WI Frederick Barbarossa doesn’t drown (2023 ed)

[Nuraghe]

So we briefly touched on earlier the relational power between the Papacy and the Emperor TTL, but I think it’s worth looking at now - - in the kind of geopolitical context we’ve been talking about, how is the papacy likely to develop in the 13th Century? By the time we get to the early years of the 14th Century, I’d say, if nothing else, it’s pretty unlikely we’d see a relocation to Avignon. So depending on how we answer this question, and assuming we still get the natural disasters of the 14th Century (the 1315 Famine, the Black Death in 1347, etc) - - what does this mean for the evolution of Western Christendom during this timeframe?

Well for now I can try to make a very approximate analysis ( I will remedy this later ) the first thing that will certainly change will be the relationship of power between the Pope and the Roman aristocracy ( gathered in the Senate ), with the latter probably supported by the imperials, we will be able to continue to see the pontiff eventually being ousted from Rome in alternating phases ( taking temporary refuge in neighboring villages, such as Anagni and Tivoli, although I do not completely rule out a possible escape of the pontiff towards the imperial court, in case the situation in Rome was totally out of control ) and at contrary when he manages to get the better of the nobility, they will be the ones to hide in the fortified villages in the city countryside ( the Roman castles, including the famous Palestrina dei Colonna ) with various clashes between the two factions ( both within the Aurelian walls and beyond outside them ) certainly the expansionist push towards Romagna, the Marche and Spoleto will be considerably weakened, in favor of the municipalities and imperial feudal lords or even of Sicily, the Papacy itself will be subject to important internal developments ( the push for greater internationalization of the curia, it will still happen like Otl, after all it would also be supported by the Emperor himself, given that it expands the possibilities of seeing one of his candidates elected, without the need to force the election ( creating an antipope ), probably instead of a " Frenchization " on large scale of the curia like Otl, perhaps we will see a continuation of the series of "German" Popes ( as it was in the 11th century, naturally alternating with numerous Italians and some other nationalities ), for the rest I see it as very difficult for the Pope to obtain fiefdoms outside Italy as happens in Otl ( even if technically there would be the conditions for this, without implying a sort of similar Avignon captivity ) in finally the Crusader movement will continue to be very important ( given the success of the 3rd Crusade, which demonstrated incontrovertibly what happens when " the two swords of Christianity " collaborate with each other )

 

[Geekhis Khan]

OK, per the above discussions, let's revisit Europe in the 13th-14th C. Here's some possibilities, just one of a near infinite set of possibilities, and not necessarily the most plausible, but I feel possibly the most fun:

England & France: 1200s proceed roughly parallel to OTL with the AE and Capet France coexisting, but occasionally squabbling. At some point (late 13th/early 14th C) a dynastic crisis similar to OTL's occurs and war breaks out over who rules the Frankian Throne. It will not last a hundred years. By this point the Stauffen-Guelphs have continued to consolidate power and influence in the Federalized Empire from their seat of power in Swabia and North Italy, and they back the Plantagenets, just enough not to lose, hoping to keep the Capets distracted while they push influence into Flanders and Burgundy. Eventually (late 14th C?) after interruption by the Black Death causes all kinds of soul searching ("why is God punishing us?") things come to a head when the Flemish citizens of Bruges rise up, kicking off a general revolt against Paris that Saxon mercenaries help drive out the undersized French forces (so many knights and archers are at war over Aquitaine, after all).

"Fucking Bruges," the King is heard to say.

Faced with a Roman Dagger pointed at Paris and the growing threat in Burgundy, and fearing the extinction of his realm, the Capet King, Charles the Notborne-Otelle, strikes a shocking deal. Meeting with King Henry of Aytielle, a deal is struck whereby Henry's eldest son will marry Charles's eldest daughter and the Dauphin will wed Henry's eldest daughter, the first-born male of either union to ultimately become heir to both crowns. This goes seemingly swimmingly until Henry is the first to sire a male. The Dauphin's younger brother, Phillip the Porpoise, refuses to bow to any "Anglais usurper," and is starting to rally nobles to his cause, with fears of a new war rising. Alas, after drinking much wine, Phillip falls from a high window to the cobbles below. The only witness, the Compte d'Fenestrate, testifies that Phil had "drunk much" and had "leaned dangerously out the window." The Compte rushed to grab him, but was too slow, explaining why witnesses saw his face in the window after the Prince's tragic accident. The Dauphin lamented his brother's untimely demise, though noted that it at least assured a peaceful transition for his Nephew and thus peace for the realm.

And while historians would note that the Plantagenets won the war, the Capets, they will say, won the peace. Using their skills at organization and power politics, they are instrumental in overcoming the century of bad blood and beginning the process of overcoming the cultural and linguistic challenges and consolidating the realms. It is said that King Henry has "a Plantagenet body with a Capet head". Such unity is imperative, of course, in the face of the growing Roman Threat.


Scandinavia: The growing economic and military might of the Saxon and Flemish cities, backed by the German and Roman crowns, pushes the three crowns together. At first in alliance. Eventually in Union. If they're to be anything other than vassals of the Empire, they really have little choice.


Poland: Facing succession crises and Teutonic Knights that nominally serve the Emperor as a regional proxy, the Polish crown is left with little choice but to accept tributary status with the Empire as the price of avoiding outright vassalage, the Poles seeing what's happening to the Rus as the Mongols ravage as well. While tempted to extend the borders of the Empire, the HRE has enough internal challenges between Germans, Italians, Bohemians, and Burgundians to even think about trying to assimilate Poles too, so the Poles remain de jura and de facto independent, but tributary going forward.


Rus: Beset by Mongols per OTL. Forecast cloudy with a high chance of arrows.


Hungary: subjected to Mongol raids, but strongly independent, the Hungarian Crown accepts assistance from the Western Empire, but keeps it at arm's length. The presence of the Hungarian King at the Angevin King's coronation sends a strong message.


ERE: Presuming the Laskarids take over and start implementing some reforms, the recapture of Iconium (and perhaps some other polities??) afforded by the Mongols distracting the Muslim powers buys them breathing space against the Seljuks. They take the time to rebuild the navy and army and try and reform the system. It will be a long and painful process. The plague will hit hard, with memories of Justinian's, but as the 14th C. comes to a close, the ERE is bloodied, but unbowed. And desperate to catch up with the Western Pretenders. Can they do it?


Crusader States: The Great Khagan is a Godsend, ravaging the Caliphate and the Khwarazmians alike. The CS end up in a tributary arrangement with the Horde, who could care less which of those pesky Abrahamic Faiths rules a fucking rock. Both Roman Emperors* shower the city with wealth and vie for influence.

As the Mongols Islamify, however, things Get Interesting. Seeds of a new Caliphate?

* Question: Fred II became King of Jerusalem OTL. Does this mean that Fred I became KoJ iTTL and thus the HRE is also KoJ?


Spain: Crusade and Reconquista take up most of its energy. Presumably three states, Portugal, Castile-Leon, and Aragon occupy the peninsula. P is allied with the Angevins, A is an HRE protectorate, and C-L backs the Capets, only to be caught in the middle when the Great Bargain is made.



Thoughts??

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

the Papacy itself will be subject to important internal developments ( the push for greater internationalization of the curia, it will still happen like Otl, after all it would also be supported by the Emperor himself, given that it expands the possibilities of seeing one of his candidates elected, without the need to force the election ( creating an antipope ), probably instead of a " Frenchization " on large scale of the curia like Otl, perhaps we will see a continuation of the series of "German" Popes ( as it was in the 11th century, naturally alternating with numerous Italians and some other nationalities... in finally the Crusader movement will continue to be very important ( given the success of the 3rd Crusade, which demonstrated incontrovertibly what happens when " the two swords of Christianity " collaborate with each other )

Is TTL significantly less likely to see a "Western Schism" in the 14th Century, do you think?

Thoughts??*

I don't think the Angevin rise of French "overlord" necessarily has to be that late or dramatic, but overall it looks like a very good big-picture look at the geopolitics.

Question: Fred II became King of Jerusalem OTL. Does this mean that Fred I became KoJ iTTL and thus the HRE is also KoJ?

Well that was due to his OTL marriage, which may or may not happen here; it is hypothetically possible that, like Conrad IV OTL, a monarch might claim titles in Germany, Sicily, and the Outrider all simultaneously, and possibly (getting us a little off-topic), had Conrad been crowned Emperor, there might have been precedent for subsequent Kings of Jerusalem to owe homage to the Holy Roman Emperor (when they weren't the same person). But for our purposes, that's a lot of hypotheticals away yet.

What I'm more curious about at present is religion -- does Western Christendom see the same level of factionalism in the 14th and 15th Centuries that it saw OTL? How does Islam, as a world religion, develop taking such more massive hits to their geopolitical significance than they even took around this time OTL? Things like that.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

I don't think the Angevin rise of French "overlord" necessarily has to be that late or dramatic, but overall it looks like a very good big-picture look at the geopolitics.

That late? Agreed, not necessary. That dramatic? Oh, definitely necessary! There must be shocking and dramatic defenestrations or it just isn't Medieval/Early Modern Germany!

And with knowledge "a mile wide and an inch deep" big-picture is my contribution here, as I see it.

Well that was due to his OTL marriage, which may or may not happen here; it is hypothetically possible that, like Conrad IV OTL, a monarch might claim titles in Germany, Sicily, and the Outrider all simultaneously, and possibly (getting us a little off-topic), had Conrad been crowned Emperor, there might have been precedent for subsequent Kings of Jerusalem to owe homage to the Holy Roman Emperor (when they weren't the same person). But for our purposes, that's a lot of hypotheticals away yet.

Copy, flip a coin there, then.

What I'm more curious about at present is religion -- does Western Christendom see the same level of factionalism in the 14th and 15th Centuries that it saw OTL? How does Islam, as a world religion, develop taking such more massive hits to their geopolitical significance than they even took around this time OTL? Things like that.

IIRC much of what fed the OTL Protestant Reformation had geopolitical roots as well at theological and sociopolitical ones. Black death, disillusionment, and plenty of proto-Reformationism even before the PoD. Where's Waldo? We likely still see "heretical"/"reformational" theology that runs counter to Latin Canon. A more unified HRE would probably be in a much better position to strangle any such Reformation in its cradle, with any alt-Luther meeting the same fate as Hus, I presume.

For Islam, I presume that the "twin shocks" of the second loss of Jerusalem and the scourge of the Mongols would lead to a lot of apocalyptic thinking. Perhaps more Sufi-based mysticism or more "Jihadist" revanchism. IIRC both grew iOTL after the Mongols. A bit of both? Not an Islamic history expert.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

IIRC much of what fed the OTL Protestant Reformation had geopolitical roots as well at theological and sociopolitical ones. Black death, disillusionment, and plenty of proto-Reformationism even before the PoD. Where's Waldo? We likely still see "heretical"/"reformational" theology that runs counter to Latin Canon. A more unified HRE would probably be in a much better position to strangle any such Reformation in its cradle, with any alt-Luther meeting the same fate as Hus, I presume.

Well the Waldedians certainly still exist, and while TTL might avoid a circa 1200 pope as megalomaniacal as Innocent III, that doesn’t necessarily the Church isn’t going to want to impose some discipline on these paupers. I agree that we’re still likely to see plenty of “heretical” proto-reformism as time goes on; furthermore, since metalworking and paper-making are unaffected, we’re still likely to see the Printing Revolution roughly around the same time as OTL, which is only further going to kick said “heresy” into high gear.

But you also make a good point about how a stronger Emperor changed the context here; that said, I’m less sure a more centralized HRE is enough to crush any such movement across the whole of Christendom. After all, Hus was killed, but his followers still managed to prevail in Bohemia eventually.

For Islam, I presume that the "twin shocks" of the second loss of Jerusalem and the scourge of the Mongols would lead to a lot of apocalyptic thinking. Perhaps more Sufi-based mysticism or more "Jihadist" revanchism. IIRC both grew iOTL after the Mongols. A bit of both? Not an Islamic history expert.

Certain plenty of very interesting raw material to work with…

 

[Nuraghe]

Is TTL significantly less likely to see a "Western Schism" in the 14th Century, do you think?

I don't think the Angevin rise of French "overlord" necessarily has to be that late or dramatic, but overall it looks like a very good big-picture look at the geopolitics.

Well that was due to his OTL marriage, which may or may not happen here; it is hypothetically possible that, like Conrad IV OTL, a monarch might claim titles in Germany, Sicily, and the Outrider all simultaneously, and possibly (getting us a little off-topic), had Conrad been crowned Emperor, there might have been precedent for subsequent Kings of Jerusalem to owe homage to the Holy Roman Emperor (when they weren't the same person). But for our purposes, that's a lot of hypotheticals away yet.

What I'm more curious about at present is religion -- does Western Christendom see the same level of factionalism in the 14th and 15th Centuries that it saw OTL? How does Islam, as a world religion, develop taking such more massive hits to their geopolitical significance than they even took around this time OTL? Things like that.

Let's start from your last question, that is, if the Kingdom of Jerusalem were to swear allegiance to the HRE, in reality in Otl this happens with Henry VI ( without forgetting that in 1197, he was organizing his personal expedition to Outremer, which went down in history as the Crusade of the Germans ) and finally it cannot be excluded that with Frederick I surviving and taking part in the armed pilgrimage, it probably means Conrad of Montferrat maintaining the throne ( avoiding his assassination, which would help a lot in consolidating the kingdom ), now as regards the question of the Western schism, it happened in OTL due to a series of factors which in this scenario could be completely or almost canceled out ( in particular, especially those concerning the exponential growth of French influence both in the curia and in Italy and the Great interregnum of the HRE ) therefore it is quite probable that without these important events, the evolution of the Papacy will take a completely different turn from Otl, ergo no Western schism as we know it, it is easier to imagine a continuation of the investiture struggle at a local level ( as happened in England with John I, and in Italy, for the control of the archdiocese of Milan, yet another point of conflict between the Empire and the Papacy ) with some occasional creation of an antipope

in reality the rise of a figure like Innocent III is quite natural for the development of the church in this period, the real problem would be his possible successors such as Gregory IX, Innocent IV and Boniface VIII

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

it is easier to imagine a continuation of the investiture struggle at a local level ( as happened in England with John I, and in Italy, for the control of the archdiocese of Milan, yet another point of conflict between the Empire and the Papacy ) with some occasional creation of an antipope

That does raise another interesting question -- to the extent one could say the ecclesiastical authority of Rome was further challenged and strengthened throughout OTL’s 13th Century, can we expect the same here? If not, how does that affect the church going forward?

 

[Nuraghe]

Well the Waldedians certainly still exist, and while TTL might avoid a circa 1200 pope as megalomaniacal as Innocent III, that doesn’t necessarily the Church isn’t going to want to impose some discipline on these paupers. I agree that we’re still likely to see plenty of “heretical” proto-reformism as time goes on; furthermore, since metalworking and paper-making are unaffected, we’re still likely to see the Printing Revolution roughly around the same time as OTL, which is only further going to kick said “heresy” into high gear.

But you also make a good point about how a stronger Emperor changed the context here; that said, I’m less sure a more centralized HRE is enough to crush any such movement across the whole of Christendom. After all, Hus was killed, but his followers still managed to prevail in Bohemia eventually.

Certain plenty of very interesting raw material to work with…

Then where to start, surely movements like the Otl Waldensians and the Cathars will be quickly crushed even in TTL, considering that much weaker pontiffs than Innocent III, were able to make themselves heard on these topics ( the Cathars or a similar sect, were very widespread along the Rhine, in the 1150s, but coordination between the HRE and the church successfully and quickly suppressed it locally, so I don't see why a more centralized empire would have more difficulty containing or suppressing a heresy if it is within its borders, except for any secular supporters ( possibly militarily and economically capable of resisting a possible prolonged conflict ) who favor it as an alternative to weaken Imperial control, such as Otl Protestant Reformation ) so I could see the Hussites having a more complicated time in this scenario than in Otl ( if they ever appear ), much more interesting will be the birth and development of the Franciscans and the use of the Dominicans as pontifical inquisitors in this scenario

 

[Nuraghe]

That does raise another interesting question -- to the extent one could say the ecclesiastical authority of Rome was further challenged and strengthened throughout OTL’s 13th Century, can we expect the same here? If not, how does that affect the church going forward?

Certainly the Pope's centralizing power in this scenario will be much more precarious than in Otl ( at a temporal level ) also due to a more stable imperial position in the peninsula and the greater ability of the Capitoline nobility to oppose a common political resistance, but from the from a purely religious point of view, its influence will be skyrocketing, given the success of the 3rd crusade ( which saw the participation of the most important crowns of Europe ), finally, much depends on the succession of pontiffs, given that in Otl, papal influence and power depended extremely on the political ability of whoever held the position at that time

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

much more interesting will be the birth and development of the Franciscans and the use of the Dominicans as pontifical inquisitors in this scenario

Oh yeah, both Dominic de Guzman and Francis of Assisi were alive at the point of our PoD; also (for what it’s worth) the Fourth Lateran Council is still a few years off.

Certainly the Pope's centralizing power in this scenario will be much more precarious than in Otl ( at a temporal level ) also due to a more stable imperial position in the peninsula and the greater ability of the Capitoline nobility to oppose a common political resistance, but from the from a purely religious point of view, its influence will be skyrocketing, given the success of the 3rd crusade ( which saw the participation of the most important crowns of Europe )

This is a fascinating dichotomy to think about, at least for the shorter term; likely it isn’t sustainable though. We may need to get into more nitty gritty on how the 13th Century develops, if we’re to if we want some kind of timeframe on how the decline of the papacy’s power from these great heights plays out.

finally, much depends on the succession of pontiffs, given that in Otl, papal influence and power depended extremely on the political ability of whoever held the position at that time

Of course.

 

[Nuraghe]

Oh yeah, both Dominic de Guzman and Francis of Assisi were alive at the point of our PoD; also (for what it’s worth) the Fourth Lateran Council is still a few years off.

This is a fascinating dichotomy to think about, at least for the shorter term; likely it isn’t sustainable though. We may need to get into more nitty gritty on how the 13th Century develops, if we’re to if we want some kind of timeframe on how the decline of the papacy’s power from these great heights plays out.

Of course.

In reality what really needs to be changed in the Papacy is not its purely religious influence, which can very well remain as it is, but rather its diplomatic ability to build alliances to weaken the imperial cause, even at an international level if necessary ( which which this scenario is already partially reducing ) in practice it is necessary to limit his direct political influence ( which can easily happen with a series of short-lived or politically dependent pontiffs of the Emperor, not to mention that the State of the Church itself would be strongly limited only to Lazio with some very small neighboring territorial gains, compared to the important territory over which the Pope reigned in Otl ) then once this was done, there would be no problem in supporting the Papal ambitions of control of the Catholic hierarchy at an international level, also because this would be a perfect secondary channel to influence the politics of the other kingdoms of Latin Christianity ( after all, this is what France, Spain and the Habsburgs fought for in OTL, and it is also the reason why they were almost always reluctant to see cardinals created from countries minors, given that it meant they could lose their protection over those regions, as in the case of Ireland ) it is sufficient that this is no longer associated with the political ideology of control, even temporal, of the pontiff over sovereigns ( or at least it is severely limited, so it would be enough for a hypothetical Innocent III to be succeeded by much less stable Popes, even if knowing Innocent and his policies in Otl, he would be able to get by worthily in foreign policy, even with a nerfed papal state as in this one scenario, simply focusing on internal state reforms, even trying to avoid his election or his rise in the papal administration is very complicated, because in addition to his excellent qualities he also had one more factor, he was well seen by the Roman people, which strongly favored him in the conclave )

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Thinking more about the fate of Islam and the Islamic States. Presumably the fall of Baghdad to the Mongols still happens, possibly even earlier, but where is a Caliph to go? The Seljuks are the enemy and rather "Mongoled" themselves at the moment. Even if the Khwarazmians weren't likewise Mongoled, they're Shia heretics. The Ayyubid Levant was killed in the cradle during the 3rd Crusade, and we've yet to establish the fate of Egypt. Presumably Egypt is where a rump Ayyubid Dynasty still rules?

Option a: Crusader Egypt. If Egypt has been subject of a crusade as some earlier suggested, perhaps even if only partially successful (Alexandria is captured, but not Cairo?), then that's no haven. Presumably the Caliph flees to Mecca?

Option b: Egypt remains "free". The rump Ayyubids hold on. However, the Kingdom of Jerusalem stands in the way. So the Caliph still flees to Mecca.

So, unless I'm missing something, Crusader Jerusalem leads to a Hejaz-based Rump Caliphate, irrespective of the fate of Egypt.

How this affects the religion, well, I keep thinking that at some point a new puritanical movement will arise. I mean, it's obvious that Allah has turned his face from us, so what are we doing wrong? Not pure enough? Too many khafiri influences? Too detached from the word of the Quran and Sharia? This leads me to expect something rather puritanical, radically traditionalist, and possibly anti-modern. Perhaps something that combines Almohad zeal with Hanbali traditionalism?

I'm so far out of my depth here. A tube worm on Mount Everest. Anyone? Buhler?

Either way, as the Mongols recede or Go Native in the late 13th C, you're left with a resurgent Caliphate, perhaps more puritanical and strictly traditional, returning to Baghdad and Damascus with a God-directed duty to Liberate the Holy Land from the Infidel.

"Interesting Times" ahead for the Outremer in the 14th C., I presume.

Win, lose, or draw, the ensuing Crusades will be a major distraction and money sink for the HRE and Christendom as a whole. Presumably an opportunity for the "fringe states" to push back on Roman Hegemony.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The Ayyubid Levant was killed in the cradle during the 3rd Crusade, and we've yet to establish the fate of Egypt. Presumably Egypt is where a rump Ayyubid Dynasty still rules?

To go by earlier discussion - - it seems more likely the Mamluks would establish their iwn dynasty in Egypt earlier than OTL.

How this affects the religion, well, I keep thinking that at some point a new puritanical movement will arise. I mean, it's obvious that Allah has turned his face from us, so what are we doing wrong? Not pure enough? Too many khafiri influences? Too detached from the word of the Quran and Sharia? This leads me to expect something rather puritanical, radically traditionalist, and possibly anti-modern. Perhaps something that combines Almohad zeal with Hanbali traditionalism

Im no expert either, but I can definitely see that.

Either way, as the Mongols recede or Go Native in the late 13th C, you're left with a resurgent Caliphate, perhaps more puritanical and strictly traditional, returning to Baghdad and Damascus with a God-directed duty to Liberate the Holy Land from the Infidel.


"Interesting Times" ahead for the Outremer in the 14th C., I presume.

Considering the Ilkhanate didn’t convert until 1295 OTL (after Outremer had fallen), that could potentially mean that they hold off said conversion for longer TTL; even if it’s just a little longer, it’s pretty fascinating, because it means events don’t start putting pressure in Christendom until the climate does as well (meaning there could be overlap between a new “fight for Jerusalem” and the 1315 Famine, for example).

Win, lose, or draw, the ensuing Crusades will be a major distraction and money sink for the HRE and Christendom as a whole. Presumably an opportunity for the "fringe states" to push back on Roman Hegemony.

Said “money pit” could be less bad than OTL at first, allowing imperial power to consolidate power for a time; when things get bad for the Outremer, however…

 

[kasumigenx]

I think the best bride for Otto would be Ida of Boulogne rather than Margaret of Blois, that is if Barbarossa is still interested to make Arles a separate Kingdom.

The best bride for Otto would be Scholastica of Champagne, since Theobald her ancestor is older than King Stephen.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I think the best bride for Otto would be Ida of Boulogne rather than Margaret of Blois, that is if Barbarossa is still interested to make Arles a separate Kingdom.

The best bride for Otto would be Scholastica of Champagne, since Theobald her ancestor is older than King Stephen.

The marriage of Otto and Margaret and the abdication and forced marriage of Ida both happened the same year as our PoD, so I'd say averting them is a bit unlikely here; also Scholastica was already married as of the PoD.

 

[kasumigenx]

The marriage of Otto and Margaret and the abdication and forced marriage of Ida both happened the same year as our PoD, so I'd say averting them is a bit unlikely here; also Scholastica was already married as of the PoD.

Indeed.