Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

[King of Danes]

Very interesting update! Nice to see that we didn’t have an Iranian hostage situation on our hands here. This should hopefully be good press for Carey come November midterms

What exactly transpired next is largely unclear, even today; upon the reunification of Korea, attempts by CIA analysts to reconstruct records in former DPRK archives of 5/13/82 were unsuccessful, with a suspicion that Kim Il-sung purged officers involved with the incident and had documentation destroyed.

This is very welcome foreshadowing too! Bye bye insane hermit kingdom

 

[Gar48]

Oh boy, North Korea is entering a power sruggle while China and the Soviet Union are watching.

Hopefully it will be a small purge after a failed coup rather than a full blown civil war

 

[KingSweden24]

What was DEFCON at when this happened?

Situation like this isn’t quite big enough to trigger a DEFCON shift imo - this is more like the USN sailing through the Taiwan Strait just to remind the PRC they can

Very interesting update! Nice to see that we didn’t have an Iranian hostage situation on our hands here. This should hopefully be good press for Carey come November midterms

This is very welcome foreshadowing too! Bye bye insane hermit kingdom

Like i said, history isn’t ending in this TL’s 1990s

(And nothing of value was lost)

Oh boy, North Korea is entering a power sruggle while China and the Soviet Union are watching.

Hopefully it will be a small purge after a failed coup rather than a full blown civil war

We’re a long ways off from the roosters hatching on this one

 

[naraht]

Reunification of Germany was helped by the fact that the East Germans were the richest of the former Soviet Bloc, and had access to West German culture through radio, etc. Financially, the West Germans are still paying for reunification.

Reunification of Korea in the 1990s would probably be even worse in terms of the financial difference. The comparison that I've heard is that every in South Korea who wouldn't count as homeless is in better shape than 95% of the PRK population and that includes some of the PRK officer corps.

 

[Reisen Storm]

What exactly transpired next is largely unclear, even today; upon the reunification of Korea, attempts by CIA analysts to reconstruct records in former DPRK archives of 5/13/82 were unsuccessful, with a suspicion that Kim Il-sung purged officers involved with the incident and had documentation destroyed.

Damn, I'm surprise North Korea disappears given that the Warsaw pact and the Soviet Union still exist to give it life.

 

[Maxthecat]

I think Boomers who love Reagan IRL would love Carey ITTL

 

[Seandineen]

Quite right. Could we see a counterpart to Grenada ITTL?

 

[naraht]

Damn, I'm surprise North Korea disappears given that the Warsaw pact and the Soviet Union still exist to give it life.

The PRK is at the end of a *very* *very* long line of Supply, which can functionally be severed *very* easily at the Russia/PRK border. PRChina comes within 10 miles of the ocean on the Tumen river. There is currently *one* bridge. China could *easily* have 10 times the forces of the USSR in country in the first day. However even then things get complicated. 95%+ of the Korean border with China and the USSR follow two rivers that flow down from Paektu Mountain. (welcome to the anti-Poland)

 

[SultanArda]

(And nothing of value was lost)

Doğu Perinçek and James Dresnok disagrees.
But everyone else rejoices.

Spoiler: The Explanation for the First Part of the Joke

​

 

[Reisen Storm]

The PRK is at the end of a *very* *very* long line of Supply, which can functionally be severed *very* easily at the Russia/PRK border. PRChina comes within 10 miles of the ocean on the Tumen river. There is currently *one* bridge. China could *easily* have 10 times the forces of the USSR in country in the first day. However even then things get complicated. 95%+ of the Korean border with China and the USSR follow two rivers that flow down from Paektu Mountain. (welcome to the anti-Poland)

You would think the soviets wouldn’t want American bases near Vladivostok since that’s their warm port. I thought the soviets would prop up the north koreans if to avoid that scenario.

 

[Thoresby]

what was intended to be a forty-eight hour mission that would be re-supplied by Stratotanker

Minor detail but the maximum operational endurance of the SR-71 is believed to be about 12 hours and no more than 1 "high speed dash" per mission. 48 hours would definitely be impossible.

Also more broadly I am surprised that the US thinks they are on stronger ground than during the Peublo incident, as SR-71's were know for routinely violating the airspace of Eastern Bloc nations and the more likely comparison would be with Gary Power's U-2 shootdown.

 

[Gar48]

You would think the soviets wouldn’t want American bases near Vladivostok since that’s their warm port. I thought the soviets would prop up the north koreans if to avoid that scenario.

Unless NK really fucks up or the Soviets end up being too busy with the collapse of the PRC

 

[naraht]

You would think the soviets wouldn’t want American bases near Vladivostok since that’s their warm port. I thought the soviets would prop up the north koreans if to avoid that scenario.

Other than heading north along the Soviet Coast, the Americans can already control access to leaving Vladivostok. This is *somewhat* similar to the Soviet Navy's issues with NATO membership of Estonia (and later Finland) in regards to St. Petersburg. But the Soviet Surface Navy will have a short life in the even of a war regardless.

 

[Knightmare]

Minor detail but the maximum operational endurance of the SR-71 is believed to be about 12 hours and no more than 1 "high speed dash" per mission. 48 hours would definitely be impossible.

Yeah, it's not just the plane, it's the crew. You have hardlocked flight hours for a reason. The U-2s flights pushed those to the extreme, let alone flying at Mach 3.

 

[KingSweden24]

Reunification of Germany was helped by the fact that the East Germans were the richest of the former Soviet Bloc, and had access to West German culture through radio, etc. Financially, the West Germans are still paying for reunification.

Reunification of Korea in the 1990s would probably be even worse in terms of the financial difference. The comparison that I've heard is that every in South Korea who wouldn't count as homeless is in better shape than 95% of the PRK population and that includes some of the PRK officer corps.

Yeah, a mid-90s reunification of Korea is almost a Korea-screw at that point

I think Boomers who love Reagan IRL would love Carey ITTL

Prrhaps

Quite right. Could we see a counterpart to Grenada ITTL?

I’ll need to research how Grenada happened in the first place

Minor detail but the maximum operational endurance of the SR-71 is believed to be about 12 hours and no more than 1 "high speed dash" per mission. 48 hours would definitely be impossible.

Also more broadly I am surprised that the US thinks they are on stronger ground than during the Peublo incident, as SR-71's were know for routinely violating the airspace of Eastern Bloc nations and the more likely comparison would be with Gary Power's U-2 shootdown.

Welp; that’ll need a retcon!

I mean more along the lines that they are not actively fending off North Vietnam and the domestic antiwar movement in the wake of the Tet Offensive; beyond several specops theaters in Latin America, the US is broadly at peace

Other than heading north along the Soviet Coast, the Americans can already control access to leaving Vladivostok. This is *somewhat* similar to the Soviet Navy's issues with NATO membership of Estonia (and later Finland) in regards to St. Petersburg. But the Soviet Surface Navy will have a short life in the even of a war regardless.

good point on the Baltic comparison

 

[naraht]

Yeah, a mid-90s reunification of Korea is almost a Korea-screw at that point

Prrhaps

I’ll need to research how Grenada happened in the first place

Welp; that’ll need a retcon!

I mean more along the lines that they are not actively fending off North Vietnam and the domestic antiwar movement in the wake of the Tet Offensive; beyond several specops theaters in Latin America, the US is broadly at peace

good point on the Baltic comparison

Still better than a unification today. And CFR has a nice graph on the historical GDP over time for the Koreas at https://world101.cfr.org/global-era-issues/development/two-koreas-two-development-policies-0

 

[KingSweden24]

Still better than a unification today. And CFR has a nice graph on the historical GDP over time for the Koreas at https://world101.cfr.org/global-era-issues/development/two-koreas-two-development-policies-0

It’s remarkable how ROK just takes off in 1987ish on that chart - right around when Chun Doo-hwan started to finally release his grip on power.

A mid-1990s reunification, especially ahead of something like the 1998 baht crisis, would probably cripple South Korean growth for a decade.

 

[King of Danes]

It’s remarkable how ROK just takes off in 1987ish on that chart - right around when Chun Doo-hwan started to finally release his grip on power.

A mid-1990s reunification, especially ahead of something like the 1998 baht crisis, would probably cripple South Korean growth for a decade.

So, ideally the Koreas reunite in the mid 80s before the gap becomes too wide?

 

[KingSweden24]

So, ideally the Koreas reunite in the mid 80s before the gap becomes too wide?

In an ideal world, sure, but this is not an ideal world

 

[King of Danes]

In an ideal world, sure, but this is not an ideal world

Truuuth. Still better than otl for now