President Long, could it have happened?

[Flying Dutchman]

Simple question actually. Assuming that he wouldn't have been assasinated would Long have had any chance of being elected in 1936 or 1940? Thoughts?

[mowque]

No one was beating FDR, he was too savy to let someone like that take control. FDR had a firm grip on the party by this point. Not to mention, Long was a Southern radical with limited appeal.

[Cicero]

Yes, Long could have become President had he not been assassinated. His plan was to run as a third party candidate in 1936 knowing he would lose in the hope of taking enough votes away from FDR for Alf Landon to win and then run again in 1940 when he expected to win.

[kevvy2010]

Originally Posted by Cicero

Yes, Long could have become President had he not been assassinated. His plan was to run as a third party candidate in 1936 knowing he would lose in the hope of taking enough votes away from FDR for Alf Landon to win and then run again in 1940 when he expected to win.

It's debateable on whether that plan would have worked, though I guess he would have performed less than he expected.

[Emperor Norton I]

Much like how Reagan filled the niche Nixon was filling before his political demise, I think Long could have filled the niche that FDR filled if FDR were gotten rid of in some manner. And it'd be the whole thing of where if you remove something that addresses an issue, without actually resolving that issue, you'll get a more radical thing addressing it later. Such as it was with Reagan. Such as it could be with Long.

The easy thing is generally assassination. FDR dies, Long succeeds a bumbling John Nance Garner. Then there's the thing where Long divides the vote in 1936, the GOP wins, and then when they flounder due to cutting back on the New Deal programs, Long runs in 1940 as the savior.

President Long does offer very interesting possibilities. On the one hand, he could be the man to make that Sunshine and Success ideal of the New Deal occur since he'd likely go to the bat for that school of thought more than FDR, and FDR as it was was the president who really went to the bat for that stuff out of all of our Presidents. On the other hand, he'd probably get power hungry in ways similar to, though not as crazy and paranoid like, Richard Nixon. And his extreme Social Liberalism could lead to political backlash and a conservative political resurgence greater than what followed Harry Truman. Action always lead to counteraction.

[Glass Onion]

I do not think that Huey Long was destined for the Presidency in 1935. In 1936, there is no way he could have dethroned FDR for the nomination. If he had tried, that effort would simply serve to further marginalize him within the party. And that get's to the central problem, or at least, one of many central problems for a Long Presidency. By 1935 Long and FDR did not have the best of relationships, and that bad relationship made the idea of a Long nomination all but impossible. If Long's split the vote plan had worked, which it probably would not have given the size of FDR's victory in that election, it is hard to imagine the Democrats rewarding Long with the nomination, seeing as he's the one who cost FDR reelection. If Long doesn't make that effort, or rather, if he let's someone else run in 1936 as a plausible deniable surrogate, then the chances of FDR losing in 1936 are even smaller. If FDR is re-elected in 1936, then there's no chance for a Long Presidency. Even if FDR retires, he's going to hand pick his successor, and I doubt he would pick a political rival like Long to succeed him. Also, by 1940 Long's political moment will probably have passed, even without assassination. All in all, Long surviving probably had a greater impact on Baton Rouge than it does on Washington D.C.

Granted, a Long Presidency is not impossible, with the right set of political circumstances, anyone could have been President. But his success is unlikely, and at the time of his death, next to impossible. You probably need something like having FDR die when and why Cermak did. FDR's health probably means that a successful assassination attempt would be instantly fatal, but predicting what happens when FDR dies is easier if he lives for another couple of weeks or so, so that he's inaugurated in the hospital. That way, you avoid a constitutional crisis.

But even if we presume a terrible Garner Presidency, a worse depression, and everything that goes along with that, Huey Long still has a problem to overcome. He's a southerner.

So all in all a Long Presidency is unlikely, and he'd probably be a disaster as President.

[Cash]

Long had one major advantage going into the 1936 elections, and that was Father Charles Coughlin. The priest had a nationwide radio audience in the 1930s estimated at one time at 30 million people. His listeners sent him so many dimes and quarters as donations that Coughlin became a player in the silver market. Coughlin had supported FDR in 1932 and then became disenchanted when FDR wouldn't let him be the power behind the throne. He was vicious in his criticisms and advocated FDR's defeat. FDR once wrote that Coughlin was the only opponent who truly scared him.

By 1935 Coughlin was pushing a third party that had a definite populist, national socialist bent, and Long was his man.

[The Red]

Originally Posted by kevvy2010

It's debateable on whether that plan would have worked, though I guess he would have performed less than he expected.

Yeah, after spoiling their chances of victory in 1936 I could they're going to take him back with open arms, and a third party ticket will get him nowhere.