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Old February 28th, 2004, 09:19 PM
knightyknight knightyknight is offline
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Japanese Invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941

Hello, this is my first time posting at this board. Anyway, I thought of this scenario, and I was wondering if it is plausible. Im sure someone have already thought of this, and please feel free to correct any of my error or just plain slam me.

June, 1941 - Wehrmacht launches Operation Barbarossa and blitz into the USSR
July 1941 - Rippentrop meets with Tojo to discuss an invasion of Siberia. Rippentrop promise after the fall of the Soviets to supply 1 million kl of oil to Japan a year, after the Middle East and Carcausus oil field are secured. (Japan have oil reserves estimate to last till late 1942 without American oil) Tojo agrees and immediately delay all operations in the Southern Pacific. Pearl Harbor attacked delayed till June of 1942.
August 1941 - Churchill and Roosevelt issue the Atlantic Charter.
Early September 1941 - All Japanese offensive operations in China were stopped, and the Japanese Army blitz across the Siberian border from Manchukuo and Sakhalin Island. Main objective was Vladivostok, and the entire Sakhalin Island. Japanese naval ships bombards major cities on the Russian coast. The Japanese had initial success with the invasion, but were stop at the gate of Vladivostok. Russian tank divisions counterattacked and the Japanese line barely held on, and finally stabilized after a few days of good weather for Jap airforce to operate. All diplomatic relations between the US and Japan are stopped.
October 1941 - Operation Typhoon begins. Sakhalin belong to the Japanese, but the battles on main land continue to be a stalemate and draining the Soviet's manpower and resources.
Early December 1941 - Moscow falls to the Nazi and Stalin was killed in the city. The rest of the Soviet Union on the verge of a revolution. Turkey enters the war with the Axis and made a half hearted attack on the Caucausus. Britain declares war on Turkey.
Early January 1942 - Leningrad falls to the Nazis. Molotov establish a new government and end all hostilities with the Axis. A peace treaty slightly more lenient than Vichy was given to the Russian people, which still include raw materials being delivered to the Axis (including Japan). European Axis controls all land east of the Volga, and the Japanese was awarded the entire east coast of the Soviet Union. Japan's honor is finally restored from the defeat she suffered against the Russians in 1939.
Late January 1942 - US begin organizing volunteer units to Europe, and all lend - lease equipment are send to England or China. Japanese troops begin to refit for the future South Pacific campaign. Axis troops in Russia begin refitting for Africa, and summer offensive down to the Middle East.
February 1942 - With new intelligent reports, Pearl Harbor attack plan revised to include the submarine shipyards, and oil storage facilities.
April 1942 - First American volunteer divisions arrive at Egypt to reinforce the British. Hitler was anger by this and order Rommel to be reinforced immediately.
May 1942 - Rommel reinforced, and the Germans and Americans meet at the battlefield for the first time. The bulk of the German army are either transferred to North Africa or Turkey. Japanese oil supply running desperately low.
June 7 1942 - The first order of 200,000 kl of oil was delivered to the Japanese, way less than the Jap expected. Japanese launches sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, US enters WWII; Japanese attack Malaysia, Philippines, Guam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Wake Island. Pearl Harbor was a complete success, most US ships were either heavily damage or sunk. The Lexington and Enterprise were included in the ships that were sunk. The Japanese have destroyed all the harboring and oil storage facilities. All damaged US ships were towed to either San Francisco, San Diego, or Seattle for repair.
Late June, 1942 - Germany invades from Turkey with two armies. One head toward Cairo, and the other head toward Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan. Rommel's army attack from the west, but was stopped by Allied troops at El Alamein. Germany declares war on the US.
Late July 1942 - Egypt falls to the Axis from the attack on both sides, and the Allied troops retreat to Sedan. British Med. fleet redeploy to either India or merge with the home fleet.
Late August 1942 - Germans reached Pakistan and halt the advance at the border of India. All Middle Eastern countries are now either pro-Axis or Axis controlled.
September 1942 - With India in danger, British halt all material support going through India to China. China now stand alone without supports from other Allied powers due to the Japanese blockade.
December 1942 - Japan secure her own resources by controlling all of Asia and the Pacific, excluding Hawaii, Australia, India and China. Germany can now deliver the amount of oil supply as needed by Japan with the new oil field secured in the Middle East. China is on the verge of throwing in the towel...

Will this scenario have work? Will the Allies still attempt a Torch or Overlord with most the Axis forces still intact? Will the wonder weapons come sooner with the Luftwaffe keeping the Allies bombing campaign at bay? Will the Allies throw in the towel before the atomic bomb is ready in 1945?
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Old February 29th, 2004, 01:44 PM
Grey Wolf Grey Wolf is offline
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Well, you can be happy that 46 people have read the timeline Unfortunately, of those 46 I am probably the least qualified to comment ! It was very interesting though.

Grey Wolf
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  #3  
Old February 29th, 2004, 01:52 PM
Matthew Craw Matthew Craw is offline
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okay, I'll make a few, the big problem with most Japan attacks the Soviet Union scenarios is the oil question. I'm not sure the Japanese would be willing to make the kind of gamble you suggest, it requires that the Red Army must be defeated, the entire Soviet Union conquered and all war damage repaired within a year. Not gonna happen, and teh Japanese would at least have had some idea that it wouldn't.

Also, ANY early Japanese success will cut off Vladivostok unless confined solely to the Mongolian border.

I also tend to believe that with the Germans pushing through European Russia Stalin would make only token efforts at defense of anything East of LAke Baikal, leaving the 1941 Winter counterattack to proceed as in OTL. IN the end, the Russians will NOT sacrifice Moscow to preserve Vladivostok.
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Old March 1st, 2004, 04:16 PM
Alikchi Alikchi is offline
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What's the incentive for the Turks to get involved here?
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Old March 1st, 2004, 04:30 PM
Melvin Loh Melvin Loh is offline
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Khalkin Ghol all over again ?

IMHO, the Japs, had they attempted to invade Siberia, would've been faced with a larger-scale rerun of Khalkin Ghol (Aug 1939) in Mongolia, where they got their butts well and truly kicked by Zhukov's Red Army units. The same thing would probably happen again given the inferiority of Jap armour to Soviet.
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Old March 1st, 2004, 05:30 PM
Dunash Dunash is offline
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WI 1938-39 had gone a lot better for the Japanese? Would it have emboldened them in 1941? Or would it have helped the Russians, by making Stalin realise his folly in executing the entire Red army's officer cadre & refraining from shooting the last of his good generals? Five generals of the calibre of Zhukov alive in 1941 could have stymied the Germans massively.
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Old March 1st, 2004, 05:50 PM
Chris Chris is offline
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Drag out Nomonhan (Kaklin-Gol) and you get a 1939 german-soviet war as hitler takes most of poland.

Other than that, I would not expect the japamese to be really effective against the soviets as they suffer from a massive technological disadvantage. If they can hold on long enough for the Germans to win in the west, they'll surrvive. If the USSR lioves though 1942, the russians will go after the japs in 43 and crush them before the US can get involved on the chinese mainland.

Chris
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Old March 1st, 2004, 06:15 PM
Matthew Craw Matthew Craw is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Drag out Nomonhan (Kaklin-Gol) and you get a 1939 german-soviet war as hitler takes most of poland.

Other than that, I would not expect the japamese to be really effective against the soviets as they suffer from a massive technological disadvantage. If they can hold on long enough for the Germans to win in the west, they'll surrvive. If the USSR lioves though 1942, the russians will go after the japs in 43 and crush them before the US can get involved on the chinese mainland.

Chris
Nomonhan didn't actually go THAT badly for the Japanese. Certainly they lost, badly, but overall casualty figures for the two sides were comparable (not equal, but not so far in the Soviets favour that their victory can be considered to have ben easy) and, in the air, the Japanese inflicted a very favourable kill ratio, despite the fact that they had difficulty coping with some of the faster red bombers (by 1941/42 this wouldn't have been a problem)

The Soviet victory owed far more to numerical superiority (which was considerable) than to their advantage in armour and heavy artillery (which was nonetheless a real and important edge).

With EQUAL numbers the Japanese, with far better trained and motivated infantry and officers, could probably go toe to toe with the Soviets of the EARLY forties and either win or, at worst, hold their own.
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Old March 2nd, 2004, 12:38 AM
knightyknight knightyknight is offline
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What's the incentive for the Turks to get involved here?
Turkey have been trading with the Axis until around the last year of the war, and like Sweden, Spain, and Switzerland, the Turks remained "neutral". Actually Hitler tried to talk Turkey into joining the Axis and failed. Turkey and Russia have always been traditional rivals, their most recent battle is Turkey's invasion of the Caucasus in World War I, which ended quite badly for the Turks. If the Soviets were to fall in 1941, I think there is little doubt that with the Nazis at their own door steps that the Turks won't join the Axis and actually grab a piece of Russia for herself with little risk.
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Old January 7th, 2009, 10:30 PM
Baskilisk Baskilisk is offline
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That, and not being surrounded by Germany without fear of invasion. I suspect if Russia falls, Sweden would join too.
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  #11  
Old January 8th, 2009, 07:49 AM
Michele Michele is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knightyknight View Post
Hello, this is my first time posting at this board. Anyway, I thought of this scenario, and I was wondering if it is plausible. Im sure someone have already thought of this, and please feel free to correct any of my error or just plain slam me.
Welcome. Here I go.

The name is Ribbentrop.

The Japanese army in China is not an army that can "blitz".

An attack in September in that region is going to sputter to a complete stop in two months on weather alone. If we add to that the astoundingly bad Japanese logistics and the lack of suitable local infrastructures (read any railroad), the advance onto Vladivostok will stop even earlier. There might be some more hope for a thrust towards the Bajkal, but even there the Japanese won't be making much headway. The Soviets will fight to keep the Transsiberian open there, and happily yield ground elsewhere, it's not as if the Japanese can do anything with that.

At this time, the Soviets have begun the redeployment of the Siberian rifle divisions West, and they continue. As another poster said, they are not going to sacrifice Moscow in order to save Vladivostok. The Soviet winter offensive takes place as per OTL and gives the German their deserved bloody nose.

The Japanese conquer all of Sakhalin. Its oilfields' output was insufficient for the Japanese needs, and the Soviets have carried out extensive demolitions; it will take about a year, and plenty of equipment, to reestablish that insufficient production. Meanwhile, the Japanese ground offensive in Siberia is burning fuel and achieving nothing significant. The US embargo is in place.

The British reinforce Hong Kong and Singapore. The USA reinforce the Philippines. Any hope of a quick conquest of those key positions is gone; anyway, the Japanese infantry that in OTL was committed there begins to get sucked into the Siberian black hole. British submarines begin taking a toll on Japanese slow, defenseless, unconvoyed, unescorted cargo ships, which makes the logistical situation of the Japanese troops in China and Siberia even worse.

After the thaw in 1942, the Japanese renew their offensive and finally take Vladivostok. There they stop, unable to go further. A spate of political assassinations erupts in Tokyo as the IJA has begun suggesting that the oil stocks of the IJN should be handed over for the Go North operation. The IJN complains that it's got fuel for one major operation and lobbies for going South.

The war in Europe goes on as per OTL. In April 1942 German subs sink both a US cruiser and a US hospital ship. These are the tenth and eleventh such sub attacks and they are enough to finally turn the US parliamentary and public opinion in favor of a Declaration of War, which ensues a month later against Germany, Italy and Japan. The Japanese plan for a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor is shelved, since it can no longer rely on surprise. The Japanese launch a campaign against the Philippines, the DEI and the British colonies, all fully alerted, reasonably reinforced, ready to fight delaying actions, and to sabotage any strategic plants about to fall in enemy hands. The Japanese make some progress, but nowhere near as fast and as far as in OTL, and in seven months they are down to their last oil barrel.

That said, for a first post it was above average.
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  #12  
Old January 8th, 2009, 01:19 PM
Tuhachevskey Tuhachevskey is offline
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Only problem for USSR is lend-lease in this case because Soviet force at the Far East is enough to defeat Japan, and so-called "siberian" or "far east" division wasnt pure siberian- substantial part was formed in European russia
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Old January 8th, 2009, 02:30 PM
Michele Michele is offline
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Originally Posted by Tuhachevskey View Post
Only problem for USSR is lend-lease
I don't think so. Lend Lease wouldn't be a problem per se, it would be supplied anyway even though it would start later as far as the USA are concerned.
As to routing, the Central Asian route can be strengthened. Alternatively, if the IJN insists on cutting the Far East run, that isn't necessarily going to Japan's advantage; yet another distraction and fuel consumption for an overworked and overextended force.
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Old January 8th, 2009, 05:52 PM
Metro Metro is offline
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In the OP description he says Japan stopped the war against China in 1941 and then helped the Germans fight the Russians by invading the Russian Far East.

It would not have happened. Japan by fighting in China had destroyed its economy and had become reliant on foreign nations for materials. Seems not all military leaders are economists.

Quote:
Japan entered the China Incident in July 1937 with plans for a three month campaign involving three divisions costing a hundred million yen. By the spring of 1938 the scale of Japan's miscalculation meant that its entire army was readying for indefinite war, twenty new army divisions were being created and 2.5 billion yen had been appropriated. Large scale warfare of this kind made it impossible for Japan to exploit China's economic resources
Quote:
The invasion of China therefore left Japan militarily susceptible to Soviet attack and economically reliant on the west.
Quote:
The Sino-Japanese War of 1937-1945 not only prevented Japan economically exploiting China but was also a major drain on Japan's economy. Japan by 1938 was manufacturing only a fraction of the material and fuel needed to continue war with China. Rubber, tin, wool and wheat were all being imported from outside the yen block. The situation was even worse in strategic resources; scrap metal, copper and oil were all primarily sourced from the west. The fuel Japan could manufacture domestically was reliant on oil concessions from Soviet-controlled Northern Sakhalin, a supply made insecure by Soviet-Japanese rivalry and border clashes at Changkufeng and Nomohan
Got the above quotes from page two from the following article titled: "Japans Economic Expansion into Manchuria and China in WW2":http://www.historyorb.com/asia/japan...xpansion.shtml
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  #15  
Old January 8th, 2009, 10:44 PM
DeathDemon DeathDemon is offline
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Originally Posted by Baskilisk View Post
That, and not being surrounded by Germany without fear of invasion. I suspect if Russia falls, Sweden would join too.
Why on earth would you bump a 5 year old thread?
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12 freaking miles an hour? Patton would have laughed, pissed on it, and left it beside the road as he headed for Germany.
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  #16  
Old January 9th, 2009, 12:52 AM
norm4064 norm4064 is offline
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Maybe because he just found it.

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Originally Posted by DeathDemon View Post
Why on earth would you bump a 5 year old thread?
Maybe because like me he just found it. Your responce is very insulting.
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Old January 9th, 2009, 12:58 AM
Imperator Frank Imperator Frank is offline
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whoa. awesome timeline.
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Old January 9th, 2009, 01:55 AM
DeathDemon DeathDemon is offline
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Originally Posted by norm4064 View Post
Maybe because like me he just found it. Your responce is very insulting.
First of all, there are about new 10 threads per month on this very topic, so bumping a thread that most present members have never even read, and that holds no information that's not in any newer threads, doesn't help anyone.
Second, just what is so insulting about my previous post?

/rant
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12 freaking miles an hour? Patton would have laughed, pissed on it, and left it beside the road as he headed for Germany.
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Old January 9th, 2009, 02:11 AM
norm4064 norm4064 is offline
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For some of us this is new

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Originally Posted by DeathDemon View Post
First of all, there are about new 10 threads per month on this very topic, so bumping a thread that most present members have never even read, and that holds no information that's not in any newer threads, doesn't help anyone.
Second, just what is so insulting about my previous post?

/rant
It may have been old news to you, but too some of us who are new members it is new. Just because you know all about the information does not mean that everyone else does. That is why I found your reply insulting.
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  #20  
Old January 9th, 2009, 03:12 AM
DeathDemon DeathDemon is offline
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Originally Posted by norm4064 View Post
It may have been old news to you, but too some of us who are new members it is new. Just because you know all about the information does not mean that everyone else does. That is why I found your reply insulting.
Not bumping 5 year old threads when there are dozens of newer threads on the same subject is not something exclusive to this board, it is an inherent part of forum behavior.
Anyways, this argument isn't going anywhere. I sure as hell don't want to pretend I'm a moderator, and my comment wasn't meant to be taken as an insult.
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12 freaking miles an hour? Patton would have laughed, pissed on it, and left it beside the road as he headed for Germany.
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