Early German Philippines

[Hvalrossen]

Most of the already existing threads on the topic of the Philippines becoming a German colony goes along the lines of. (1) The Philippines becomes German in 1898 instead of becoming American. This is either because the Spanish sells them to Germany in order to avoid losing the to the Americans, or it is due to a German intervention in the war, specifically in the Philippine theater. (2) Germany would lose the islands during WW1, as Japan would covet the islands and jump on the opportunity to conquer them. Which is supported by Japan actually conquering Germany's holdings in China during WW1.

If Germany had gained the Philippines in 1898, then they would only hold onto to them for 20 years assuming WW1 lasts as long as OTL. If not only 16 years as they may be lost during the first year of the war. Both numbers suggest that Germany would rule the islands for a limited time, which limits the potential impact. Therefore, I wonder if there is an earlier POD that could lead to a German Philippines.

What if Leopold of Hohenzollern becomes the king of Spain in 1868. Leading to a increased closeness between Spain and Germany. Potentially leading to or allowing the sale of the Philippines to Germany in or around 1868?

Alternatively, what if Germany is appeased by being allowed to buy the Philippines in or around 1868 due to Leopold not becoming the new king of Spain?

In both these scenarios the Philippines would spend significantly more time under German rule. How might the Philippines be affected by being under German rule from 1868 or 1870 to circa 1914?
How large a demographic impact might this have on the Philippines? I imagine that a significant German minority might be established on the Philippines. Consisting of colonial bureaucrats, and economic migrants. The economic migrants would arrive to take jobs with favorable pay and/or gain ownership in land and businesses. Leading to the Philippines perhaps being more industrialized than in OTL. Since the Germans would not willingly reduce their living standards i imagine that the maximum German population would be capped at 15%, but more likely stand between 5% and 10%. There would also exist a mixed community. However, the biggest potential demographic impact would be whether immigration from China was more significant or smaller than in OTL. The potential for Japanese immigration would also be a key factor in the demographics of the Philippines, with both a economic and a political impact.
If a significant German descended community forms in the Philippines, and the German authorities implements a large scale system of education. Then the German language may become entrenched in the Philippines as first language and/or a second language.
Due to their larger size, and dispersed geography, I imagine that the Germans would be able to defend the Philippines for a significantly longer period of time than they dis for Qingdao/Tsingtao. With the Philippines being a target of allied British/French/Russian/Japanese raiding in addition to place of conquest. However, the Germans would also have had a longer time to entrench in the islands, and a larger territorial depth to hold them off. The Philippines would be a key naval base from which the Germans would raid allied shipping in the Asia Pacific region.

If the Germans ruled the Philippines, then a expansion into North Borneo could be possible. The colony was established by a German national with British support. In this scenario he would instead receive German support. However, if the Germans had established a colony in North Borneo. Then they may be more interested in getting the Spanish Philippines. This could be another POD for how the Philippines became a German colony.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Super unlikely scenario, in quite a few ways.
While province sellings have long enticed people's imaginations, they are mostly an US-centered anomaly, often basically a bribe to make the deal happen faster and under legitimate channels (Alaska, Louisiana) or to compensate for already taken territory (Cuba, Philippines), but regardless, all they have in common (with the Gadsden Purchase and the German acquisition of Spanish Micronesia) is the fact the other government is so cash strapped it can be persuaded to just entertain the idea of selling off what are, in the grand scheme of things, fairly small and unprofitable areas.
So in this case, Germany would have to lean so much on Spain that it just decided to sell the whole of the Philippines, which seems super unlikely given their size, relative prestige, and general state in 1868. And of course, in 1868 and environs Germany has other problems, namely Unification to complete. It'll need a couple decades before it can be interested in colonies.
Now, the US takeover of the Philippines was tacitly okay'd by Britain, but a German one would be far less appreciated. I'm not saying it's a dealbreaker, but it's an unmentioned hurdle that needs to be overcome. Regardless, there's no way the Germans can hit even 1.5% of the Philippines' population in 1890 - almost 100k out of the 6.4M natives - given the distance involved and the general lack of success of contemporary settler programs.
I guess the Japanese would be more than happy to bloody themselves freeing the Philippines in WW1 - assuming the change in priorities doesn't lead to a working relationship between the UK and Germany and a shift in the alliances - but that's pretty much the a late ring in this chain of changes.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

How might the Philippines be affected by being under German rule from 1868 or 1870 to circa 1914?

In this scenario of the Philippines coming “under German rule from 1868 or 1870”, it would Prussia who would be the colonial master as this time period pre-dates the establishment of the united German Empire.

In this case, assuming that the Franco-Prussian War still occurs in this ATL, the Prussians would probably only rule the Philippines for a little more than 2 years before the French would have taken the islands from them.

If the Wikipedia article on the French Navy is reliable, and I think it is in this case, the French would have quickly captured a German-held Philippines from their near-by French Indochina colony.

In the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, the Navy imposed an effective blockade of Germany, but events on land proceeded at such a rapid pace that it was superfluous. Isolated engagements between French and German ships took place in other theaters, but the war was over in a matter of weeks.

 

[Nivek]

Unless the Spanish sell them, or just got it from a trade? Spain was holding their 'pride' in their little colonials holdings

 

[ghappy1000]

Earliest possible pod would be the British deciding to reward Prussia for aligning with Britain in the Seven Years War by deciding to cede the Philippines to Prussia instead of to Britain or to Spain and news of the Philippines' capture in the Seven Years War by Britain reaching that war's Treaty of Paris on time in 1763 to allow Britain to cede the Philippines to Prussia instead of to Britain or to Spain in 1763. That would give you a Prussian Philippines which can become a German Philippines with a Prussian and German colonization of the Philippines and with a butterfly net until and including 1871.

 

[AsukaEMP]

Earliest possible pod would be the British deciding to reward Prussia for aligning with Britain in the Seven Years War by deciding to cede the Philippines to Prussia instead of to Britain or to Spain and news of the Philippines' capture in the Seven Years War by Britain reaching that war's Treaty of Paris on time in 1763 to allow Britain to cede the Philippines to Prussia instead of to Britain or to Spain in 1763. That would give you a Prussian Philippines which can become a German Philippines with a Prussian and German colonization of the Philippines and with a butterfly net until and including 1871.

But Britain only had affective control over Manilla and Prussia had no real navy. So Prussia would have only been given Manilla and would have lost it almost immediately to the pro-Spanish resistance.