Creative Madness - Fisher's preemptive attack

AdA

According to M. MacMillan, who cites Marder's "from Dreadnough to Scapa Flow" as a source, Fisher did consider the possibility of a preemptive attack to destroy the German High Seas Fleet, only to be told off by the king: "My God Fisher, you must be mad"
But was he?
Could such a move be tempted, and if so when and how?
And if done at the right moment, would it lead to a general european war or in fact prevent one?
Not having seen this topic discussed in my (few) years on this forum, what are your ideas on this subject?
 
MonsooN

MonsooN

I'm sure I've seen a T/L on this, I think it was called Fisher's Gamble or Fisher's Folly. I can't remember who did it, but I think it might have been Onkel Willie.

Surely the British would never commit such an aggressive act without provocation?
 

AdA

MonsooN said:
I'm sure I've seen a T/L on this, I think it was called Fisher's Gamble or Fisher's Folly. I can't remember who did it, but I think it might have been Onkel Willie.

Surely the British would never commit such an aggressive act without provocation?
Click to expand...


The Kaiser was just the man to give the a decent excuse.
German Naval Laws were clearly directed at Britain, and any of the frequent crisis of the period would do.

There is the obvious precedent of Copenhagen, and the threat was taken seriously in Germany.

But acepting the reduced plausability of such a scenario, I was more interested in considering the ideal time and mode of attack for it.
The Japanese surprise attack on the russian Pacific fleet is a possible model, but the scale would be bigger.
 

matzeskatze

Some problems:
- the German Naval Laws were a reaction on the rising status of Germany and rather undiplomatic British comments in time of the Boer Wars
- the German coast is not suiteble for something like a Copenhagen, as the approaches are narow and tidaly influenced
 

AdA

matzeskatze said:
Some problems:
- the German Naval Laws were a reaction on the rising status of Germany and rather undiplomatic British comments in time of the Boer Wars
- the German coast is not suiteble for something like a Copenhagen, as the approaches are narow and tidaly influenced
Click to expand...


Ence the dificulty. If they were based on Lisbon it would be much easier to plan...
 

DaveB

Difficult to see how the High Seas Fleet can be attacked in harbour without using torpedo bombers. Is it possible to delay the start of WW1 until they are available? General opinion seems to be that everyone was spoiling for a fight in 1914 and war will break out PDQ whether or not the attempt on Franz Ferdinand succeeds.

Still, Fisher's Follies designed and built as aircraft carriers, c. 1920? What, and when, was the earliest effective torpedo bomber? Sounds like a possible TL.

Whoops, forgotten about the Sopwith Cuckoo (if I ever knew), and that the RN had a plan to attack the High Seas Fleet in harbour with carrier aircraft in 1918/19. So OTL, the capability was virtually there. If war doesn't break out until later, the pace of development might be slower, though the British were trying to develop air-dropped torpedoes and aircraft to carry them even before 1914. Not sure I've seen a thread for a delayed WW1 on here, but I expect there are some :)
 
Wolf1965

Wolf1965

Donor
Both Kiel and Wilhelmshaven are very hard to attack, especially if you want to do it "out of the blue" with what Fisher had in his cupboard.

Actually it might prevent the US from joining if it were attempted at all.
 

AdA

DaveB said:
Difficult to see how the High Seas Fleet can be attacked in harbour without using torpedo bombers. Is it possible to delay the start of WW1 until they are available? General opinion seems to be that everyone was spoiling for a fight in 1914 and war will break out PDQ whether or not the attempt on Franz Ferdinand succeeds.

Still, Fisher's Follies designed and built as aircraft carriers, c. 1920? What, and when, was the earliest effective torpedo bomber? Sounds like a possible TL.

Whoops, forgotten about the Sopwith Cuckoo (if I ever knew), and that the RN had a plan to attack the High Seas Fleet in harbour with carrier aircraft in 1918/19. So OTL, the capability was virtually there. If war doesn't break out until later, the pace of development might be slower, though the British were trying to develop air-dropped torpedoes and aircraft to carry them even before 1914. Not sure I've seen a thread for a delayed WW1 on here, but I expect there are some :)
Click to expand...


The Japanese attacked Port Arthur at night using Torpedo Boats. I was thinking of a surprise torpedo boat strike followed by coastal landscaping by heavy gun overdose, but not sure how well protected the german bases of the time were against that type of attack.
To be preemptive, it would be a few years before WW1, otherwise war is likely to start as OTL and the political fallout would undermine British credibility.
There is allways the possibility of catching them at sea. Major naval exercises were not exactly secret and a surprise attack on a fleet at sea that is not expecting real action would be a possibility.
 

AdA

Wolf1965 said:
Both Kiel and Wilhelmshaven are very hard to attack, especially if you want to do it "out of the blue" with what Fisher had in his cupboard.

Actually it might prevent the US from joining if it were attempted at all.
Click to expand...


Sure. The wise thing to do is to blockade them by interdicting the UK/Norway passage by distant blockade as in OTL. Being sunk in harbour in a surprise attack is arguably the most useful thing the High Seas Fleet could do for germany, since it would provide a causus belly that gave them the moral high ground and a strong sense of national outrage.

But if Britain acted alone, and France and Russia did nothing, and actually regretted the whole thing in public while LOLing in private, could Germany invade France to respond to a British attack?
And if not, how would they reply?
 

AdA

Aber said:
By invading Belgium of course:p
Click to expand...

Adding a war with France (if they moved through) and therefore Russia to a war with Britain, without causus belli regarding the French?

Was Germany's only possible response to a British attack a general European War?

And was a general war the inevitable consequence of such an attack, regardless of the chosen date for it?

If so, the King was right and Fisher was having a not very sane moment.
 

matzeskatze

It would undermine (I mean destroy) British credibility in every case. The unprovoked attack on the German HSF is nothing but an act of war.
 

AdA

matzeskatze said:
It would undermine (I mean destroy) British credibility in every case. The unprovoked attack on the German HSF is nothing but an act of war.
Click to expand...


And only justifiable with massive hindsight as a means to bypass OTL WW1.

But for the generation that discussed preemptive nuclear strikes during the cold war, the moral implications of an attack on warships seem very limited.

Unlikely and implausible. But as a tactical problem, how to aproach it?
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
AdA said:
If so, the King was right and Fisher was having a not very sane moment.
Click to expand...

Given the way Fisher spoke, and wrote, I consider his statement to be entirely for public relations and to frighten the German's. He would have known that to attack Wilhelmshaven would be incredibly difficult.
 

historyfool

AdA said:
And only justifiable with massive hindsight as a means to bypass OTL WW1.

But for the generation that discussed preemptive nuclear strikes during the cold war, the moral implications of an attack on warships seem very limited.

Unlikely and implausible. But as a tactical problem, how to aproach it?
Click to expand...
Attacking Wilhelmshaven seems basically impossible to me.

For capital ships it would mean to enter the rather narrow 25 km long Innenjade at least partially. They will be spotted early upon entering it and be in a position where they can´t really maneuver. And unless they are prepared to level the entire city they have to come really close, since the port is in the middle of it. The best result of such an attack is taking the Germans out while loosing the own capital ships.

For light craft the approach is less of a problem, but then what? Most of the ships will be in the port itself and they won´t get into it through the locks. Remember Wilhelmshaven hadn´t a tidal harbour until the late 30s.

An air attack is unlikely to be envisioned and even if it is it won´t really destroy the fleet with Great War technology. The port basins aren´t all that large and as said in the middle of the city, thus torpedo bombers would have an extremely hard time to drop their weapons, while bombs are imprecise and too light in the time period.

Kiel might be easier to attack, but then again it was only the secondary port and of course the Germans will be already suspicious if the RN enters the Baltic Sea in force and without announcement.
 

Tallil2long

matzeskatze said:
Some problems:
- the German Naval Laws were a reaction on the rising status of Germany and rather undiplomatic British comments in time of the Boer Wars
- the German coast is not suiteble for something like a Copenhagen, as the approaches are narow and tidaly influenced
Click to expand...

The Naval Laws were a response to the 1897 threat by Francis Bertie to blockade Germany if she didn't knuckle under regarding the Transvaal. As such, it was a legitimate aspiration by Germany to gain the clout required to be taken seriously by British diplomacy.

The British resented the German effort because they wanted unchallenged power at sea so that they could dictate rather than negotiate. Frankly, I think some things would've worked out better if Britain had been compelled to regard other nations' interests in this manner. A nation which feels strong enough to dictate is a real danger to peace.
 

Tallil2long

DaveB said:
Difficult to see how the High Seas Fleet can be attacked in harbour without using torpedo bombers. Is it possible to delay the start of WW1 until they are available? General opinion seems to be that everyone was spoiling for a fight in 1914 and war will break out PDQ whether or not the attempt on Franz Ferdinand succeeds.

Still, Fisher's Follies designed and built as aircraft carriers, c. 1920? What, and when, was the earliest effective torpedo bomber? Sounds like a possible TL.

Whoops, forgotten about the Sopwith Cuckoo (if I ever knew), and that the RN had a plan to attack the High Seas Fleet in harbour with carrier aircraft in 1918/19. So OTL, the capability was virtually there. If war doesn't break out until later, the pace of development might be slower, though the British were trying to develop air-dropped torpedoes and aircraft to carry them even before 1914. Not sure I've seen a thread for a delayed WW1 on here, but I expect there are some :)
Click to expand...

If Russia doesn't get walloped in 1904 by Japan, she might retain an Eastern focus longer, thus potentially delaying WW1. But without WW1, I question whether aviation would've developed to the point of torpedo bombers even by 1918.
 

Tallil2long

historyfool said:
Attacking Wilhelmshaven seems basically impossible to me.

For capital ships it would mean to enter the rather narrow 25 km long Innenjade at least partially. They will be spotted early upon entering it and be in a position where they can´t really maneuver. And unless they are prepared to level the entire city they have to come really close, since the port is in the middle of it. The best result of such an attack is taking the Germans out while loosing the own capital ships.

For light craft the approach is less of a problem, but then what? Most of the ships will be in the port itself and they won´t get into it through the locks. Remember Wilhelmshaven hadn´t a tidal harbour until the late 30s.

An air attack is unlikely to be envisioned and even if it is it won´t really destroy the fleet with Great War technology. The port basins aren´t all that large and as said in the middle of the city, thus torpedo bombers would have an extremely hard time to drop their weapons, while bombs are imprecise and too light in the time period.

Kiel might be easier to attack, but then again it was only the secondary port and of course the Germans will be already suspicious if the RN enters the Baltic Sea in force and without announcement.
Click to expand...

I think it possible that the RN could very well have neutralized the HSF by such an attack, at the price of losing numerous capital ships.

The problem is that Britain has other concerns than just the HSF. She can't afford to expend a major portion of her fleet in order to destroy just one foe. She still has an empire to maintain, and needs a strong fleet to do it. No way the British would ever lose sight of this fact.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top