WI WW1 starts in 1919
- Thread starter anarchjoe
- Start date
Emperor-of-New-Zealand
Kicked
How is this even going to happen? WWI started as a result of a century of tension between all the Great Powers. Finally the assassination of Franz Ferdinand put the final nail in the coffin and gave everyone an excuse to start their dick-waving.
Can WWI even be delayed until 1919? And would it even be the First World War? If it happens in 1919, what are the odds of WWII even occurring?
Can WWI even be delayed until 1919? And would it even be the First World War? If it happens in 1919, what are the odds of WWII even occurring?
it's not too hard to prevent the assassination of franz, with that gone the war is delayed for a little while. its likely something else would start it fairly soon after though. a delay of 5 years is not that simple.
Germaniac
Donor
No way it lasts 5 more years, the German window of opportunity was quickly closing in. Russia was industrializing at an alarming pace (yes, just goes to show how utterly pathetic it's industry was before) and their Navy was growing. The British had already won the Naval Race before the war began in OTL, the Germans never got the chance to throw in the towel, so the German navy needed to fight soon. And the French, well there the french.
There's nothing magical about 1914 and the assassination of the Hungry Ostrich wasn't pre-ordained from above. 1919 is not a particularly silly date either, though with every year the war is delayed it also probably becomes less likely, as Russia's power keeps growing compared to Germany's (and Turkey's, at least on the Black Sea). At some point, there may well be no war at all.
The best candidate for this is the Agadir crisis, by then everyone had set up their alliances, although it will probably go better for the Germans than it did OTL because the French and Russians have less time to prepare.
I think a late war would go the opposite though, Germany would be screwed. In OTL they thought France would outpace them militarily by 1916, so even in OTL they were cutting it pretty close if their estimations are correct.
Deleted member 1487
Yeah, Germany's window of opportunity would have closed and AH probably would have had a civil war in 1917 after the death of Franz Josef and the Ausgleich renegotiation. AH would be more politically stable, but less ethnically and would be torn up by their civil disturbance. Of course war could break out over the AH issues very easily, but then Germany is in trouble in many ways, but less so in others.
Actually given the interest of much in the community in a Russia-first German war plan, this is the way to get it. Germany has to support her ally as Serbia, Romania, Italy and Russia start to muscle in, while trying to hold France in the West. Britain probably stays neutral, as it has had to deal with the fall out from Ireland, and France is wracked by socialist troubles as here Germany wouldn't have declared war first and France would be the aggressor.
wiking
If Russia is developing as people feared, including the large naval programme they were starting and Germany has given up on it's challenge to the RN you might see Britain having started moving towards a pro-German stance.
Steve
If Russia is developing as people feared, including the large naval programme they were starting and Germany has given up on it's challenge to the RN you might see Britain having started moving towards a pro-German stance.
Steve
Theoretically possible, but not very likely. The British were fixed on watching the western part of Europe, just including Germany. The tensions and anxieties between Germany and Russia were not really understood. Britain always viewed Germany as a rival to Britain - and never understood that Germany was much more terrified by Russian growth than by British naval power.
The Germans had a very small window they could go to war in.
Before 1914 they'll run out of nitrates within a year and loose, and the rapid development of the Russian railway network makes the German grand strategy of knocking out France before Russia can mobilise increasingly impossible.
Before 1914 they'll run out of nitrates within a year and loose, and the rapid development of the Russian railway network makes the German grand strategy of knocking out France before Russia can mobilise increasingly impossible.
Could we have different start, with Entente starting it, not CP,seeing how they were growing relative to CP? Not well versed about constellation and what various powers wanted but could Russia industrialize to a point they would feel confident about flexing muscles against weaker powers, say they pressure Turkey into something or the other? Or disturbances in AH makes them confident enough to start playing saviour of the Slavs, trying to pressure them into something? Things deteriorate, Serbia emboldened by Russian support starts testing the waters, AH sets foot down and things go to brink of war. Germany sees no alternative but to back them, France sees this and jumps on the bandwagon, trying to avenge 1871. Britain tries to reduce German naval danger and acts billigerently but stays out of war (similar to US in Atlantic prior to december 1941). Some incident somewhere drags them into the war, or they orchestrate something in order to force naval showdown and grab German colonies.
It's possible US would stay out of it.
It's possible US would stay out of it.
Rebel
Banned
One possible POD I could see is Austria simply going right ahead and attacking Serbia rather than waiting for Germany's approval. Public and government opinion of the Serbs was generally against them, so Austria could have gotten away with it if they had acted quickly. It's not a surefire thing, but they had a good chance of it. Russia isn't guaranteed to support Serbia, what with its involvement against Bulgaria during the Balkan War just last year, and may even quietly approve Austria's actions so long as they don't go too far.
Deleted member 1487
It is unlikely, but possible that Russia goes to 'help' Hungary in 1917 by supporting the break up of AH if/when violence breaks out over the Ausgleich renewal. I suppose one could put off tensions until 1919, but the results would be immediate in 1917 IMHO if violence was going to occur over the issue. I don't know though if France would support aggression in this case because they would have trouble getting Britain on their side and a lot of domestic issues by participating in an aggressive war. Germany would seriously be pushing to get the situation under control and Britain would probably assist because they don't want Russia getting stronger of Europe to get more unbalanced by AH breaking up, especially as Germany may well pick up Austria, Bohemia, and Moravia, which would make them that much wealthier and stronger. Of course then Germany is sandwiched between two strong enemies without an ally.
In that case I could see Britain taking a pro-German stance as Russia builds up. Really the Russian-British rivalry was put on hold over the German naval scare, but after 1912 that was dying down and more traditional rivalries with France and Russia started to build again. I mean literally just started, so Germany was still the big-baddy, but within the decade Russia would be the big threat again IMHO...that is unless social unrest causes the government to fall. OTL 1914 the pressure was building on the regime to liberalize, which had the potential to turn nasty, but the war headed that off. ITTL Russia could well suffer from unrest, which prevents them from causing trouble.
Honestly if war hasn't started by 1916 then it likely won't happen until the 1920's at the earliest and then only by Russia.
Deleted member 1487
That can't happen. Russia had settled on Serbia to be their proxy and after 1908 and, with the Bosnian annexation humiliation, Russia cannot let AH get away with anything in the Balkans or lose major international prestige. As the self-appointed Pan-Slavic protector, they locked themselves into that position both internally and internationally.
AH knows this so needs German support. That didn't take long in coming either, what took so long was the ultimatum. The Hungarians were blocking it and required the Germans to assure them that Bulgaria had recovered enough to fight Serbia and threaten Romania. After crafting the letter, assuring the Hungarians, and approving the ultimatum in both parliaments then it was sent a month later. It was internal political inertia that prevented a quick response, not German support.
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1914 was a magical moment: middle way from Central Power victory towards a victory a la Phirus for Antanta.
If was one way or another was no independent Poland, no commies and no world scary guy called Stalin
With Russia alive after Central Power defeat we wouldnt see the end of Russian empire under that form.
If was one way or another was no independent Poland, no commies and no world scary guy called Stalin
With Russia alive after Central Power defeat we wouldnt see the end of Russian empire under that form.
I quoted this in full to illustrate why I enjoy this site so very much.
A few months back I posted a question asking why Austria-Hungary simply hadn't "screamed and leaped" after FF was assassinated. In several books I'd read the authors had written how the delay cost Austria-Hungary sympathy but none of those books also explained why the delay occurred.
In just a few posts, Wiking and a few others explained to me why the delay occurred, something nothing I had yet read had accomplished.
Deleted member 1487
No problem. Thanks for clarifying the workings of US loans and the role of government in 1914-1915 in that thread a little while back.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
In 1919 Germany would have lost her edge, and would know she can't fight France, Britain and Russia at once. No WW1.
David S Poepoe
Banned
I think that by 1919 Socialists would have made major inroads in both the French National Legislature and the Reichstag and there would have been increased calls for international disarmament.