If anyone has any plot twist they like to see, list them. I am too a point in the story where the butterflies have eliminated any naval resemblance to OTL.

[SAVORYapple]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

I am open to suggestions. I have been spending too much time on this, so it will be this weekend before I begin work on the next post. The German sea near Hamburg is shallow and mined, so it is hard to directly attack a German city. Enough BB have been sunk to prevent the High Seas or Grand Fleet form leaving port until better escorts are available. I am not sure what the British can do in the short run. Here are some ideas, and issues with them:

1) Attack German Coast - too dangerous.
2) Unrestricted sub warfare by Brits - Don't see it.
3) Take no prisoner policy on land - Hard to see.
4) Pirate Option - Declare all German navy personnel pirates and shoot them. I can see this, but there would be a huge down side.
5) Chemical Weapons - I doubt they have the capacity right now.

1) they'll be afraid of U-boats, and will hesitate
2) Not Possible. Yet. maybe in a few years time
3) No way. German propaganda will have a field day
4) No way. German propaganda will again have a field day
5) Not enough capcity, German propaganda will yet again have a field day

They effectively can't do anything.

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

There will be some international reaction to the attack, but my understanding of 1910 rules is that the docks are a legal military target. The papers will do lots of evil German stories, but does Wilson even do anything about it? The Germans will argue the British should not have built the city around the legal war target. The British will say look at the Huns. After all, Tsingtao will be bombarded within a few months. Antwerp was hit hard in OTL.

It's a perfectly legal military target. Period. And besides, collateral damage always happens, right?